AEI of Stallions in 1980 vs now

[oliverstoned]

I was just looking at a Leading sires list by AEI from 1980 and noticed there were 73 stallions listed with a AEI of 2.32 or greater. Right now there are only 14 Stallions with a AEI of 2.32 or greater. What gives?

[hpkingjr]

My guess would be that in 1976 and 77 most of the books were full at 40 mares thus forcing the quality mares into many many other stallions' books. Think if you took A.P. Indy, Giant's Causeway, Smart Strile, Street Cry etc, etc and they had at most 1/3 of the mares they now curently have. It would create a much broader playing field for other stallions. My guess is that today, the top 10% stallions have almost 60% of the top females going to the shed. I have seen ads where almost 2/3 of some stallions book is either graded winners or graded producers. Again this is strictly my guess. Thoughts?

[Tappiano]

Breed to sell versus breed to race.

[oliverstoned]

Let me also add there were 22 stallions over 3.00 and now there is 3 (in 1980 3 were over 5.00).

[fastappy]

I was just looking at a Leading sires list by AEI from 1980 and noticed there were 73 stallions listed with a AEI of 2.32 or greater. Right now there are only 14 Stallions with a AEI of 2.32 or greater. What gives?

Very interesting observation. I think as mentioned it could be the breed to sale vs breed to race, and the attendant redistribution of mares. Here's a comparision of 2008 vs 1991 on the TJC fact book.

The end number represents the avg. mares per stallion

US DISTRIBUTION OF ACTIVE STALLIONS AND MARES BRED printer friendly version

(Current through 12/07/2009)

Click for ranking in: 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 | 1994 | 1993 | 1992 | 1991 |


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2006 2007 2008
State by 2008
Ranking Mares
Bred Stallions Avg.
Book Mares
Bred Stallions Avg.
Book Mares
Bred Stallions Avg.
Book

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Kentucky 21,143 384 55.1 21,588 365 59.1 21,174 349 60.7
Florida 7,072 260 27.2 6,382 252 25.3 5,407 239 22.6
California 4,912 341 14.4 4,706 323 14.6 4,061 277 14.7
Louisiana 3,995 301 13.3 4,154 297 14.0 3,980 296 13.4
Texas 2,689 352 7.6 2,331 314 7.4 2,060 266 7.7

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New York 2,308 124 18.6 2,007 113 17.8 1,897 105 18.1
Oklahoma 1,618 219 7.4 1,701 191 8.9 1,666 191 8.7
New Mexico 2,049 195 10.5 1,986 191 10.4 1,664 176 9.5
Pennsylvania 1,159 122 9.5 1,173 106 11.1 1,396 114 12.2
Maryland 1,634 71 23.0 1,430 64 22.3 1,205 50 24.1

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West Virginia 1,168 85 13.7 1,034 86 12.0 880 85 10.4
Indiana 481 86 5.6 583 80 7.3 759 87 8.7
Washington 1,047 92 11.4 900 80 11.3 748 58 12.9
Illinois 997 109 9.1 869 100 8.7 735 95 7.7
Arkansas 553 64 8.6 594 64 9.3 523 50 10.5

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Michigan 549 63 8.7 430 59 7.3 403 53 7.6
Arizona 582 69 8.4 508 61 8.3 399 53 7.5
Iowa 431 43 10.0 413 39 10.6 335 30 11.2
Minnesota 372 39 9.5 314 33 9.5 303 33 9.2
Oregon 455 54 8.4 385 56 6.9 289 42 6.9

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New Jersey 452 34 13.3 390 29 13.4 279 30 9.3
Colorado 352 54 6.5 303 54 5.6 266 46 5.8
Nebraska 363 38 9.6 319 33 9.7 250 25 10.0
Ohio 446 82 5.4 362 75 4.8 240 50 4.8
Kansas 143 26 5.5 152 30 5.1 222 33 6.7

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Idaho 258 43 6.0 265 38 7.0 180 33 5.5
North Dakota 146 20 7.3 148 24 6.2 139 19 7.3
South Carolina 130 22 5.9 136 26 5.2 137 26 5.3
Virginia 238 70 3.4 147 50 2.9 136 48 2.8
South Dakota 128 15 8.5 107 12 8.9 119 15 7.9

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Montana 166 38 4.4 124 32 3.9 114 30 3.8
Utah 279 38 7.3 211 26 8.1 99 19 5.2
Alabama 125 24 5.2 106 24 4.4 74 21 3.5
Tennessee 109 27 4.0 90 22 4.1 72 16 4.5
Georgia 80 17 4.7 104 20 5.2 58 14 4.1

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Massachusetts 29 9 3.2 36 10 3.6 54 12 4.5
North Carolina 67 16 4.2 42 13 3.2 45 11 4.1
Mississippi 48 12 4.0 49 13 3.8 29 9 3.2
Missouri 67 18 3.7 70 18 3.9 25 11 2.3
Wisconsin 34 10 3.4 30 8 3.8 19 3 6.3

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Wyoming 20 8 2.5 8 5 1.6 10 5 2.0
Nevada 13 6 2.2 24 7 3.4 9 4 2.3
Delaware 2 1 2.0 1 1 1.0 7 1 7.0
New Hampshire 0 0 0.0 5 2 2.5 2 1 2.0
Connecticut 6 3 2.0 1 1 1.0 1 1 1.0

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Hawaii 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0
Alaska 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0
Maine 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0
Rhode Island 2 1 2.0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0
Vermont 3 2 1.5 1 1 1.0 0 0 0.0

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TOTALS 58,920 3,707 15.9 56,719 3,448 16.4 52,470 3,132 16.8


Ranked by number of mares bred

Source: The Jockey Club

US Distribution of Active Stallions and Mares Bred - 1991


State by
Ranking Mares
Bred Stallions Avg.
Book

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Kentucky 14,595 499 29.2
California 7,365 753 9.8
Florida 6,093 396 15.4
Texas 3,938 579 6.8
Oklahoma 3,171 444 7.1

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Louisiana 2,928 321 9.1
Maryland 2,782 198 14.1
Washington 2,577 262 9.8
New York 2,305 236 9.8
Illinois 1,828 245 7.5

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Ohio 1,380 212 6.5
New Mexico 1,234 186 6.6
Pennsylvania 974 194 5.0
Nebraska 951 127 7.5
Michigan 862 153 5.6

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Virginia 837 154 5.4
Arkansas 810 116 7.0
West Virginia 803 82 9.8
Minnesota 734 94 7.8
Idaho 670 111 6.0

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Arizona 647 115 5.6
Montana 616 98 6.3
New Jersey 581 80 7.3
Utah 530 96 5.5
Kansas 515 90 5.7

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Colorado 441 104 4.2
Missouri 386 79 4.9
Oregon 376 90 4.2
Iowa 347 55 6.3
Tennessee 238 60 4.0

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South Carolina 228 44 5.2
Indiana 213 55 3.9
North Dakota 206 29 7.1
Georgia 205 45 4.6
North Carolina 201 41 4.9

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South Dakota 199 30 6.6
Alabama 196 53 3.7
Wisconsin 109 35 3.1
Mississippi 98 25 3.9
Wyoming 92 26 3.5

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Massachusetts 89 28 3.2
Nevada 42 14 3.0
New Hampshire 23 10 2.3
Connecticut 20 11 1.8
Vermont 14 5 2.8

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Hawaii 11 7 1.6
Delaware 8 4 2.0
Maine 7 3 2.3
Alaska 2 1 2.0
Rhode Island 2 1 2.0

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Total 63,479 6,696 9.5
Source: The Jockey Club

[da hossman]

Without question it is the increased book size - hpking is dead on!

The increased book size has also resulted in a drop in percentage of SW's for the elite stallions. Bill Oppenheimer has written a fair bit about this and has opined that the stallions siring 10% SW from foals in the 1980's would now be siring 6% SW's from foals.

[pokeyman]

Breed to sell versus breed to race.

Ding-Ding.......And...we have a winner!!!!

[da hossman]

I am not about to say that breeding to sell has not impacted the overall racing quality of Thoroughbreds, but think about the numbers and then the more powerful influence of the numbers over any breeding fashion or evolution.

Consider that the average book size for elite stallions tripled in size between 1980 and 2000 (40 mares to 120+), thereby removing quality mares from the books of lesser stallions. This is an immediate and significant statistical change, and that is what we are talking about, a statistic (AEI).

While "breeding to sell" has and will continue to have an adverse influence on performance (particularly the production history of young mares bred to unproven stallions), evolution takes a bit more time than 20 years. And don't forget that "breeding to sell" is not new to the game - the Hancock's were doing it in the 1790's in Virginia 100+ years before they ever came to KY.

[oliverstoned]

The other thing is value for the dollar. Back then when you paid the top tier stud fee you were getting 4.0 range AEI and 12-20% stakes winners from foals.