breeders cup thread

[bdw0617]

I figured I"d make a breeders cup thread and put some of my predictions here. others are more than welcome to do the same and hopefully we can bounce some ideas off each other.


Friday


Ack Ack Handicap- I know this isn't a breeders cup race, but I really, really, really like Gladding. he's had some time off, and the last race out he was just stretched too far. He is a top tier 8-9F horse.



Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint- I just do not see how secret circle loses htis race. Vexor will get some play because he's from the NYRA circuit and he's a graded stakes winner, but secret circle is on another planet as far as speed/talent. He's about as good as D'funnybone was at this age 2 years ago.


Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
- It's races like this why I make threads like this. I don't have a clue lol. I am quite sure a euro will win this race, but I haven't kept up with euro racing like i usually do, and i refuse to take a 2 to 1 shot if i play this race at all.


Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint - from a talent standpoint, turbulent decent is the best one in the race. If she runs, her absolutely best race, the others are running for 2nd.

But that's obvious. I don't like the extended layoff, i'm not the biggest fan of the trainer or the jockey either (though I do like Pypue more than Flores)

nor am i really all that crazy about her races outside of southern California.


I am probably going to pass this race, but if i had to wager on it at this point i'd probably go with switch. she's better around 1 turn than 2, she has proven to really like this track, as she came in 2nd in the same race last year. Plus, you take out her running lines that don't include blind luck or harve de grace, and she'd be 8/5 in this race.

This is a race where they are a lot of question markes IMHO and virtually anyone could get hot and win.

A horse that really intrigues me is Champagne d'Oro, who I feel was basically mismanaged most of the year running in races that were too long. Some time off, a white hot jockey and getting back to the nuts and bolts of what she likes to do.. i could easily see her winning this race.



Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies - no clue lol. I really liked sister moon and kinda used that as my default pick all year, but now that she's out, blah. I am not a fan of horses who run their eyeballs out on off tracks coming back at short odds (My Miss Aurelia ). Though if it's an off track i'd probably go with her.


Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf- my initial play was Staclia. But, i noticed that she doesn't have the same trainer as she had when she was rolling off all those wins, some point in the year she was switched to the US based chad brown (okay upon further review, she was previously trained by Jean-Claude Rouget in France). I'm not a fan of taking horses away from successful horse / trainer combinations and at what, 7/5 when it's all said and done, i will take a stab in this race with Dubawi Heights, who is running her eyeballs out right now.

the only thing i question is the distance, it might be a tad too far from her, but if she brings her A game she can win this race.

If it's a off track at all throw her out.


Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic What this race could have been huh?

I don't like royal delta, i don't like it's tricky, who wants no part of this distance at all, i don't like ask the moon, i don't like plum pretty who is too pace dependant IMHO.

you know what, love it. i'm going to with the cal bred Ultra Blend. she's been running against some serious race horses in switch, zazu, blind luck and been doing more than holding her own. she's a big underlay and I think she is coming into this race picture perfectly. just that dang flores.

I think you will get 10 to 1, and at 10 to 1 i am all over her.





Saturday



Race 1- whatever you do, do NOT wager on shared heart. she's still being hyped off her off the screen flordia maiden win. she hasn't run close to running back to that. not worth 8/5


Breeders' Cup Marathon - i'm going to go with Eldarfeer for a couple of reasons. First, he likes the track and the distance. Secondly, he hasn't really done antyhing WRONG per say this year, last but not least, there are very few trainers who can get a horse amped for one race like Diane Alvarado can. she doesn't have the horse flesh that some do, but when she has a horse and she wants him to fire for one race, they do. he will bring it.



Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf - i'm not even going to pretend like i have a clue


Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Sprint - I like Amazombie here. horse should not be anywhere near 5 to 1. Big Drama I like as well, but Amazombie is running his eyeballs out this year.

Euro ears could run a really really good one, but his best races IMHO come off a very long lay off which he has not had since earlier this year. Just don't think Jackson Bend is good enough.


I usually throw a few BOMBS on my tickets throughout the day and I would add Apriority to that list. this horse is way better than 30 to 1. hell pound for pound there might not be a horse that has more talent. he's just been "off" for some reason. but he was freakishly good earlier this year. If he somehow gets it together he could win this race.



Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint - one of my fav angles to play is the "who supplemented their horse" angle. owners/trainers usually od not like to waste hundreds of thousands of dollars supplementing horses for races. Hoof it was supplemented for this race.

Also he is a New Zealand bred and IMHO they just do turf sprinters better in NZ/Australia than anywhere else in the world.


I like hoofit and one of my few exotic playes (98% of my wagers are straight win wagers, I don't like getting fancy) is going to be a hooit-Regally Ready exacta straight


Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile - shackleford at 7/2 is a almomst laughable.


this IMHO is the hardest race to handicap on the entire card.

The factor IMHO has the most talent in the race. He has also proven he can take his race track with him so to speak. But this race is going to have a LOT of speed and even though he's faster than these IMHO, I think he gets cooked. Plus his last race was just a clunker.

Caleb's posse - I really like this horse too. But I think he was put in the wrong race. Think he should have been in the sprint. For once it's an easier spot IMHO, and secondly, it's more in his wheel house. think he is one you defiantly have to include in your exotics but I just don't see him getting up for the win


So I' down to 2 horses. Trappe shot, who I just love the heck out of as a racing fan, and Wilburn.

I am going to go with Wilburn for 3 reasons.


First, I think.. right now... at this moment. he's the best 3YO in the country going 2 turns. think they should have ran him in the classic honestly. horse is going to be frighteningly good next year and is going to tear up the handicap division.

Secondly.. I think a mile is further than trap... not even further than he wants to go.. he can run 9F if he has to.. but his BEST races come in sprints.

Last but not least, he (trappe shot) while he ozzes talent and ability.. has a habit of burning money like MC hammer. He just annihilates sub par competition but you put him in a race with real pace and real company and he "almost" gets there. he the blue balls of race horses.

So I'm going with wilburn. he will have NO problem with a mile an d will be running strong at the end to get up IMHO



Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Turf - don't really know. if i had to i would go with mid day.

I tend to not wager on coolmore horses in breeders cup races (4 out of the last 63) .


Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile - this is a 2 and a half horse race, between Creative Cause, union rags and drill is the half horse.

I am a huge creative cause fan. Also keep in mind, both of union rags graded stakes wins, come on off tracks. Also I don't think the competition was all that great (the horse that finished 2nd in both races he won were over 20 to 1). Wheresa Drill (creative causes rival) is pretty damn good in his own right, and he just toyed with him last race.

Creative Cause / Drill exacta., creative cause win


TVG Breeders' Cup Mile - the fan in me wants goldikiova to win this race. and if she is in it in the stretch i'm going to cheer my ass off like i have a million dollar son her.

From a gambling standpoint however, it depends on the track. IF there is no rain, which it should not be, I am going with Gio ponti. Goldy, is not the same mare she was last year IMHO. she's not that far off from last year but she's not where she was last year, and gio ponti is a world class turf miler, they just keep running him longer than a mile, then at this time of the year they seem to remembetr "hey he's pretty good at a mile let's run him in that mile race at keenland" and he wins going away, as he did this year.

he will be running in the end.

If by chance it's an off track I am all over get stormy.



breeders cup classic

I was pretty damn sold on HDG in this racr, until I saw the 10 to 1 morning line on game on dude. Are you freaking serious? Game on dude is one of two horses in the entire field to win a grade 1 race at 10F on dirt this year (him and stay thirstyu)

Even better; on fast dirt tracks this year, game on dude is a perfect 3 for 3. 1 allowance win and 2 grade 1 wins.

he lost the hollywood gold cup (cushion track) came in a 2nd by a nose

he lost the pac classic which is polytrack (basically turf)

he lolst the Charles town classic (a bull ring on a very very sloppy track)


you toss those races out and he's 3 to 1 in this race.


I am not a fan of chantel either honestly, but she has rode him all year basically.

10 to 1, I'm all in. He's one of the very few in this race that will get the distance.
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[wangkw]

You really spent lot of effort there..my hat off for you.

[bdw0617]

man that isn't 1/10th of the effort i put into actually handicapping the races. the bankroll is defiantly coming out this weekend. there are some plays I REALLY like.

[wangkw]

Both Dream Ahead amd Immortal Verse are not in this race..even they are..I see no alarm..I think the real threat is btw
Strong Suit and Gio Ponti..Goldie last 2 games lost narrowly..a rerun of those 2 might turn the table the other way. Prix
de la Foret is a 7f thingy..not her usual cup of tea by training (she won this race last year nonetheless).

4 for 4...Goldie ..add oil..one and done.

[Lisann]

Saw on facebook - Winstar is doing a BC contest again.

[Bill from WA]

Juv. Sprint (Vexor)
Juv Fillies Turf (Elusive Kate)
F&M Sprint (Pomeroy's Pistol)
Juv. Fillies (My Miss Aurelia)
F&M Turf (Nahrain)
Ladies Classic (Plum Pretty)
Marathon (Brigantin)
Juv. Turf (Caspar Netscher)
Sprint (Jackson Bend)
Turf Sprint (Perfect Officer)
Mile (The Factor)
Turf (Sarafina)
Juvenile (Hansen)
Mile (Goldikova)
Classic (So You Think)

[kimberley mine]

Why does everybody keep forgetting Miss Match in the Distaff? I mean, honestly.

[bdw0617]

i considered, strongly actually. but 1. I don't particularity are for her running style, it's going to cost her more races than it will help her win, she is WAY too pace dependent and too dependent on everything going her way. Plus I just think ultra bend is better, and she ran her behind off on dirt last out too.

but she's good no doubt.

this race was really written for zazu and it's a crying shame she can't be here.

[DDT]

Bill

Nice call on My Miss Aurelia, I love Hansen in the Juvie and I think Uncle Mo will have something to say about how the Classic plays out. He is coming into the Classic sharp, and his past performances, even with a narrow loss, look very familiar to last year coming into the Juvie. If he runs anywhere near 1:34 for the first mile he may be able to win the race. I would not bet the farm on him, however, he may be ready to race the legs off them.

DDT

[diomed]

My Miss Aurelia was one of the obvious picks of the day.
Tomorrow, I think Wilburn could romp. He is a horse coming into himself. Call it a gut feeling.
As for tomorrow, I will be very nervous for Goldikova. I really, really, want to see her do it. For the history books. She is awesome.
The Classic? I have no clue but will be rooting for the girl.

[Bill from WA]

I agree that My Miss Aurelius was a pretty obvious choice but I'll take it since my other picks didn't fare too well and I needed the win. I like Plum Pretty but I'm giving Ultra Blend a real shot here (after watching how things have played out today). Good luck to all tomorrow.

Bill

[bdw0617]

As for tomorrow, I will be very nervous for Goldikova. I really, really, want to see her do it. For the history books. She is awesome.

really anxious to see how the turf is labeled tomrorow. Goldy really doses not care for soft ground. I mean she's still world class regardless, but she's not as good.

[diomed]

As for tomorrow, I will be very nervous for Goldikova. I really, really, want to see her do it. For the history books. She is awesome.

really anxious to see how the turf is labeled tomrorow. Goldy really doses not care for soft ground. I mean she's still world class regardless, but she's not as good.

This is true. Now I am really nervous. lol. Damnit.

[wangkw]

Juvenile Sprint Condition (Dirt) -- Secret Circle, 1 length, 1:10.52, Shumoos, Holdin Bullets

F&M Turf -- Perfect Shirl, 3/4, 2:18.62, Nahrain, Misty For Me

Juvenile Fillies (Dirt) -- My Miss Aurelia, 3 lengths, 1:46.00, Grace Hall, Weemissfrankie

Ladies Classic (Dirt) -- Royal Delta, 2&1/2 lengths, 1:50.78, It's Tricky, Pachattack

F&M Sprint (Dirt) -- Musical Romance, 1&1/4 lengths, 1:23.47, Switch, Her Smile

Juvenile Fillies Turf -- Stephanie's Kitten, 1:38.90, 3/4, Stopshoppingmaria, Sweet Cat

[bdw0617]

not David Flores best day. I knew i was going to lose the wager i made o ultra blend when i made it lol. he is thinking way too much out there.