does anyone have a derby horse yet?

[bdw0617]

Woo hoo!!! I'll have another took it pretty easily. Accelerated in the streatch!

lol i wouldn't go that far. bode fought him off tooth and nail and i thought he was going to re ralley.


I think i'll have another has the best chance at a triple crown since big brown because he will run ALLLLLLLL day long. i also doubt they bring BM back in the preakness and if BM isn't back i don't see anyone catching him

[bdw0617]

Stamina Ratings for the 2012 Kentucky Derby

1) Dullahan (A++) (may not have enough tactical speed)
2) I’ll Have Another (A+) (solid play)
3) Alpha (A+) (looking good)
4) Secret Circle (A) (even though his pedigree says yes, his racing performances don’t look promising for the distance)
5) Went The Day Well (A) (looks to be peaking at the right time)
6) Sabercat (A) (good chance)
7) Gemologist (A) (distance shouldn’t be a problem)
Daddy Nose Best (A) (a very interesting horse, worth a close look)
9) Wrote (A) (another who won’t be intimidated by the distance)
10) Bodemeister (B) (the distance is right on the top edge of his potential)
11) Daddy Long Legs (B) (see Bodemeister)
12) Union Rags (C) (might take it on class alone, love his daddy)
13) Hansen (C) (I don’t think so, but this guy has a lot of heart)
14) Rousing Sermon (D) (running well, but he would be a surprise)
15) Take Charge Indy (D) ( see above)

\
wow.

this is actually the first time i looked at any list like this and came out of it with a definitive derby horse. How can you not bet on I'll have another.

I was under the impression that creative cause will be more fit and he may well be better pointed to that race but IHA will run all day long and he's just a good horse.

lolololololol. should have listened to myself.

[ElPrado]

I boxed the tri.
I had Bode
I'll Have Another
Dullahan

[Kari]

Poo. Good thing I don't bet. My endorsement seems to be the kiss of death.

[ratherrapid]

Nice job Bill from Washington.

[bdw0617]

now for the real question.

who finished last?

[Bast]

now for the real question.

who finished last?

Daddy Long Legs

[Bill from WA]

Went The Day Well was really coming at the end. I underestimated Bodemeister's stamina. He ran with a lot of heart. I bet Went The Day Well, but had a small saver on I'll Have Another (because of his MCM score). Missed the super by leaving Bodemeister out. Dullahan ran well. I was surprised that Bodemeister cleared so easily. The next two legs are going to be entertaining.

Bill

[Shammy Davis]

Bill previously posted:

1. Daddy Long Legs, Colm O’Donoghue, 30-1 (B)
2. Optimizer, Jon Court, 50-1 (B)
3. Take Charge Indy, Calvin Borel, 15-1 (D)
4. Union Rags, Julien Leparoux, 9-2 (C) *
5. Dullahan, Kent Desormeaux, 8-1 (A++) *
6. Bodiemeister, Mike Smith, 4-1 (B)
7. Rousing Sermon, Jose Lezcano, 50-1 (D)
8. Creative Cause, Joel Rosario, 12-1 (B)
9. Trinniberg, Willie Martinez, 50-1 (D)
10. Daddy Nose Best, Garrett Gomez, 15-1 (A)
11. Alpha, Rajiv Maragh, 15-1 (A+)
12. Prospective, Luis Contreras, 30-1 (B)
13. Went the Day Well, John Velazquez, 20-1 (A) **
14. Hansen, Ramon Dominguez, 10-1 (C)
15. Gemologist, Javier Castellano, 6-1 (A) *
16. El Padrino, Rafael Bejarano, 20-1 (C)
17. Done Talking, Sheldon Russell, 50-1 (D)
18. Sabercat, Corey Nakatani, 30-1 (A) *
19. I’ll Have Another, Martin Gutierrez, 12-1 (A+) *
20. Liaison, Martin Garcia, 50-1 (A)
AE – My Adonis, Elvis Trujillo, x-1 (B+)

After the PP draw, I am adding Union Rags (been working like a monster) and Gemologist (hard to toss an undefeated horse) into my exotics mix, along with previous choices, I'll Have Another, Alpha, Dullahan, Sabercat and Went The Day Well. Staying with a win bet on Went The Day Well as my top pick. (I'll Have Another just might come back to haunt me).

Bill

Comparing this to the order of finish, this is really good work and a wonderful reference. You really had some insight into the race. Thanks.

[jagger]

Well, I took a little heat for picking Daddy Long Legs to finish last...but....did anybody else pick him for last besides me? What do I win? I played quite a few exactas and did hit on one of them with Bodemeister and I'll Have Another and won $300+ or something and invested 60+ or something. Looked like if Bodemeister could have been rated a little he might have won. Did he really need a 45+ half? Last half was 52ish. They will never learn. NEGATIVE SPLITS boys and girls!!!!

[bdw0617]

Well, I took a little heat for picking Daddy Long Legs to finish last...but....did anybody else pick him for last besides me? What do I win? I played quite a few exactas and did hit on one of them with Bodemeister and I'll Have Another and won $300+ or something and invested 60+ or something. Looked like if Bodemeister could have been rated a little he might have won. Did he really need a 45+ half? Last half was 52ish. They will never learn. NEGATIVE SPLITS boys and girls!!!!

the only reason and i mean the ONLY reason BM lost this race was because a 50 to 1 shot's owners got derby fever. if T'berg is not in the race BM wins by 3 or 4 lengths

mike smith could not have played that race any better than he did. in retrospect we knew BM liked to have the lead but i don't' think anyone here imagined he had THAT type of natural speed. if you have that type of natural speed you put pressure on everyone else in the race to do things and make decisions they don't want to make. If you have a horse that can go 45-1:09 type and keep going you do that 10 out of 10 times. why take away a horses best weapon? he cruses faster than other grade 1 caliber horses run. he made hansen and tburg who is a legit grade 1 sprinter look slow.

he ran hansen, take chrage indy, Gemologist into the ground and shook loose. that's 1 grade 1 winner, one undefeated grade 1 winner and another 2YO eclipse winning breeders cup winning grade 1 winner.
that was seriously the most impressive lost i had ever seen in my life. my god that's a race horse.

he played it right though. keep in mind he had enough in the tank to hold off 18 other horses and the horse that beat him is bred to run all day long and came out of the best derby prep race of them all this year. it's the hard spun deal all over again, after the derby larry jones tried to play around with trying to rate him or what not and after the kings bishop he said you know what, screw it lol. he's fast and i'm not going to try to make him not fast. and even though he lost the breeders cup classic that year he still ran his eyeballs out and lost to a horse he wasn't going to beat under any circumstances whatsoever that day.


i have been thinking about this for a little bit and i think what is interesting is, now that you know what you know about BM.. how do you beat him? the preakness isn't 10F and i doubt T berg or any other hopeless long shots are going to be pressing the pace. what do you do if you are hansen? you already shown you can't run with him. he showed you what he can do in the arknasas derby if you leave him alone. what do you do in the belmont when he IS going to be the controlling speed? and hell he out ran the rabbit today lol. your only chance of beating him is hoping he is soft by the time they hit the stretch and if his pedigree is any indication, they haven't gotten anywhere near the bottom of him.

he's going to be scary good before it's all said and done.

[bdw0617]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... for-x-rays

[zinn21]

Bill from Wa wrote:

I will be taking a shot with last years winning connections and play Went The Day Well. He's coming up to the race beautifully

Bill your horse was flying at the end. Bet he will be tough in the Belmont..

[zinn21]

Reading through one of the thread, Jagger picked Daddy Long Legs to run dead last and he did..

[Sailor Kenshin]

I mentioned liking Dullahan.... or did I? At least he made it to the board.