The 144th Running of The Belmont Stakes

TJ · Postby TJ » Wed Jun 06, 2012 8:34 am

In post position order and morning line odds. TJ

1. Street Life...........C. Brown..................J. Lezcano 12-1

2. Unstoppable U.....K. McPeek................J. Alvarado 30-1

3. Union Rags..........M. Matz....................J. Velazquez 6-1

4. Atigun................K. McPeek..................J. Leparoux 30-1

5. Dullahan............D. Romans.................J. Castellano 5-1

6. Ravelo's Boy........M. Azpurua..............A. Solis 50-1

7. Five Sixteen.......D. Schettino..............R. Napravnik 50-1

8. Guyana Star Dweej...D. Shivmangal....K.Desormeaux 50-1

9. Paynter................B. Baffert.................M. Smith 8-1

10.Optimizer.............D. Lukas.................C. Nakatani 20-1

11. I'll Have Another....D. O'Neill................M. Gutierrez 3-5

12. My Adonis.............K. Breen................R. Dominguez 20-1

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Wed Jun 06, 2012 8:51 am

all the horses that i thought could beat him are not in the race. IHA will be tough. but i can't take 3/5. would bet on paynter before I bet on IHA

Bill from WA · Postby **Bill from WA** » Wed Jun 06, 2012 1:00 pm

I think the only way to make any money on this race is via the exotics. I will be bunching I'll Have Another with Union Rags, Paynter, Five Sixteen, Dullahan, and Street Life. I have a gut feeling that Union Rags is sitting on a big effort. I look for Paynter and Five Sixteen to make an impact and be in the mix at the end, but its all up to I'll Have Another to win or lose. If he runs his best race we'll have a Triple Crown winner.
Good luck to all the entrants. Come home safe.

Bill

TJ · Postby TJ » Wed Jun 06, 2012 4:41 pm

Below are my choices for the Belmont Stakes...

1st. Paynter...This horse is very intriguing...Bob Baffert thought this is his best 3YO and after watching his SA Derby he can be the spoiler here. He bobbled at the start and never got near the lead in the 1 1/8th mile SA Derby...he took his time getting himself together then put in a good 4 wide run through the lane to be beaten 3 3/4 lengths against I'll Have Another and Creative Cause. This with only one 5 1/2 furlong race lifetime under his belt. His race of choice is on or near the lead and his last beyer at Pimlico was a 106 under a hand ride on Preakness Day. I'll have another received a 109 driving to the wire in his Preakness victory.

2nd. Union Rags...his last chance to atone for his poor (or was it unlucky) 3YO campaign....he will have no excuse once around the two big sweeping turns of this oval with JV in the bike.

3rd. I'll Have Another...If he can pull this off after 4 tough wins in a row...he's a throwback to the golden era and a well deserved TC Champion.

4th. Street Life...this guy comes out of the Peter Pan....quite a few spoiler's made there way from that race into the Belmont Stakes winner's circle.

My Adonis and Optimizer under for a big tri or super:>) TJ

Bill from WA · Postby **Bill from WA** » Wed Jun 06, 2012 4:52 pm

Hi TJ

Excellent analysis. I am hoping for a triple crown winner, but I can certainly see your scenario unfolding. Unstoppable U is another that may show up in the exotics. My choice for the biggest surprise is Five Sixteen.

Bill

ratherrapid · Postby **ratherrapid** » Wed Jun 06, 2012 5:00 pm

TJ wrote:Below are my choices for the Belmont Stakes...

1st. Paynter...This horse is very intriguing...Bob Baffert thought this is his best 3YO and after watching his SA Derby he can be the spoiler here. He bobbled at the start and never got near the lead in the 1 1/8th mile SA Derby...he took his time getting himself together then put in a good 4 wide run through the lane to be beaten 3 3/4 lengths against I'll Have Another and Creative Cause. This with only one 5 1/2 furlong race lifetime under his belt. His race of choice is on or near the lead and his last beyer at Pimlico was a 106 under a hand ride on Preakness Day. I'll have another received a 109 driving to the wire in his Preakness victory.

2nd. Union Rags...his last chance to atone for his poor (or was it unlucky) 3YO campaign....he will have no excuse once around the two big sweeping turns of this oval with JV in the bike.

3rd. I'll Have Another...If he can pull this off after 4 tough wins in a row...he's a throwback to the golden era and a well deserved TC Champion.

4th. Street Life...this guy comes out of the Peter Pan....quite a few spoiler's made there way from that race into the Belmont Stakes winner's circle.

My Adonis and Optimizer under for a big tri or super:>) TJ

no Dullahan? :shock:

ratherrapid · Postby **ratherrapid** » Wed Jun 06, 2012 5:02 pm

i'd very certainly have a bet in on the superfecta if I could only make one here in Missouri. Somebody will probably screw this up, but box the obvious and if IHA loses, which I believe he will based on what the heck they're doing with the horse, could be big (huge) payoff.

Dullahan
Union R.
Paynter
IHA

What say u BDW???

TJ · Postby TJ » Wed Jun 06, 2012 5:45 pm

Bill from WA wrote:Hi TJ

Excellent analysis. I am hoping for a triple crown winner, but I can certainly see your scenario unfolding. Unstoppable U is another that may show up in the exotics. My choice for the biggest surprise is Five Sixteen.

Bill

Hi Bill,
Thanks Bill....looks good on paper anyway....but now the flesh and blood has to make it happen:>) I wouldn't mind throwing away my tickets if I'll Have Another wins it. I will have some with him on top using the bombs for third. I just can't understand how he keeps going without any of those efforts bothering him...and his last two were by far his best races.....reaching a lofty 109 beyer to nail Bode at the wire. That Preakness sent Bodemeister to the sidelines after his 3 straight triple digit beyer's....now I'll Have Another is in a similar position. Like I said,if he can win it then he's a throwback to the golden years of racing:>) TJ

TJ · Postby TJ » Wed Jun 06, 2012 5:51 pm

ratherrapid wrote:
TJ wrote:Below are my choices for the Belmont Stakes...

1st. Paynter...This horse is very intriguing...Bob Baffert thought this is his best 3YO and after watching his SA Derby he can be the spoiler here. He bobbled at the start and never got near the lead in the 1 1/8th mile SA Derby...he took his time getting himself together then put in a good 4 wide run through the lane to be beaten 3 3/4 lengths against I'll Have Another and Creative Cause. This with only one 5 1/2 furlong race lifetime under his belt. His race of choice is on or near the lead and his last beyer at Pimlico was a 106 under a hand ride on Preakness Day. I'll have another received a 109 driving to the wire in his Preakness victory.

2nd. Union Rags...his last chance to atone for his poor (or was it unlucky) 3YO campaign....he will have no excuse once around the two big sweeping turns of this oval with JV in the bike.

3rd. I'll Have Another...If he can pull this off after 4 tough wins in a row...he's a throwback to the golden era and a well deserved TC Champion.

4th. Street Life...this guy comes out of the Peter Pan....quite a few spoiler's made there way from that race into the Belmont Stakes winner's circle.

My Adonis and Optimizer under for a big tri or super:>) TJ

no Dullahan?

Hi Rapid,
I gotta give them a chance to beat me...for some reason I don't think Dullahan will go the mile and a half. That ought to put the kiss of life on him:>) Dale, you can thank me later. TJ

reenci · Postby **reenci** » Wed Jun 06, 2012 6:20 pm

ratherrapid wrote:
TJ wrote:Below are my choices for the Belmont Stakes...

1st. Paynter...This horse is very intriguing...Bob Baffert thought this is his best 3YO and after watching his SA Derby he can be the spoiler here. He bobbled at the start and never got near the lead in the 1 1/8th mile SA Derby...he took his time getting himself together then put in a good 4 wide run through the lane to be beaten 3 3/4 lengths against I'll Have Another and Creative Cause. This with only one 5 1/2 furlong race lifetime under his belt. His race of choice is on or near the lead and his last beyer at Pimlico was a 106 under a hand ride on Preakness Day. I'll have another received a 109 driving to the wire in his Preakness victory.

2nd. Union Rags...his last chance to atone for his poor (or was it unlucky) 3YO campaign....he will have no excuse once around the two big sweeping turns of this oval with JV in the bike.

3rd. I'll Have Another...If he can pull this off after 4 tough wins in a row...he's a throwback to the golden era and a well deserved TC Champion.

4th. Street Life...this guy comes out of the Peter Pan....quite a few spoiler's made there way from that race into the Belmont Stakes winner's circle.

My Adonis and Optimizer under for a big tri or super:>) TJ

no Dullahan?

...i think he's the sucker horse in here :roll:

Des · Postby **Des** » Wed Jun 06, 2012 7:14 pm

I also think Union Rags is sitting on a huge race and like Birdstone he won a Grade 1 Race over the Belmont Strip... I did notice in some of his races he seemed to drift out a bit in the stretch Johnny need to look out for that...............

...........Johnny V from Rags to Riches to Union Rags..............
..

Aug27 · Postby **Aug27** » Thu Jun 07, 2012 5:44 am

my triple:
9-11 over 9-11-12 over 3-5-9-11-12

#12 My Adonis -- the trainer won this race last year with another one that 'did not figure' (on paper) going in, and he recently said he thinks he's got this horse turned around and going in the right direction. Plus, the move to Ramon is huge. His best career race was in NY preceded by a bullet work, a pattern we see re-emerging here. I expect he or Paynter (#9) will set a leisurely pace and one of them will be around for at least 2nd, at the finish. Weird things happen, and pedigree does play a part IMO, in that last furlong.

TJ · Postby TJ » Thu Jun 07, 2012 7:04 am

Aug27 wrote:my triple:
9-11 over 9-11-12 over 3-5-9-11-12

#12 My Adonis -- the trainer won this race last year with another one that 'did not figure' (on paper) going in, and he recently said he thinks he's got this horse turned around and going in the right direction. Plus, the move to Ramon is huge. His best career race was in NY preceded by a bullet work, a pattern we see re-emerging here. I expect he or Paynter (#9) will set a leisurely pace and one of them will be around for at least 2nd, at the finish. Weird things happen, and pedigree does play a part IMO, in that last furlong.

Hi Aug,
I just hope Breen doesn't wear that same white hat he wore last time:>) TJ

Crystal · Postby **Crystal** » Thu Jun 07, 2012 7:59 am

Breens hat is right up there with O'Neills fedora..

DDT · Postby **DDT** » Thu Jun 07, 2012 8:33 am

TJ

I agree with you that Paynter's last race was super, and he ran a mile under a hand ride in 136.61 on the same day that Bodemeister ran the first mile in the Preakness in 136.69, slightly slower. I have not seen it mentioned that Paynter's dam is a full sister to Tiznow, and Tiznow has sired a Belmont winner. Paynter's sire is by Deputy Minister, he also sired a Belmont winner and is the damsire of 3 Belmont winners, so the distance should pose no problem. The problem for all of them is I'll Have Another. It appears to me that he has not lost much physically from his efforts in the Derby and Preakness, if he is right they will all be running for second money. He has tactical speed and is the fastest horse in the race, none of these horses have been able to out run him. Clean trip is all he needs. I think Union Rags is sitting on a big effort and with JV up it could get dicey down the lane. I wish them all good luck and safe trip.

DDT