Feed Costs

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griff
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Feed Costs

Postby griff » Wed Nov 12, 2008 7:52 pm

Gas is now below $2.00 per gallion and although grain prices have also fallen to half what they were earlier this year I have not seen much of a price decrease in horse feed.

12/2008 Oat are now $2.30 per bu [40 # per bu]
12/2008 corn is now $3.69 per bu [60# per bu]
12/2008 soybeans are now $8.85 per bu [ 60 # per bu] .

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Keith
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High Grain Prices

Postby Keith » Thu Nov 13, 2008 5:31 am

It will backfire on the grain companies as more and more people sell their horses or give them away. Every big company now wants help from the government especially the banks and big car companies. How have the credit card companies helped out the struggling person that has lost their job by slapping them with big fees and high interest rates. The bank wonders why people have defaulted on credit cards and home loans. It has all been a domino effect. If a person can not afford a bill lets charge them more money. The same can be said for grain prices as less an less people will raise horses and there will be less demand and it is all about greed that has put our market in the situation it is in now.

Everyone has been been nickeled and dimed over the past year that many people are tapped out and discouraged when it comes to spending. People have had to resort to using their credit cards as many of them are maxed out and credit has tightened and it is hard to spend money when it is not there. People need jobs and the military is hiring so why not pay the big bucks to those that serve in our military. In our country teachers and the military are so underpaid and underappreciated. Tax the rich more and give to the poor is not the solution. People need jobs. Giving people money is like a band-aid, it may help temporarily but does not solve the problem. Regulate the banks on the fees and interest rates they charge on people. Regulate the insurance companies. It is law that we pay our car insurance on time but when it comes time for the insurance companies to pay they often take their time and try to find a loophole. If people need assistance from the government community service should be required if that person is physically able.

Sorry to get off the subject but it angers me as grain prices continued to rise with gas prices but as gas prices fall they are still sticking it to us. We don't have a choice because we have to buy grain so we really do not have much choice as what we are going to pay. High grain prices has already helped influence people to quit breeding horses or get out of the business all together because it costs too much to raise a horse to sell at a breeders auction and bring a price of $100 like some of the horses that sold at the Louisiana Breeders Auction.

Businesses and customers need to work together so we can all make a living because if customers do not spend businesses fail and people are laid off. It affects the global market because if we do not spend we do not buy our products from other countries like China and Saudia Arabia. I agree we need to give huge tax breaks to companies that make products in the US. Give huge tax breaks to American Car manufacturers who make their cars in the US. Give tax breaks to the consumer who buys american made products. It all really boils down to that everything has gone up accept wages so lets make it more affordable for the middle class to get an education because alot of times you either need to be poor or rich to get an education and is that really fair. We also need to better market our industry because why can't horse racing be one of the leading sports rather than rely on casinos?

Keith

zinn21
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Postby zinn21 » Thu Nov 13, 2008 7:28 am

Grain prices should start falling.

The economy looks bad. Years and years of borrowing on home equity to buy the SUV's etc. that created a smoke and mirrors affluence has evaporated. We are deflating world wide with the U.S. leading the way.

The Keeneland sales declines indicate the above for the racing game. If the bailouts fail to stop deflating home values, prices/income/commodities/jobs will continue their steady decline.

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Postby Airmont » Thu Nov 13, 2008 8:02 am

As a retired feed store manager, I can tell you that they are struggling also. Feed increases had already damaged their business because of a huge selloff of cattle(at least in the southeast). Alot of young managers
don't have farming experience and only see the bottom line, they don't think about what will happen past this year's balance sheet and this year's potential bonus (personal rant). All they understand is "margins". That being said, alot of places locked in their prices before they came down and therefore there will be a delay in when consumers see a drop in retail price. For those with more than one supplier nearby, this is the time to use one against the other and negotiate a better price.

P.S.- with any livestock selloff, it is projected to take 3-5 years for numbers to come back up. In this economy, I project it will be closer to 5-7 years which will more than likely mean the failure of many feed outlets.
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Sock Monkey
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Postby Sock Monkey » Thu Nov 13, 2008 8:05 am

I was pleasantly surprised to see one brand of my feed (Horseman's Edge) had come down .50 a bag this week. It's still ridiculously high, but I'll take any movement in the downward direction. Honestly, I'm still just glad not to see it continue to rise each week like it did over the summer. That was nuts!

The other question is: will all the other charges that rose due to increased feed and gas prices (trainer and boarding dayrates, farriers and vet farm charges, vanning, etc.) go down if fuel stays lower and feed prices drop or will they stay higher? :wink:

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Postby griff » Thu Nov 13, 2008 8:21 am

zinn21

Grain prices have already fell 50% from their highs.

And someone said a 50 # bag of horse feed had fell 50 cents or approximately 3%.. Maybe the price of "grain by-products" has not yet decreased enough to justify a meaningful price reduction in bagged feed.

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Postby majxmom » Thu Nov 13, 2008 11:59 am

People should remember that the grain you use all through the year was harvested at one time when gas prices were still high. Stored grain goes up in cost with the storage throughout the winter. It will cost less in fuel to deliver it to feed stores, but all of the other costs are already paid in. If the prices go down at the feed store, it probably means that some business took a big hit just because of the drop in demand.
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Postby griff » Thu Nov 13, 2008 12:10 pm

Majxmom

You are missing the point.. Grain prices have already droped 50% from what they were last summer..

And the harvest time for corn and soybeans is August, Sept & oct..

Oats are harvested in the late spring but they did not go up as high as corn anyway..

Lastly, I've often wondered why the price of corn, which I hope is not in my horse feed, was blamed for the increasd price of horse feed.

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Postby zinn21 » Thu Nov 13, 2008 1:48 pm

Griff wrote: "You are missing the point.. Grain prices have already droped 50% from what they were last summer.. "

Griff, are you saying a bag of oats is half the price it was a few months ago this summer? Oat prices haven't dropped 50% here in Northern Cal. Straw is selling at $6-6.50 a bale . Alfalfa is $12-16 a bale; $12 if you load and unload yourself.

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Postby Airmont » Thu Nov 13, 2008 2:08 pm

Zinn,

I believe Griff means "wholesale cost" -the price it is trading for on the grain markets.
"You cannot reason a man out of a position he did not reason himself into" - Ben Franklin

"The problem with socialism, is that, eventually you run out of other people's money"- Margaret Thatcher

griff
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Postby griff » Thu Nov 13, 2008 2:32 pm

Google "Chicago Board of Trade" and you will find that the December spot price of oats is $230 per 100 bu. The Oats delivered last October were just a tad higher but that still means the feed companies paid less that $3.00 for the 50# of oats you are buying at your feed store.

I know there must be a mark up as the feed companies and dealers and truckers must also make a living but that's a hell of a make up, especially when you consider the feed companies are dealing in bulk.

And, I suspect they are paying far less for the "grain-by-products" they add to the horse feed you are buying; i.e., "gain-by-products" is the chaff, hulls and straw they grind up and add. The next time you buy horse feed make sure "grian-by-products" is not the the first ingrediant listed.

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Postby Tiz » Thu Nov 13, 2008 3:48 pm

I'm with you, griff. I think the price is driven to a large degree by greed, and the fact you can't not use the product. I figure that feed dealers better make their big money while they can, because so many animals are being culled because of the ridiculous increases, they're killing their future market.
I own a small business that uses wholesale farm products. Those products have increased a bit due to higher fuel costs, but they have not doubled and nearly tripled like feed costs have. Why not?

I don't feed sweet feed because of the "by products" they're made of. I figure that may mean whatever is swept up off the floor, glued together with molasses.

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Postby Karie » Fri Nov 14, 2008 5:27 am

Feed prices Suck.
yesterday I had ran out of bedding. Its on sale where I normally buy it $3.99 40lbs pine pelletted bedding (sale at TSC regular price $5.48) (I got a raincheck)
So I had to go else where to get it.
on Monday I went to a small feed store. They had 30lb bags for $5.99 buy 10 get on free. Expensive but I needed it.
So I didn't get enough and TSC was still out I stopped at another different feed store. Desperate again.. I had to pay $6.99 a bag for a 40 lb bag.
What a joke.
I also planned on getting Omolene 200, I asked for the price per bag and was quoted $20 a bag!!!!!!!!!!!! I am not kidding.
The small feed store said Omolene 200 just dropped to 13.79 a bag!!
I cant believe that. $20 a bag. What a joke. I told them to KEEP IT.

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Postby Sock Monkey » Fri Nov 14, 2008 7:54 am

I've also noticed that it's the horse feed that has risen more than other types of feed. All stock, gamecock feed (I live in the south - it's a big seller), goat feed - they've all gone up but not nearly as big of a leap as horse feed. My suspicion is that some marketing genius realized horse people are less likely to get rid of their critters so they will take more of an increase.

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Postby Dave C » Fri Nov 14, 2008 8:45 am

griff wrote:Google "Chicago Board of Trade" and you will find that the December spot price of oats is $230 per 100 bu. The Oats delivered last October were just a tad higher but that still means the feed companies paid less that $3.00 for the 50# of oats you are buying at your feed store.

I know there must be a mark up as the feed companies and dealers and truckers must also make a living but that's a hell of a make up, especially when you consider the feed companies are dealing in bulk.

And, I suspect they are paying far less for the "grain-by-products" they add to the horse feed you are buying; i.e., "gain-by-products" is the chaff, hulls and straw they grind up and add. The next time you buy horse feed make sure "grian-by-products" is not the the first ingrediant listed.

griff
Keep in mind that these are futures prices and are used by hedgers and speculators. They don't necessarily reflect the price that farmers receive or feed stores have to pay. Much of the very high prices on CBOT in the early spring and summer was the result of speculative hedge fund (leveraged) buying. Much of the decline is from the speculators liquidating their positions. Both price movements had nothing to do with the supply/demand situation for grains. Producers are receiving higher prices for their oats right now than is being reflected by CBOT contracts because they either forward contracted at higher prices in the summer or are in a position to not sell if the feed mill refuses to pay. Their is little to no real economy business being conducted at the prices indicated by the futures market. A terrible side effect of inappropriate regulation.