does anyone have a derby horse yet?

[George William Smith]

I was unaware the Algorithms even existed, which goes to show you how brain dead I can be when I entered him into my databank. However, when I saw he was in the Holy Bull I researched his pedigree and found that he was the result of two of my successive breedings on his tail-female line.

I want to be perfectly clear that I was NOT responsible for the Bernardini part of the pedigree. That is 100% on who were involved in deciding who they should breed the mare to.

I was responsible for the breeding of Ava Romance and Avaknowsthecode for one of the nicest clients I have ever worked for. There is an article on page 3 of the Thoroughbred Times Newsletter today about how Algorithms family were hard knocking top Ohio performers.

I believe Algorithms can win the Kentucky Derby because Bernardini will add a lot of stamina to the match, which has been missing from her best foals [Keyed Entry, etc.]. Bernardini is A.P. Indy a stamina influence over Quiet American stamina influence over a Spectacular Bid stamina influence over Northern Dancer. Can't get much better than that for a mare who threw a ton of speed into her foals. I only wish Sonny Fraser were still alive so he could cheer like crazy for Algorithms. But he's probably watching from above.

[BenB]

Alpha would be my first choice

[bdw0617]

the thing about alpha to me and this is just me, is every year KMG does this wishy washy dance right before the derby on the derby tail

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoro ... -to-train/

he never ever has a plan and sticks with it and that rubs me the wrong way. i'm going to do this, no i'm not, i'm going to run here, no i'm going to run there, i'm going to gallop today, no i'm going to gallop 2 days from now. I mean, i understand thintgs happen and these are horses not machines but he takes it to a new level. every year florida derby or wood or blue grass, am i going to train here or train there, it's like make up your mind dude come on.

I like horses whose trainers have plans and stick to them to as much as they can and that is not KGM at least when it comes to the derby, same thing with Solddat last year, same thing with Charitable man, remember charitable man was about to run in about every last derby prep race there was before he settled on the blue grass, and that was probably just because he didn't have a choice at that point.

[diomed]

I am rooting for Take Charge Indy. I love his sire and his Jockey.
After that, Alpha. If Indy can't get the Derby win, I would love for a Berni to win it. Plus he has an awesome name.
Hansen would be next(Tapit-Pulpit-Indy) and then Bodemeister(2nd dam is Parade Queen).

[bdw0617]

diomed and some others who know about bloodlines than i do, in your infinite wisdom which horses are best bred to get the distance?

of the top of my head i would think take charge indy and Dullahan

[Bill from WA]

Stamina Ratings for the 2012 Kentucky Derby

1) Dullahan (A++) (may not have enough tactical speed)
2) I’ll Have Another (A+) (solid play)
3) Alpha (A+) (looking good)
4) Secret Circle (A) (even though his pedigree says yes, his racing performances don’t look promising for the distance)
5) Went The Day Well (A) (looks to be peaking at the right time)
6) Sabercat (A) (good chance)
7) Gemologist (A) (distance shouldn’t be a problem)
8) Daddy Nose Best (A) (a very interesting horse, worth a close look)
9) Wrote (A) (another who won’t be intimidated by the distance)
10) Bodemeister (B) (the distance is right on the top edge of his potential)
11) Daddy Long Legs (B) (see Bodemeister)
12) Union Rags (C) (might take it on class alone, love his daddy)
13) Hansen (C) (I don’t think so, but this guy has a lot of heart)
14) Rousing Sermon (D) (running well, but he would be a surprise)
15) Take Charge Indy (D) ( see above)

[bdw0617]

Stamina Ratings for the 2012 Kentucky Derby

1) Dullahan (A++) (may not have enough tactical speed)
2) I’ll Have Another (A+) (solid play)
3) Alpha (A+) (looking good)
4) Secret Circle (A) (even though his pedigree says yes, his racing performances don’t look promising for the distance)
5) Went The Day Well (A) (looks to be peaking at the right time)
6) Sabercat (A) (good chance)
7) Gemologist (A) (distance shouldn’t be a problem)
Daddy Nose Best (A) (a very interesting horse, worth a close look)
9) Wrote (A) (another who won’t be intimidated by the distance)
10) Bodemeister (B) (the distance is right on the top edge of his potential)
11) Daddy Long Legs (B) (see Bodemeister)
12) Union Rags (C) (might take it on class alone, love his daddy)
13) Hansen (C) (I don’t think so, but this guy has a lot of heart)
14) Rousing Sermon (D) (running well, but he would be a surprise)
15) Take Charge Indy (D) ( see above)

\
wow.

this is actually the first time i looked at any list like this and came out of it with a definitive derby horse. How can you not bet on I'll have another.

I was under the impression that creative cause will be more fit and he may well be better pointed to that race but IHA will run all day long and he's just a good horse.

[Joltman]

I just wish Dullahan had been blocked in his last, maybe got third or something and would be totally off the radar screen. I would have him tight for the big one.

jm

[zinn21]

Joltman wrote:

I just wish Dullahan had been blocked in his last, maybe got third or something and would be totally off the radar screen. I would have him tight for the big one.

He freaked on the synthetic. I have him getting the last eighth in 11 and 3/5. I don't think he will be able to reproduce that kind of turn of foot on a dirt surface. If he does he's Secretariat reincarnate.

[ElPrado]

And he isn't.

[bdw0617]

in the game of handicapping you have to take a stand somewhere and while I like the horse a lot because I really liked mine that bird, he is just going to have to duplicate that form on dirt i don't' care how many times Romans says he can handle it.

[Joltman]

He's way better than Mine That Bird - G1 winner at 2 and 3 - and MTB was dead game in all three legs of the Triple Crown. If MTB can run on the dirt there's no reason this guy can't. He's already run a decent 4th at CD at BCup. He's the real deal - just coming into his own. Even the Score had mult graded wins on dirt (and turf).

As with all closer types, he will need a trip.

jm

[bdw0617]

He's way better than Mine That Bird - G1 winner at 2 and 3 - and MTB was dead game in all three legs of the Triple Crown. If MTB can run on the dirt there's no reason this guy can't. He's already run a decent 4th at CD at BCup. He's the real deal - just coming into his own. Even the Score had mult graded wins on dirt (and turf).

As with all closer types, he will need a trip.

jm

therein lies the rub with DH. Because he really is bred to just gobble up the dirt. His brother loved the dirt.

correct me if i am wrong and i very well could be on here I'm not a dullahan expert, but has he ever run on dirt? did he run in the BC Juve? i was pretty drunk by that time on the card I don't' remember lol.

Because it's easy to say well hey he has only won here but look what happens when he's not at keeneland but all his races that i seem to remember and can find are on turf.

[Bast]

I cannot get too excited about any of the entries.

Hansen has been admirably consistent, but I'm not sure if he can be managed to get 1 1/4 miles.

I have not seen an awesome display or speed or extreme guts out of any of these horses that makes me believe they are special.

[Toccet02]

opinions on Sabercat please . . . I picked him out as a yearling to track as as a virtual purchase.