northern afleet

[Derby2004]

i am usually a fan of northern afleet. but his first ky crop of twy year olds is underperforming versus his previous 2 year olds. current two yos are winners at a 42% clip from starters versus 46% from his previous crops. current aei is 1.23 while his lifetime is 1.43 with 2 yos. what happened?

[KMO_racing]

I would think he was a novalty for a few years after coming out of Fl, so he was bred to a better book of mares,recently his book of mares aren't as productive as his past. Now they just need numbers. He still has descent winners but more blue collar mares. This is a cruel business. if you don't have the flavor of the month you get lower caliber mares. All in all he is very respectable and a very useful sire.

[ASB]

I believe his current 2yos are out of his best Ky mares. He was always overrated after Afleet Alex.

With that said, people were looking at him as a possible classics sire so I wouldn't be surprised if a big chunk of his 2yos are out of stouter mares, hence slower maturing juveniles.

[griff]

I don't think the differience between 42% and 46% is meaningful; this is horse racing.

griff

[aardvark]

the number that matters is his 2006 fee was 20K, his 2009 fee is 7.5K

[bcassidy]

O' Ye of little faith-----(get the seasonal humor) Northern Afleet will continue to prove himself an outstanding sire-----Look at his position on the general sires list as more concrete proof of his quality. I am still quite confident an exceptional runner or two will materialize in the next six months or so. This guy really delivers the goods and for the "breed to race" breeder---he is a dream come true--- they even lowered his stud fee to 7,500 for the 2009 breeding season---- What a beautiful Christmas gift!
On a more serious note I am still quite confident that he will deliver more above average to excellent runners in the near future. With any luck I may have 1 or two myself....

[tbrace]

He is on the general sire list because of Afleet Alex's earnings. He is not a great sire, and his daughters are all quite small, and throw small babies.

Not a good combination.

[bcassidy]

tbrace---Excuse me but I think you have bad information. The general sire list for 2008 is a ranking of stallions with horses running only in 2008. Northern Afleets' foals have earned over 5 million for the year without any stand-out horse---which is exactly why I like him so much. Take away the leading earner from many stallions ranked above him on this list and see where they would fall in the rankings.
Based totally on the statistics from the general sires list, stud fee, number of runners, etc who would you rather breed to on the list?
In my opinion---it is hands down Northern Afleet----and that doesn't even include the most significant statistic not included on this list---- the Cl of the mares covered. I would venture to say that Northern Afleets' Cl is still significantly below many stallions on this list which are ranked above him.
Northern Afleet's still flies below many peoples radar screen which is why he continues to be great value for the breed to race breeder. Outstanding value and the ability to get you a great horse. What more can you ask for?

[bcassidy]

aardvark----you are correct----those are the numbers that matter---but I am sure if you want to pay more they would be willing to accept your donation.
It's always amusing when someone wants to knock a particular stallion by referring to his low stud fee as if the more you spend for a stallion the better they are----we should all be very happy this isn't true for obvious reasons.
tbrace---The same argument applies to size as well. It appears to be used as an inherent weakness when nothing can be further from the truth. First off, he doesn't throw only smaller foals and even if he did----- that wouldn't matter much to me anyway. All things being equal I would rather have a smaller foal than a larger foal----they generally stay much sounder.
If you want to knock Northern Afleet for a physical fault he tends to pass on to his foals----many tend to have long pasterns....but they can still run!

[aardvark]

Brendan,

not knocking Northern Afleet as a sire. At 20K I would expect a sire to be commercial. You can bet Northern's auction prices will reflect his new 7.5K fee. At 20k I expect a potentially commercial foal. At his current fee your 2006 breeding is probably a breed to race yearling or maybe a two year old commercial prospect if its posts some good preps. a 12.5k reduction is hard on those 2006 breeders. Maybe a stallion owner can explain how you get repeat business from those 2006 breeders that invested in you?

[bcassidy]

aardvark---I get the point you are making but I don't think the 10- 20k range in Ky is very commercial---although it is knocking on the door.
I would suspect many breeders choose Northern Afleet for his ability to give you a very good race horse not an excellent sales prospect. Clearly he still has some upside potential to do that---look at Smart Strike----but I would absolutely consider him a very solid breed to race stallion and not a commercial stallion.
I am not sure what the breakdown of posters on this board would represent but I am guessing there are many more breed to race types on this board than commercial breeders.
It might be an interesting poll to conduct.

[ASB]

I have a nice, young Saint Ballado mare who I'm probably going to send to him. Her first is stakes-placed.

Saint Ballado has been an underwhelming broodmare sire so far but his best bred daughter are just now a few foals into their broodmare careers. But Northern Afleet has had some real early success with SB mares.

[bcassidy]

what's her name? I would love to look at the resulting pedigree.

Northern Afleet is an outstanding sire and without knowing more about the bottom side of your mare's pedigree I can't comment any further. Obviously Saint Ballado has the potential to be a great broodmare stallion to cross with NA. Best of luck to you and your mare. I hope you get a beautiful foal from him.

[ASB]

You have a pm.