Factors You Use to Elimate Horses for the KD

geowarrior · Postby **geowarrior** » Sat Apr 05, 2008 8:22 pm

Fascinating discussion. I always love Bill's calculations (you know I do, Bill), I just never seem to have the time to do them for myself for the wild and weird outsiders I like to love. However Bill was kind enough to do a calculation on my little favorite Tomcito, who came up with a very favorable stamina figure using his calculations (I don't have the record in front of me but it was something like 0.65). People are still discounting him but I believe he has room to improve.

And hi to you too Jagger :lol:

Nice to see(hear) you again. I hope your health is improved. All my favorite people on this thread today.

And yes Sam's point is a very good one. Many of the numerical tools fall to pieces when we are looking at the offspring of new sires.

Can't ignore form and experience, though. Big Brown's lack of experience to my mind is a problem, and his wire to wire tendency would seem to set it up for Pyro if he succeeds in clearing the field, or to give him a bumpy trip a la last year's Curlin Derby if he doesn't. War Pass ought not to run IMO.

Pyro is being seen as a slow horse this year, but really he hasn't had to go fast. Nevertheless if we are to believe the 2 yo Beyer figures, he certainly could go fast last year. Just not as fast as War Pass at those distances, and at that age. So are we now to believe he has regressed as a racehorse? Hard to believe with such a measured training job.

gmj828 · Postby **gmj828** » Mon Apr 07, 2008 11:18 am

Tomcito is on my radar for sure. Something about that horse that makes me want to include him come Derby Day.
I agree with you Geo about Big Brown. He is a monster horse but seasoning and the derby go hand in hand. He is too green (monkey) and do not think he will win on May 3rd. As for War Pass-he is off of my contender list. Too many factors against him and I just don't think he can get the distance. If the Wood was a 1 1/4 race he would have finished 9th.

geowarrior · Postby **geowarrior** » Thu Apr 10, 2008 6:50 pm

Hi gmj and welcome to the board. I especially like new members who agree with me.

I don't know that Big Brown is quite that green as in monkey, though, he could be a good horse.

For the sake of the sport, nobody would be more delighted than I if Big Brown did turn out to be a horse for the ages. But I do believe that Tomcito as a little underdog would be a very popular win too. Bob Black Jack in my opinion is showing already that if he can stay uninjured he could be one of those great hero horses that are wonderful for the sport. I keep thinking of the sport, we need popular, we need cheap horses, owners with character, trainers with integrity, we need something to LOVE! (are my inadequacies showing?)

But hey, this is a handicapping thread so here's my big tip. King's Silver Son is going to win the Arkansas Derby and then the Derby. This will make Ascot Stud begin to take crack (so he says), and we'll all have to go to Canada to conduct an intervention as supportive Pedigree Query members should. However, we'll have such a good time there that poor Ascot won't actually see any of us, but we'll win so much by betting on Canadian racing and accumulating those lovely Canadian Dollars that we'll have enough to send him to the Betty Ford clinic and so it will all end happily ever after. Except that King's Silver Son will have won the Derby.

Elusive City · Postby **Elusive City** » Wed Apr 16, 2008 9:57 am

Well I factor in LineBreeding. Never been a Northern Dancer Inbred to win the Derby (although Imperialism, a close relative of Colonel John ran well in Smarty's derby). so I am tossing both Big Brown and Colonel John.

I Really favor z fortune (and his South American Breeding--which is why he is so low in GSV).

The City

gmj828 · Postby **gmj828** » Wed Apr 16, 2008 10:13 am

Elusive City-Could you explain the South American breeding in relation to GSV? Z Fortune has been a toss out for me (on top) because of the 48 GSV-only 1 other horse has even hit the board with under 50 and that was Jacklin Klugman-49.24 in a field of 13 in 1980

Colonel John's inbreeding to Northern Dancer is in his 5th generation. No derby winner has had that trait?

jagger · Postby **jagger** » Wed Apr 16, 2008 11:37 am

What a curiosity that I was not aware of. With >1000 inbred ND's who have won at least 1 graded stakes, not 1 has won the Derby :shock:

?

Elusive City · Postby **Elusive City** » Wed Apr 16, 2008 6:28 pm

gmj828 wrote:Elusive City-Could you explain the South American breeding in relation to GSV? Z Fortune has been a toss out for me (on top) because of the 48 GSV-only 1 other horse has even hit the board with under 50 and that was Jacklin Klugman-49.24 in a field of 13 in 1980

Colonel John's inbreeding to Northern Dancer is in his 5th generation. No derby winner has had that trait?

Nope. No Northern Dancer Linebreeding has ever won the Derby. of course there's always a first for everything. People didn't think Bold ruler could sire a derby winner. A certain horse put that baby to bed and of course We've had two linebred Bold Rulers win the derby (charsismatic and Smarty Jones). Prolly the best trend for Derby winners is the Ribot linebreeding appearing in 4 of the last 7 Derby winners. (monarchos,War Emblem,funny cide and Street Sense) alas there are no Ribots this year. :-(

Now as far as Z Fortune goes GSV does not do him justice due to his preponderence of Southern American sires and that Siphon himself is only rated 33 in GSV. If you sire is rated low and some of his sire are low
your are gonna have a low GSV. None of siphon's three grade 1 winner even reach 60. yet they are Grade 1 winners.

The City

gmj828 · Postby **gmj828** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 6:53 am

Thanks City. Very interesting. I know there's a first time for everything but the Northern Dancer stat blows me away. However, I'm cautious about it. I remember hearing about Raise A Native in the female line pretty much destined a colt to be an also ran on Derby Day but a couple of horses have recently won with that trait.

Bill from WA · Postby **Bill from WA** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 11:41 am

STAMINA INDEXES
AND (LINE) INBREEDING PATTERNS (WITHIN 6 GENERATIONS)
FOR THE KENTUCKY DERBY WINNERS
SINCE 1972

2007: Street Sense (0.53)
5x4Natalma
5/6x5/6 Native Dancer
2006: Barbaro (0.49)
4x5 Nashua
2005: Giacomo (0.87)
No inbreeding
2004: Smarty Jones (0.78)
5x5/5 Bold Ruler
2003: Funny Cide (0.83)
5x5 Ribot
2002: War Emblem (1.02)
6x5 Ribot
5x6 Aristophanes
2001: Monarchos (0.70)
5x5 Ribot
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus (0.79)
3x5 Native Dancer
1999: Charismatic (1.00)
5x3 Sir Gaylord
4/6X4 Somethingroyal
4x4 Bold Ruler
5x4 Tom Fool
6x4 Polynesian
1998: Real Quiet (1.02)
4x3 Raise A Native
5/4x5 Rough n’ Tumble
1997: Silver Charm (0.65)
4x5 War Admiral
5x6 La Troienne
6x5 Nearco
5x6 Bull Dog
1996: Grindstone (0.84)
6x4 Tom Fool
6x5 Polynesian
6x5 Case Ace
6x5 Princequillo
1995: Thunder Gulch (0.44)
4x5 Native Dancer
6x5/6/6 Nearco
6x6/5 Hyperion
1994: Go For Gin (0.80)
5x5 Count Fleet
1993: Sea Hero (0.49)
4x4 War Admiral
5x5 Man O’ War
5x5 La Troienne
6x5 Nearco
6x5 Blue Larkspur
1992: Lil E Tee (0.73)
No Inbreeding
1991: Strike The Gold (0.93)
No Inbreeding
1990: Unbridled (0.85)
4x4 Aspidistra
4x5 Rough n’ Tumble
1989: Sunday Silence (0.71)
4x5 Mahmoud
1988: Winning Colors (0.79)
4x4/5 Nasrullah
1987: Alysheba (0.95)
4x4 Nasrullah
6x4 Man O’ War
1986: Ferdinand (1.19)
5x5 Bull Dog
1985: Spend a Buck (1.13)
5x5 Prince Rose
1984: Swale (0.66)
5/5x4 Nasrullah
6/6x5 Nearco
1983: Sunny’s Halo (0.76)
4x5 Mahmoud
5x6 Blenheim II
6x5 Nogara
1982: Gato Del Sol (0.69)
4x5/6 Nearco
5/5x6 Solario
4x6 Sun Princess
5x5 Mahmoud
1981: Pleasant Colony (0.73)
5x5 Mahmoud
5x6 Pharos
5x6 Papyrus
6x6/6 Blenheim II
1980: Genuine Risk (0.92)
6x6 Spearmint
1979: Spectacular Bid (0.98)
3x3 To Market
5x5 Blenheim II
6/6x6 Black Toney
5x6 Mumtaz Mahal
1978: Affirmed (0.73)
5x5/6/6 Teddy
6x5 Man O’ War
1977: Seattle Slew (0.74)
4x4 Nasrullah
5/6x5 Nearco
6x6/5 Blenheim II
5/6x6 Blue Larkspur
6/6x6 Sir Gallahad III
6x6 Pharos
1976: Bold Forbes (0.76)
5x3 Blenheim II
6/6x4 Blandford
6x5 Plucky Liege
6x6/6 Far Play
1975: Foolish Pleasure (0.79)
5/4x4 Blenheim II
6x5/6 Phalaris
6/6x6 The Tetrarch
1974: Cannonade (0.90)
5x5 Blenheim II
6x6/6 Phalaris
5x6 Mumtaz Mahal
6x5 Papyrus
1973: Secretariat (0.56)
6x5 Polymelus
6/6x6 Sundridge
6x6 Roi Herode
1972: Riva Ridge (0.79)
6x4 Swynford
6x4 Gainsborough
5x5 Ultimus
6/6x5 Phalaris

Bill

Elusive City · Postby **Elusive City** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 11:50 am

Bill from WA wrote:
2007: Street Sense (0.53)
4x4 Natalma
5x5 Native Dancer

Street Sense also linebred to Ribot 7 x 4 (not sure if that counts???)

gmj828 · Postby **gmj828** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 12:37 pm

...And I think Street Sense is 4X5 Natalma not 4X4

Bill from WA · Postby **Bill from WA** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 12:50 pm

Thank you GMJ

You are correct. Typo on my part.

Thanks,

Bill

gmj828 · Postby **gmj828** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 12:53 pm

No problem-I fat finger alot!!!

So what do you guys make of this Northern Dancer inbred thingy? Is it just another historical stat soon to be broken or is there more to it??

I'd like some thoughts on Adriano if anyone cares to chime in.

Elusive City · Postby **Elusive City** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 4:44 pm

gmj828 wrote:No problem-I fat finger alot!!!

So what do you guys make of this Northern Dancer inbred thingy? Is it just another historical stat soon to be broken or is there more to it??

I'd like some thoughts on Adriano if anyone cares to chime in.

Well I tossed all the Northern Dancer linebreds last year two and caught the tri. also tossed the Mr prospector linebreds too. You'll be suprised how many ND and MP linebreds there are these days. Eventually MP and ND linebreds will win the derby (there are just so many out there) also we'll have a storm cat linebred win the derby one day. Its just a matter of time.
This year who knows?

The City

gmj828 · Postby **gmj828** » Fri Apr 18, 2008 8:27 am

Last year was a much easier race to handicap than this year-much clearer picture-at least for me it was. I've been analyzing and analyzing this year. Tossing horses, adding horses, running figs, but the one horse that has been a constant on my list from the beginning is Court Vision. People say "too slow" but I think he will be right there on 5/3