Derby start

[bdw0617]

Hi BDW

As I mentioned in previous posts, I evaluate pedigree from a totally different perspective than most. For me, it works. Oxbow has a lot of stamina in his pedigree, but not in the areas that I examine. Awesome Again and Ghostzapper both won at 10 furlongs, but not until they were four-year-olds. I am examining these pedigrees with one race in mind, and try to project which horses have the right pedigree to run effectively at the Derby distance early in their three-year-old year. Using my methodology (as a starting point) I have picked 10 of the last 15 Kentucky Derby winners. I missed on Giacomo, Mine That Bird, Super Saver, Charismatic, and Monarchos, much to my dismay considering some of the payoffs. There is a lot of time to re-evaluate between now and Derby day, and my pedigree evaluation is just a starting point.
Best to you.

Bill

okay. so you aren't so much worried about the pedigree but when their pedigree is supposed to peak as well that's pretty neat

[TJ]

Here's an early look at a few Derby possibles, and my evaluation of their potential to get the Derby distance (based on my Modern Conduit Mare Profiles). I haven't gone into racing ability or connections as yet, this is just an opinion of distance aptitude. I have done pretty well over the years using this approach as a foundation. It seems like I have come up with a Team Valor runner the past couple of years.

1) Cerro (A-double plus)
2) Orb (A)
3) Frac Daddy (B-plus)
4) Shanghai Bobby (B)
5) Uncaptured (C)
6) Power Broker (C)
7) He’s Had Enough (C-minus)
Dewey Square (C-minus)
9) Fury Kapcori (C-minus)
10) Overanalyze (D)
11) Normandy Invasion (D)
12) Oxbow (D)
13) Shakin It Up (D)
14) Violence (D-minus)
15) Goldencents (D-minus)
16) Itsmyluckyday (D-minus)
17) Bern Identity (F)

bill what are your thougts on belvin and verrazano and general election?

Hi Smarty,
Verrazano runs at Gulfstream Park (5th race) and General Election races at the Fairgrounds (6th race) this Saturday. TJ

[Bill from WA]

Thanks for the link Jeff.

[smartyslew]

Here's an early look at a few Derby possibles, and my evaluation of their potential to get the Derby distance (based on my Modern Conduit Mare Profiles). I haven't gone into racing ability or connections as yet, this is just an opinion of distance aptitude. I have done pretty well over the years using this approach as a foundation. It seems like I have come up with a Team Valor runner the past couple of years.

1) Cerro (A-double plus)
2) Orb (A)
3) Frac Daddy (B-plus)
4) Shanghai Bobby (B)
5) Uncaptured (C)
6) Power Broker (C)
7) He’s Had Enough (C-minus)
Dewey Square (C-minus)
9) Fury Kapcori (C-minus)
10) Overanalyze (D)
11) Normandy Invasion (D)
12) Oxbow (D)
13) Shakin It Up (D)
14) Violence (D-minus)
15) Goldencents (D-minus)
16) Itsmyluckyday (D-minus)
17) Bern Identity (F)

bill what are your thougts on belvin and verrazano and general election?

Hi Smarty,
Verrazano runs at Gulfstream Park (5th race) and General Election races at the Fairgrounds (6th race) this Saturday. TJ

thanks tj,i better check general elections race, i had him running on friday 2/1 race 6 fg

have you seen either one work this year?

[TJ]

Here's an early look at a few Derby possibles, and my evaluation of their potential to get the Derby distance (based on my Modern Conduit Mare Profiles). I haven't gone into racing ability or connections as yet, this is just an opinion of distance aptitude. I have done pretty well over the years using this approach as a foundation. It seems like I have come up with a Team Valor runner the past couple of years.

1) Cerro (A-double plus)
2) Orb (A)
3) Frac Daddy (B-plus)
4) Shanghai Bobby (B)
5) Uncaptured (C)
6) Power Broker (C)
7) He’s Had Enough (C-minus)
Dewey Square (C-minus)
9) Fury Kapcori (C-minus)
10) Overanalyze (D)
11) Normandy Invasion (D)
12) Oxbow (D)
13) Shakin It Up (D)
14) Violence (D-minus)
15) Goldencents (D-minus)
16) Itsmyluckyday (D-minus)
17) Bern Identity (F)

bill what are your thougts on belvin and verrazano and general election?

Hi Smarty,
Verrazano runs at Gulfstream Park (5th race) and General Election races at the Fairgrounds (6th race) this Saturday. TJ

thanks tj,i better check general elections race, i had him running on friday 2/1 race 6 fg

have you seen either one work this year?

Hi Smarty,
Yes, GE does run tomorrow....thanks for the correction. I haven't seen Verrazano train....but he is training very well at Palm Meadows...along with three others in his race..Eton Blue, Sky Commander and Gunderman. This will be a pretty salty allowance race Saturday. TJ

[TJ]

Verrazano put himself into the Derby picture with his monster win at GP....the half brother to El Padrino was very impressive today. TJ
http://www.drf.com/news/gulfstream-park ... nt-victory

[Bill from WA]

Hi tj

That was a very impressive performance by Verrazano. Definitely a horse to watch. He has a pedigree that puts him in the Derby distance range (IMO). Sure looks to be talented.

[TJ]

Hi tj

That was a very impressive performance by Verrazano. Definitely a horse to watch. He has a pedigree that puts him in the Derby distance range (IMO). Sure looks to be talented.

Hi Bill,
I posted on another threat that he is a 1/2 to El Padrino who got hurt in last years Derby...but he is by Pulpit and Verrazano is by More Than Ready who I believe is a sounder producer than Pulpit was. I'm hoping they cold water him because he didn't race as a 2YO.....but the fact is, had he raced just one day earlier he would have still been two. He broke his maiden on New Year's day:>) He earned a 105 Beyer for his effort Saturday, by far the best beyer of the day in all the other 3YO races on Saturday. His 105 Beyer was more impressive when you consider Itsmyluckyday earned a 104 and Shanghai Bobby received a 100 in the Holy Bull. Yet he isn't eligible to race in the Derby until he passes his next test in a 50 or 100 point Derby qualifying race....my guess is either the Wood, Tampa Bay Derby or the Rebel.....I don't think Pletcher will run him against Shanghai Bobby in the Florida Derby. It has to be nerve wracking having a good 3YO and knowing in order to run in the Derby, he has to get a clean trip and run well in one of these qualifyers....a good but unlucky horse could end up sitting out the Derby in that scenario:>) TJ

[Bill from WA]

Hi TJ

I hope he makes it in. It would be a shame for a horse with that much potential to miss the chance.

Bill

[Bill from WA]

New Top 10.

1) Carson's Crown (just had a bullet work at the Fairgrounds - 1/59)
Very dangerous if he gets enough points to run. Great distance pedigree (IMO).
2) Cerro
3) Crop Report
4) Verrazano
5) Shanghai Bobby
6) Palace Malice
7) Orb
8) Flashback
9) Revolutionary
10) Frac Daddy

[TJ]

Hi Bill,
The top 3YO's on the east coast are beginning to gear up for the 50 point Derby test's coming up. Orb is now seriously considering the Fountain of Youth. Kiaran McLaughlin is fairly certain of running Elmutahid in the Fountain of Youth after his first try on the dirt was a winning one. Todd Pletcher will also enter his unbeaten 2YO, Violence in the Fountain of Youth. Overanalyze, who IMHO ran one of the best races of any 2YO last season in the Remsen, is scheduled to make his 3YO debut in the Gotham at Aqueduct. Pletcher continues his assault with Delhomme (3rd in the Remsen) who will enter the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn. An interesting note....Capo Bastone, who bled last time in the BC Juvenile under John Sadler's care...has been training very well at Palm Meadows for his new trainer, Todd Pletcher. Capo Bastone will make his 3YO debut this Saturday in a tough 1 1/16th mile 3YO allowance race at GP against runaway winner Edge of Reality, stakes placed Sky Commander and Duke of the City...who was beaten a legnth by Orb in his last start. As if this wasn't good enough for Hot Toddy, Verrazano is being pointed to the Tampa Bay Derby. Whoops, almost forgot... Pletcher's Wither's winner Revolutionary who added 10 points to his Derby quest last Saturday. Other than the Pletcher brigade...we have Motion's Cerro who is nominated to the Fountain of Youth but may run on the turf in the GR III mile and an eighth Palm Beach Stakes...although a word of caution...he has been inactive since his last start 18 days ago? Bill....how does Anthony Dutrow's Edge of Reality rate with you to get a distance of ground? TJ

[Bill from WA]

Hi TJ

I would rate Edge of Reality at "C". Just below Shanghai Bobby. I am really interested in Carson's Crown, but I don't have a clue as to his connection's plans. IMO he has the best early maturing 10 furlong pedigree of those that I have evaluated, and he seems to have some talent. It would be a shame for him not to make it in.

Bill

[TJ]

Hi TJ

I would rate Edge of Reality at "C". Just below Shanghai Bobby. I am really interested in Carson's Crown, but I don't have a clue as to his connection's plans. IMO he has the best early maturing 10 furlong pedigree of those that I have evaluated, and he seems to have some talent. It would be a shame for him not to make it in.

Bill

Hi Bill,
Unless they're looking to get their points at a racetrack other than where he's training....they may not be considering the Derby for him. At least he wasn't among the early-bird nominations to the LA. Derby and never considered the Risen Star. I asked about Edge of Reality for a possible upset in that allowance race coming up Saturday against Capo Bastone...distance is 1 1/16th and he's coming off a fast 6 furlong sprint win in his only start. TJ

[Bill from WA]

Hi TJ

Re: Edge of Reality. That distance should be right in his wheelhouse.

Good luck if you go for it.

Bill

[TJ]

Hi TJ

Re: Edge of Reality. That distance should be right in his wheelhouse.

Good luck if you go for it.

Bill

Hi Bill,
Thanks Bill...I'll continue to check the 3YO Stakes nominations as they close and let you know if I Carson's Crown's name shows up. We still have plenty point races left till 4/27. He could be coming to hand a bit slowly...and after looking at his form, he may be waiting for a synthetic track prep. TJ