Castellano didn't do all that well on Union Rags either, did he? He may have won a few but as I recall, couldn't seem to keep him running straight, which probably cost him the Breeder's Cup race.
Seems Matz can't get lucky with Jockey's.
The Preakness
Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster
Matchemforever wrote:Castellano didn't do all that well on Union Rags either, did he? He may have won a few but as I recall, couldn't seem to keep him running straight, which probably cost him the Breeder's Cup race.
Seems Matz can't get lucky with Jockey's.
Hi Match,
Rags has been doing that since he was a baby...he took some licks in a couple of those 2YO races too. Yet he still won 3 out of 4 of his starts under Castellano's urging. He seems to have outgrown that this year and I think Castellano is just a better fit for the horse. Guess we'll find out come the Belmont. TJ
-
Bill from WA
- Breeder's Cup Contender
- Posts: 1936
- Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:20 am
- Location: Mountlake Terrace, WA
2012 Preakness
1) Tiger Walk (Desormeaux) (30-1) Stamina rating (A) Switch to Desormeaux may help. Good pedigree for the distance. Maybe a cut below the better runners entered. Possibility for the exotics.
2) Teeth of the Dog (Joe Bravo) (15-1) Stamina rating (D) Fine jockey, good trainer. Might be the only horse in the race (based on pedigree) to challenge Bodemeister for the lead. I expect him to fade in deep stretch.
3) Pretension (Javier Santiago) (30-1) Stamina rating (C) Probably will finish mid pack.
4) Zetterholm (Junior Alvarado) (20-1) Stamina rating (A) Expect a strong showing. Exotics possibility.
5) Went The Day Well (John Velazquez) (6-1) Stamina rating (A) He should finish in the top three. I expect him to be closer to the pace this time. Will be flying in the stretch, but may run out of ground again, especially if no one goes with Bodemeister.
6) Creative Cause (Joel Rosario) (6-1) Stamina rating (B) His stamina is well beyond what the pedigree indicates. A very tough and consistent runner. Hard to leave out of the exotics.
7) Bodemeister (Mike Smith) (8/5) Stamina rating (B) This race is his to lose. If he doesn’t “bounce” he’ll be tough to beat. If Teeth of the Dog runs to the speed influences in his pedigree, he may soften Bodemeister up enough to give the closers a chance.
8) Daddy Nose Best (Julien Leparoux) (12-1) Stamina rating (A) This is a very intriguing horse. Excellent pedigree for the Preakness distance. I expect a cleaner trip this time, and I think he will be in the mix at the end. Definite exotics play.
9) I’ll Have Another (Mario Gutierrez) (5-2) Stamina rating (A+) He will be making another run at Bodemeister, and has a real chance to get there (depending on the pace scenario)
10) Optimizer (Corey Nakatani) (30-1) Stamina rating (B) He would be a surprise to me.
11) Cozzetti (Jose Lexzcano) (30-1) Stamina rating (A) Cozzetti has a turf pedigree, but has run well on the dirt, and he has trained very well. I really think he has a shot at hitting the board at a price. Very interesting possibility.
I’m going with Went the Day Well again to win (if I get 6-1 or higher). I’ll bet a superfecta box with Bodemeister, Went The Day Well, I’ll Have Another, and Daddy Nose Best, plus other superfecta plays with those four on top with Cozzetti, Zetterholm, Tiger Walk and Creative Cause. I may put a win bet on Daddy Nose Best if I get 15-1 or more (in addition to the other wagers).
Bill
1) Tiger Walk (Desormeaux) (30-1) Stamina rating (A) Switch to Desormeaux may help. Good pedigree for the distance. Maybe a cut below the better runners entered. Possibility for the exotics.
2) Teeth of the Dog (Joe Bravo) (15-1) Stamina rating (D) Fine jockey, good trainer. Might be the only horse in the race (based on pedigree) to challenge Bodemeister for the lead. I expect him to fade in deep stretch.
3) Pretension (Javier Santiago) (30-1) Stamina rating (C) Probably will finish mid pack.
4) Zetterholm (Junior Alvarado) (20-1) Stamina rating (A) Expect a strong showing. Exotics possibility.
5) Went The Day Well (John Velazquez) (6-1) Stamina rating (A) He should finish in the top three. I expect him to be closer to the pace this time. Will be flying in the stretch, but may run out of ground again, especially if no one goes with Bodemeister.
6) Creative Cause (Joel Rosario) (6-1) Stamina rating (B) His stamina is well beyond what the pedigree indicates. A very tough and consistent runner. Hard to leave out of the exotics.
7) Bodemeister (Mike Smith) (8/5) Stamina rating (B) This race is his to lose. If he doesn’t “bounce” he’ll be tough to beat. If Teeth of the Dog runs to the speed influences in his pedigree, he may soften Bodemeister up enough to give the closers a chance.
8) Daddy Nose Best (Julien Leparoux) (12-1) Stamina rating (A) This is a very intriguing horse. Excellent pedigree for the Preakness distance. I expect a cleaner trip this time, and I think he will be in the mix at the end. Definite exotics play.
9) I’ll Have Another (Mario Gutierrez) (5-2) Stamina rating (A+) He will be making another run at Bodemeister, and has a real chance to get there (depending on the pace scenario)
10) Optimizer (Corey Nakatani) (30-1) Stamina rating (B) He would be a surprise to me.
11) Cozzetti (Jose Lexzcano) (30-1) Stamina rating (A) Cozzetti has a turf pedigree, but has run well on the dirt, and he has trained very well. I really think he has a shot at hitting the board at a price. Very interesting possibility.
I’m going with Went the Day Well again to win (if I get 6-1 or higher). I’ll bet a superfecta box with Bodemeister, Went The Day Well, I’ll Have Another, and Daddy Nose Best, plus other superfecta plays with those four on top with Cozzetti, Zetterholm, Tiger Walk and Creative Cause. I may put a win bet on Daddy Nose Best if I get 15-1 or more (in addition to the other wagers).
Bill
Last edited by Bill from WA on Fri May 18, 2012 11:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.
Langston Hughes
Langston Hughes
-
bdw0617
- Darley line
- Posts: 9206
- Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 10:19 pm
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
- Contact:
just one time i would like for a trainer to come out before a big race and say "yeah.. you know.. i really don't like what i am seeing out here. i wouldn't bet on him"
every horse is training great. every horse could not be going better. it's to the point that it's not even news anymore.
every horse is training great. every horse could not be going better. it's to the point that it's not even news anymore.
"When the solution is simple, God is answering.”
- Einstein
- Einstein
bdw0617 wrote:just one time i would like for a trainer to come out before a big race and say "yeah.. you know.. i really don't like what i am seeing out here. i wouldn't bet on him"
every horse is training great. every horse could not be going better. it's to the point that it's not even news anymore.
i think the media gets there spin talent from horse trainers... 
A great man cannot help himself," "He can see things that other men cannot see themselves, and his greatness lies in doing whatever is necessary to make his vision real
-
ratherrapid
- Grade II Winner
- Posts: 1276
- Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 3:04 pm
- Location: kansas city, missouri
- Contact:
bdw0617 wrote:just one time i would like for a trainer to come out before a big race and say "yeah.. you know.. i really don't like what i am seeing out here. i wouldn't bet on him"
every horse is training great. every horse could not be going better. it's to the point that it's not even news anymore.
good point!
my pick is IHA, for whatever little that's worth.
Guess it's time to take a stand in the Preakness. It's a bit long winded and it made sense when I wrote it but that's what makes handicapping so challenging. We look at the form and see black and white...we try to make sense of it all.....the problem is, the horses are flesh and blood and there's nothing in black and white that equates to that.
1st Bodemeister...OK, you don't have to be a rocket scientist to come up with him, but I see two ways this can play out. In my eyes he bounced in the Derby according to Beyer, Thoro-Graph and Performance Figures. If that was a legitimate bounce he should return to his amazing effort 2 back. The other scenario is he didn't bounce and he is ready to regress completely off his short, grueling but amazing campaign he made to get him where he is now?
2nd Creative Cause...I would have made this horse a bet today if he stayed on the east coast....four plane trips cross country in a less than 3 weeks may take it's toll on this horse. Yet he is on a solid upswing in figures and considering he didn't train all too well at CD and took a chunk of his hoof off when he ripped his shoe off on the flight to the Derby is enough to persuade me not to throw him out. He has all ready beaten Bodemeister and came very close to beating I'll Have Another.
3rd Teeth of The Dog...this horse, although Michael Matz wasn't pleased with the owner entering him in today's Preakness is on a giant upswing. It's possible he can bounce to the moon off his last effort...but I think he had a better rest than the Derby horses who come back in two weeks. So I will use him as a long shot in here.
4th Went The Day Well is improving in each successive race he's run. The blinker's moved him up considerably and could be closer. Motion is high on the way he's training and the man knows a thing or two about a horse.
5th I'll Have Another...this poor guy must feel like Rodney Dangerfield...I was going to put him much closer, but didn't like O'Neill saying he will keep Bode in his sights during the running. If he gets in it too early he may just call it a day. One because it may take the horse out of his comfort zone too soon and two....he's shown some spacing between his races....considering he won his last three and all hard fought contests, with the two week turn around I'm afraid he might throw in a clunker?
Two price plays for the exotics: Daddy Knows Best...He's another who has steadily improved his numbers in every race but the Derby...it was too bad to believe. He reunites with Julien L who rode this horse better than anyone. Tiger Walk with B's and Ramon Dominguez. Good luck to all with their wager's...but especially to our equine athletes. TJ
1st Bodemeister...OK, you don't have to be a rocket scientist to come up with him, but I see two ways this can play out. In my eyes he bounced in the Derby according to Beyer, Thoro-Graph and Performance Figures. If that was a legitimate bounce he should return to his amazing effort 2 back. The other scenario is he didn't bounce and he is ready to regress completely off his short, grueling but amazing campaign he made to get him where he is now?
2nd Creative Cause...I would have made this horse a bet today if he stayed on the east coast....four plane trips cross country in a less than 3 weeks may take it's toll on this horse. Yet he is on a solid upswing in figures and considering he didn't train all too well at CD and took a chunk of his hoof off when he ripped his shoe off on the flight to the Derby is enough to persuade me not to throw him out. He has all ready beaten Bodemeister and came very close to beating I'll Have Another.
3rd Teeth of The Dog...this horse, although Michael Matz wasn't pleased with the owner entering him in today's Preakness is on a giant upswing. It's possible he can bounce to the moon off his last effort...but I think he had a better rest than the Derby horses who come back in two weeks. So I will use him as a long shot in here.
4th Went The Day Well is improving in each successive race he's run. The blinker's moved him up considerably and could be closer. Motion is high on the way he's training and the man knows a thing or two about a horse.
5th I'll Have Another...this poor guy must feel like Rodney Dangerfield...I was going to put him much closer, but didn't like O'Neill saying he will keep Bode in his sights during the running. If he gets in it too early he may just call it a day. One because it may take the horse out of his comfort zone too soon and two....he's shown some spacing between his races....considering he won his last three and all hard fought contests, with the two week turn around I'm afraid he might throw in a clunker?
Two price plays for the exotics: Daddy Knows Best...He's another who has steadily improved his numbers in every race but the Derby...it was too bad to believe. He reunites with Julien L who rode this horse better than anyone. Tiger Walk with B's and Ramon Dominguez. Good luck to all with their wager's...but especially to our equine athletes. TJ
Last edited by TJ on Sat May 19, 2012 4:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
-
Whirlaway
- Grade III Winner
- Posts: 1146
- Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2006 9:27 pm
- Location: Home of the brave.
Should be a fun race to watch.
Here is what I've read on the bounce from the book, Betting Thoroughbreds for the 21st Century by Steve Davidowitz . . . It is the esteemed New Yourk handicapper Len Ragozin's contention that horses tend to "bounce," or drop off in form, as a consequence of two interrelated factors:
* When they have exerted "an effort" that taxes their physical limitations.
* When they are brought back to the races too soon for full recovery to occur.
I thought Bode was gonna bounce in the Derby - he didn't, so I've gotta think he is more likely to bounce now than he did then. Were he a horse bred some 50 years ago, I'd lean the other way, but with these swifty types and his last two being fully extended, I've got to lean against him in this one.
I'll Have Another shows perfect scheduling with fresh legs; gets a drop in distance and a drop in class; shows tactical speed; goes from post position 19 to post position 9; shows text book works for a Triple Crown winner; won the Santa Anita Derby with just a few pops of the whip - I think he won that race in what amounted to more or less a hand ride; shows the same pattern in the Kentucky Derby - gets the perfect trip and felt the whip only slightly, a couple of times inside the 3/16ths and twice more inside the last furlong, the remaining distance it was a hand ride; professional job in his last two by the young jockey not overextending the horse; I would like to have seen a work, but I'm no trainer and I figure the horse is dead fit. I think he wins romping with the jockey easing him in the final furlong. This horse may be just what a dying sport needs in this its most perilous time.
I'll Have Another
Creative Cause
Bodemeister
Best of racing luck.
Here is what I've read on the bounce from the book, Betting Thoroughbreds for the 21st Century by Steve Davidowitz . . . It is the esteemed New Yourk handicapper Len Ragozin's contention that horses tend to "bounce," or drop off in form, as a consequence of two interrelated factors:
* When they have exerted "an effort" that taxes their physical limitations.
* When they are brought back to the races too soon for full recovery to occur.
I thought Bode was gonna bounce in the Derby - he didn't, so I've gotta think he is more likely to bounce now than he did then. Were he a horse bred some 50 years ago, I'd lean the other way, but with these swifty types and his last two being fully extended, I've got to lean against him in this one.
I'll Have Another shows perfect scheduling with fresh legs; gets a drop in distance and a drop in class; shows tactical speed; goes from post position 19 to post position 9; shows text book works for a Triple Crown winner; won the Santa Anita Derby with just a few pops of the whip - I think he won that race in what amounted to more or less a hand ride; shows the same pattern in the Kentucky Derby - gets the perfect trip and felt the whip only slightly, a couple of times inside the 3/16ths and twice more inside the last furlong, the remaining distance it was a hand ride; professional job in his last two by the young jockey not overextending the horse; I would like to have seen a work, but I'm no trainer and I figure the horse is dead fit. I think he wins romping with the jockey easing him in the final furlong. This horse may be just what a dying sport needs in this its most perilous time.
I'll Have Another
Creative Cause
Bodemeister
Best of racing luck.
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
Wow!
I was thinking what Whirlaway typed
I'll Have Another (triple crown, I hope!)
I am prepared to eat crow if Bodemeister wins, but I have serious concerns about him. At a gallop, he's shaking like a jackhammer. I know he looks better at a faster pace, but that motion has to put a strain on him in training.
I was thinking what Whirlaway typed
I'll Have Another (triple crown, I hope!)
I am prepared to eat crow if Bodemeister wins, but I have serious concerns about him. At a gallop, he's shaking like a jackhammer. I know he looks better at a faster pace, but that motion has to put a strain on him in training.
-
Bill from WA
- Breeder's Cup Contender
- Posts: 1936
- Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:20 am
- Location: Mountlake Terrace, WA
Even though I'm not getting the odds that I wanted, my bets are down. $200 win on Went the Day Well. $50 win on Daddy Nose Best. $1 superfecta box ($120) on 5-6-7-8-9. Ten cent superfecta box ($36) on 5-6-7-8-9-11. Good luck to all.
Bill
Bill
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.
Langston Hughes
Langston Hughes
TJ wrote:Bill from WA wrote:Even though I'm not getting the odds that I wanted, my bets are down. $200 win on Went the Day Well. $50 win on Daddy Nose Best. $1 superfecta box ($120) on 5-6-7-8-9. Ten cent superfecta box ($36) on 5-6-7-8-9-11. Good luck to all.
Bill
Hi Bill,
Good Luck to you as well. TJ
-
karenkarenn
- Breeder's Cup Winner
- Posts: 2145
- Joined: Sun Aug 03, 2008 3:01 pm
- Location: Planet Earth
- Contact:
Went the day well -- my high school is giving way too much glory to Doug O Neil and I am sick of it. Then they complain about the drugs... its like 
Bodemeister doesn't look good at all. Maybe Pretension first or second.. Hell I'll bet on Pretension too. Cozetti looks good too him in third.
Went the Day well 1st or second
Pretension 1st or second
and Cozetti third
Bodemeister doesn't look good at all. Maybe Pretension first or second.. Hell I'll bet on Pretension too. Cozetti looks good too him in third. Went the Day well 1st or second
Pretension 1st or second
and Cozetti third
Last edited by karenkarenn on Sat May 19, 2012 3:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.