Louis's Blog on Inbreeding

[kimberley mine]

Just a quick question. Are low level horses insured? Are they worth more dead than alive?

I think that depends on the individual owner, the horse, and whether that horse has any residual breeding value.

[Shammy Davis]

Xfactor: I've often wondered about insurance on lowel level claimers, etc. myself. I do know that with mortality insurance, the owner must prove the value of the horse. There are also caps on other types of insurance. As I understand it with mortality insurance, the level of racing is unaffected once the policy is executed.

Here is a link with some general information.

http://www.autoinsurancediary.com/auto- ... nce-guide/

[DDT]

Over the past couple of years I have attempted to discuss the main flaw in Louis' theory, that being the data collection and examination. Because the Ph sire line stallions and mares outnumber the non-Ph lines it would be necessary to collect and compare data utilizing a level playing field, meaning an equal number of runners from each group. I did a little preliminary collecting and thought it might be interesting. The Bloodhorse has a leading sires category for North American raced individuals. The list contains 150 stallions arranged by earnings. Of those 150 only 15 are Non-Phalaris tail male while the other 135 are Phalaris. These leading sires represent about 5% of all stallions standing in North America. In 2010 there were 68,235 starters and over 22,000 of them come from this list, almost 33%. so we have less than 5% of the stallions standing at stud siring almost 33% of the runners. On any average racing card, in California, New York or Florida, the entries contain 85-90% Ph tail male runners. With these kinds of numbers it is easy to see why Ph line stallions have more breakdowns, it is simple, they have a 8-1, 9-1 numerical advantage to begin with.

There are other areas that need attention, but I just cannot go on with this, it is useless.

DDT

[Shammy Davis]

DDT posted:

Over the past couple of years I have attempted to discuss the main flaw in Louis' theory, that being the data collection and examination. Because the Ph sire line stallions and mares outnumber the non-Ph lines it would be necessary to collect and compare data utilizing a level playing field, meaning an equal number of runners from each group. I did a little preliminary collecting and thought it might be interesting. The Bloodhorse has a leading sires category for North American raced individuals. The list contains 150 stallions arranged by earnings. Of those 150 only 15 are Non-Phalaris tail male while the other 135 are Phalaris. These leading sires represent about 5% of all stallions standing in North America. In 2010 there were 68,235 starters and over 22,000 of them come from this list, almost 33%. so we have less than 5% of the stallions standing at stud producing almost 33% of the runners. On any average racing card, in California, New York or Florida, the entries contain 85-90% Ph tail male runners. With these kinds of numbers it is easy to see why Ph line stallions have more breakdowns, it is simple, they have a 8-1, 9-1 numerical advantage to begin with.

There are other areas that need attention, but I just cannot go on with this, it is useless.

No one can blame you for making better use of your time and experience. The link below might help to put things into perspective as you move on to other threads.

http://www.gandalf.it/stupid/chap09.pdf

[Bast]

Over the past couple of years I have attempted to discuss the main flaw in Louis' theory, that being the data collection and examination.

Even if the data could be complied, I doubt if Louis would be swayed. He believes what he believes, and ignores all else.

[Bast]

http://www.gandalf.it/stupid/chap09.pdf

Get a bunch of people together acting stupidity and it can be amazing how far they can go.

At a corporation which I shall not name, but where I toiled for many years, a new formula of an old and trusted personal care product was proposed and put into clinical trials. The results were...minimal...in fact, hardly noticeable if not...nonexistent. But someone made much of them, and before long, dozens of people were busily working on the Next Big Thing, tweaking the formula, designing the packaging, and generally getting it ready to roll out the door.

Someone else, Higher Up, happened to review the project, and realized that the science just wasn't there behind this wonderful new Thing...and that the whole project was built on fluff and hyperbole, and desire of engineers and project managers to advance their careers.

The entire group was gathered in one place, told to NEVER sin like this again, split up so they would not be working together, and the product yanked from the pipeline.

This is an absolutely true story. Corporate America is not as slick as it thinks. Stupidity, and the tendency of people to go along with the crowd, can have dire effects.

[louis finochio]

The Photo of Dynamite Mike reads NFB, DM has inherited his robust conformation thru his NFB pedigree. DM forearm is in porportion to his large frame. While the photo dosent show his legs, I know his width of cannon bones is right on. DM has a colts head, of great wide colt appearance, his eyes show his love of his well being.

[DDT]

Louis

Because Dynamite Mike is a South African bred horse that never raced in North America he has very little to do with FB/NFB, but I know NFB's are hard to find so you have to discuss each one. He is also a gelding, racing is the only way he could earn his keep. I thought you were concerned about our breeding industry and breakdowns, not the rest of the world.

DDT

[BenB]

Louis, writes only a name without proving anything.

So unless he is making a usefull remark. I wait with further response as this goes on for five years.

I think when nobody responses anymore this thread will be closed within a couple off months.

[Shammy Davis]

Louis: Visual estimates of equine conformational size are highly unreliable. There have been a number of good studies on this subject. I was able to find one publication that comes to this conclusion related to estimation of equine weight. Read the first paragraph in the link below.

http://animalscience.tamu.edu/images/pd ... weight.pdf

You will note that the researchers have provided a simple formula. Simple is the key word.

Good equine conformation research is based on taking measurements. Your attempt to assess size from a photo is absurb. You don't know anything about the horse in the picture and once again proves that you need to keep your imagination in check.

[Bast]

The Photo of Dynamite Mike reads NFB, DM has inherited his robust conformation thru his NFB pedigree. DM forearm is in porportion to his large frame. While the photo dosent show his legs, I know his width of cannon bones is right on. DM has a colts head, of great wide colt appearance, his eyes show his love of his well being.

Dynamite Mike a NFB? Really? He has 52 crosses of Phalaris. Nine of his 5th generation ancestors are free of Phalaris.

Bay Ronald (1893)
……Bayardo
…………Gainsborough
………………Hyperion
……………………Owen Tudor
…………………………Tudor Minstrel (1x to Phalaris)

Phalaris (52 total crosses to Phalaris)
……Pharos
…………Nearco
………………Nasrullah
……………………Grey Sovereign*
…………………………Young Emperor* (2x to Phalaris)
……………………Red God
…………………………Yellow God* (3x to Phalaris)
……………………Bold Ruler
…………………………Irish Castle* (3x to Phalaris)
………………Nearctic* 5 X 5
………………Arctic Star
……………………Fidalgo
…………………………Ruby’s Princess* (3x to Phalaris)
………………Royal Charger
……………………Turn-to
…………………………Hail to Reason
………………………………Bold Reason* (2x to Phalaris)
…………………………Sir Gaylord
………………………………Sir Ivor* (3x to Phalaris)
……Fairway
…………Honeyway
………………Sweet Nothings* (2x to Phalaris)
……Sickle
…………Unbreakable
………………Polynesian
……………………Native Dancer
…………………………Natalma*

Agin the Law (Cyllene)
Seximee (Teddy)
Santa Claus (Hurry On) (3x to Phalaris)
Belle of Athens (Swynford) (1x to Phalaris)
Novara (Bay Ronald) (2x to Phalaris)
Hook Money (Bay Ronald)
Matterhorn (Ormonde) (4x to Phalaris)
Crocket (Bay Ronald) (3x to Phalaris)
Gallissa (Ormonde) (5x to Phalaris)
Special (Bay Ronald) (3x to Phalaris)
Best in Show (Bay Ronald)
Aggressor (Swynford) (2x to Phalaris)
Pelting (Ormonde) (1x to Phalaris)
Herbager (Bay Ronald) (3x to Phalaris)
Polamia (Swynford)
Comely Nell (Teddy)
Ribot (St Simon) (1x to Phalaris)
All Beautiful (Fair Play)
Princequillo (St Simon)
Olympia Dell (Bay Ronald) (1x to Phalaris)

[Bast]

So, inbreeding means more breakdowns?

Consider Fire Hints

http://www.pedigreequery.com/fire+hints

a son of Fire Dancer, an unraced Northern Dancer stallion. Fire Hints is inbred 4 X 4 to Native Dancer and 3 X 4 to Rough'n Tumble, and raced 162 times.

But Fire Hints is not unique! There are several other sons of Fire Dancer with more than 100 starts:

The Mighty Zip 1988 gelding 151 starts.
4 X 4 Native Dancer
4 X 5 Nearco

Test of Loyalty 1983 gelding 110 starts.
An incredible amount of inbreeding:
3 X 3 Nearctic
4 X 4 X 5 X 5 Nearco
4 X 4 Native Dancer
4 X 4 Royal Charger

Ocala Flame 1998 horse 122 starts
4 X 4 Native Dancer
4 X 5 Nearco
3 X 5 Nasrullah
5 X 5 Mahmoud

Mactaquac 1991 gelding 129 starts
4 X 4 X 5 Native Dancer
4 X 5 Almahmoud

French Flame 1981 horse 102 starts
4 X 4 Native Dancer
3 X 5 Count Fleet

Fire North 1986 horse 103 starts
4 X 4 Native Dancer
5 X 5 Count Fleet
5 X 5 Heliopolis

Fire Devil 1989 gelding 158 starts
4 X 4 Native Dancer
4 X 5 Nearco

Dancing Jason 1988 gelding 135 starts
4 X 4 Native Dancer

[louis finochio]

Fire Hint is Inbred to these NP stallions & mares:

3 X 4 Rough n' Tumble=Questionnaire----4 X 5 Free for All=Questionnaire
4 X 5 Roused mare=Teddy----5 x 5 Geisha mare=Fair Play

FH is Inbred to these Ph stallions:

4 X 4 Native Dancer----5 X 5 Polynesian.

FH is a NFB, that has Inherited his soundness from his prolific crosss of NP stallions & mares within his 5 generation pedigree.

FH was bred from a Ph. over Questionnaire NFB mating. These NFB matings are history of the past. These FB of the present do not have available those NP stallions thru Inbreeding, as those breeders of Fashion are breeding for speed not soundness.

[xfactor fan]

How can Geisha be both a source of soundness and unsoundness?

[Bast]

Fire Hint is Inbred to these NP stallions & mares:

3 X 4 Rough n' Tumble=Questionnaire----4 X 5 Free for All=Questionnaire
4 X 5 Roused mare=Teddy----5 x 5 Geisha mare=Fair Play

FH is Inbred to these Ph stallions:

4 X 4 Native Dancer----5 X 5 Polynesian.

FH is a NFB, that has Inherited his soundness from his prolific crosss of NP stallions & mares within his 5 generation pedigree.

FH was bred from a Ph. over Questionnaire NFB mating. These NFB matings are history of the past. These FB of the present do not have available those NP stallions thru Inbreeding, as those breeders of Fashion are breeding for speed not soundness.

Somehow, an unraced son of Northern Dancer, supposedly a source of unsoundness, bred to a variety of mares, sired several individuals with more than 100 starts...but Louis can only see what he wants to see.