Tiz wrote: "The quotes are from Silverbulletday's year, 1999."
Exactly. I was trying to show the parallels between Silverbulletday and Rachel Alexandra. (Thought that would have been more apparent, since Mike Pegram is in no way involved in this year's Preakness ...)
Just a few posts earlier/above, someone wrote that the competition RA's faces to-date have not been a strong bunch. That's basically what Lukas said ten years ago. And he was right, then. Whether or not this year's male crop is as strong as what Silverbullet day faced still remains to be seen. I couldn't conclude anything, really, from the Derby.
Rachel Alexandra
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bdw0617
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you cannot compare 1999 to 2009
1. you had a horse that had a legit shot at a triple crown.
2. the 3rd place finisher int he derby won the breeders cup classic
3. The belmont stakes winner ended up winning the traves and sweeping the New york handicap races as a 4YO
I cannot say this enough. Rachael is very, very good. But she's not like Ghostzapper or anything like that. She is a very good, well above avg filly, who just so happened to run up on a bad group of 3YO colts.
It's not like we are saying Hard Spun, Street Sense, Curlin and Any Given Saturday are all int he race, but this filly would drarf them all. No.
It's more like this is Pyro, Court Vision, Dennis of Cork and recaputretheglory.
While she is very special, her being fav is more of an indication of how bad this group is without I want revenge and Quality road. Not BAD, but very very avg.
Let me put it this way and the numbers back me u on this. Rachael is very equivelant to Big Brown number wise. That about talent wise isw here I put her, on the big brownesque level.
Likewise, the rest of the field now, is about where the level of the rest of the feld was last year. About 10 points lower than what she is capable of doing on her best da.
there isn't a horse in the race that could beat her. Now, she can beat herself, for a number of reasons. but if she loses, it will be becuase 1) a horse jumps up and runs a freak race of his life or 2) she beat her self.
last year, people weren't really saying big brown was the second coming of the bid or antyhing, but moreso he was a very good horse beating up on a very mediacore group of 3YOs.
if she runs anywhere near a 107-110 beyer this isn't going to be a race.
1. you had a horse that had a legit shot at a triple crown.
2. the 3rd place finisher int he derby won the breeders cup classic
3. The belmont stakes winner ended up winning the traves and sweeping the New york handicap races as a 4YO
I cannot say this enough. Rachael is very, very good. But she's not like Ghostzapper or anything like that. She is a very good, well above avg filly, who just so happened to run up on a bad group of 3YO colts.
It's not like we are saying Hard Spun, Street Sense, Curlin and Any Given Saturday are all int he race, but this filly would drarf them all. No.
It's more like this is Pyro, Court Vision, Dennis of Cork and recaputretheglory.
While she is very special, her being fav is more of an indication of how bad this group is without I want revenge and Quality road. Not BAD, but very very avg.
Let me put it this way and the numbers back me u on this. Rachael is very equivelant to Big Brown number wise. That about talent wise isw here I put her, on the big brownesque level.
Likewise, the rest of the field now, is about where the level of the rest of the feld was last year. About 10 points lower than what she is capable of doing on her best da.
there isn't a horse in the race that could beat her. Now, she can beat herself, for a number of reasons. but if she loses, it will be becuase 1) a horse jumps up and runs a freak race of his life or 2) she beat her self.
last year, people weren't really saying big brown was the second coming of the bid or antyhing, but moreso he was a very good horse beating up on a very mediacore group of 3YOs.
if she runs anywhere near a 107-110 beyer this isn't going to be a race.
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Well, we can compare them ... probably shouldn't, though. I'll say it again: we cannot judge a crop until after they've retired!! (Remember the bad-mouthing Curlin got at this stage of his 3YO year?)
Only after they're done racing can we really assess their accomplishments and talent. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see someone with superior breeding (A.P. Indy, Smart Strike, Giant's Causeway, etc) - like Friesan Fire - to win the Belmont and Travers and go on to do well as a 4YO.
Average horses beat great horses all the time. (How'd Big Brown do in the Belmont?) Horses with superior speed figures routinely lose. Happens every day and at every race track. They're not machines, they go through form cycles, and they mature at different rates. Plus, there's always human error and chance involved.
Only after they're done racing can we really assess their accomplishments and talent. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see someone with superior breeding (A.P. Indy, Smart Strike, Giant's Causeway, etc) - like Friesan Fire - to win the Belmont and Travers and go on to do well as a 4YO.
Average horses beat great horses all the time. (How'd Big Brown do in the Belmont?) Horses with superior speed figures routinely lose. Happens every day and at every race track. They're not machines, they go through form cycles, and they mature at different rates. Plus, there's always human error and chance involved.
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bdw0617
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what i don't undersatnd is how is 2 weeks too short for rachael but not two short for pioneerof the nile, musket man, papa clem...etc
potn looked lke he wanted to find a taxi cab in the stretch of the derby. but 2 weeks is fine for him. but becuase rachael is a precious wittle filly, it's too short
potn looked lke he wanted to find a taxi cab in the stretch of the derby. but 2 weeks is fine for him. but becuase rachael is a precious wittle filly, it's too short
"When the solution is simple, God is answering.”
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bdw0617 wrote:what i don't undersatnd is how is 2 weeks too short for rachael but not two short for pioneerof the nile, musket man, papa clem...etc
potn looked lke he wanted to find a taxi cab in the stretch of the derby. but 2 weeks is fine for him. but becuase rachael is a precious wittle filly, it's too short
yeah...are fillies supposed to need more time to recover? I never heard that if so. Female humans on average have greater stamina and more pain tolerance than men . .. so . . . .?
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wangkw
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RA's 2.3 kg advantage over boys should raise its chance..provided not awkwardly drawn....In Oak she started
from barrier 5 in a field of 7.
But in a large Preakness field of 13..and the only girl..the barrier pos will be more critical this time round.
Nevertheless RA at 13 is expected to be favorite at most betting booths ...will her 2 in 1 stride repeat all
over gain ?
from barrier 5 in a field of 7.
But in a large Preakness field of 13..and the only girl..the barrier pos will be more critical this time round.
Nevertheless RA at 13 is expected to be favorite at most betting booths ...will her 2 in 1 stride repeat all
over gain ?
Last edited by wangkw on Fri May 15, 2009 4:35 am, edited 2 times in total.
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bdw0617
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Rachael racing as a 4YO!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
Jackson figures she’ll enter another five or six races this year and will race as a 4-year-old “as long as she tells us she wants to.”
delaware_N.htm?csp=34
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
"When the solution is simple, God is answering.”
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