Contenders
Big Brown- Most talented horse in race
Cowboy Cal-Sleeper with tactical speed
Z Fortune-Strong race in Arkansas Derby
Monba-Well bred to get distance
Colonel John-Should be there late
Tale of Ekati-Well bred to get distance
Many are running from this one, but the best horse in the race is Big Brown. No horse has run as fast and has looked better then Big Brown. History is against him, but history was against him at Gulfstream and it history was against Rags To Riches, Street Sense and Funny Cide. Kent Desormeaux is a two time Derby winning jockey and will be outside of any trouble, horses speed will get him right up font with ease. Probable short price, but he is the horse to still beat and we will not run from him. Post 20 still goes against my handicapping principles, but has time to get over, if he is as good as they say he is, he will win. Dutrow knows the horse and sees him everyday. He knows what he has and he is not shy about it. If someone is telling you how good he is, why doubt it. Will either look like a champ or chump if things don’t go his way after running his mouth. Has done it before and he has been right on. A win play is probably not the way to go. Will use on top in tris and zactas as well as some of the others mentioned here. Spread in pick plays.
Your Derby pick.
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Stevie Belmont
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Last edited by Stevie Belmont on Fri May 02, 2008 12:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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bdw0617
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the more I think about it, the for some reason I like eight belles. after really sitting down and thinking about it.. I'm not putting my fortune on Ebar Coa's back.. I'm just not going to do it. (tale of ekati).. he will find a way to lose that race.
I'm not a fan of the socal horses this year, not so much becuase of the polytrack but they really haven't beaten anyone but each other. it's brother derek all over again.
Big brown's post position, feet, running style, all are question marks enough for me to toss him, at least at the odds.
long story short, when it's all said and done, I am down to a couple of horses.. Court Vision, Eight Belles and Recapturetheglory. I really am starting to grow with recapturetheglory. VERY underrated horse. that last race had it been Z humor that did it instead of him, Z humor would be no more than 6 to 1. I was impressed by it because he wasn't asked to run until the stretch and when he was asked he spread his margin and the jockey clearly had a handful of horse in the tank. now he's not oging to get that easy pace, but If he can rate just a little, I think he is going to be in it.[/quote]
I'm not a fan of the socal horses this year, not so much becuase of the polytrack but they really haven't beaten anyone but each other. it's brother derek all over again.
Big brown's post position, feet, running style, all are question marks enough for me to toss him, at least at the odds.
long story short, when it's all said and done, I am down to a couple of horses.. Court Vision, Eight Belles and Recapturetheglory. I really am starting to grow with recapturetheglory. VERY underrated horse. that last race had it been Z humor that did it instead of him, Z humor would be no more than 6 to 1. I was impressed by it because he wasn't asked to run until the stretch and when he was asked he spread his margin and the jockey clearly had a handful of horse in the tank. now he's not oging to get that easy pace, but If he can rate just a little, I think he is going to be in it.[/quote]
"When the solution is simple, God is answering.”
- Einstein
- Einstein
To win: Colonel John.
Exacta: Colonel John / Bob Black Jack
Tri: Colonel John / Bob Black Jack / Tale of Ekati
Super: Colonel John / Bob Black Jack / Tale of Ekati / Monba
bdw: you can say the same thing about the socal horses evey year. Look at the field Point Given beat in the SA derby. Some years people respect the socal horses some years they don't, this year I think the poly is causing people to underrate them. JMHO
Exacta: Colonel John / Bob Black Jack
Tri: Colonel John / Bob Black Jack / Tale of Ekati
Super: Colonel John / Bob Black Jack / Tale of Ekati / Monba
bdw: you can say the same thing about the socal horses evey year. Look at the field Point Given beat in the SA derby. Some years people respect the socal horses some years they don't, this year I think the poly is causing people to underrate them. JMHO
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bdw0617
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yes and no.
I get that they dont' run these races just to make my handicapping easier.
Point Given KILLED the SA field.
you can't compare Colonel John with Point Given.
when i see a field who I think is suspect, I expect a good horse to tower over them. Colonel john has egged out a horse that is going to be 40 to 1 in the derby, and another that didn't even MAKE the derby, and he's the talk of the town. put in that perspective, I'm out.
I get that they dont' run these races just to make my handicapping easier.
Point Given KILLED the SA field.
you can't compare Colonel John with Point Given.
when i see a field who I think is suspect, I expect a good horse to tower over them. Colonel john has egged out a horse that is going to be 40 to 1 in the derby, and another that didn't even MAKE the derby, and he's the talk of the town. put in that perspective, I'm out.
"When the solution is simple, God is answering.”
- Einstein
- Einstein
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geowarrior
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derby pick
As much as it pains me to NOT pick Big Brown, I just don't think he can overcome history. I do think he is the class of the field and really had a chance at the Triple Crown and I do think it was a mistake not to take posts 1 or 2.
Therfore: Colonel John, Eight Belles, Court Vision
Therfore: Colonel John, Eight Belles, Court Vision
1st. Big Brown...easily the best of these, he can start in the parking lot and still beat this field.
2nd. Court Vision...IEAH's other horse, worked like a good thing with Blinker's on, Mott took his time and has this one ready now.
3rd. Cool Coal Man...throw out his synthetic track race, very under rated horse....worked good for this race.
4th. Z Fortune...Asmussen's other horse, Pyro beat him in the Risen Star getting 6 lbs. from Z that day.
5th. Denis Of Cork...Likes this track, bounced off his Ill. Derby win...rebounds today as tri/super threat.
6th. Visionaire...the superfecta bomb.
2nd. Court Vision...IEAH's other horse, worked like a good thing with Blinker's on, Mott took his time and has this one ready now.
3rd. Cool Coal Man...throw out his synthetic track race, very under rated horse....worked good for this race.
4th. Z Fortune...Asmussen's other horse, Pyro beat him in the Risen Star getting 6 lbs. from Z that day.
5th. Denis Of Cork...Likes this track, bounced off his Ill. Derby win...rebounds today as tri/super threat.
6th. Visionaire...the superfecta bomb.
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Playwithfire
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1. Cool Coal Man - 1-1 in off track, won at CD, decent tactical speed
2. Colonel John - Should attend the pace ok, Tiznow's seem to like the mud, great work the other day.
3. Big Brown - most talented in field, i just think he wears out down the stretch having to do too much from post 20.
This is a great "discussion" race, you can make a case for nearly every horse in the field, especially w/ the off-going likely.
2. Colonel John - Should attend the pace ok, Tiznow's seem to like the mud, great work the other day.
3. Big Brown - most talented in field, i just think he wears out down the stretch having to do too much from post 20.
This is a great "discussion" race, you can make a case for nearly every horse in the field, especially w/ the off-going likely.
Big Brown
"What happened is merely a sample of what might have happened, weighted by probability."
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http://www.venturageoscore.com/
No one horse really stands out to me, but I have HUGE reservations about Big Brown. I keep thinking about the quarter cracks....nonetheless...
I ain't laying any money down today, but if I was:
Colonel John, Pyro, Big Brown--trifecta box
Of course I will kick myself from here to eternity if that comes true....
I ain't laying any money down today, but if I was:
Colonel John, Pyro, Big Brown--trifecta box
Of course I will kick myself from here to eternity if that comes true....
A horse gallops with his lungs
Perseveres with his heart
And wins with his character. --Tesio
Perseveres with his heart
And wins with his character. --Tesio
Good deals:
4-Court Vision
15-Adriano
17-Cowboy cal
Horses I like:
4-Court Vision
8-Visionaire
10-Colonel John
20-Big Brown
Field ranked by what I think is their chance of winning:
1. Colonel John
2. Cowboy Cal
3. Big Brown
4. Court Vision
5. Monba
6. Adriano
7. Tale of Ekati
8. Eight Belles
9. Cool Coal Man
10. Z Humor
11. Denis of Cork
12. Visionaire
13. Recapturetheglory
14. Gayego
15. Pyro
16. Bob Black Jack
17. Z Fortune
18. Smooth Air
19. Big Truck
20. Anak Nakal
4-Court Vision
15-Adriano
17-Cowboy cal
Horses I like:
4-Court Vision
8-Visionaire
10-Colonel John
20-Big Brown
Field ranked by what I think is their chance of winning:
1. Colonel John
2. Cowboy Cal
3. Big Brown
4. Court Vision
5. Monba
6. Adriano
7. Tale of Ekati
8. Eight Belles
9. Cool Coal Man
10. Z Humor
11. Denis of Cork
12. Visionaire
13. Recapturetheglory
14. Gayego
15. Pyro
16. Bob Black Jack
17. Z Fortune
18. Smooth Air
19. Big Truck
20. Anak Nakal