Debate Question... Does Kentucky decide who is and who isn't

[bdw0617]

I've been doing alot of thinking about this topic recently and it's a very good question I'm sure some of you have more insight (hell probably everyone here) than I do. But it seems to me that if "the powers that be" decide that "blank horse" is the next hot sire, there is very little that will stand in the way of that happening. From the jump, they are stood at the best farms, given the best mares, given the best chances to succeed.

Whereas some horses are not given a chance at all and because they are given bad books, they produce unwanted foals, which proves what they thought in the first place

I love AP Indy, but honestly, he was given a golden path to success. By Seattle Slew, and out of a Very good female family, stood probalby the best farm we have going today, and given the best book of mares one can dream of, the results were a forgone conclusion.

Look at Unbridled's Song. his numbers aren't GREAT. he gets runners but overall he brings down his mares. But this is antoher horse, by a beloved sire, Great race horse, standing at a good farm, given great mares, etc. they are manufacturing a great sire if that makes any sense

Look at invasor, candy stripes, leroi, etc. horses that people decided for one reaosn or antoher (not so much with leroi) that they werent' "kentucky stallions". Candy Stripes offspring will hit the track next year, candy stripes will have to be a hell of a sire to be a top american sire because no one supports him.

[Toccet02]

I'd agree, sure. With the concept if not the actual claims about UBSong (I don't know either way). Self-fulfilling prophecy. Seems there are lots of folks who jump to breed to the big names with the best mares and ignore truly sound, talented, and/or fertile bloodlines because they may not have been promoted enough.

[winds]

That's why you have commercial stallions and stallions to breed to race. Personally I think that they should prove to be a sire of racehorses before they can command big stud fees. Not which ones are fashionable, but which ones sire actual racehorses.

Until that happens, we will have the double standard............

winds

[jellac]

Farm/Connections providing a stallion - even the regional stallion - with a goodly number of mares that actually have a shot at throwing a runner/winner - have everything to do with that stallion being 'successful' in terms of value. By that I mean a stallion who gets enough 'quality' mares to pay his way as a stallion while also getting enough foals/good enough foals to uphold his rankings from foals to race. This is true whether in Kentucky or in Texas (you can read "Texas" as "Timbuktu" if you like as far as racing is concerned these days.) Now will such 'regional' stallions' offspring ever pull down the top record setting bid at Sartoga or Keeneland yearling sales - I doubt it, but if having a chance of making back your investment is your measurement of being successful it can be found outside of Kentucky by looking for these elements: 1) a good sire candidate in the the stallion pedigree-wise, 2) a stallion prospect that was successful at the track/winning stakes and at least Graded Stakes placed during his career, 3) a stallion prospect whose pedigree and breeding traits fits well with local mare population/racing conditions, 4) the committment of mare support from 'share holders' that is about quality not just numbers coupled with a 5) committment not to flood the local auctions with his first and second crop of yearlings. In other words investors in the stallion who trust the outfit/connections promoting him be on the same footing as the share-holders as far as 'committment' goes.

Two "local" cases in point -

1) Hadif - Owned by and stood his career at Clarence Scharbauer's Valor Farm, Pilot Point, Texas. Started at a modest stud fee his fee did increase as the case for his being a solid sire of early developing 2YO's with enough speed to often be at the top of their crop within the state-bred program. Sometimes a bit better. The Scharbauer's/Valor Farm are wise in choosing to stand new, unproved stallions who's racing ability and pedigree fit well with Texas' dirt and speed oriented racing. They do not stand stallions who were unraced. They give the new stallion plenty of solid, well matched mare support and do not flood the sales with offspring before they have gone to the track and shown what they're capable of. The operation itsself is tip top - worthy of a Kentucky operation and has a high percentage of mares in foal who foal live offspring, beating the State's stats considerabally. IF a stallion has been given ample fair opportunity to show his merit as a stallion and come up short they find a buyer for that stallion elsewhere. I singled out Hadif but they're doing the same for other stallions at Valor.

2) Valid Expectations - This stallion came to Texas untested as a stallion but with excellent pedigree behind him and the backing of top level breeders/mares already committed to him. His initial fee has decreased after setting an all time high for the state but Valid Expectations has done very well as a solid sire for breed to race breeders, and enough results at the local F-T auction to warrant the hope of possible upside commerciality for the O/S individual. The fee drop is for the most part - I think - a reflection of the weakened 'commercial' race status of Texas without slots, not a reflection of the stallion. He's mostly known for siring early maturing, 2YO runners on dirt, often enough of sufficient ability to contend for the State-bred stakes races' trophies/money. I see a lot of his offspring that haven't been rushed into racing early and often as 2YOs actually maturing into better runners at three - wish more buyers/owners would give them that chance. He may not be a sire of Champions but he'll like as not get you a racehorse and one you can usually be proud to own at the local state Class I tracks. I suspect that his daughters from those first three/four years' crops may prove to be successful broodmares, in part b/c they are by and large the product of mating good breed-worthy mares and inpart b/c his is a good outcross sireline for durability/early maturity in the midst of all the Mr. P's and Mr. P inbreeding that is out there/increasing and in part b/c of his damside contribution - nothing wrong with Mepache's female family at all.

There are other farms in Texas that have brought in a good stallion prospect and/or had encouraging early results from small crops of a new stallion that might attract patronage.....but IMO those long term value propositions in such stallions have failed as often as not for lack of they're not being set up for that long haul of support/committment from initial announcement to his third/fourth season at stud to assure the stallion, his patronizing mare owners the best possible outcome. A committment from the stallion owner/promoter is first and foremost very important to that stallion getting not only sizeable books of mares but good quality of mares. They have to be willing to turn down a mare that may be lovely to look at but has a small liklihood of getting good runners/winners and therefore dragging down the stallion's stats. They have to be willing to use their personal connections/persuasion to encourage mare owners to come to this stallion and back that with their own committment so they stand arguabally in the same boots as the mare owners they're trying to attract/persuade. It's an uphill battle outside of KY but I suspect it's just as hard relatively speaking to distinguish your MGS winning, high LTE, beautifully bred KY-based stallion prospect from all the Curlins, Hard Spuns, etc. that are announced year after year after year in that state.

[geowarrior]

Am I mistaken or is Louisiana starting to get a few interesting sires? How is that going to affect Texas breeding do you think, Jellac? I'm interested to know because my beautiful Jura is a Texas bred.

[bdw0617]

Farm/Connections providing a stallion - even the regional stallion - with a goodly number of mares that actually have a shot at throwing a runner/winner - have everything to do with that stallion being 'successful' in terms of value. By that I mean a stallion who gets enough 'quality' mares to pay his way as a stallion while also getting enough foals/good enough foals to uphold his rankings from foals to race. This is true whether in Kentucky or in Texas (you can read "Texas" as "Timbuktu" if you like as far as racing is concerned these days.) Now will such 'regional' stallions' offspring ever pull down the top record setting bid at Sartoga or Keeneland yearling sales - I doubt it, but if having a chance of making back your investment is your measurement of being successful it can be found outside of Kentucky by looking for these elements: 1) a good sire candidate in the the stallion pedigree-wise, 2) a stallion prospect that was successful at the track/winning stakes and at least Graded Stakes placed during his career, 3) a stallion prospect whose pedigree and breeding traits fits well with local mare population/racing conditions, 4) the committment of mare support from 'share holders' that is about quality not just numbers coupled with a 5) committment not to flood the local auctions with his first and second crop of yearlings. In other words investors in the stallion who trust the outfit/connections promoting him be on the same footing as the share-holders as far as 'committment' goes.

Two "local" cases in point -

1) Hadif - Owned by and stood his career at Clarence Scharbauer's Valor Farm, Pilot Point, Texas. Started at a modest stud fee his fee did increase as the case for his being a solid sire of early developing 2YO's with enough speed to often be at the top of their crop within the state-bred program. Sometimes a bit better. The Scharbauer's/Valor Farm are wise in choosing to stand new, unproved stallions who's racing ability and pedigree fit well with Texas' dirt and speed oriented racing. They do not stand stallions who were unraced. They give the new stallion plenty of solid, well matched mare support and do not flood the sales with offspring before they have gone to the track and shown what they're capable of. The operation itsself is tip top - worthy of a Kentucky operation and has a high percentage of mares in foal who foal live offspring, beating the State's stats considerabally. IF a stallion has been given ample fair opportunity to show his merit as a stallion and come up short they find a buyer for that stallion elsewhere. I singled out Hadif but they're doing the same for other stallions at Valor.

2) Valid Expectations - This stallion came to Texas untested as a stallion but with excellent pedigree behind him and the backing of top level breeders/mares already committed to him. His initial fee has decreased after setting an all time high for the state but Valid Expectations has done very well as a solid sire for breed to race breeders, and enough results at the local F-T auction to warrant the hope of possible upside commerciality for the O/S individual. The fee drop is for the most part - I think - a reflection of the weakened 'commercial' race status of Texas without slots, not a reflection of the stallion. He's mostly known for siring early maturing, 2YO runners on dirt, often enough of sufficient ability to contend for the State-bred stakes races' trophies/money. I see a lot of his offspring that haven't been rushed into racing early and often as 2YOs actually maturing into better runners at three - wish more buyers/owners would give them that chance. He may not be a sire of Champions but he'll like as not get you a racehorse and one you can usually be proud to own at the local state Class I tracks. I suspect that his daughters from those first three/four years' crops may prove to be successful broodmares, in part b/c they are by and large the product of mating good breed-worthy mares and inpart b/c his is a good outcross sireline for durability/early maturity in the midst of all the Mr. P's and Mr. P inbreeding that is out there/increasing and in part b/c of his damside contribution - nothing wrong with Mepache's female family at all.

There are other farms in Texas that have brought in a good stallion prospect and/or had encouraging early results from small crops of a new stallion that might attract patronage.....but IMO those long term value propositions in such stallions have failed as often as not for lack of they're not being set up for that long haul of support/committment from initial announcement to his third/fourth season at stud to assure the stallion, his patronizing mare owners the best possible outcome. A committment from the stallion owner/promoter is first and foremost very important to that stallion getting not only sizeable books of mares but good quality of mares. They have to be willing to turn down a mare that may be lovely to look at but has a small liklihood of getting good runners/winners and therefore dragging down the stallion's stats. They have to be willing to use their personal connections/persuasion to encourage mare owners to come to this stallion and back that with their own committment so they stand arguabally in the same boots as the mare owners they're trying to attract/persuade. It's an uphill battle outside of KY but I suspect it's just as hard relatively speaking to distinguish your MGS winning, high LTE, beautifully bred KY-based stallion prospect from all the Curlins, Hard Spuns, etc. that are announced year after year after year in that state.

being here in arkansas I've seen some of Valid Expecations up close and personal. some of them can scoot.

[Roguelet]

Trick question... sort of. Yes, KY can make or "break" a stallion, sometimes unfairly, but the same practices applied to a stallion in any state can also make or break that stallion... again sometimes unfairly.

A stallion can get his best book of mares and the best overall support in KY, and we all know how the game is played when those foals get to the sales to get those sale numbers up (a deception that very few people in smaller regional markets have the means to even attempt to do.)

But, there are SO many stallions in KY, new ones retiring each year, that the "flavor of the month" (or is it the "flavor of the day") changes all the time. This puts intense pressure on the stallions to stay in the spotlight all the time, and quite often does not give a good stallion enough time to reach his potential, even when given very good chances out of the gate. This is ESPECIALLY true of stallions who tend to sire late-maturing, distance favoring horses. If their 2YOs don't tear up the track, or even their early 3YOs, everyone touts them as horrible failures and the horse is gone before his first crop is even old enough to do their best racing.

This can be a nasty cycle where all those potentially good horses are given up on before they're at their prime, then nobody wants the up and comers because the first crops didn't do anything early and the sire is labeled a dud, so people never see that the stallion's offspring can provide them with 6 - 8 years of good, solid racing. It's all about the instant gratification.

This is more pronounced in KY where there is more pressure for a stallion's babies to set the world on fire their first time out of the gate as a 2YO, because there are 12 new stallions knocking on their stall door to replace them if they don't, but truthfully it happens everywhere. I think, really, it is impatience and poor early management of the stallion's babies as well as the stallion's book that can ruin a stallion, no matter where he is... KY or anywhere else. Impatience, unrealistic expectations, and cookie-cutter stallion management are certainly not state-specific.

[chicago78]

I think that A.P. Indy is a spectacular stallion, and has been given every opportunity to succeed since the day he retired. He was certainly a chosen stallion, but he made the most of his opportunity.

There have been countless other stallions retired to Kentucky that were afforded the same opportunity, without having the success of A.P. Indy. Alysheba, Coronado's Quest, Easy Goer, Rhythm, and a bunch of others were also the chosen horse, but weren't nearly as good as A.P. Indy.

[Sysonby]

Breeding is a symbiotic relationship. It's not all about the stallions but also the mares supporting those stallions and the people who own those mares. Some people think new and shiny will overcome the mare's shortcomings. A lot of people want to get in on the ground floor of the next Mr Prospector, Storm Cat, Dynaformer and Distorted Humor before they get too expensive. Good proven stallions are expensive. OK proven stallions have shown their limitations. You want the breeders and buyers thinking "This could be the one" before it becomes painfully obvious that he isn't.

[jellac]

Geowarrior wrote:

Am I mistaken or is Louisiana starting to get a few interesting sires? How is that going to affect Texas breeding do you think, Jellac? I'm interested to know because my beautiful Jura is a Texas bred.

My thoughts -

Yes- Louisiana is starting to stand some interesting stallions. This follows the lucrative racing opportunities for La-breds racing at La. tracks, where purse structure is well supported by the income from "slots" - well supported I might addd, in large measure by Texans who go to La. to gamble. (Note: the same statement can be made to some degree substituting "New Mexico", "Oklahoma" and "Arkansas" for "La")

Is this going to affect Texas breeding? It already has. To borrow (and mangle) a famous quip from a certain Texas billionaire, one-time presidential candidate: "That giant sucking noise you hear...."....is the sound of most mares worth breeding and many of the stallions that were standing in Texas going accross a river. Those rivers are: the Sabine River (which demarcates most of the border between Tx. and La.), the Red River (border between Texas and Oklahoma/Arkansas), and the Rio Grande (border between Texas and New Mexico at El Paso ( a scant few miles from the Sunland Park race track).

Now, eventually there will be some settling out of this trend b/c many mare owners/breeders are Texans who: a) own ag-exempt land that must maintain breeding stock in a documentable business-like manner to continue that tax advantaged status plus they either like horses or think raising racehorses is "sexier" than raising cattle, etc., and b) also like to race in front of their friends/colleagues and business associates at our local tracks, and c) are darn proud of their Texas roots and do not intend to totally let the adjoinging states co-opt their game.

One way of fighting the "export" trend is to make local racing attractive to breeders/horsemen. The enrichment of the Texas Stallion Stakes program and the Texas Sales Futurity racing program are efforts to encourage Texas-based breeders to breed in Texas to Texas-Accredited stallions, even if only every other year and/or to sell at auction/buy at auctions based in Texas. All these race incentives are based on the 'futurity' and 'derby' type nomination programs so common in QH racing where a pool of nomination fees accumulated over several years between a foal's weanling nomination and subsequent supplements as a yearling and 2YO 'grow' the available purse money even as the number of potential entrants in a race future is dwindling due to injury, slow development, owner set-backs, sales, loss of interest/committement - you name it.

An effort to get a 'Fair' racing circuit similar to the one in California going in Texas might provide a second tier of racing opportunities for horses and horsemen, arguabally bring in more fans of racing in our geographicly large state. Manor Downs, where your gelding Gear It Up's dam won the Futurity, is an example of what we term a "Class II" track that is fairly successful running a Mixed Meet. The Gillespie Co. Fair race season of some 14 days during the "Fair" in July and August weekends is another example of where racing in local, smaller population centers for restricted time periods but also in conjunction with a major draw for visitors is popular and successful.

Meanwhile the efforts to "educate" our Legislators as to the economic value of racing and race horse breeding, raising, training operations to the state in the hopes of getting more traction for putting slots at tracks program in place, helping to support purses is ongoing. (We're not only at the disadvantage of dealing now with a Legislature more reflective of the urban/suburban majority of Texas' population, but also up against huge lobbying efforts against by both conservative right 'anti-gambling' groups AND the solid contributions made my gambling interests in the states adjoinging Texas that would be hurt if Texans could gamble at home instead of driving/flying out of state to do so.)

In reality the states surrounding Texas and Texas' industry representatives ought to get together and work out a regional program that benefits everyone in the region while "growing" racing - b/c actually while Texas is taking it on the chin right now, the possibility of Texas approving slots at tracks/supporting purse structures is a huge risk for those 'other' state programs. Go to the parking lots of the tracks in Vinton, Bossier City, Remington in Ok., Hobbs and Sunland Park, NM and check out the liscense plates you see there. What would happen if all those Texans didn't have to drive so far to pull the handle on a slot machine and/or to watch quality racing with healthy purses? It can happen at the whim of the Texas Legislature - not a group I'd ever want to bet my fortunes against.

At some point mare owners/breeders in Texas must adjust and breed some of their mares out of state to stallions in jurisdictions that afford more racing/better purse opportunity (not to mention the value of other states' breeder and owners awards programs) but I think Texas based breeders with farms of their own and a few others wanting to keep a 'hand in' on the state racing scene will adjust how they go about staying "in the game".....and whether or not that will support Texas' TB Breeding or not I really can not say. I think the best bet for a Texas based breeder is to be very choosy as to the quality of broodmare sent to a Texas based stallion and equally choosy as to what stud farm you deal with. I think there are maybe 4-5 stud farms that bring in and to some degree or other support quality stallion prospects, solid breed to race stallions who are proven. How they support their stallions in terms of mares, auctions and general customer service will be critical to the careful/smart mare owner/breeder. Partnerships may come more into play. Mares with a catalog page of some value and/or decent race earnings that are selling in foal to established or "hot" out of state stallions will sell better at local auctions than those open or in-foal to a Texas based stallion, but that will be in part due to competition from La./Ok/Ar/NM breeders also bidding for such mares to foal out and breed back to their stallions. This will tend to become a narrower and more selective field of opportunity while the number of unproved stallions standing at a family farm of at most one or two studs with virtually no mare support will - inexplicabally - increase.

[geowarrior]

Hmmm, thanks Jellac, for that detailed answer. A number of people have asked me if Jura will race again. I'd love to race but I wouldn't want to be risking the claim (why rescue him if one's just going to put him at risk again) and he needs to go on the turf I think. I'm told there are nice turf courses in Texas, which made me wonder how the situation was with respect to breeding since I keep reading about La in particular. It is too bad that Festival of Light was not able to keep going because I think he would have stayed in state, he got quite a few mares, and some of his offspring from his only crop were pretty useful. The funny thing is that although Festival of Light himself was savage, any offspring of his that I know about all have personalities much like Jura. I wonder if Festival of Light was mistreated earlier in his career.

[bdw0617]

Hmmm, thanks Jellac, for that detailed answer. A number of people have asked me if Jura will race again. I'd love to race but I wouldn't want to be risking the claim (why rescue him if one's just going to put him at risk again) and he needs to go on the turf I think. I'm told there are nice turf courses in Texas, which made me wonder how the situation was with respect to breeding since I keep reading about La in particular. It is too bad that Festival of Light was not able to keep going because I think he would have stayed in state, he got quite a few mares, and some of his offspring from his only crop were pretty useful. The funny thing is that although Festival of Light himself was savage, any offspring of his that I know about all have personalities much like Jura. I wonder if Festival of Light was mistreated earlier in his career.

been to lone star one too many times. outside of churchill/keeneland, It hinkt hey ahve the best turf courses in the south.

If you wanted to run him again, couldn't you put him in a starter allowence?

[spex4me]

Breeding is a symbiotic relationship. It's not all about the stallions but also the mares supporting those stallions and the people who own those mares. Some people think new and shiny will overcome the mare's shortcomings. A lot of people want to get in on the ground floor of the next Mr Prospector, Storm Cat, Dynaformer and Distorted Humor before they get too expensive. Good proven stallions are expensive. OK proven stallions have shown their limitations. You want the breeders and buyers thinking "This could be the one" before it becomes painfully obvious that he isn't.

why does the term crap shoot come so easily to mind?
It should not be that way. I am suprised the idea of stallion stud caps hasn't come up.

[madelyn]

What other industry has price limits?

[bdw0617]

What other industry has price limits?

I might be wrong but I think Germany has something similar to this


with that said, you can't put a cap on free trade. people are, as long as thye are in america, to make as much money as they possibly can as long as it's legal

You just have to hvae smarter buyers.Overbrook isn't kidnapping people at gunpoint and making them bred to storm cat at half a million dollars per live foal.

Just say no.

It's like a home. just because a home is 3 milion dolalrs, doesn't mean someone is going to or has to buy it for 3 million dollars. when it is not p urchased, the price comes down.

People just need to wake up and say we aren't going to take the forestries, te unbridled songs, the overpriced storm cats, the 100k elusive qualities of the world anymore