Who has no shot at winning the Derby

[wgc517]

I know there are some very good horseman and handicappers out there.
What horses do you think have no real shot to win the derby. (although anything can happen). What horses do you think will finish worst than 10th.

[wgc517]

Weather update

They are calling for Thunderstorms on Saturday.

[zinn21]

Conveyance has no shot. The filly has no shot. Backtalk has no shot. Make Music for Me has no shot. Line Of David has no shot. Homeboy Chris has no shot.

The winner is Lookin At Lucky, Mission Impazible, Dublin, Sydney's Candy or Paddy O Prado...

[TJ]

Hi Wg,
This is one of the toughest, wide open Derby's in years, so I'm going price hunting, stay loose as a goose and throw out the two favorites due to bad post positions....Looking at Lucky and Sidney's Candy. Others I'm throwing out are Noble's Promise (don't believe he's over the lung infection), Dean's Kitten, Make Music for Me, American Lion, Stately Victor, Paddy O'Prado, Jackson Bend, Homeboykris and Backtalk. TJ

[Aug27]

Endorsement, Rule, Eskendereya ...

Seriously, didn't Giacomo and Mine That Bird teach us that anything can happen??

I kinda like two horese mentioned above as throwouts: American Lion and Make Music for Me.
American Lion is bred to love the surface, wet or fast, and should have no problem with the distance. He has the lowest ThoroGraph fig in the field. Also, his Lewis was the fastest 8.5f race of all entrants.

And compare Make Music For Me's past performances with those of Giacomo. Eerily similar. Three times he ran against L@L and finished within 2 lengths while making up ground in each. With the longer distance and L@L around 3-1, with MMFM at 50-1, I might make a wild value bet on him (even though I give him very little realistic chance of winning.)

I'm inclined to toss Backtalk, Line of David, Dean's Kitten, Noble's Promise, and Homeboykris - - considering their likely distance and surface preferences/limitations based on their breeding.

[TJ]

Endorsement, Rule, Eskendereya ...

Seriously, didn't Giacomo and Mine That Bird teach us that anything can happen??

I kinda like two horese mentioned above as throwouts: American Lion and Make Music for Me.
American Lion is bred to love the surface, wet or fast, and should have no problem with the distance. He has the lowest ThoroGraph fig in the field. Also, his Lewis was the fastest 8.5f race of all entrants.

And compare Make Music For Me's past performances with those of Giacomo. Eerily similar. Three times he ran against L@L and finished within 2 lengths while making up ground in each. With the longer distance and L@L around 3-1, with MMFM at 50-1, I might make a wild value bet on him (even though I give him very little realistic chance of winning.)

I'm inclined to toss Backtalk, Line of David, Dean's Kitten, Noble's Promise, and Homeboykris - - considering their likely distance and surface preferences/limitations based on their breeding.

Thanks for the TG fig. heads up Aug.27......think I'll have to stick American Lion back in the mix, was that race on the dirt where he recieved that Fig?TJ

[Toccet02]

you ask this question after last year?

[wgc517]

Sure there will always be upsets/longshots that will hit and no one can predict that but it is easy to throw a name out there and say they will win. (Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then)

The question is how did you get there. You still have to rule out other horses based on valid criteria. Can't get the distance, can't run in the slop etc. Just trying to get an idea how others look at the race.

[Dave C]

It actually doesn't matter whether your criteria for throwing out a horse is valid or not. It only matters whether or not you end up picking the winner. Many times I've picked the best horse and watched it run into traffic trouble and not get out until it was too late. Other times I've completely got the race wrong and somehow the horse I picked still won. In the end that is why it is called gambling.

[Aug27]

TJ,
I believe his TG fig ( -3/4 ... the only "negative" in the field {which is a good thing in that system} ) was earned in the Ill Derby. A fast Tiznow on CD dirt at the classic distance: Worth serious consideration as a Win wager, IMO.

[TJ]

TJ,
I believe his TG fig ( -3/4 ... the only "negative" in the field {which is a good thing in that system} ) was earned in the Ill Derby. A fast Tiznow on CD dirt at the classic distance: Worth serious consideration as a Win wager, IMO.

Thanx. TJ

[Toccet02]

It actually doesn't matter whether your criteria for throwing out a horse is valid or not. It only matters whether or not you end up picking the winner. Many times I've picked the best horse and watched it run into traffic trouble and not get out until it was too late. Other times I've completely got the race wrong and somehow the horse I picked still won. In the end that is why it is called gambling.

Keeping in mind the weather and the traffic, I come up with

Super Saver
Sidney's Candy
Mission Impazible
Backtalk

[vallygirl927]

I kind of like Backtalk...as a LONG LONG LONG SHOT. He could run in the slop and his daddy and dam's daddy both won the Derby. Wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility.

I'm tossing Dean's Kitten, the filly, Paddy O Prado, American Lion, and Make Music for Me. other than that, it's wide open!

[Tucumcari]

Line of David=no chance. Needs the lead speed and Conveyance etc will ensure that he will not have the easy lead he seems to need to win.

[ageecee]

Backtalk and Homeboykris have no shot





Deans Kitten was 50/1 ML and is now 18/1