Commercial Stallions under $15K

Discussion and analysis of thoroughbred stallions.

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soundfast
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Postby soundfast » Thu Oct 09, 2008 11:14 am

Congaree was super brilliant. He won $3,267,490. He is a multiple Grade1 winner. He won the Swaps S.(G1) and Wood Memorial at 3. He won the Cigar Mile H.(G1),Del Mar Breeders Cup H.,Lone Star Park H. at 4. He won the Hollywood Gold Cup(G1),Carter H.(G1),Cigar Mile H.(G1),San Antonio H., & San Pasquale H. at 5. Got his -3 ragozin doing 1 mile in 1:33.11. Was runner up for Horse Of The Year in 2004. Handsome is as handsome does. His first foals are 2 and he already has stakes winners. The dam side on some of his yearlings kept them from going higher. The Green Monkey sold for $16 million and did not win one race. He was commercial. There are many "commercial" horses that could win a halter class but flopped as race horses and at stud. Some people want horses that can win races not beauty contests. If "commercial" means can't run they deserve to sell cheap.

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Postby Ill-bred » Thu Oct 09, 2008 12:10 pm

If Congaree develops a reputation as a sire of great racehorses, then the commercial market will become more forgiving of his foals' conformational flaws.

The offset knees on all those Storm Cat babies are judged under an entirely different light than other horses!

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Postby AscotStud » Thu Oct 09, 2008 10:57 pm

Soundfast,

there is no point trying to tell anything to someone who wants to breed an inferior horse to "sell". The greatest downfall of our business is people who think like that. They can keep breeding to the Half Ours', Mr. Sekiguchi's and Green Monkeys making a few bucks while they destroy their mare 5 years down the road when she has 5 of racing age 3 to race and 1 winner. These kind of breeding practices have weakened the breed beyond repair and it's a shame.

Congaree could take all 3 of thoses chumps combined, but the sheep want to listen to whatever their "best friend" the stallion manager will tell them.

A horse is commercial for a reason, because someone is telling someone else to buy it, the problem for the last 15 years or more is that the morons out there are telling their clients to keep buying the crap...so they can make a bigger margain. And the trainers and owners are left to watch these underbred horses compete day after day.

In a perfect world people would breed a horse that if they couldn't sell they would have no problem racing themselves. I bet 90% of the people planning matings out there would not want to touch their potential foals they just created with a 10 foot pole after it goes through the ring.

I'm glad to say I'm in the 10%, and from the sound of it so are you Soundfast.
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Postby bdw0617 » Fri Oct 10, 2008 5:59 am

accuo,


the point with a horse like mr. s is that he had injury problems. who is to say he couldn't run?

he's nothing like TGM.. he was actually a pretty nice horse that got injuired early. being injuried does not make you any less or more of a sire.

you can look at it from one standopint.. in that he has not been stakes placed, and htere is no value there. that's fine. no harm in that.

you can also look at it and say " you know.. if he didn't get injuried, he could be a stakes winner". he very well could have been.

neither is wrong if you ask me. he has a hell of a pedigree and had ovbious talent.

you know as well as anyone else that a great race horse doesn't necessarily make a great sire. look at the top of the sires list. Distorted humor was an above avg, graded stakes horse but he wasn't by any stretch of the imagiation "great". Not for love for crying out loud the best he could do was 3rd in a grade 3 and he's a top 15 sire this year. Stormy Atlantic, silver deputy, and countless others out there, were not world beaters on the track, although Silver Deputy and dazing were undefeated.

Half ours, while very badly unsound, had undeniable talent when healthy. you can't fault someone for deciding to bred to him, just because you don't think it's wise.

look at my beloved ghostzapper. as great of a horse as he was... his yearlings aren't looking too hot.

what i am getting at is, you can't call a horse commercial or uncommercial utnil they actually do something. one way or the other. what you consider to not be a wise investment is to another person. that's what makes horse racing horse racing. if it was a standard blue print, we'd all be living in the beach on Orange County right now.
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Postby Dave C » Fri Oct 10, 2008 7:27 am

Whether a sire is commercial or not is determined entirely at the sales not the racetrack. It really doesn't matter whether his foals run, as long as they sell well the sire can be considered commercial.

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Postby Sock Monkey » Fri Oct 10, 2008 7:37 am

AscotStud wrote:In a perfect world people would breed a horse that if they couldn't sell they would have no problem racing themselves. I bet 90% of the people planning matings out there would not want to touch their potential foals they just created with a 10 foot pole after it goes through the ring.


You really think that many breeders are breeding something they have no faith in? I'm really surprised you think this way. Can you point to anything to back up your premise?

I know a lot of breeders who don't race, but it's due to personal preference (as is evidenced by probably the majority of posters on this BB, a lot of people like the horses more than they really like racing) or due to finances. It's not because they think they are putting duds or ticking bombs on the ground.

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Postby LB » Fri Oct 10, 2008 8:57 am

AscotStud wrote:there is no point trying to tell anything to someone who wants to breed an inferior horse to "sell". The greatest downfall of our business is people who think like that. They can keep breeding to the Half Ours', Mr. Sekiguchi's and Green Monkeys making a few bucks while they destroy their mare 5 years down the road when she has 5 of racing age 3 to race and 1 winner. These kind of breeding practices have weakened the breed beyond repair and it's a shame.

Congaree could take all 3 of thoses chumps combined, but the sheep want to listen to whatever their "best friend" the stallion manager will tell them.

A horse is commercial for a reason, because someone is telling someone else to buy it, the problem for the last 15 years or more is that the morons out there are telling their clients to keep buying the crap...so they can make a bigger margain.


Seriously???

C'mon guys, it's not rocket science and there is no conspiracy theory. The reasons that Congaree is not currently considered to be a commercial stallion are really pretty basic. He's missing a few of what are considered (by buyers) to be the necessary criteria:
A. He's by a sire who failed at stud himself and there have been very few stallions that succeeded in that position.
B. His conformation does not predispose buyers to believe that his offspring will be easy to keep sound (or to pinhook as early 2YOs).
C. He stands at a farm that does not generally support their yearlings at the sales.

Now--as soon as his offspring begin to prove themselves, all bets are off. There's nothing that makes a stallion commercial faster than having 2YOs burning up the track. As Ill-Bred pointed out above, if a horse can get the job done sire-wise, many things that were previously perceived as flaws can be forgiven.


In a perfect world people would breed a horse that if they couldn't sell they would have no problem racing themselves. I bet 90% of the people planning matings out there would not want to touch their potential foals they just created with a 10 foot pole after it goes through the ring.


Once again, seriously????

Who are these breeders you're talking about, because I've never met any of them. Are they for real? Everyone I know sells what they can ( to pay bills) and races the rest. That's the only way this game makes sense. I guess I'm glad I don't hang with the same crowd you do.

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Postby ASB » Fri Oct 10, 2008 10:19 am

AscotStud wrote:Soundfast,

there is no point trying to tell anything to someone who wants to breed an inferior horse to "sell". The greatest downfall of our business is people who think like that. They can keep breeding to the Half Ours', Mr. Sekiguchi's and Green Monkeys making a few bucks while they destroy their mare 5 years down the road when she has 5 of racing age 3 to race and 1 winner. These kind of breeding practices have weakened the breed beyond repair and it's a shame.

Congaree could take all 3 of thoses chumps combined, but the sheep want to listen to whatever their "best friend" the stallion manager will tell them.

A horse is commercial for a reason, because someone is telling someone else to buy it, the problem for the last 15 years or more is that the morons out there are telling their clients to keep buying the crap...so they can make a bigger margain. And the trainers and owners are left to watch these underbred horses compete day after day.

In a perfect world people would breed a horse that if they couldn't sell they would have no problem racing themselves. I bet 90% of the people planning matings out there would not want to touch their potential foals they just created with a 10 foot pole after it goes through the ring.

I'm glad to say I'm in the 10%, and from the sound of it so are you Soundfast.


You cannot be serious.

The question was, what are some COMMERCIAL stallions for 15k and under. Guess what? In Kentucky, there's not too many. They all have something working against them in that price bracket but a few will make it.

Mr. Sekiguchi has a fantastic physical and showed some real ability before getting hurt. I'm going to assume you're not privy to what caused the injury, yet you sure have no problem insinuating he's a cripple and a disease to the gene pool.

Let's not forget that his female family also produces stallions at an exceptional clip. Even the most under-performing of his family have sired graded winners of quality.

Let's be honest, Impeachment wasn't exactly the soundest of horses and his performance at stud hasn't been the most brilliant, yet you have no problem taking breeders' money. Pot meet kettle.

People have been ignoring physical compatibility for far too long. The history of the breed has been shaped by many an unsound stallion who provided brilliance, and in many cases, more soundness than he, himself had.

We all have a great responsibility as breeders, but that doesn't mean we have to ignore the core attributes of what makes this breed so special-- speed.

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Postby DDT » Fri Oct 10, 2008 10:51 am

AscotStud

Even if the total number of yearlings offered for sale out of each crop was as high as 40%, which it is not, that would leave 60% of the breeders had keeping and racing the foal in mind at the time of the mating, your 90% figure is way off base.

The best sires of the breed, getting the best mares available, average less than 10% stakes winners from foals, even worse, they average 60-65% starters from foals, and a little above 50% wnners from foals. With figures like that it is a wonder breeders find anybody who wants to buy the foals.

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Postby bdw0617 » Fri Oct 10, 2008 10:54 am

i have a question.

that number of racing foals from stat... isn't it a tad bit wheighted once you get towards the top? say you have a.. full sister to Street Sense. While she can hit the track, and is sound, she has not shown much ability so you don't race her, she's more vauable as a broodmare.

that counts against that stat just like a cripple does.
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Postby soundfast » Fri Oct 10, 2008 11:04 am

I agree with you Ascot Stud but there may not be quite that many "sheep." If Congaree's conformation is poor then how come he had 25 starts with 12 wins? He has 3 stakes winners already in his first crop. The trouble with "commercial" breeders and buyers is that they are buyers of BS and would not know a good horse if they fell over one. They are stupid enough to judge a stallion by his stud fee. They listen to bloodstock advisers who usually have something to gain by picking out certain horses who may not be able to stay sound long enough to race. Fragile bones are a hereditary defect that you cannot see. Half Ours had a fracture and his sire Unbridled's Song also had a fracture and Eight Belles had 2. Fragile bones are the worst hereditary defect and most likely to lead to fatal or permanent injuries. Every time somebody listens to the BS about how a horse "might" have turned out if he stayed sound he is contributing to the downfall of the breed and racing itself. AP says that thousands of horses have been euthanized because of fractures. It is not normal for a horse to fracture any bone just from running. The excuses need to stop. Horses are dying every day. Too many times "commercial" = unsound broke down retired early or got euthanized. Breeders need to stop lying to themselves and each other. Most "commercial" stallions are not superior in most cases they are inferior. I looked at a lot of catalog pages for Keeneland,OBS, & Fasig Tipton. More and more mares seem unable to produce good runners who can stay sound and a lot have offspring that failed to race. Hopefully there will be less and less people who buy the BS and do their home work and have an IQ high enough to realize that they need to get the facts for themselves and stop listening to those who have something to gain by lying. Mr. S had 4 starts with 2 seconds. He did not have as much speed as many other stallions and neither did some of his family. A good physical is a sound physical. My stallion was faster than Half Ours and is a great looking horse who had 53 starts. His sire set a New World Record for 7.5 furlongs in 1:27. He had the physicals to stay sound.

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Postby AscotStud » Fri Oct 10, 2008 12:46 pm

I once again agree with Soundfast. Also my 90% figure was "slightly" over stated, but I'm sure there are many out there. The agents want to get that sale and what happens after is not going to matter for 3 years.

As for ASB's comments on Impeachment he ran 11 times from the time he broke his maiden in December until he suffered a suspensory injury in the Travers 8 months later. He ran in all 3 triple crown races (the only horse to do so that year, placing in the Derby and Preakness) and also ran in the Haskel and Travers (5 grade 1's in a row). That is a very tough schedule for any horse let a lone a 3 year old, to say he was unsound is funny. He was retired when the syndicate that owned him decided to send him off to stud (and take the money) rather than bring him back.
His advertised fee is $2,000, and pretty much everyone who breeds to him does to race, he is as correct as they come and physically outstanding and throws it in his foals, but he isn't a commercial sire, even in our small regional market, nor did we expect him to be. At that price We aren't ripping anyone off, expecially once you add in different incentives and deals for return breeders.
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Postby DDT » Fri Oct 10, 2008 12:46 pm

bdw

The stat is the stat, it makes no difference why a horse does not start, in the long run it averages out. Remember, I was talking about the top sires, when you consider the entire crop each year the percentages are much lower for stakes winners, 2-3%, and the average for starters from foals goes down a little. For example, based on available statistics, if you look at the numbers from the Keeneland Sept yearling sale for 2008, and because it is a sale that annually draws the top yearlings the averages will be a little higher, I could use exact numbers but for this example lets say that out of the 5,550, after the outs and RNA's you had 3,400 actually sell. Statistically speaking, about 2,200 of those will make it to the races, and 1,100 will win at least one race of some kind and less than 40 will win at least one stakes race of some value.

The stats may be a little better at the top of the game, but looking at Darley and Coolmore as a guide, it remains very difficult to buy the right yearling, even when available funds are unlimited.

DDT

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Postby ASB » Fri Oct 10, 2008 12:58 pm

AscotStud wrote:I once again agree with Soundfast. Also my 90% figure was "slightly" over stated, but I'm sure there are many out there. The agents want to get that sale and what happens after is not going to matter for 3 years.

As for ASB's comments on Impeachment he ran 11 times from the time he broke his maiden in December until he suffered a suspensory injury in the Travers 8 months later. He ran in all 3 triple crown races (the only horse to do so that year, placing in the Derby and Preakness) and also ran in the Haskel and Travers (5 grade 1's in a row). That is a very tough schedule for any horse let a lone a 3 year old, to say he was unsound is funny. He was retired when the syndicate that owned him decided to send him off to stud (and take the money) rather than bring him back.
His advertised fee is $2,000, and pretty much everyone who breeds to him does to race, he is as correct as they come and physically outstanding and throws it in his foals, but he isn't a commercial sire, even in our small regional market, nor did we expect him to be. At that price We aren't ripping anyone off, expecially once you add in different incentives and deals for return breeders.


You replied like I thought you would... by saying the number of his starts and the type of injury he had may have had a lot more to due to schedule and environmental factors than genetic physical issues.

That's the point I was trying to convey with both Half Ours and Mr. S. You can't look at number or starts or a press release about an injury and come away with the whole story.

You need to look at the horse as an individual and then compare him to your mare physically.

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Postby ASB » Fri Oct 10, 2008 1:03 pm

And for the record, just because Congaree started quite a few times (relatively), does not mean he has good conformation. In fact, you'd be hard pressed to find someone who thinks he has anything but fair to poor conformation traits, especially up front.

Horses run through poor faults every day. Some of the biggest names in pedigrees were anything but well-conformed.

I'll never forget looking at a major and well-known broodmare dispersals and walking away thinking "how in the hell did these mares throw anything that could even walk straight" and yet, they were producers of champions and graded winners.

Again, it's about the marriage of faults to strengths and hoping for the best.