Six new chefs-de-race

[Roguelet]

No. 212; Codex (Intermediate/Classic)

No. 213; Lost Code (Brilliant/Intermediate)

No. 214; Smart Strike (Intermediate/Classic)

No. 215; Nodouble (Classic/Professional)

No. 216; Giant's Causeway (Classic)

No. 217; Kingmambo (Classic/Solid)

[Tappiano]

Other than Lost Code what did Codex do ? That's his only runner to break a million in earnings. I don't recall seeing Badger Land in any pedigrees and his daughter Coup De Fusil wasn't that much of a contributor to the gene pool either so I'm perplexed by his inclusion.

And other than a few successful fillies, what did Lost Code do ?

[Shammy Davis]

Here is what the website offered up on both CODEX and LOST CODE. It is very complicated reasoning.

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chef ... -codex.htm

[da hossman]

I am puzzled why Dosage (chefs de race) is considered to hold any water. It only considers the males in the pedigree, therefore only 50% of the genetic material at best; has been and I assume will continue to be adjusted whenever any "exception" to its "science" wins the Derby (i.e. Strike the Gold wins therefore Alydar moves from "brilliant" to "classic", etc).

Anyone with real world experience knows that mares are more important than stallions (with the possible exception of the top 5% of stallions) in determining the performance level of the offspring.

Same problem with nicks only worse - again nicks start by only considering males (50% of pedigree) but as they only consider males with results any unproven stallion and unproven broodmare nick is based upon grandsires and greatgrandsires so it actually only considers 25% or less of the pedigree. How can anyone logically believe that would be a reliable indicator of potential?

Nicks are popular because everyone knows the major stallions (they have hundreds of offpsring promoting their names) but only those that live it know more than a few mares. Therefore Nicks are easy to understand and easy to sell to the unsuspecting public.

To quote Pat Benatar, "hit me with your best shot" but please make a logical argument (if possible) for any position supporting either Dosage or Nicking theories.

[Tappiano]

I am generalizing...if you follow the industry and have for a while you already know the good stallions. I like looking at dosage strictly to see how many influences there are in a pedigree. The same with the nicking tools, I've already got an idea in my head what works, they just reinforce it.

I did find it amusing though that because of Kodiak Kowboy the nicking tools suggest that a match to him for my mare is as great as any other from the Silver Deputy line because I don't consider 3 x 4 to Forty Niner to be that attractive.

I will go read up on the rationalization behind including Codex and Lost Code.

[Sysonby]

I'm more inclined to believe in nicks than in dosage. Dosage always seemed to me to be pretty artificial and jerryrigged depending on what big stakes winner was currently doing some big thing.

But nicks may be a shorthand for genetic affinities which in turn may reflect real phenotypes. IOW, X stallion tends to sire offspring with offset knees. Y stallion tends to sire offspring with really offset knees. It stands to reason that mares by Y stallion might not be a good fit with stallion X just because the resulting offspring may not stay sound enough to stay in training.

If there is a reason for the nick to work, it's not the worst way to go.

[Tappiano]

How can genetic affinities in nicks translate to whether a stallion passes on offset knees? I would expect that at least with dosage it is a more reliable indicator of a stallions proclivity in transmitting stamina down through the generations and therefore it is more likely than not the traits being passed on are decent, IMHO.

[Sysonby]

I used offset knees as a simple easily seen example. One nick that just hasn't worked consistently -- and its been tried a lot-- is A P indy to Storm Cat and vice versa. Sure you can point to Sky Mesa and a few others but in general it doesn't work nor did Gone West to Storm Cat until both stallions moved a little further down the pedigree. I don't think there is anything mystical about it--Storm Cat, Gone West and A P Indy were all out of Secretariat mares. Secretariat was a big heavy horse and there is a tipping point where that kind of natural bulk doesn't make a good racehorse.

The reason I like nicks better is that strip away the enicks/True Nicks stuff and there is no numbers and suppositions that go into it like dosage. It's just a question of has it worked and if not why not.

That said, breeding to one stallion just because it is an A nick--no I wouldn't do that.

[siegy]

I am generalizing...if you follow the industry and have for a while you already know the good stallions. I like looking at dosage strictly to see how many influences there are in a pedigree. The same with the nicking tools, I've already got an idea in my head what works, they just reinforce it.

I did find it amusing though that because of Kodiak Kowboy the nicking tools suggest that a match to him for my mare is as great as any other from the Silver Deputy line because I don't consider 3 x 4 to Forty Niner to be that attractive.

I will go read up on the rationalization behind including Codex and Lost Code.

Hi,

codex 1977 ===== imact value ======== 4.95
lost code 1984 === =========1.25
smart strike 1992== 0.28
nodouble 1965 = =3.75
giants causeway 1997 = = 1.75
kingmabo 1990 = = 2.28


compare: stat's at Dr S. Roman,

Siegy,

[ak1]

Other than Lost Code what did Codex do ? That's his only runner to break a million in earnings. I don't recall seeing Badger Land in any pedigrees and his daughter Coup De Fusil wasn't that much of a contributor to the gene pool either so I'm perplexed by his inclusion.

And other than a few successful fillies, what did Lost Code do ?

Badger Land went to stud in South Africa. From what I remember he was/is a pretty important sire there.

Lost Code is pretty desirable as a broodmare sire in a pedigree. (my point of view...)

[ak1]

When I was taking a grad school statistics class, I was not following the NBA examples my professor was using. I'm not a NBA fan, and though I love college basketball, have never followed basketball stats.

When I dug into Dr Roman's website and started reading the explanations behind dosage...the light bulb went off! Dosage made a lot more sense and my class made a lot more sense.

For what it is worth...it is one of many tools. I would not use it to solely plan a breeding, as you do need to consider what your mare brings to the table. But, once a stallion has sired a statistically large enough sample to race, there is validity to this data. It either shows a trend or not. If there is a trend across a large sample of all sorts of mares, then I would presume that trend to have a likelihood of showing up in my prospective foal.

[kimberley mine]

Badger Land went to stud in South Africa. From what I remember he was/is a pretty important sire there.

Lost Code is pretty desirable as a broodmare sire in a pedigree. (my point of view...)

Badger Land was indeed one of the leading sires in South Africa for a very long time. His son Badger's Drift took up the mantle when his old man died.

As far as dosage, yes, it neglects the females in the pedigree, but there is (after a fashion) a very sound statistical reason for that. Even if a stallion only has 20 foals in a year, after 10 years he has enough foals to start making statistically valid comparisons and conclusions. A mare may not have enough foals in her lifetime to perform statistical analysis.

One place that dosage falls down, and IMO falls down severely, is that to my knowledge it does not control for the population of broodmares who have produced foals by stallion X. Take Kingmambo as an example--he has a progeny stamina profile vastly different than his sire, but then again the mares he has seen have stamina profiles vastly different than the mares Mr Prospector would have seen, particularly when he started out in Florida being bred to sprinting mares. If the analysis were controlled by the distance aptitude of the mares AND the distance aptitude of other offspring of those mares (e.g. mile-loving Cozzene mare with mile-loving offspring throws a stay-all-day type to Kingmambo), then I'd be more convinced.

[Tbird]

If a horse has some of these new chefs in its pedigree, does its dosage change?

[dublino]

If a horse has some of these new chefs in its pedigree, does its dosage change?

Yep in most cases it increases a hell of a lot.

[siegy]

If a horse has some of these new chefs in its pedigree, does its dosage change?

Yep in most cases it increases a hell of a lot.

Hi Dublino,

The only Q???????? is: Which way.........

Siegy,