You are getting into some real advanced handicapping but this is where the money is made.
No doubt, this is where we sort em' out.
If you look at it.. you have to ask yourself what the objectives are. "Soldat is in. He needs no more money. there are no questions about his stamina. You can raise some questions about his ability to handle pressure (pace) but, that's not worth having him fully cranked up for this race. In other words, take the obvious 1 million dollar purse off the table, there is no reason to have him peaked for this race.
The purse may not be everything, you've also gotta consider stud fees. Better to have your colt winning two G1 races, particularly the high profile races, rather than lose them.
Say the Baff backs off on TF a bit and purposely comes up short in the AD. If in doing so will TF be at his best come the KD? Doesn't the Baff consider what Soldat is doing, running three nine furlong races before the Derby? I think the Baff goes all out to win the AD, he has to, considering what McLaughlin is doing with Soldat. TF has to come in dead fit or in as good as condition as possible because some of the others will be.
Irrespective of what TF does, I believe he will ultimately run short of energy come the big dance.
The horse that concerns me in the FOY is not THAS, although I think he will likely run better than he did in the FOY, it is Dialed In that concerns me. I think Zito will have DI fully cranked for this one - Soldat will be forced to hoss' up! I think DI get the distance, but I don't think he has run against these kind - he finally has to face to top notch horses! I think he either has it or he doesn't. I say no, all in.
