Breeders Cup Close Up And Monmouth Thoughts

[Stevie Belmont]

This is a day I have looked forward to the day it was announced the BC was going to be at Monmouth Park. As a player, you cannot ask for a better day of betting. It will rain. It will rain a lot, but if you get lemons, make lemonade. The BC will never be in New Jersey again. This is the greatest day in New Jersey racing history, not only racing history, but over all history. Monmouth Park is my favorite track for so many reasons. The memories will last a lifetime. From the friends I have made over the years to the great horses I have witnessed in person.

Realizing that tomorrow the greatest day of racing will be there is a surreal feeling. No other track that I have been to, and I have not been to that many has the coziness of Monmouth Park. You are not only a fan, but you are part of the races. You are so close to the horses and the people that are the lifeblood of the sport, not only are you going to the races, you are part of the races.

Taking that walk from the parking lot to the grandstand entrance is the best walk I can take. The smell of the ocean is present. No matter what issues one may have in life, it is all forgotten as I take that walk. The old time charm of the place is wonderful. Part of me wanted to go to the Breeders Cup, but the other part does not want to see what they have done to the place for the week. I do not need to be there to be there. Part of that place will be with me forever even if im not there I am. I am always there. The picnic area is the best place in the world to be in the summer. The smell of horses and BBQ is unique smell that I love. To see all those Picnic tents ripped out is a bit depressing. I am proud that the racing world will focus on my hometown track, even if it is for a few days. They will see how wonderful it is. It is not as famous or well known as other tracks, but it is as every bit as beautiful and history filled as any track in the world.

I can hear Frank Sinatra’s Summer Wind right now as I type this. Will it be played tomorrow...Ill know I’ll hear it.

As for the racing goes,…The conditions throw another curveball to the handicapper to consider from the handicapping perspective. How have horses performed on an off track, or yielding turf course is key. Also paying attention to pedigree is also something one will have to consider. It can be a daunting task playing the Breeders Cup. Add the miserable weather, and you have a real puzzle on your hands. Here is my look on how things could go down. Remember class always rises…

BC Close Up

Juvenile Fillies- Indian Blessing is the deserving favorite. She has won both her starts in smashing style, drawing off both times. She has never run on an off track however. Tomorrow she will face the best field she has ever seen. There are some threats to her. A horse that I can see running a big race is Izarra. Her pedigree says she will relish the sloppy conditions. McAnally will have her ready to run a big race. Smarty Deb is undefeated and ships in from Emerald Downs, not exactly the profile of a BC Champ, but she has improved with each start and has worked well over this strip, and has beaten colts. She could very well be calked up and that will help her. She is a horse that should be considered. Proud Spell has an excellent wet track pedigree on the top side and has superb stalking ability. She is another who figures to be in the mix in at the end.



Bomber- A to the Croft adds blinkers for the first time and draws way outside. She has placed in her last two races, which were GI’s. Also placed at the distance. She should be closer this time. Grace Anatomy based on pedigree alone is a horse to consider. First time slop and she should enjoy the off going from off the pace. She will be a solid price as well.



Juvenile Colts-War Pass will be the favorite here after his blazing front running win, but a short price might not be the best bet, should handle the off track well as he will be calked and has the immortal Mr. Prospector on the bottom. Kodiak Cowboy is the most experienced horse of the field. His sire Posse excelled on an off track. Should get a good stalking trip. Z Humor drew the 1 post and that could be an issue as the inside has not been that good over the past few days. He ran a solid race in the Champagne. Mott adds blinkers and has every right to move forward off his last race. Pyro was closing in on War Pass and the extra distance should help him, but his closing kick might not have looked as good as it really was. If he improves a threat. Wild Again on the bottom means an off track should not be an issue.



Bomber- Wicked Style is the only horse in the race to have won at the distance over Keenelands polytrack. Showed nice speed over the poly track. Post 13 is not ideal, but he won from post 12 last time in a game effort in the Breeders Cup Futurity.



Fillies and Mares- The most accomplished girl in the race is Honey Rider. She ran third in last years Filly and Mare behind two Ouija Board and Film Maker, both of which would be favored her if the were in it. She has also shown she can run with the top grass colts. The concern is the yielding turf conditions. On a class note, she is tops in that department. Passage of Time is a three-year-old shipping in from Europe who has a lot of class. She won the GI Criterium de Saint Cloud over a soft course which is plus. In addition, has defeated the boys. Second start since September 16 and should run a big race for Juddmonte farms. Nashoba’s Key is undefeated in 7 career starts, and that has to count for something. She also defeated possible favorite Hystericalady in June. The biggest question she has to answer is if she will handle a yielding turf course. Danzon ran a strong third to top male turfer Sky Conqueror in the Turf Classic at Churchill. I like the fact she showed a bog is okay in her book. Consider.



Bomber- Argentina has shown she likes a soft or yielding turf course. She has run behind some very good fillies and mares in the past, but her proven ability to run over a bog is a plus. She will be a price and is well worth using here.



Sprint- One of the more difficult races on the card to handicap, as it is every year. I liked Smokey Stover a lot at the beginning of the week, but drawing the rail is a big negative foe me. He looked like he would get a solid stalking trip, but his chances have been compromised with the post. Has a huge Tomlinson figure. Midnight Lute is coming off the monster speed figure he received in the Forego. At a short price, I would like to beat him. Will he be able to duplicate that race? He has one once at 6 furlong in two tries. The fastest horse in the race and a horse who is the track record holder at 6 panels at Monmouth Park is Idiot Proof. He so fast an idiot can ride him and win. Good post makes him a legitimate threat. Kellys Landing the winner of the Golden Shaheen and a one-time track record holder at Churchill Downs comes in off a long layoff, but has class. Another positive is that he has one on an off track. A user either on top or under at a nice price.



Bomber- We have two bombers in this race. Both will be big odds and both have some nice things to like. Commentator is 3 for 3 on an off track and comes in off a long layoff. Would think it is a negative, but this horse has run the best races of his life on an off track. He is fast and you cannot ignore him. Forefathers drew the far outside. He is cutting back to 6 furlongs after his strong run in the Jerome. Third start off the layoff and shows he can handle an off track. This guy has won on a sloppy track as he has super off track pedigree. Mott is very dangerous and this guy will be 40/1 or better



The Mile- Jeremy ran right behind the probable favorite in the race Excellent Art in the Sussex Stakes in August. His last try was not the best, but should be ready to run a big race in second start off the layoff. He also finished ahead of George Washington who at the time was one of the top milers in the world. Host is an accomplished miler. He is a 4-time winner at the distance and has a strong closing kick. I expect him to once again make a bid late tomorrow. Should be a good price. Excellent Art ships in for O’Brien and sports great form. He just missed beating older in his last two. Also has shown a proven ability to run over a soft or yielding course. My Typhoon takes on the boys when she could have run in the fillies and mares. She cuts back to a mile where she is even better. Knowing it Mott and a horse that has jumped up to the next level tells me she is a horse not to be ignored. She ran a solid race on a yielding course at Saratoga and she is much better as a racehorse now. If she does not stumble, she might go all the way. Front-runners on the yielding course do not seem to have an edge, but respect these connections. Nobiz Like Shobiz cuts back to a mile for the first time on grass. Cannot deny the fact he has a mammoth ground-covering stride. The cutback could benefit him greatly. The turf condition is a huge question.



Bomber- Trippi’s Storm cut back to a mile after running against some of the best turf routers in the country. Ran a bang up Kelso mowing them down late. If he handles the off turf and a return to that race, figures to be a threat at a price. Loved his last race.



The Distaff- I looked at this race for a while and still find it one of the hardest races of the day. I generally prefer to like the older fillies to the three year olds, but this year is tough. Balance is a live sleeper. Her last was a race she needed. She finished ahead of possible favorite Hystericalady in July. Well rested and could be an upsetter here. Lady Joanne the Alabama winner a superb off track pedigree. Has speed tractable speed and is taking the same poly to dirt route as Street Sense. You would have to figure Nafzger has her ready to run big one. Lears Princess has improved with each start and will make her bid as she always does, consistent and game as they come. Hystericalady ran over Monmouth course and ran away from them with ease. She sports a win on an off track and figures to go right to the lead. Tough post. Hollendorfer has pointed for this race for several months. Tough race on paper and there could be a speed duel in this affair.



Bomber- Teammates last race she showed a new dimension coming off the pace on the Poly track. A nice fast 1:12 work since and will be calked and ready to go.



The Turf- The favorite here will be Dylan Thomas who won the Arc 3 weeks ago and had to work for it. No horse that has won the Arc has come back to win the BC Turf. Little doubt Dylan Thomas one of the best turfers in the world, if not the best. One might wonder if he can run another huge race at a 1 ½ half in two weeks. O’Brien has said that a yielding course is not his best surface. I am a little worried about that. Better Talk Now is a BC Turf champion. Comes in off the layoff and that should not be an issue. He has has fired off the layoff in the past. In addition, we know he loves a yielding course. Respect this old warhorse. We had him as our bomber last year with Red Rocks our top pick and it was a sweet zacta. English Channel would have been my top pick possibly on a form course. Not going to happen and I think the condition of the track will hurt his chances. Red Rocks is the defending BC Turf Champion, but does not seem to have the same form as he did last year. With that said would have to think with his back class he could run a big one. I Liked him much more last year.



Bomber- Grand Couturier winner of the Sword Dancer showed he had some class mowing down English Channel. Ran a solid 4th behind Rail Link and Red Rocks last year at Longchamp. Not certain he prefers a yielding course, but on a class level not totally impossible.



The Classic- This is another difficult race. Street Sense is coming into this like a horse on a mission. Distance is a proven commodity. Horse is taking the same route winning the derby off the poly to dirt route. Nafzger had a plan form day one and everything he has done has worked. Horse has never been on a sloppy track. And the rail has not been good. Borel might have to rethink his plans. Big Curlin wore down Lawyer Ron in the 1 ¼ Jockey Gold Cup proving he is not a has been. He might have the most talent of any horse in the race. He is bred strongly top and bottom for slop. Did his last take to much out of him…He has proved in the past he can run races back to back. Distance no issue. Any Given Saturday won the Haskell here with an explosive stretch run. Horse has never won at the distance and he should like the off track. Horse owns a big Tomlinson figure. Hard Spun is the fastest horse in the race and showed his gameness fending off First Defense in the Kings Bishop. Looks to more mature. He will go to the front and or stalk Lawyer Ron. Dangerous if he gets away turning for home. He was my derby pick and he is better now. Distance is the biggest concern for him.



Bomber- George Washington…Failed as a stud so he is back. Ran an admirable 6th in his first try on dirt in last years classic finishing behind possibly the three best dirt horse in the world at the time. He was also 6 wide. His effort was not as a nearly as bad a race as one would think. He is a 4-year-old now and Danzig on top says slop should be welcomed.



Pick 3’s offer value with the ability to spread and cost. Keying horses on top with prices under is important. If there was ever a good day to utilize the all button, this is it. Especially with a few horse that look solid in the top spot. And of course who ever you like, the win bet is always a good thing.



Bombers can be used as saver plays as well or underneath horses. Or on top….What ever you like…Just need one to make the day….

[Monmouth Matt]

stevie,

I don't know you, but you can sure hang out with my crew anytime! MTH...BEL...SAR... if you can't enjoy yourself with great racing buddies (regardless of the weather) at these spots, then you really are missing the whole game. By 2 pm tomorrow the weather will clear and MTH will shine! Hey...it wasn't bad today!

[FOS]

hi Stevie Belmont

Thanks for sharing your thoughts, insights, observations and experiences re Monmouth Park...clearly it's become a part of who you are.

Your words painted a beautiful picture.

Enjoyed your handicapping perspectives too.

Respectfully

[mikec]

Hey Stevie,
Couldn't agree with you more and the landscape you portrayed complete with visuals and scents is dead on. What a wonderful family outing each and every time we go there.
BUT , if Monmouth can pull this off under these conditions, and thus far they are in every category, the Grand Dame deserves to host the event again in the future although I understand what you're saying.

[Barbaro06]

Hey Stevie, thanks for the thoughts...I have been told time and time again that Monmouth is a beautiful track. Enjoy the day for all it's worth!