Forget the derby trail preps, they are walkovers
this is the real race
http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing ... hland.aspx
Dancinginherdreams v. Kathmanblu
who wins?
Ashland
Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster
In stakes races at Keeneland over the past three years, the betting favorite has won 27½% of the time, while the 2nd favorite has won 20½% of the time. So, combined, the first two favorites win less than half the stakes races at Keeneland. So, based on history, it’s most likely the winner will be "none of the above". 
That’s what the stats say …
Kathmanblu looks good, but take a look at two others who also ran in the BC 2yoF races last year: Delighful Mary and Wyomia. Both had successful returns to action, and we can’t tell where they may be in terms of their improvement from last year. Either one could be getting good now, and a win would not surprise me in either case. Similar arguments could be made for others in this race as well, I’m sure.
The Ashland could be one of the best races anywhere this weekend, in my opinion; I’m really looking forward to it! My final selection will be based on value: what the actual wagering shows close to post time … will probably bet on an overlay, even if she’s not the most likely winner. (That’s the way to make money at the races over the long haul, in my experience.)
That’s what the stats say …
Kathmanblu looks good, but take a look at two others who also ran in the BC 2yoF races last year: Delighful Mary and Wyomia. Both had successful returns to action, and we can’t tell where they may be in terms of their improvement from last year. Either one could be getting good now, and a win would not surprise me in either case. Similar arguments could be made for others in this race as well, I’m sure.
The Ashland could be one of the best races anywhere this weekend, in my opinion; I’m really looking forward to it! My final selection will be based on value: what the actual wagering shows close to post time … will probably bet on an overlay, even if she’s not the most likely winner. (That’s the way to make money at the races over the long haul, in my experience.)