VICTORY GALLOP
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SilverGhost
- Suckling
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VICTORY GALLOP
What do you guys think of Victory Gallop being listed as a 'worst value' at www.ThoroughbredReview.com ?
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SilverGhost
- Suckling
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kimberley mine
- Breeder's Cup Contender
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Re: VICTORY GALLOP
SilverGhost wrote:What do you guys think of Victory Gallop being listed as a 'worst value' at www.ThoroughbredReview.com ?
This might be splitting hairs, but it doesn't call him a bad horse...just vastly overpriced. At $7500, he'd probably be a great deal for a careful breeder.
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louis finochio
- Darley line
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Many Ky stallions are overpriced. I am not sure that Victory Gallop is the worst value, because I have not attempted to analyze the worst. How about Thunder Gulch and Mr. Greely?
I suggest that we wait until the end of their first crop's 3 year old year before proclaiming Successful Appeal or Yes Its True as the next Mr Prospector or Seattle Slew.
I suggest that we wait until the end of their first crop's 3 year old year before proclaiming Successful Appeal or Yes Its True as the next Mr Prospector or Seattle Slew.
hi liberty
You wrote "I suggest that we wait until the end of their first crop's 3 year old year before proclaiming Successful Appeal or Yes Its True as the next Mr Prospector or Seattle Slew."
Liberty...respectfully...I don't recall anyone proclaiming that.
Regardless...All Things Considered...I suggest that right now the advertised stud fees of Successful Appeal and Yes It's True are great value...and Victory Gallop is the antithesis.
Respectfully
You wrote "I suggest that we wait until the end of their first crop's 3 year old year before proclaiming Successful Appeal or Yes Its True as the next Mr Prospector or Seattle Slew."
Liberty...respectfully...I don't recall anyone proclaiming that.
Regardless...All Things Considered...I suggest that right now the advertised stud fees of Successful Appeal and Yes It's True are great value...and Victory Gallop is the antithesis.
Respectfully
I merely think that there is some irrational enthusiasm. Do you think that the median yearling sales price, for each of these stallions, in 2007 will surpass 100K? If that is in doubt, then I conclude that they are not exceptional values. They may be better values than 90+% of the other stallions in Ky, but that doesn't make them exceptional values.
hi liberty
You ask "Do you think that the median yearling sales price, for each of these stallions (Successful Appeal and Yes It's True), in 2007 will surpass 100K?"
Answer...Very Strong Probability.
I suggest that Successful Appeal and Yes It's True are at or near the top of the 'Best Stud Fee Values in 2005 for North American Sires' list...as far as I'm concerned.
You wrote "They may be better values than 90+% of the other stallions in Ky, but that doesn't make them exceptional values."
Liberty...respectfully...who in your opinion are some exceptional sire values in Ky?
Best to you.
Respectfully
You ask "Do you think that the median yearling sales price, for each of these stallions (Successful Appeal and Yes It's True), in 2007 will surpass 100K?"
Answer...Very Strong Probability.
I suggest that Successful Appeal and Yes It's True are at or near the top of the 'Best Stud Fee Values in 2005 for North American Sires' list...as far as I'm concerned.
You wrote "They may be better values than 90+% of the other stallions in Ky, but that doesn't make them exceptional values."
Liberty...respectfully...who in your opinion are some exceptional sire values in Ky?
Best to you.
Respectfully
liberty wrote:Many Ky stallions are overpriced. I am not sure that Victory Gallop is the worst value, because I have not attempted to analyze the worst. How about Thunder Gulch and Mr. Greely?
I actually think that Thunder Gulch and Mr. Greeley both represent pretty good value at their new (lowered) stud fees. Do you mind explaining why you think they're among the worst?
LSB & FOS posed questions to me. Permit to answer them to the best of my ability with one posting.
FOS, if one believes as you do that Succesful Appeal's & Yes Its True's 2007 yearlings will have a median sales price of greater 100K in 2007, then he is a very good value. I am not that optimistic. Based on advertised stud fees. I think that Malibu Moon, 17,500, is the best valued stallion in KY for stallions standing for less than 35,000. I don't look at stallions with higher stud fees, because they are out of my price range.
LSB, I think that Thunder Gulch and Mr. Greeley are ice cold. His median at 2004 Keeneland Sept was 100K, and his average was 120,320. Mr. G's yearlings averaged 83,681 with a median of 65,000.
On the racing front, TG had 2 stakes winners and 31% winners from 48 named foals from his 2001 crop. He had 1 stakes winner from 101 named foals in his 2000 crop. Mr. G had 1 stakes winner and 47% winners from 32 named foals in his 2001 crop. He also has 5 stakes winners from 93 named foals in his 2000 crop. These statistics are from Thoroughbred Times 2005 stallion register.
I expect more from stallions with $40,000 stud fees. These are my reasons. If you disgree, I am not offended.
FOS, if one believes as you do that Succesful Appeal's & Yes Its True's 2007 yearlings will have a median sales price of greater 100K in 2007, then he is a very good value. I am not that optimistic. Based on advertised stud fees. I think that Malibu Moon, 17,500, is the best valued stallion in KY for stallions standing for less than 35,000. I don't look at stallions with higher stud fees, because they are out of my price range.
LSB, I think that Thunder Gulch and Mr. Greeley are ice cold. His median at 2004 Keeneland Sept was 100K, and his average was 120,320. Mr. G's yearlings averaged 83,681 with a median of 65,000.
On the racing front, TG had 2 stakes winners and 31% winners from 48 named foals from his 2001 crop. He had 1 stakes winner from 101 named foals in his 2000 crop. Mr. G had 1 stakes winner and 47% winners from 32 named foals in his 2001 crop. He also has 5 stakes winners from 93 named foals in his 2000 crop. These statistics are from Thoroughbred Times 2005 stallion register.
I expect more from stallions with $40,000 stud fees. These are my reasons. If you disgree, I am not offended.
hi liberty
Your thoughts and comments are appreciated.
It sounds like you and I agree that Malibu Moon is a 'steal' at his advertised stud fee of $17,500 LF. Problem is...they're not to be found.
Re: Successful Appeal...one of the many things that particularly strikes me about him is that his stakes-winners to foals ratio is so HUGE.
As for Yes It's True...many of them look like they're out of a cookie cutter...and are the kind of 'cookies' that many buyers seem to like.
Best to you.
Respectfully
Your thoughts and comments are appreciated.
It sounds like you and I agree that Malibu Moon is a 'steal' at his advertised stud fee of $17,500 LF. Problem is...they're not to be found.
Re: Successful Appeal...one of the many things that particularly strikes me about him is that his stakes-winners to foals ratio is so HUGE.
As for Yes It's True...many of them look like they're out of a cookie cutter...and are the kind of 'cookies' that many buyers seem to like.
Best to you.
Respectfully
liberty wrote:LSB, I think that Thunder Gulch and Mr. Greeley are ice cold. His median at 2004 Keeneland Sept was 100K, and his average was 120,320. Mr. G's yearlings averaged 83,681 with a median of 65,000.
liberty, I'm going to reply to the sales part of your statement first, only because at the moment I don't have time to look up the racing stats I want. A commercial breeder would tell you that the numbers you cited above look pretty good for those stallions.
Thunder Gulch's yearlings averaging three times his stud fee? The median at two and a half times stud fee? That equals a profit for the breeder, which is something we're all looking for.
Mr. G's numbers aren't quite as good but at his currently advertised fee of 35K, the math still works out pretty well. I'm not saying that either one of these stallions is the best value around. I just don't think they're among the worst.
But like you, I'm perfectly happy to disagree.
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st. louis kid
- Maiden Special Weight
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- Joined: Fri Sep 24, 2004 8:56 pm
I would be very wary of spending $25,000 on Successful Appeal. Victory Gallop is off to a great start this year with already 14 winners and earnings of almost a half mil. Has shown his offspring can get a distance with an ave. winning of almost a mile. Had 8 stakes winners last year from 93 starters. He finished #78 on the sire list last year, which is great for a second year sire.
On the other side, many I talk to think the air is coming out of the balloon with SA. Only 4 winners this year, two of them maiden. Will probably do ok with 2 year olds, after that its a crap shoot.
On the other side, many I talk to think the air is coming out of the balloon with SA. Only 4 winners this year, two of them maiden. Will probably do ok with 2 year olds, after that its a crap shoot.