TRUENICKS.....

[fletch621]

Mr. Rogers, thank you for the clarification. Hopefully the JC will see fit to open more data sets in the future.

[Rokeby Forever]

Mr Brogers - I do thank you for taking the time to answer my questions. I find Truenicks to be fascinating and I'm hoping that another question will be entertained.

Take Unbridled's Song and your (least) favourite stallion Storm Cat. When UBS retired to stud he got Storm Cat mares but they were non runners or poorly performed. Go and take a look at the race records of Cahooters, Song to Remember, Zing and In the Storm. Now the nick has proven itself so successful it is no longer the unraced Storm Cat mares that he is getting but the group performed ones.

Currently, Unbridled's Song on the cross with Storm Cat mares has produced (racing age) 45 foals, 29 starters (64%), 13 wnrs (29%), 4 SWs (9%). As TrueNicks concentrates on the stakes production from a cross, how does 9% SWs from a $150,000 stallion translate to "so successful?" I realize that the 9% SW figure (which is getting old) is largely based on weaker Storm Cat broodmares, but shouldn't a "successful" nick qualify at a higher percentage with a sampling as big as 45 broodmares? It's true that Unbridled's Song is now getting better performing Storm Cat mares, but Unbridled's Song himself hasn't changed over the years - he still has the same four legs, the same head, the same tail, and the Storm Cat mares that he's covered all this time all had Storm Cat as their sire. The nick itself always existed as such and will continue to do so.

Perhaps that answer to improved future statistics from this nick lies with stronger female tails in current Storm Cat broodmares as opposed to broodmares from earlier crops? If that's true, can't the same be said of any sire/broodmare sire nick - that stronger broodmares from a particular broodmare sire will increase the strength of that nick?

In sum: As I understand TrueNicks, nick ratings are derived from sire/broodmare sire strength (as in the sample example of Rags To Riches, AP Indy/Deputy Minister). If that's the case, why does it matter that Unbridled's Song is now getting better racing and/or producing broodmares out of Storm Cat than he did in the past? If it's all about sire/broodmare sire strength, why should the SW percentage change with better racing/producing broodmares - the nick itself is still the same as ever.

[brogers]

Currently, Unbridled's Song on the cross with Storm Cat mares has produced (racing age) 45 foals, 29 starters (64%), 13 wnrs (29%), 4 SWs (9%).

Roke,

It might be best if we start with correct/current figures. Currently, Unbridled's Song on the cross with Storm Cat mares has produced (of racing age) 60 foals, 29 starters (48%), 15 wnrs (25%), 5 SWs (8%).

However, 15 of these foals are current two year olds who turned two a couple of days ago so I think it fair (tell me if you think otherwise) to take them out. It then becomes 45 foals, 29 starters (64%), 15 wnrs (33%), 5 SWs (11%).

We actually made a logic code in TrueNicks to deal with this happening so that when horses turn two, but have no chance of making an impact on the cross either way we dont count these foals until they have raced or reached a certain age. It was actually Hold That Tiger, a first season sire with a hyper book that made us look at and solve this problem. But I digress...

As TrueNicks concentrates on the stakes production from a cross, how does 9% SWs from a $150,000 stallion translate to "so successful?" I realize that the 9% SW figure (which is getting old) is largely based on weaker Storm Cat broodmares, but shouldn't a "successful" nick qualify at a higher percentage with a sampling as big as 45 broodmares?

The cross is performing much better than you would think. Storm Cat as a broodmare sire is a 5% SW/Fls stallion and UBS as a sire is a 7% SW/Fls Stallion so for a cross to be at 9% (or 11% as of today) then it is doing well enough. If you had a Storm Cat mare and knew that with all stallions you had a 5% chance of getting a stakes winner but if you mated her to Unbridled's Song you had double the chance of a stakes winner it would be probably worth your money if you could afford it to go.

What you also have to appreciate is that TrueNicks also looks at both Unbridled's Song with mares by all other broodmare sire lines and Storm Cat mares with all other sires and considers that when creating the rating so it considers the complete opportunity for the nick to outperform. The UBS/Storm Cat nick outperforms a lot of the better crosses with Unbridled's Song as a sire and a lot of the better crosses for Storm Cat as a broodmare sire. This is despite the fact that with 60 foals of racing age the UBS/Storm Cat cross is by far the most popular cross for UBS. It is succeeding where numbers could cause it to regress to the norm.

It's true that Unbridled's Song is now getting better performing Storm Cat mares, but Unbridled's Song himself hasn't changed over the years - he still has the same four legs, the same head, the same tail, and the Storm Cat mares that he's covered all this time all had Storm Cat as their sire. The nick itself always existed as such and will continue to do so.

I agree

Perhaps that answer to improved future statistics from this nick lies with stronger female tails in current Storm Cat broodmares as opposed to broodmares from earlier crops? If that's true, can't the same be said of any sire/broodmare sire nick - that stronger broodmares from a particular broodmare sire will increase the strength of that nick?

It should and it generally does but that is multifactoral. What tends to happen is that as the better mares bred on the same nick have their foals, their foals are raised a little better, go to better trainers and are given better opportunity to succeed. I don't think you can ascribe one factor to it .

In sum: As I understand TrueNicks, nick ratings are derived from sire/broodmare sire strength (as in the sample example of Rags To Riches, AP Indy/Deputy Minister). If that's the case, why does it matter that Unbridled's Song is now getting better racing and/or producing broodmares out of Storm Cat than he did in the past? If it's all about sire/broodmare sire strength, why should the SW percentage change with better racing/producing broodmares - the nick itself is still the same as ever.

That is correct but my comment was more a reflection on a point you raised a little earlier regarding Slewacide and Distorted Humor. Breeders tend to look for replacements when a sires fee rises so Slewacide changes to AP Indy but the strength of the nick remains. In the case of Unbridled's Song and Storm Cat breeders have not changed the source of the nick rather the racing and production quality of Storm Cat mares has increased. It is just an interesting observation....

[Rokeby Forever]

Hello Mr. Brogers,

Thank you for replying. If I failed to do so, I wish you a very happy and prosperous 2008.

To set the record straight, I wouldn't include today's two year olds at this point as being of racing age. To some in California, they'll be of racing age in two months.

I find one passage to be very interesting:

What tends to happen is that as the better mares bred on the same nick have their foals, their foals are raised a little better, go to better trainers and are given better opportunity to succeed. I don't think you can ascribe one factor to it.

That's quite a statement to make, considering the people that have handled some of the better Unbridled's Song/lesser Storm Cat mare runners to this point. Off the top of my head:

Buddha was originally trained by Bill Mott, and was later moved to James Bond (trainer of Behrens, L'Carriere, and Will's Way, among others).

Noonmark is trained by Steve Asmussen.

Half Ours and Magnificent Song were trained by Todd Pletcher. Would you like argue that an Unbridled's Song out of a lesser mare like Zing (Half Ours) could have been raised a little better, gone to a better trainer, and given a better opportunity to succeed?

Should Unbridled's Song cover better quality Glitterman mares, could they wind up in better hands than did Political Force with Allen Jerkens?

It's interesting that the most expensive Unbridled's Song/Storm Cat yearling of 2006 (out of Queen's Lady) was bought by John Ferguson, who also bought the two most expensive of the crop, one out of Win Crafty Lady and one out of Wild Heart Dancing. If, indeed, our friends in Dubai give horses a better chance to succeed, why haven't any of these three been heard from? And, if our friends in Dubai do all that is best for a horse, then I'm sure that you were delighted to hear the news when Etched was taken from Kiaran McLaughlin and shipped to Dubai to prepare for the UAE Derby - it's to give him a better chance to succeed, I'm sure you'll agree.

[xfactor fan]

As to Female Families:

Couldn't you take a list of the stakes winners from any given nick, then look at female familes? If you have a 9% SW number, and 4% have Somethingroyal on the bottom side, wouldn't this suggest that Broodmare sire + Somethingroyal mtDNA is the key to success?

This doesn't strike me as all that hard to do, or am I missing something????

[Rokeby Forever]

I think our good friend, Mr Brogers, deserves a round of applause. The system he helped to devise rates an Officer yearling as highest on Day three at Keeneland tomorrow:

http://auctions.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=43057

[winds]

Roke,

Where does Officer stand? It wouldn't be at Taylor Made would it?

winds

[Rokeby Forever]

Indeed, Winds, and that's why I'm giving Mr Brogers the credit that he richly deserves. When, in an article about TrueNicks (which Mr Brogers helped to create) and sales prospects, I see words like "inspired" and "astonishing" connected to Officer and a filly by him, I think that Mr Brogers deserves his due.

[brogers]

Roke,

Why didn't you congratulate me yesterday? The top 10 short yearlings by TrueNicks rating that we published for your consideration and it contained two of the top three sellers on the day (The Malibu Moon/Inclination and the Street Cry/Countess Clever). Quite unfair for you not to make note of that in bold writing

The short yearling you mention was concieved while Officer stood at Gainesway so if any credit should be handed out by you it should go to Michael and Dennis Narlinger who bred the filly. I had nothing to do with it being mated nor consigned with Taylor Made. In fact as of today, and I suspect much to your eternal chagrin, I no longer work at Taylor Made.

The Truenicks system rates this filly highly because the Officer/Danzig cross has indeed made an "astonishing start", having already produced graded stakes winner Officer Cherrie, stakes winners Frisk Her, Chief Officer, and Satulagi, and graded stakes-placed Base Commander. Makes me wonder if Officer would work best in Australia......gets good 2yo's and loves Danzig blood.....

Mr. Rogers, thank you for the clarification. Hopefully the JC will see fit to open more data sets in the future.

Fletch,

We are working on some different reports with some different data from the JC which we hope to introduce over the next 3-6 months. Your ideas previously are good ones and we will try to integrate them. If you have anything else that you think worthwhile email us at [email protected].

[Rokeby Forever]

In fact as of today, and I suspect much to your eternal chagrin, I no longer work at Taylor Made.

Mr Brogers,

This comes not so much with chagrin, but as a shock. I wish you the best in all your future endeavours.

[brogers]

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/nation ... d-Son.aspx

[winds]

brogers,

You do realize that alot of the picking on is all done in good fun. But with all that aside, I want to let you know I for one am sorry you aren't with Taylor Made anymore. I hope that any and all of your future endeavors are very succesful.

winds

[fletch621]

Mr. Rogers, here's to great success in your new undertakings! I have all kinds of ideas kicking around in my head, so be looking for an email at some point in the near future when I get a chance to put them into coherent text.

Jason

[brogers]

You do realize that alot of the picking on is all done in good fun.

Unfortunately Taylor Made did not see it that way and terminated my employment.







Just kidding.....Whatever comments were made here by anyone had no impact on me leaving Taylor Made. I had a homesick wife with two young kids and a great opportunity with William Inglis and I leave Taylor Made on great terms. Thanks for the post...

[winds]

Excellent and congratulations. So, we'll still be hearing from you then?

You'll give us the Australian perspective on things and keep us up to date on Australia's racing/breeding industry.

winds