Who cares if he can't get a mile and an eighth on the 12th of Feb? Sure it would be nice, but it isn't necessary. Super Saver and Mine that Bird both failed at that distance, or less, and it didn't seem to matter in May.
He's proven to need more than a few races to be in top shape.
Besides, there are dozens of horses who 'got' the distance on synthetic and failed to pick up a check on dirt at CD.
I'll still take Comma to the Top over Boys at Toscanova or Tapizar, but certainly not Bretheren. Is is really fun to root for Bretheren? I mean that's like pulling for the house in blackjack.
Haskin's Derby Dozen
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BDW you hit the nail on the head. I have one owner who laments the fact his US based horses flame out at a mile while similarly bred ones flourish in Europe 2F further. Same bloodlines, wildly different results.
I know exactly what they do in France to get horses to run 10F when their pedigree says 'NO'. It's exactly what I get ripped for posting here. While our classic times have stayed the same for 80 years, winning times in the Arc de Triomphe are now 12 seconds faster than in 1930, despite the deliberate pace for the first 3 quarters of a mile:
http://horsetrainingscience.blogspot.co ... quals.html
Do you guys think I sit here and claim that I have found the 'holy grail"? Really? I have spent 10 hours a day for 3 years strictly on conditioning for stamina. Not handicapping, not making money, not sitting at my desk.
Trainers have accomplished this throughout history, and Mr. Clement is one of them. So is Jonathan Sheppard and Aiden O'Brien.
Goldikova has no raceday drugs in her system, and she spends an hour+ on the gallops. She does speedwork 2x as often as Uncle Mo and others and she routinely travels a mile in 1:44 during training hours.
If Pletcher and the others were getting these results, I would be touting their methods, but they are not. But most here don't want to hear it for whatever reason.
Horsemen will acknowledge that each horse is different and some can take more work than others - and turn around and never gallop a horse further than 2 miles and never breeze more often than every 6 days. Trainers themselves here in the US admit that to me. They simply don't have the resources to do so - so they get the results that we have become accustomed to.
I know exactly what they do in France to get horses to run 10F when their pedigree says 'NO'. It's exactly what I get ripped for posting here. While our classic times have stayed the same for 80 years, winning times in the Arc de Triomphe are now 12 seconds faster than in 1930, despite the deliberate pace for the first 3 quarters of a mile:
http://horsetrainingscience.blogspot.co ... quals.html
Do you guys think I sit here and claim that I have found the 'holy grail"? Really? I have spent 10 hours a day for 3 years strictly on conditioning for stamina. Not handicapping, not making money, not sitting at my desk.
Trainers have accomplished this throughout history, and Mr. Clement is one of them. So is Jonathan Sheppard and Aiden O'Brien.
Goldikova has no raceday drugs in her system, and she spends an hour+ on the gallops. She does speedwork 2x as often as Uncle Mo and others and she routinely travels a mile in 1:44 during training hours.
If Pletcher and the others were getting these results, I would be touting their methods, but they are not. But most here don't want to hear it for whatever reason.
Horsemen will acknowledge that each horse is different and some can take more work than others - and turn around and never gallop a horse further than 2 miles and never breeze more often than every 6 days. Trainers themselves here in the US admit that to me. They simply don't have the resources to do so - so they get the results that we have become accustomed to.
bpressey
When you speak about Super Saver and Mine That Bird do you think it is a coincidence that neither of them managed to win another race after their respective Derby wins? In my opinion Calvin was the main reason both of these horses managed a win in the Derby. Using the Derby as some type of measurement of class or training feat can be dangerous.
In any comparison of racing in Europe and the U.S. one must always remember the fact that European racing is almost exclusively on turf and training methods are much different. It is interesting that you would mention two trainers that excel with turf horses here and the fact that both come from European backgrounds and no doubt utilize that knowledge to great extent.
You talk a good game, results will indicate whether or not it is the Holy Grail. I wish you all the luck in the world.
DDT
When you speak about Super Saver and Mine That Bird do you think it is a coincidence that neither of them managed to win another race after their respective Derby wins? In my opinion Calvin was the main reason both of these horses managed a win in the Derby. Using the Derby as some type of measurement of class or training feat can be dangerous.
In any comparison of racing in Europe and the U.S. one must always remember the fact that European racing is almost exclusively on turf and training methods are much different. It is interesting that you would mention two trainers that excel with turf horses here and the fact that both come from European backgrounds and no doubt utilize that knowledge to great extent.
You talk a good game, results will indicate whether or not it is the Holy Grail. I wish you all the luck in the world.
DDT
Thanks DDT, I guess?
I used Super Saver and Mine that Bird as examples because we were discussing Derby performances exclusively, especially in the light of failing at shorter distances in Feb. They went on to crap careers because they are under-conditioned, and Uncle Mo will meet the same fate as 23 of the last 25 BC Juvie winners, if he makes it that far.
It was asked what Europe does to outrun pedigree versus the US, so I answered. Elsewhere someone mentioned how great Snow Fairy looks going into the Dubai Cup:
Ed Dunlop Stables-
The winner of the 2010 Oaks, 'Snow Fairy' was trained using the Polar Equine RS800CX HR/GPS monitor that I employ. Mr. Dunlop employs a Veterinary Physiotherapist for that purpose.
Not a client of mine, but a user of my technology. Can you blast 1:44 miles on dirt with a Derby hopeful?, nope. But you can start at 2:08 and work your way down safely, if you have some objective data to consult.
The US did well in Dubai when it was dirt, now we get our clocks cleaned that it is Tapeta. Look at it on the bright side, now Sheikh Mo will have even more difficulty winning the Derby while training on that stuff in his backyard.
I used Super Saver and Mine that Bird as examples because we were discussing Derby performances exclusively, especially in the light of failing at shorter distances in Feb. They went on to crap careers because they are under-conditioned, and Uncle Mo will meet the same fate as 23 of the last 25 BC Juvie winners, if he makes it that far.
It was asked what Europe does to outrun pedigree versus the US, so I answered. Elsewhere someone mentioned how great Snow Fairy looks going into the Dubai Cup:
Ed Dunlop Stables-
The winner of the 2010 Oaks, 'Snow Fairy' was trained using the Polar Equine RS800CX HR/GPS monitor that I employ. Mr. Dunlop employs a Veterinary Physiotherapist for that purpose.
Not a client of mine, but a user of my technology. Can you blast 1:44 miles on dirt with a Derby hopeful?, nope. But you can start at 2:08 and work your way down safely, if you have some objective data to consult.
The US did well in Dubai when it was dirt, now we get our clocks cleaned that it is Tapeta. Look at it on the bright side, now Sheikh Mo will have even more difficulty winning the Derby while training on that stuff in his backyard.
DDT wrote:bpressey
In any comparison of racing in Europe and the U.S. one must always remember the fact that European racing is almost exclusively on turf and training methods are much different. It is interesting that you would mention two trainers that excel with turf horses here and the fact that both come from European backgrounds and no doubt utilize that knowledge to great extent.
DDT
So, is it not reasonable to assume that dirt based US trainers can mimic some of these European turf methods and squeeze out an extra 12 sec eighth?
bpressey
Sure it is possible, I never said it was impossible to train a horse to get longer distance, what is nearly impossible is to get the horse to run that extra distance in race horse time. In my opinion training technique is the key to success, I meant the "good luck", it was not written to be sarcastic in any manner.
DDT
Sure it is possible, I never said it was impossible to train a horse to get longer distance, what is nearly impossible is to get the horse to run that extra distance in race horse time. In my opinion training technique is the key to success, I meant the "good luck", it was not written to be sarcastic in any manner.
DDT
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Interesting he didn't win that race.
Their last hope for the five million is the San Felipe and then the SA Derby - we will see if they greedy for it, I mean go for it - kinda doubtful, but nothing to lose considering he is a gelding. Hopefully they will toss their plans for the five million and concentrate on the SA Derby and the Kentucky Derby.
I don't understand why he ran him so wide at the beginning of the race and so wide at the top of the stretch. Nevertheless, first time on the Tapeta - gotta toss that one. Can't draw any conclusions based on that one race at a new track on a new surface. I wouldn't count him out just yet - from what I've read he now heads south to the dirt of Santa Anita. It will be interesting to watch his progression to another new track and another new surface - the different venues may be a good experience. At this point, I think he outruns Brethern.
Their last hope for the five million is the San Felipe and then the SA Derby - we will see if they greedy for it, I mean go for it - kinda doubtful, but nothing to lose considering he is a gelding. Hopefully they will toss their plans for the five million and concentrate on the SA Derby and the Kentucky Derby.
I don't understand why he ran him so wide at the beginning of the race and so wide at the top of the stretch. Nevertheless, first time on the Tapeta - gotta toss that one. Can't draw any conclusions based on that one race at a new track on a new surface. I wouldn't count him out just yet - from what I've read he now heads south to the dirt of Santa Anita. It will be interesting to watch his progression to another new track and another new surface - the different venues may be a good experience. At this point, I think he outruns Brethern.
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas
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It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
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It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
Many European horses also warm up quite extensively before a race, minus a lead pony. Some are seen breezing a few 15s furlongs before a 2 mile race. No one seems to be worried about 'leaving their race' in the post parade, either.
American horses are rank because they are never taught to relax at any speeds faster than a 2 minute lick. Most of them are so jacked up from 23.5 hours a day in the stall they require a lead pony so they don't freak out in the post parade.
Training is all short 4F bursts in :48. Speed, speed, speed. Because of the US style of dirt racing, this is necessary - just not to the exclusion of longer, slower works, IMHO.
Horses are different that humans. Even a short 6F race is 70% aerobic in nature. Aerobic stamina is more vital than most realize, and you can't get it when seeing the track for 11 minutes a day.
Now that I think about it, I remember a few years back at CD Trackside a woman trainer and her female riders spent an hour with each horse in the a.m, mainly cantering mile after mile. She was a bottom of the barrel trainer, cheap claimers for mainly women owners. All the old timers HATED her for this and ripped her regularly, behind her back of course.
She just ran second in the BC Marathon with Prince Will.I.Am before being disqualified. All her critics are still working with those bottom level claimers. She is a former Pletcher asst. as well. Michelle Nihei is the name.
Even Carl Nafzger had to hide the fact that he would breeze Unbridled 4F before every race, even the Derby. He had to hide it because the media would rip him if Unbridled lost. These days any trainer willing to do something different would risk enduring the wrath of the blogging universe - and getting owners is so competitive, it will likely never happen.
BDW, I hope you are in the game in some aspect, because you are asking the right questions.
American horses are rank because they are never taught to relax at any speeds faster than a 2 minute lick. Most of them are so jacked up from 23.5 hours a day in the stall they require a lead pony so they don't freak out in the post parade.
Training is all short 4F bursts in :48. Speed, speed, speed. Because of the US style of dirt racing, this is necessary - just not to the exclusion of longer, slower works, IMHO.
Horses are different that humans. Even a short 6F race is 70% aerobic in nature. Aerobic stamina is more vital than most realize, and you can't get it when seeing the track for 11 minutes a day.
Now that I think about it, I remember a few years back at CD Trackside a woman trainer and her female riders spent an hour with each horse in the a.m, mainly cantering mile after mile. She was a bottom of the barrel trainer, cheap claimers for mainly women owners. All the old timers HATED her for this and ripped her regularly, behind her back of course.
She just ran second in the BC Marathon with Prince Will.I.Am before being disqualified. All her critics are still working with those bottom level claimers. She is a former Pletcher asst. as well. Michelle Nihei is the name.
Even Carl Nafzger had to hide the fact that he would breeze Unbridled 4F before every race, even the Derby. He had to hide it because the media would rip him if Unbridled lost. These days any trainer willing to do something different would risk enduring the wrath of the blogging universe - and getting owners is so competitive, it will likely never happen.
BDW, I hope you are in the game in some aspect, because you are asking the right questions.
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I was sent a horse from owners that had her with Michelle. They were told the filly had a suspensory and should be retired. The filly had many minor problems that needed to be taken care of and needed serious maintenance, but has never had an issue with her suspensory in 1 1/2 years with me and has run 21 times since then.
Uncle Mo: Seattle Slew or War Pass? I think we have our answer.
January 29th: “My two cents: a 50% chance that Uncle Mo will get injured during his prep for the Derby. He’ll only breeze 4F a few times, he’ll only race twice – and I think he comes up lame in the process. I hope not, but that is what I forsee.”
January 29th: “My two cents: a 50% chance that Uncle Mo will get injured during his prep for the Derby. He’ll only breeze 4F a few times, he’ll only race twice – and I think he comes up lame in the process. I hope not, but that is what I forsee.”
bpressey wrote:Uncle Mo: Seattle Slew or War Pass? I think we have our answer.
January 29th: “My two cents: a 50% chance that Uncle Mo will get injured during his prep for the Derby. He’ll only breeze 4F a few times, he’ll only race twice – and I think he comes up lame in the process. I hope not, but that is what I forsee.”
Hi bp,
Let's hope your Jan. 29th forecast doesn't come to pass. I'd like to see all the remaining prospects train well, stay healthy and take their spot in the Derby starting gate. TJ
Good morning TJ, I hope I am wrong too - it sucks watching all of the talented stock sit on the sidelines during the TC season.
I must add: many rumblings out there in the handicapping world that Uncle Mo has had soundness issues all along that have not been made public. Personally I doubt this, as Pletcher has been over the top in his praise for Mo at every opportunity – would he really do this if he was worried in the least bit, or would he be furiously tempering his owners enthusiasm, instead of feeding it?
So, perhaps Pletcher’s desire to have a ‘fresh’ horse come TC season is some sort of smokescreen – possibly Mo has been lame since last fall and is being held together by duct tape, hence the powderpuff 4F breezes and light prep schedule.
If this is true the same must be said for Eskendereya and Quality Road in years past. So either Pletcher has the misfortune of being gifted with 3 possible legendary athletes in a row who just can’t stay sound – or, it’s his (lack of) conditioning protocol that is causing these issues.
Once more: horses get hurt, we know this, it happens. But do we regale Pletcher as a god and submit to the fact that his 35% injury rate is the best anyone can do – or do we attempt to make changes to cut that number to 25% or better?
Finally, it is precisely the athletic brilliance of Uncle Mo that has done him in, lesser horses cannot run fast enough, nor far enough, to put themselves into so much trouble physiologically. If sound, and that is a big if, an athlete like this is the exact kind that can benefit from more, not less, conditioning in the beautiful early mornings at Palm Meadows. Many equine athletes who are born with such precocious skill sets are also born with the ability to respond to an appropriate exercise stimulus.
Forget the fact that Secretariat also ran 3rd in his Derby prep season. We are talking apples and oranges here. Secretariat, and Seattle Slew for that matter, were breezing miles in 1:40 weekly at this point in their careers.
Those horses were tanks and today’s colts are 10-speed bicycles.
Finally, Comma to the Top, my Jan pick, is finished - but nearly $1mil in graded earnings for a $20k FL purchase ain't bad for this former claimer. He ran his guts out in the SA Derby in finishing 2nd albeit over a field weakened by the injury bug. I would say he maximized his potential over his 15 starts at age 2-3, the same cannot be said for many others just yet.
I must add: many rumblings out there in the handicapping world that Uncle Mo has had soundness issues all along that have not been made public. Personally I doubt this, as Pletcher has been over the top in his praise for Mo at every opportunity – would he really do this if he was worried in the least bit, or would he be furiously tempering his owners enthusiasm, instead of feeding it?
So, perhaps Pletcher’s desire to have a ‘fresh’ horse come TC season is some sort of smokescreen – possibly Mo has been lame since last fall and is being held together by duct tape, hence the powderpuff 4F breezes and light prep schedule.
If this is true the same must be said for Eskendereya and Quality Road in years past. So either Pletcher has the misfortune of being gifted with 3 possible legendary athletes in a row who just can’t stay sound – or, it’s his (lack of) conditioning protocol that is causing these issues.
Once more: horses get hurt, we know this, it happens. But do we regale Pletcher as a god and submit to the fact that his 35% injury rate is the best anyone can do – or do we attempt to make changes to cut that number to 25% or better?
Finally, it is precisely the athletic brilliance of Uncle Mo that has done him in, lesser horses cannot run fast enough, nor far enough, to put themselves into so much trouble physiologically. If sound, and that is a big if, an athlete like this is the exact kind that can benefit from more, not less, conditioning in the beautiful early mornings at Palm Meadows. Many equine athletes who are born with such precocious skill sets are also born with the ability to respond to an appropriate exercise stimulus.
Forget the fact that Secretariat also ran 3rd in his Derby prep season. We are talking apples and oranges here. Secretariat, and Seattle Slew for that matter, were breezing miles in 1:40 weekly at this point in their careers.
Those horses were tanks and today’s colts are 10-speed bicycles.
Finally, Comma to the Top, my Jan pick, is finished - but nearly $1mil in graded earnings for a $20k FL purchase ain't bad for this former claimer. He ran his guts out in the SA Derby in finishing 2nd albeit over a field weakened by the injury bug. I would say he maximized his potential over his 15 starts at age 2-3, the same cannot be said for many others just yet.
bpressey wrote:Good morning TJ, I hope I am wrong too - it sucks watching all of the talented stock sit on the sidelines during the TC season.
I must add: many rumblings out there in the handicapping world that Uncle Mo has had soundness issues all along that have not been made public. Personally I doubt this, as Pletcher has been over the top in his praise for Mo at every opportunity – would he really do this if he was worried in the least bit, or would he be furiously tempering his owners enthusiasm, instead of feeding it?
So, perhaps Pletcher’s desire to have a ‘fresh’ horse come TC season is some sort of smokescreen – possibly Mo has been lame since last fall and is being held together by duct tape, hence the powderpuff 4F breezes and light prep schedule.
If this is true the same must be said for Eskendereya and Quality Road in years past. So either Pletcher has the misfortune of being gifted with 3 possible legendary athletes in a row who just can’t stay sound – or, it’s his (lack of) conditioning protocol that is causing these issues.
Once more: horses get hurt, we know this, it happens. But do we regale Pletcher as a god and submit to the fact that his 35% injury rate is the best anyone can do – or do we attempt to make changes to cut that number to 25% or better?
Finally, it is precisely the athletic brilliance of Uncle Mo that has done him in, lesser horses cannot run fast enough, nor far enough, to put themselves into so much trouble physiologically. If sound, and that is a big if, an athlete like this is the exact kind that can benefit from more, not less, conditioning in the beautiful early mornings at Palm Meadows. Many equine athletes who are born with such precocious skill sets are also born with the ability to respond to an appropriate exercise stimulus.
Forget the fact that Secretariat also ran 3rd in his Derby prep season. We are talking apples and oranges here. Secretariat, and Seattle Slew for that matter, were breezing miles in 1:40 weekly at this point in their careers.
Those horses were tanks and today’s colts are 10-speed bicycles.
Finally, Comma to the Top, my Jan pick, is finished - but nearly $1mil in graded earnings for a $20k FL purchase ain't bad for this former claimer. He ran his guts out in the SA Derby in finishing 2nd albeit over a field weakened by the injury bug. I would say he maximized his potential over his 15 starts at age 2-3, the same cannot be said for many others just yet.
Hi bp,
Let's face it, this is the time of the year for 3YO's to come unglued. As disturbing as it is for us, you can imagine how disappointing it is for the owner's and trainer's.
Comma to the Top was a great buy, I wish he could have hung in there a bit more.....he is a hard knocker and would have been a deserving winner of the SA Derby. As it turned out, the SA Derby was as bad as the Wood when you consider the SA winner was eligible to a first level allowance race.
Concerning Uncle Mo's soundness.....I've not seen anything amiss, but I don't follow him home after his work. Pletcher doesn't whitewash trouble, every horse in his barn is taken out of their stall and jogged down the street after training hours with Pletcher, his assistants and sometimes his Vet looking on to ward off a possible problem. I like Pletcher as a person and as a horseman. His praise for Uncle Mo is legitimate but was taken out of his preferred game plan by shipping to NY for the Wood. Now after a bad race he has to stay in NY and train over the Belmont strip for his Derby attempt. If he isn't 100% the Belmont strip will bring it out faster than Palm Meadow's would have. I'm not yet convinced that Mo is done.....unless something comes up in the next couple days....but I really don't expect that, but I guess I'm an eternal optimist:>)
I certainly agree with you that sore horses, all horses for that matter.... respond well to proper stimulating exercise....if they can' t stand training they can't win anyway. But all horses have a breaking point and it's your job as a trainer to know how far you can push one before the breaking point wins over your training methods and race schedule for your animal.
You are right again, Uncle Mo is no Secretariat....but you're wrong about Big Red ever working a mile in 1:40 in his life:>) I was out there the morning he had his major work for his Belmont Stakes.....he worked a handy mile in 1:34.4 with Ron Turcotte in the boot....that was on Friday June 1, 1973. Five days later, Laurin wanted to make very sure he was ready (:>) and worked another 1/2 that Wednesday, June 6th in 46.3 breezing. As we all know, Secretariat followed those amazing works 3 days later, Saturday June 9th by winning the Belmont Stakes and running his 1 1/2 miles in 2:24 flat. They broke the mold after this guy was born:>) Nice to see you back posting. TJ