Lookin At Lucky

[Tappiano]

Goes to the breeding factory known as Coolmore.

25K fee? We shall see.

[Bohemia]

Disgraceful. A real loss for racing. Very upset about this.

[Toccet02]

yeah he was a good one. would have been nice to see him race at 4

[fastappy]

To me he is the most attractive stallion with potential for success at stud of all the stallions to retired for 2011. It is too bad they don't allow him to continue to race as he has great earnings potential (as if he hasn't earned enough) as a four year old.

5 grade I wins, very durable, champion juvenile, & well bred made him to valuable (monetarily) as a stallion.

[madelyn]

I wish him very well! I hope to get over to Ashford next month for a chance to meet Lucky in person. I think he is priced better than Blame...

[fastappy]

Madelyn, have you heard what he will stand for?

[madelyn]

I thought I read $20K somewhere, but now I can't find the blasted article.

[chicago78]

I think you guys are going to end up being real low in the predictions for his stud fee. $30-40,000 would be probably right on. He's 2 year old and almost certainly 3 year old champion, he won the Del Mar Futurity, Norfolk, Hollywood Futurity, Preakness, and Haskell. That's a pretty serious resume. If Blame is $35,000, and Quality Road is $35,000, there's no reason that he should be any less than those two.

[LB]

I think you guys are going to end up being real low in the predictions for his stud fee. $30-40,000 would be probably right on. He's 2 year old and almost certainly 3 year old champion, he won the Del Mar Futurity, Norfolk, Hollywood Futurity, Preakness, and Haskell. That's a pretty serious resume. If Blame is $35,000, and Quality Road is $35,000, there's no reason that he should be any less than those two.

He'll be right there with them.

[Tappiano]

But they will breed him to anything with ovaries, so for that fee you can be one of 100 instead of one of 200. I don't think the mares in foal to Dunkirk have done as well as their owners thought they would.

[fastappy]

I don't think the mares in foal to Dunkirk have done as well as their owners thought they would.

Tappiano what do you mean by this statement. What have you heard or observed regarding Dunkirk? Are you referring to his book being so large as to dilute the value of the 2011 foals? Thanks!

[Tappiano]

I was referring to demand. Without trying to turn this into a debate on another stallion, if you look at Giant's Causeway and the sheer number of his offspring who go into the sales you need one that really stands out or you are going to get hurt. There have been many threads over the years and I believe somewhere in here is one where I posted his average, and it was awful. Same with Fusaichi Pegasus. That has never stopped any breeder from going to GC. I think there are hidden money trees growing at some of these breeders farms.

Then again, if anyone sends a mare to an Ashford stallion they must expect that there foal is going to be superior to the other 160 because surely they know there is never a "cap" on their stallions books. It just is illogical to me, in my humble opinion to keep up with the Jones's when surely there is another stallion at another farm that's going to get me a foal that represents a single digit percentage of the entries not double digits.

[fastappy]

Tappiano, thanks for the response. That is what I thought you were referring to but just wasn't sure. I agree with what you are saying. You had better have an outstanding foal to compete commercially with such large crops of a sire, unless there isn't that many in a regional market where you are trying to sell, you may be OK. 5-15K fee is within the regional breeders grasp, however.

Coincidentally, a friends of mine was subsequently relieved that their mare did not get in foal to Dunkirk once they realized he bred 186 mares ! 2nd only to (you guessed it) Giant's Causeway.

I'm scared to think how many they will breed to Lookin At Lucky, knowing Coolmore crunched the numbers and will take in more than he can potentially earn in 2011, with less risk of compromising their profits.

[LB]

Then again, if anyone sends a mare to an Ashford stallion they must expect that there foal is going to be superior to the other 160 because surely they know there is never a "cap" on their stallions books. It just is illogical to me, in my humble opinion to keep up with the Jones's when surely there is another stallion at another farm that's going to get me a foal that represents a single digit percentage of the entries not double digits.

Just to play devil's advocate: doesn't every breeder hope for a superior foal no matter who they send their mare to? It is illogical to me to think that if I went to a less popular stallion, I would or should be content with an average foal since the numbers would be in my favor.

There are two reasons why people breed to stallions with big books: because their offspring perform on the track and because buyers want them. I would rather have 1 of 180 Giant's Causeways than 1 of 30 Smarty Joneses.

[madelyn]

LB, I have to disagree with your statement about big books = perform on the track - Lucky, at Ashford, will likely have a huge book of mares. People are not sending all those mares because Lucky's foals can perform, since it is much too early to tell.