Finish the sentence please...

Discussion and analysis of thoroughbred stallions.

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going4stamina
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Postby going4stamina » Fri Nov 28, 2008 2:01 pm

I don't know who the mare is, but an unproven horse with an excellent pedigree and who is a G1 mile winner is Corinthian. Also had a 119 Beyer (for what it's worth). I peg him as the next major sire to come up.

He is at 40K. Good Luck!

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Re: Finish the sentence please...

Postby madelyn » Fri Nov 28, 2008 2:09 pm

dray33 wrote:Forgetting about the entire STORM CAT line, and keeping with sires UNDER 50K... please finish the following sentence:

If I were breeding to RACE, the sire that seems to throw consistent, flat-out runners, is ____________________________."

Thanks.


This question precludes the use of stallions who have nothing on the track.
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....

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Postby bdw0617 » Fri Nov 28, 2008 6:11 pm

going4stamina wrote:I don't know who the mare is, but an unproven horse with an excellent pedigree and who is a G1 mile winner is Corinthian. Also had a 119 Beyer (for what it's worth). I peg him as the next major sire to come up.

He is at 40K. Good Luck!



I think cornthian is the best stud prosect america has had in a long time. I love him. love absolutly everythihng about him.
"When the solution is simple, God is answering.”
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Postby bdw0617 » Fri Nov 28, 2008 6:13 pm

going4stamina wrote:I don't know who the mare is, but an unproven horse with an excellent pedigree and who is a G1 mile winner is Corinthian. Also had a 119 Beyer (for what it's worth). I peg him as the next major sire to come up.

He is at 40K. Good Luck!



I think cornthian is the best stud prosect america has had in a long time. I love him. love absolutly everythihng about him.
"When the solution is simple, God is answering.”

- Einstein

kimberley mine
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Postby kimberley mine » Fri Nov 28, 2008 9:06 pm

Altanbarr wrote:Regarding Pleasant Tap, I do not think it is fair to take a horse's top earner out of the analysis even if the earings are somewhat inflated because they came in restricted races. How would you account for all the state-bred earnings for sires? This is a jackpot game. If a sire produces a jackpot horse, especially when he produces more than one (see Premium Tap, David Junior, Tiago), the sire deserves credit.


The earnings for Tap Dance City aren't somewhat inflated, they're greater than Tiago, David Junior, and Premium Tap combined. They're so great that they skew Pleasant Tap's average earnings for all his runners upwards by $20,000.

If you're trying to do an apples-to-apples comparison, you have to take out the orange.

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Postby Danzig » Fri Nov 28, 2008 9:25 pm

Regardless of Tap Dance City, Pleasant Colony maintains an excellent APEX A rating of approximately 2.00. The beauty of Oppenheim's APEX ratings are that they smooth out the effects of one high money earner and the subsequent skew one would have to a sire's AEI.

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Postby Bid » Sat Nov 29, 2008 5:13 am

I didn't research anything but Mutakddim seems to sire a lot of winners. He has 70 black type from 9 crops. He's 12,500 at Hill & dale.

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Postby Bid » Sat Nov 29, 2008 5:16 am

Also forgot Theatrical @ 35K. Sorry if anyone mentioned him already.

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Postby Altanbarr » Sat Nov 29, 2008 7:58 am

I Googled Apex ratings and found the following from March 2008. Not for Love #16. Pretty good for a regional sire.

THE TOP 25 F1996-B2004 SIRES

- Oppenheim's Subjective Rankings (Excluding Sires 18yo & Older)

A Rnr Rank Pct A’s Rank

RANK SIRE YR HIS SIRE 1st Fls ST Index A Index Foals Pct A's

1 Distorted Humor 1993 Forty Niner 2000 Ky 3.70 2 9.38 1

2 Smart Strike 1992 Mr. Prospector 1998 Ky 3.87 1 9.35 2

3 Pivotal 1993 Polar Falcon 1998 GB 3.16 10 6.26 16

4 Awesome Again 1994 Deputy Minister 2000 Ky 3.21 9 5.71 25

5 Galileo 1998 Sadler's Wells 2003 Ire 3.32 8 4.88 52

6 Unbridled's Song 1993 Unbridled 1998 Ky 3.09 13 6.70 6

7 Dansili 1996 Danehill 2002 GB 2.48 30 6.34 13

8 Giant's Causeway 1997 Storm Cat 2002 Ky 2.73 20 6.42 12

9 Montjeu 1996 Sadler's Wells 2002 Ire 2.70 23 4.17 80

10 Street Cry 1998 Machiavellian 2004 Ky 3.33 7 5.71 25

11 Mr. Greeley 1992 Gone West 1997 Ky 1.79 78 5.14 38

12 Pulpit 1994 A.P. Indy 1999 Ky 2.39 39 6.54 8

13 Forestry 1996 Storm Cat 2001 Ky 3.16 11 5.71 25

14 Danehill Dancer 1993 Danehill 1999 Ire 2.40 37 5.51 29

15 Chester House 1995 Mr. Prospector 2002 Dead 2.52 27 7.62 3

16 Not for Love 1990 Mr. Prospector 1997 Md 2.29 44 7.37 4

17 Langfuhr 1992 Danzig 1999 Ky 2.50 29 5.54 28

18 Successful Appeal 1996 Valid Appeal 2002 Ky 3.33 6 5.91 23

19 Cape Cross 1994 Green Desert 2001 Ire 2.24 46 3.78 101

20 Singspiel 1992 In the Wings 1999 GB 2.45 34 4.41 68

21 Medicean 1997 Machiavellian 2003 GB 2.31 42 4.17 80

22 Johannesburg 1999 Hennessy 2004 Ky 2.48 30 3.60 112

23 Invincible Spirit 1997 Green Desert 2004 Ire 2.23 47 3.93 91

24 Rock of Gibraltar 1999 Danehill 2004 Ire 2.44 35 6.09 20

25 Lemon Drop Kid 1996 Kingmambo 2002 Ky 2.46 33 5.41 32

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Postby bdw0617 » Sat Nov 29, 2008 8:44 am

kimberley mine wrote:
Altanbarr wrote:Regarding Pleasant Tap, I do not think it is fair to take a horse's top earner out of the analysis even if the earings are somewhat inflated because they came in restricted races. How would you account for all the state-bred earnings for sires? This is a jackpot game. If a sire produces a jackpot horse, especially when he produces more than one (see Premium Tap, David Junior, Tiago), the sire deserves credit.


The earnings for Tap Dance City aren't somewhat inflated, they're greater than Tiago, David Junior, and Premium Tap combined. They're so great that they skew Pleasant Tap's average earnings for all his runners upwards by $20,000.

If you're trying to do an apples-to-apples comparison, you have to take out the orange.



this is an interesting concept.

let's dive into why tap dance city is an organge.

sired by pleasant tap? check

is in fact a thoroughbred? check

runs in races where they run for money? check

... HE'S JUST GOOD.

YES IT SKEWS THE POT, BUT THAT'S WHAT GOOD HORSES DO. CURLIN SKEWS IT FOR SMART STRIKE, (sorry for caps), smarty jones skews it for elusive quality and so on and so forth.

why do you take out the best horse, simply becuase he did exactlywhat you want him to do?

also, as the poster eluded to, if you are going to take out really good horses that skew the pot so to speak, why stop there?

we shouldn't count the green money towards what forestry's numbers, becuase he really, really sucked. that's not a "true" indication of what foresty is capable of doing, so let's take him out.

let's take out eight belles for unbrided song becuase she broke down and she did not earn what she was capable of earning.

let's take out magnifcance for stormy atlantic because I think she was mismanaged for the last year of her campaign.

see where I'm going? you open up an entire can of worms. tap dance city is just a very very good horse that is sired by a very consistant sire.
"When the solution is simple, God is answering.”

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Postby LB » Sat Nov 29, 2008 10:33 am

bdw0617 wrote:
kimberley mine wrote:
Altanbarr wrote:Regarding Pleasant Tap, I do not think it is fair to take a horse's top earner out of the analysis even if the earings are somewhat inflated because they came in restricted races. How would you account for all the state-bred earnings for sires? This is a jackpot game. If a sire produces a jackpot horse, especially when he produces more than one (see Premium Tap, David Junior, Tiago), the sire deserves credit.


The earnings for Tap Dance City aren't somewhat inflated, they're greater than Tiago, David Junior, and Premium Tap combined. They're so great that they skew Pleasant Tap's average earnings for all his runners upwards by $20,000.

If you're trying to do an apples-to-apples comparison, you have to take out the orange.



this is an interesting concept.

let's dive into why tap dance city is an organge.

sired by pleasant tap? check

is in fact a thoroughbred? check

runs in races where they run for money? check

... HE'S JUST GOOD.

YES IT SKEWS THE POT, BUT THAT'S WHAT GOOD HORSES DO. CURLIN SKEWS IT FOR SMART STRIKE, (sorry for caps), smarty jones skews it for elusive quality and so on and so forth.

why do you take out the best horse, simply becuase he did exactlywhat you want him to do?

also, as the poster eluded to, if you are going to take out really good horses that skew the pot so to speak, why stop there?

we shouldn't count the green money towards what forestry's numbers, becuase he really, really sucked. that's not a "true" indication of what foresty is capable of doing, so let's take him out.

let's take out eight belles for unbrided song becuase she broke down and she did not earn what she was capable of earning.

let's take out magnifcance for stormy atlantic because I think she was mismanaged for the last year of her campaign.

see where I'm going? you open up an entire can of worms. tap dance city is just a very very good horse that is sired by a very consistant sire.


Here's why Tap Dance City is an orange. The sole reason his earnings are so enormous is because he ran in restricted company in Japan. The purse structure there is entirely different than ours: a single maiden win can earn a horse $75,000, a decent allowance type horse can easily earn several hundred thousand in a year.

And yes, Curlin's win in Dubai skewed Smart Strike's numbers. But at least Curlin ran there in open company. All horses and owners from anywhere in the world were welcome to compete. Japanese racing and breeding is very heavily restricted--unless you're a Japanese citizen (not easy to accomplish unless you're of Japanese heritage and were born there) you're out of luck.

So Tap Dance City won his money in races where 95% of the world's TBs were ineligible to run against him. In my mind, that makes him an orange.

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Postby ASB » Sat Nov 29, 2008 1:21 pm

LB is completely correct. Japanese purses are heavily skewed and weighted. I've seen horses in Japan never win a race and win 200k+ in US dollars.

Its no coincidence the biggest international outfits in the world have been actively trying to get owners licenses in Japan.

This also brings up another issue when a Japanese-based stallion stands stud in America. A horse like Hat Trick is interesting but you really have to question his actual talent and what he would have accomplished against open competition.

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Postby Hotwalker » Sat Nov 29, 2008 1:36 pm

in this scenario, I like Put It Back, Holy Bull and Point Given. They are all under $15K too. In the case of HB and PG, you're getting great speed and distance capability.

As far as sires without runners yet, Purim really intrigues me with synthetics now more prevalent.

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Postby dray33 » Sat Nov 29, 2008 5:01 pm

I'll come clean. I asked the question first an foremost, without a mare in mind. The reason: I am tired the results of my purchases ending up as "sprinters" and don't want my breeding to produce 5 furlong types. Granted, much of my current stock is "sprinty", but I dont want to breed speed to speed. I want to "Aim" for two-turns.

That said, I might be retiring FOR FREE within a few races, and was considering who to breed her to that offers stamina and distance. She is by FORESTRY, out of FRIO TOWN (kerosene mare, dam of BEAUS TOWN). She might be able to go another year racing (I hope). Well see.

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Postby dray33 » Sat Nov 29, 2008 5:04 pm

I like many of the suggestions here: Slew City Slew, Exchange Rate, Rahy, Malibu Moon, More Than Ready, Cherokee Run, Dixieland Band, Pleasant Tap and Theatrical are all great choices.

Knowing the potential mare, any thoughts? Race horse, not sales horse.