Would you buy a horse with an "F" Werk nicking

[wgc517]

Would like to get some thoughts. I don't really understand the Werk Ratings too well.

If you came across a horse that stood out at a sale, (conformation, breeze, stride, pedigree) but had an "F" Werk nick rating (-53%), Quality Rating of Q7, Dosage points 32 Quality points 4= Total points 36. Would you stay away or would you pull the trigger?

[LB]

A letter grade on a nick rating would have no bearing on my decision. If I liked everything else about the horse and it fell into my price range, I would hope that that horse would be the one that succeeded well enough to change the grade.

It seems to me that for a long time Zenyatta's breeding was rated as a C or maybe a C+. Thankfully the Mosses were willing to overlook that.

I believe Zenyatta's exploits have now upgraded her to an A.

[majxmom]

At least once per decade, there is a superior horse which confounds all commonly accepted breeding theories, and even conformation theories. Every once in a while, a horse just overcomes the norm. Why not give her a try? With the state of the economy and auction prices right now, and if anyone who believes in the Werk system disregards her, you might get her for a lot less than you expect. And then you'll be the one that the Bloodhorse write about, like the Taylors and the Hills taking a chance for $17,000...that's what breeding is all about, the hope and the dream. No one ever committed suicide with a weanling on the ground and one in the belly.

[LB]

OK, I'm feeling snarky today--so bear that in mind as you read further. Here's what I really wanted to say in my above post.

So here's the scenario as I understand it. You have money and you want to buy a horse. Using your best judgement, you've found one that fits what you want in just about every category. And yet because someone who has never even seen the horse in question devised a rating system in which that horse gets a low score you are willing to throw out everything you see in front of you and place their opinion (which is a generalization and not specific to that horse) above your own?

You have judged the horse on conformation, pedigree, stride, and breeze: four important parameters. Why would one single quality--a nicking value--negate all that other information?

Bear in mind too that Werk nicks look only at stallions and sire lines. So at least half the pedigree is totally unexamined when determining the rating.

[wgc517]

Thanks LB,

I wanted honesty. I actually did buy the horse but didn't want to sway anyone's opinion for fear of hurting my feelings. (not that they would). It would have been nice if the rating at least showed the mating worked befor but I liked everything about this horse and was not about to let him go.

I didn't realize it only looked at the stallion side. Makes me feel a little better athough the sire was Aptitude..

thanks

[louis finochio]

I would purchase a tb that had an F nick, if the 1st 3 dams progeny started between 25-45 lifetime starts. Many of those A nicks, are from FB matings that only average a few starts & then are retired to stud.

Ifa breeder does his homework, he can upgrade that F Nick upwards to a A or B. I value soundness over an A nick.

[LB]

I'm glad you bought the horse and I hope he does well for you.

[ct2346]

To put this in perspective, I have seen some A+ nicks on yearlings that were more crooked than a Home Depot 2x4. I would no more buy them because of that one rating than I would disqualify a horse that I really liked because of a paper nick rating - Werk or True.

[KBEquine]

To put this in perspective, I have seen some A+ nicks on yearlings that were more crooked than a Home Depot 2x4.

For better or worse, when I go look at a mare, I buy the equineline.com 4-dam unedited pedigree & look at EVERY foal in 4 generations of the female family, looking for what I call "the good, the bad & the ugly" or, "who does the mama's family like for in-laws?"

Sometimes it's a waste of my money. Other times, a sire-line - or a female family - or some combination of the two - jumps up in EVERY horse in those 4 generations who either is blacktype or who has made more than $100k (or both). THEN I look at both the Werk & TrueNicks - mostly out of curiosity, but never to make the buy/don't buy decision. I've used the conformation, breeze, stride, pedigree - and who does mama's family like? for that decision.

[FOS]

hi LB

OK, I'm feeling snarky today--so bear that in mind as you read further. Here's what I really wanted to say in my above post.

So here's the scenario as I understand it. You have money and you want to buy a horse. Using your best judgement, you've found one that fits what you want in just about every category. And yet because someone who has never even seen the horse in question devised a rating system in which that horse gets a low score you are willing to throw out everything you see in front of you and place their opinion (which is a generalization and not specific to that horse) above your own?

You have judged the horse on conformation, pedigree, stride, and breeze: four important parameters. Why would one single quality--a nicking value--negate all that other information?

Bear in mind too that Werk nicks look only at stallions and sire lines. So at least half the pedigree is totally unexamined when determining the rating.

Snarky I'd say a no nonsense, dead-center...Bull's-Eye

Best to ya.

Respectfully

[hpkingjr]

This also illustrates the difference between Werk and True Nicks. True Nicks lists the cross as a C but lists 4 graded winners based on AP Indy and Lyphard. The mare, Sonata Cosmos, made over 100K and had some talent. I would say you made a well thought out decision. Best of Luck!

[Sysonby]

I think you made the right choice. I know someone who bought an "F nick" who was an outstanding individual. Two years later, he was a graded stakes winner and the year after that on the cover of the catalog.

BTW there was significant grade inflation for that pedigree afterwards

[wgc517]

I appreciate all the comments. As I said I bought the colt but was just wondering everyone's thoughts.

When I saw the Werk rating in the Auction Edge and the buyers guide, it made me think it might have a little more importance than I thought. Hopefully I will help break the mold....

I bought hip 334 at the FT sale in MD on Monday.

[hpkingjr]

The Goldmine lists at least 11 graded winners and a VGS of 1.37 (1 and 1/3 times the expected graded winners). Maybe Werk doesn't work.

[tbrace]

Jack Werk, rest his good soul, made a lot of money with a fairly meaningless formula.

He was a great marketer and great salesman.

Horseman, not so much.