King Cugat

Discussion and analysis of thoroughbred stallions.

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bdw0617
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Postby bdw0617 » Wed Jan 07, 2009 11:58 am

doing alot of research on him latley. anyone who thought king caugat was going to 1. throw fast 2YO's 2. throw a ton of speed deserved to get robbed.

KC is a shakisesque late closer with tons of stanima. He didn't come into his own until he was 4 but showed flashes that he could run, like finishing in the monty in the Secretariat
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kimberley mine
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Postby kimberley mine » Wed Jan 07, 2009 6:39 pm

Be careful if you're using his aussie progeny in your analyses.

Not only are you dealing with an entirely different racing clime and genetics, you also have the effects of the EI outbreak in there.

I note that of his best down-under runners, three have Sir Tristram up close, and one is out of a 3/4 sister to the excellent runner Kaapstad. That's some serious mare power there, also something you have to consider.

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Postby bdw0617 » Wed Jan 07, 2009 6:46 pm

kimberley mine wrote:Be careful if you're using his aussie progeny in your analyses.

Not only are you dealing with an entirely different racing clime and genetics, you also have the effects of the EI outbreak in there.

I note that of his best down-under runners, three have Sir Tristram up close, and one is out of a 3/4 sister to the excellent runner Kaapstad. That's some serious mare power there, also something you have to consider.


I went back and looked at all his races. I've seen his kids race but you can't use that as a baramoter becuase he's just half the equation.


you have to excuse me but could you tell me more or show me where I could learn more about these two horses you mentioned? my knowlege of australian pedigree's is not that much. I do know that the best sire in Australia, Redoute's Choice is from the Best in Show dam line. that's about it.
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Postby kimberley mine » Wed Jan 07, 2009 9:58 pm

General on King Cugat:

http://www.stallions.com.au/list/King_Cugat.asp

King Cugat's best runners and overall stats:

http://www.stallions.com.au/list/king_cugat_T20R.asp
http://www.stallions.com.au/list/king_cugat_CA.asp

On the Top 20 Runners page, next to each runner's pedigree, on the right side, is a blue "P." Click on it and you get a 5-generation pedigree for the horse listed.

The dominant--and I mean dominant--genetic influence in Australia is the Irish import Star Kingdom (familiar in North America via Noholme II and his son Nodouble). Important descendents of Star Kingdom include former champion sire and champion broodmare sire Bletchingly, the high-class stallion Marscay, Biscay, Kaoru Star, Noholme (in Australia via Semipalatinsk), Luskin Star, etc. Star Kingdom is as endemic in the Australian/New Zealand thoroughbred as Nasrullah is in the US thoroughbred. The influence of Star Kingdom has faded a lot since Danehill arrived, but you'll find him via Canny Lad (broodmare sire of Redoute's Choice), Show a Heart, Hurricane Sky, and a couple of others. This is from Canny Lad's page, detailing Bletchingly's accomplishments: http://www.stallions.com.au/list/canny_lad_ML.asp

Sir Tristram was imported from Ireland to New Zealand back in the 1970s and turned into a monster sire. His son Zabeel is one of the all-time leaders in New Zealand and Australia, dethroning even the might Danehill more than once, despite breeding, oh, half as many mares and only breeding on Southern Hemisphere time. He was the equivalent of Sadlers Wells (high-quality, major influence of stamina and class) in Aus/NZ for many years. If you see Sir Tristram on the mare line, that's an indication of a seriously high-class mare. This page is related to one of his sons, but it's a partial list of what Sir Tristram achieved at stud:
http://www.stallions.com.au/list/devaraja_ML.asp

Danehill needs no introduction, but the influence of Danehill in Australia just can't be understated. I think at the time he was imported to Australia, the bloodstock there needed some fresh blood, and what was available suited him to a tee. Like Sir Tristram, if you see Danehill on the mare line, that's generally an indication of a high-class mare.

Other uniquely Aus/NZ strains include:

Tom Fool through Silly Season and his son Lunchtime, surviving via the hot young sire Econsul (standing in NZ), his champion sire grandsire Snippets, and so on. Canny Lad is out of a Silly Season-line mare.

Djebel via Century, Centaine, and Rubiton. This male line is nearly extinct, but there is plenty of this bloodline down under.

The sireline currently dominant in Australia is, beyond a doubt, Danehill.

On to King Cugat:

At a glance, I'm not impressed with his stats down under, either. He has a Gr-1 winner (Devil Moon) and...and...two listed winners and a couple of "city winners" (the equivalent of well-performing allowance horses) and not a heck of a lot else. I draw your attention to the following:

Entered Stud in 2002.
Sire of 220 runners, 134 winners (60.9%), 6 stakeswinners (2.7%), 4 stakesplaced (1.8%).
Sire of the winners of over $AUS9.6 m. inc:


The information above is for both his NH and SH crops, current to the 12th of October, 2007, so it's a bit out of date.

Tease that number out a little bit more, and you find that two runners--Seaside Retreat and Devil Moon--are responsible for about 20% of his total earnings.

We've had a discussion about taking out the top earners of a stallion before, and it is a perfectly acceptable statistical method of determining whether one or two large outliers make a big difference in the overall statistical picture. With Pleasant Tap, there was one horse who was such an outlier that he skewed his total progeny earnings upwards by over $20,000. With King Cugat, he has two horses who skew his total progeny earnings upwards by $10,000.

That's all well and good if you are likely to get a "jackpot" horse (and why Storm Cat stood for $500k)--but calculating the average without throwing out any obvious outliers (like Seaside Retreat or Tap Dance City) does a very bad job of telling you whether your ham-and-eggs King Cugat or Pleasant Tap will pay its bills or not.

Back to King Cugat in Australia, here are his top five earners:

Devil Moon (Gr-1)
Quizzical Lady (L)
Xavier--out of a full sister to 2-million winner Daneprint
Melliflous
Come on Cugat--out of a 3/4 sister to multiple Gr-1 winner Kaapstad

Of them, Devil Moon, Come on Cugat, Xavier, and Mellifluous all carry Sir Ivor up close. Come on Cugat, Xavier and Mellifluous carry Sir Tristram, Devil Moon's broodmare sire is out of a Sir Ivor mare. Quizzical Lady is out of an American import and her bloodlines are all american.

So, to sum up, what I see out of King Cugat's down-under bred horses to date:

1. He was well-supported with quality mares.
2. He's had a couple of big hits, but a LOT who just aren't getting the job done.
3. You may note that his 2004-2005 crop had 71 reported foals and only 43 named. These would have been born in late 2004, would be 2yo in August of 2006. If you assume most of his foals that will go on to race would have been named by the time they were 2, either a lot of them died early or a lot of them just weren't good enough to register and name. The naming of this foal crop would not likely have been affected by the EI outbreak. That's not an indicator of something bad all on its own, but it's something you might want to look into before you write a check.
4. The bloodline that appears to have worked best is not common in North America, and that is Sir Ivor. Where you can find it, it's present through Cozzene, Lord Avie, Sir Gaylord, and Drone. I can't determine whether the bloodline itself is a plus--it's a small sample size--or an indication of a high-quality mare. I'm leaning towards a combination of both.

Based on the above four points, I would _not_ recommend using King Cugat's southern hemisphere accomplishments as a benchmark, and based on his northern hemisphere accomplishments would not recommend using him. If you want a sire whose kids pay the bills, there's Raffies Majesty, Eltish, Northern Spur, or Disco Rico right there.

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Postby bdw0617 » Wed Jan 07, 2009 11:06 pm

thanks for the info! will read tomorro when i'm not half sleep. I know off the top of my head who zabeel is, he's the sire of vengeance of rain.
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Postby bdw0617 » Sat Jan 10, 2009 10:06 pm

over the last 2 weeks' i've becomewhat of an expert on this family. theregoesjojo, the horse that won very impressivly at gulfstream today is from this family.
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Postby ASB » Sun Jan 11, 2009 2:05 pm

You mean after it was pointed out to you on tbc?

If you're really that tickled by the family I know of a Fast Play filly in Florida who's inbred closely to it with a formula 1 rf. She's 3x3 Broadway.

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Postby bdw0617 » Sun Jan 11, 2009 2:13 pm

ASB wrote:You mean after it was pointed out to you on tbc?

If you're really that tickled by the family I know of a Fast Play filly in Florida who's inbred closely to it with a formula 1 rf. She's 3x3 Broadway.
you are being an asshole. you really are.

i'm thinkign about spending thousands of dollars on a sire. i guess it's out the question that I might know a thing or two about the rest of his family. nah that cant' be the case.


you can have this place if every post i make is going to be attacked like this. this is pathetic
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Postby ASB » Sun Jan 11, 2009 2:25 pm

Just stating a fact. You had no clue until it was pointed out to you. But take credit. I'm sure she won't mind.

I believe they're asking 3.5k for the 3yo filly. If you want an email for her pm me.

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Postby Fireslam » Sun Jan 11, 2009 3:28 pm

Why would you spend thousands (where is this good deal you were talking about?) on a stud fee when you can get one here for $350?

http://www.gtoba.com/auction/item.php?id=211

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Postby ct2346 » Sun Jan 11, 2009 4:59 pm

Just to put a new perspective on the question if you are considering breeding to KC, I would recommend sending a mare that is very correct up front. I looked at him last year (and bred to him) but I think the physical is important when considering this particular mating.

That said, his page is so strong - if you are patient, he's worth a shot at his current reduced price.

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Postby Crystal » Mon Jan 12, 2009 5:53 am

yeah bdw, step up so I can put you on the books... you want a boarding contract now or when your mystery mare shows up?

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Postby DDT » Mon Jan 12, 2009 7:39 am

bdw

You ask for advice and you get it, and like usual, when it is not what you want to hear, you say you are being attacked and this forum is pathetic. Well, once again you started it by saying you were thinking about buying a mare to breed to King Cugat, and it is just like last year when you said you were thinking about claiming a horse at Oaklawn, most of us told you it would not be a good move, and you took issue with the opinions offered and dropped the topic. You are pathetic, you dream up a topic when you know you have no intention of buying a mare, let alone breeding her.

If all of this is not a lark, explain to me how you can say "but considering I can probably get half off the stud fee and pay NO borad fees because Crystal gets to bored free (sp)" when Crystal responds to you with an offer of a boarding contract?? So what gives?

DDT

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Postby rudydee » Mon Jan 12, 2009 8:44 am

DDT

Why anyone on this board reponds to BDW or takes him seriously is beyond my comprehension. He is still living in the basement of his parent's house in Arkansas!!

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Postby Crystal » Mon Jan 12, 2009 8:48 am

yeah, I also Pm'd him with where the hell did I say I would board your horse for free, and offer you a half off stud fee??? I didnt get a response.

But he doesnt care, in his mind we all work for him, and should just nod and agree with whatever he says b/c we're not right if he doesnt like the response or tell him anything different then what he wants to hear.