The Preakness

zinn21 · Postby **zinn21** » Sun May 13, 2012 2:07 pm

Ordinarily I would throw out the Meister after running so hard in the Derby but this horse has defied the bounce theory from day one. That's why I picked him in the Derby with such a minimal foundation. I have never ever seen a horse progress in such a short time without bouncing like he did. He is undoubtedly a freak IMHO.. It would be handicapping heresy for me to get off the horse now so I will stick with Bodemeister in the Preakness..

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Sun May 13, 2012 2:18 pm

zinn21 wrote:Ordinarily I would throw out the Meister after running so hard in the Derby but this horse has defied the bounce theory from day one. That's why I picked him in the Derby with such a minimal foundation. I have never ever seen a horse progress in such a short time without bouncing like he did. He is undoubtedly a freak IMHO.. It would be handicapping heresy for me to get off the horse now so I will stick with Bodemeister in the Preakness..

curlin. that's about all i can think of. by curlin's 5th start he had won a jewel in the triple crown

actually curlin and BM's path are irrely similar

Aug27 · Postby **Aug27** » Mon May 14, 2012 5:04 am

Big Brown won the Florida Derby in his 3rd lifetime start, the Kty Derby in his 4th and the Preakness in his 5th. Bodemeister is more reminiscent of Big Brown than Curlin, in my opinion. (Particularly given his running style.)

The question is: can we apply traditional time-tested handicapping theories to him (Bodemesiter, that is) or is he a freak (like Big Brown or Spend A Buck) that defies normal logic?

The even-paced grinder with distance breeding is the preferred style for the Belmont. A horse like Alpha or Liaison, for example.

I hope Gutierrez gets some Belmont experience before the big race, so he doesn't pull another Borel and move at the wrong time. That huge course is misleading to many.

TJ · Postby TJ » Mon May 14, 2012 2:26 pm

Bill from WA wrote:I think that Hierro has the best chance of the new shooters to be in the mix, but I don't think he'll win. Worth considering for the exotics (IMO).

Hi Bill,
Hierro isn't going to run in the Preakness. Looks like everyone who wants to run in the Preakness will get in....unless some off the wall surprise entries show up on entry day. Currently 11 are confirmed and 2 are on the fence. Below is an updated list of starter's expected to be entered for the Preakness this Wednesday. Wednesday evening at 6PM they will draw for post positions. TJ

Bodemeister (Mike Smith)
Cozzetti (Jose Lezcano)
Creative Cause (Joel Rosario)
Guyana Star Dweej (Alex Solis)
I’ll Have Another (Mario Gutierrez)
Optimizer (Corey Nakatani)
Pretension (Javier Santiago)
Teeth of the Dog (Joe Bravo)
Tiger Walk (Kent Desormeaux)
Went the Day Well (John Velazquez)
Zetterholm (Junior Alvarado)
Daddy Nose Best and Liason are possible.

Bill from WA · Postby **Bill from WA** » Mon May 14, 2012 3:58 pm

Unless Teeth of the Dog (has a lot of speed influences in his pedigree profile) or The Lumber Guy go with him on the front end, Bodemeister looks to control the pace, and really looks tough in this spot. I still like Went the Day Well and I'll Have Another to have the best chance late, with Creative Cause having a realistic shot. Of the new players, Cozzetti, Tiger Walk and Zetterholm have the best stamina pedigrees but may not be good enough. Cozzetti (with any improvement) does intrigue me though. I'll wait until PP draw to make my final choices.

Bill

ElPrado · Postby **ElPrado** » Mon May 14, 2012 5:31 pm

The Lumber Guy ran Saturday in the Peter Pan. He didn't exactly do well.

TJ · Postby TJ » Mon May 14, 2012 5:41 pm

Bill from WA wrote:Unless Teeth of the Dog (has a lot of speed influences in his pedigree profile) or The Lumber Guy go with him on the front end, Bodemeister looks to control the pace, and really looks tough in this spot. I still like Went the Day Well and I'll Have Another to have the best chance late, with Creative Cause having a realistic shot. Of the new players, Cozzetti, Tiger Walk and Zetterholm have the best stamina pedigrees but may not be good enough. Cozzetti (with any improvement) does intrigue me though. I'll wait until PP draw to make my final choices.

Bill

Hi Bill,
I think Went The Day Well may show surprisingly better speed in the Preakness. His number's went way up after the B's were added and he really couldn't show us how much early speed the B's may have added because he was in trouble most of the time. There's no doubt he's a better horse now then before the Derby...should be interesting to see what happen's with clear sailing....hopefully? TJ

Bill from WA · Postby **Bill from WA** » Mon May 14, 2012 6:39 pm

If The Lumber Guy did run (doesn't look like he will), he might have had an effect on the pace, but I don't think he would be around when the real running started. If there is no one to run with Bodemeister, it might be all over early. I look for a big effort from Went The Day Well. Whether he can reel BM in late remains to be seen. Depends totally on the pace scenario and how it unfolds.

Bill from WA · Postby **Bill from WA** » Mon May 14, 2012 6:52 pm

Hi TJ

I agree with you about Went The Day Well being closer to the pace this time. He was compromised early in the Derby. I expect a cleaner trip this time. I thought he would be mid-pack in the Derby but he had some bad luck at the start. He did finish very, very well. Its going to be very interesting to see how the race evolves.

Bill

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Tue May 15, 2012 1:03 am

as if he needed any help whatseover, this race could not have possibly set up any better for BM. there is NO speed.

Joltman · Postby **Joltman** » Tue May 15, 2012 6:47 am

Don't underestimate the effect of the early pace in the Derby on Bodimeister. Even though he seemingly came out of it well, the Derby will have drawn down some deep reserves for him to continue on to the mile and a quarter. Good thing the Preakness is a siixteenth shorter though I wouldn't be surprised if he gives it up at the eighth pole.

jm

TJ · Postby TJ » Tue May 15, 2012 8:18 am

Bill from WA wrote:Hi TJ

I agree with you about Went The Day Well being closer to the pace this time. He was compromised early in the Derby. I expect a cleaner trip this time. I thought he would be mid-pack in the Derby but he had some bad luck at the start. He did finish very, very well. Its going to be very interesting to see how the race evolves.

Bill

Hi Bill,
Agreed...and looking forward to the draw tomorrow. Pretension's status is being decided today. If he opts out, there will be quite a few slots available for the Preakness. Due to the lack of speed in the tentative Preakness entries.....it leaves Bodemeister with almost an unfair advantage. If I had one in there I thought had a legitimate chance... I'd have to pull a Frank Whiteley on 'em and enter a rabbit to keep Bodemeister company on the lead:>) Honestly though, I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen....I'll bet Ricky Dutrow is all ready trying to figure out who to put in there:>) TJ
The ultimate "Rabbit":
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8frxLao1bM

TJ · Postby TJ » Tue May 15, 2012 12:04 pm

Daddy Nose Best will be added to the Preakness lineup. Optimizer also confirmed his intent to run today. With a field of twelve confirmed to run, still leaves room for 2 wild card entries? TJ

Bodemeister (Mike Smith)
Cozzetti (Jose Lezcano)
Creative Cause (Joel Rosario)
Guyana Star Dweej (Alex Solis)
I’ll Have Another (Mario Gutierrez)
Optimizer (Corey Nakatani)
Pretension (Javier Santiago)
Teeth of the Dog (Joe Bravo)
Tiger Walk (Kent Desormeaux)
Went the Day Well (John Velazquez)
Zetterholm (Junior Alvarado)
Daddy Nose Best (Julian Leparoux)

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Tue May 15, 2012 10:48 pm

did anyone else notice the little musical jockey chairs there? GG off daddy nose best, and JL gets on him. i wonder what happened there if anything.

TJ · Postby TJ » Wed May 16, 2012 6:24 am

bdw0617 wrote:did anyone else notice the little musical jockey chairs there? GG off daddy nose best, and JL gets on him. i wonder what happened there if anything.

Hi bdw,
What happened was JL ended up getting the mount on Union Rags while he was in Florida. He rides a lot of horses for Asmussen and of the 10 starts Daddy Nose Best had, JL rode him 8 times, winning 4, second once and third once. It's obvious he liked this horse and rides him very well, but if you had your choice in the Derby....who would you take between the two:>) What's more impressive than how well he rode him is that he would follow this horse anywhere....so he must of had a high opinion of him. In those 8 starts on board Daddy, he rode him at Saratoga, Woodbine, CD, Santa Anita, Golden Gate and Sunland Park. When Asmussen decided to run Daddy in the Preakness, going back to JL was an easy decision.
I wouldn't be surprised to see this play out full circle....JL returns to Daddy for the Preakness and most likely the Belmont and Castellano goes back to Union Rags for the Belmont.....Castellano's agent (Matt Muzicar SP) has been knocking on Matz' door trying to get back on board. TJ