Stallion Indicators of a failure

[Jorge]

Post the earliest indicators you have learned to watch that betrays that a sire will be a failure as a sire (and I am not talking about sterility issues).

[dublino]

A passport that has a stamp of Korea or Turkey in it.

[da hossman]

Actually Dublino there is a saying in KY "the only sure way to make a stallion is to kill him or sell him overseas"...said in jest of course. The most recent example would be Lion Heart - previous being Sunday Silence, Forty Niner, Brian's Time, Dehere, etc.

[Bast]

Actually Dublino there is a saying in KY "the only sure way to make a stallion is to kill him or sell him overseas"...said in jest of course. The most recent example would be Lion Heart - previous being Sunday Silence, Forty Niner, Brian's Time, Dehere, etc.

Something else that moves up a stallion is the death of his sire or dam.

[Bohemia]

A first crop with no stakes winners and few overall winners. Usually you don't see a stallion rebound after a poor start.

[Jorge]

A first crop with no stakes winners and few overall winners. Usually you don't see a stallion rebound after a poor start.

Thats a good one!

What about sucesive change of owners (lets say, one per year) during the first two years at stud?

[Bast]

Few or none of the offspring look anything like the sire.

[Jorge]

How would all of you interpret when a stallion exits Kentucky during the first 3 years at stud?

[kimberley mine]

How would all of you interpret when a stallion exits Kentucky during the first 3 years at stud?

Used to be an indicator that his connections were giving up early. Now, it depends on where he goes. There have been a few who went to New York, Pennsylvania, or Louisiana and the connections explicitly stated it was to take advantage of breeders' awards. Maybe not so much with LA, but with PA being close enough for good mares to ship easily and NY having a strong pool already, that's not the automatic writeoff it used to be.

[Crystal]

If you want your stallion to never see a mare beside your own.. Jump him from barn to barn.. makes you look cheap. Also sends a messege to other barn owners either you're a jerk or a non-payer.

[JCBloodstock]

How would all of you interpret when a stallion exits Kentucky during the first 3 years at stud?

After the first 3 years is a combination of factors some of which are:

1.) Highly syndicated stallions whose shares are sold to investors, not mare owners. They buy in on the belief that their shares will increase in value, which very few do but the majority don't. I once purchased a stallion in a 40 share syndicate for a client ( purchased controlling interest - 21 shares); The owner of the 21 shares was only breeding 9 mares a year and the the other 19 share holders had never owned a mare in their life. They purchased off the promotion that these $25,000 shares would be worth $100,000 in a matter of no time. The horse did sire a Grade 1 Stakes Winner and became an honest regional sire for the clients I purchased him for.

2.) The highly inflated costs associated with standing a stallion in Kentucky creates their exit even if they do hit a few good runners. Some of these farms are known to charge shareowners from $6,000 to $10,000 per share all under the guise of care and advertising costs. I had another client that wanted to sell 3 shares that they had purchased the year prior to a top 50 year in and year out leading sire. Problem was the stallion farm where he stood stuck them with a $6,000 board & advertising bill on each of those 3 shares the first year and they decided they wanted to just pay stud fee's instead of being in the share market. Just imagine, $6,000 a share on 40 shares = $240,000 a year for care and advertising.

3.) Another is stallion farms with no personal investment in the stallion. They depend on the public to make the horse and if he doesn't hit, it's no loss to them. They care about one thing and one thing only - how much money can they bring in the door for the less cost to them. In the dog business they call that a puppy mill.

4.) Sometimes, it's not the stallions fault and sometimes their are stallions out there that even the stallion farms don't have much faith in that do rise above expectations. Some that come to mind include Mr. Prospector, Saint Ballado, Valid Appeal, Red Ransom, Maria's Mon, Candy Ride, Elusive Quality, Smart Strike, In Excess, Pirate's Bounty, Phone Trick, ect.

[Jorge]

How would all of you interpret when a stallion exits Kentucky during the first 3 years at stud?

After the first 3 years is a combination of factors some of which are:

1.) Highly syndicated stallions whose shares are sold to investors, not mare owners. They buy in on the belief that their shares will increase in value, which very few do but the majority don't. I once purchased a stallion in a 40 share syndicate for a client ( purchased controlling interest - 21 shares); The owner of the 21 shares was only breeding 9 mares a year and the the other 19 share holders had never owned a mare in their life. They purchased off the promotion that these $25,000 shares would be worth $100,000 in a matter of no time. The horse did sire a Grade 1 Stakes Winner and became an honest regional sire for the clients I purchased him for.

2.) The highly inflated costs associated with standing a stallion in Kentucky creates their exit even if they do hit a few good runners. Some of these farms are known to charge shareowners from $6,000 to $10,000 per share all under the guise of care and advertising costs. I had another client that wanted to sell 3 shares that they had purchased the year prior to a top 50 year in and year out leading sire. Problem was the stallion farm where he stood stuck them with a $6,000 board & advertising bill on each of those 3 shares the first year and they decided they wanted to just pay stud fee's instead of being in the share market. Just imagine, $6,000 a share on 40 shares = $240,000 a year for care and advertising.

3.) Another is stallion farms with no personal investment in the stallion. They depend on the public to make the horse and if he doesn't hit, it's no loss to them. They care about one thing and one thing only - how much money can they bring in the door for the less cost to them. In the dog business they call that a puppy mill.

4.) Sometimes, it's not the stallions fault and sometimes their are stallions out there that even the stallion farms don't have much faith in that do rise above expectations. Some that come to mind include Mr. Prospector, Saint Ballado, Valid Appeal, Red Ransom, Maria's Mon, Candy Ride, Elusive Quality, Smart Strike, In Excess, Pirate's Bounty, Phone Trick, ect.

Thank you very much "JCBloostock" for sharing your insight and experience.

Here is another one I have seen, specially in certain States:
All his male progeny are gelded. It's like an epidemic. There they go,
the good ones and the bad ones.

On this one, I disagree with the general rule of thumb because how come are you going to predict if a horse who is coming from a decent sire and family is an unworthy future sire?

Regarding this criteria, since there are many people shutting-off doors prematurely, there you can find a golden gem, specially for the smaller states.

But anyway, some people use that criteria. Premature in my opinion.

[Roger]

I don't know this to true all the time, but one of the most common reasons a horse leaves Kentucky, is the need for room for the next crop of stallions. It happens yearly, so you would expect some good ones to get away.

[Jorge]

Another indicator:

When you don't see any son or daughter of a stallion winning a 6 furlongs race in 1:10 or faster within the first crop of juveniles.

This is a rule of thumb, regardless the appearance of a future allowance winners in succesive generations.

[freshman]

Bad signs for the commercial stallion: Poor sales figures on the first yearlings. This can indicate bad physicals or just bad luck (maybe the first few don't sell well, and then suddenly one wants them, who knows). In the spring, commercial breeders don't just feel like coughing up big bucks, or sending their good mares at any price, to breed to a new sire that tanked at Keeneland the previous fall. Other than that, a first crop without decent 2-year old winners, no stakes horses, etc.


Stallions are set up for failure by farms and/or owner interests that do not support him with their own good mares. There used to be such things as breeding programs, etc, a la Claiborne. Must be knowledgeable horsemen, independently wealthy, and have maintain active longterm interest to do this--rare indeed. Also farm hopping, as in standing 1st season here, 2nd season there, etc, is a negative factor.