STAKES. 1 1/16 Dirt. $400K Gotham S. GIII: Past Performances

[Whirlaway]

Things are a heatin' up. Gotta love the game!

In the spirit of Derby Fever, here is the link to the past performances for the Gotham Stakes G III: Go to Pletcher>Gotham: http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm

[Bill from WA]

I like Escapefromreality here. However, I don't think he can get the Derby distance if he makes it that far.

Bill

[zinn21]

A lot of lightly raced horses in this field. Would not be surprised if one of them jumped up and won the race. These three year olds can move forward dramatically at this time of year..

[Cree]

I agree with you Bill, I like Escapefromreality. I am scratching my head at some of these horses.

For a long shot, I'll take Elnaawi, he's interesting.

[Whirlaway]

Should be a fun race to watch.

Overanalyze is likely the class of the field but the Pletcher horses have shown to be a race short of top condition; I have the undefeated Vyjack second in class, he scored a RPF -40 in the G II Jerome, shows an outstanding series of works, one at 6fl on the AQI, trainer is hitting 24% in Graded Stakes and 24% winner last race, shows a positive jock switch, picks up four pounds. I have Escapefromreality next in line, the $3,500 gelding ran a tough second to Revolutionary in the G III Withers coming out of restricted company, his RPF -44 proves he is legit, shows a nice series of works on the tr.t, nice bullet, with the trainer winning at 23% in second route race,shows good late pace, his Dosage Index of 1.22 and Center of Distribution of .10 suggest distance capability, comes into this one seven pounds lighter than the top two - likely a negative jock switch. I'd like to Escapefromreality at 6/1, and so it seems would most everyone else, but I'll take Vyjack in this one.

Best of racin' luck.

[Bill from WA]

Good call Whirlaway. Very impressive finish by Vyjack. My horse spit it out when the real running started. I rate Vyjack as a B+ for stamina in the Derby (Big Brown, Super Saver). Again, congrats on a good job of handicapping.

Bill

[TJ]

Good pick Whirl....I posted my Gotham picks on another one of your threads in response to something bdw said. I wish I re-posted it here as some of our reader's may have knocked down the tri. TJ
Posted: Wed Feb 27, 2013 2:00 pm Post subject:
bdw0617 wrote:
now that i think about it i don't think the gotham deserves to be a 50 point race

Hi bdw,
Looks like this years Gotham will have some decent 3YO's in the field. It might be limited in legitimate quality (as all these preps will prove) but there will be at least three 3YO's deserving of a berth in the Derby. Overanalyze who beat Normand Invasion in the closely contested and highly rated 1 1/8th mile Remsen. Another deserving 3YO is the undefeated Vyjack...he was a real big 2YO brought around very slowly for his 3YO debut by trainer, Rudy Rodriguez. If he continued to grow into himself as a 3YO...he could be a contender in the Derby. His breeding might be a disadvantage....but he is a big, long striding, determined horse capable of outrunning his pedigree. Finally, Escapefromreality, a horse I thought was ridden poorly in his last start. He was beaten only a neck by Revolutionary in his 3YO Stake debut, while going two turns for the first time in his career. There could be a couple untested up and comers (like Clawback, West Hills Giant and Elnaawi) in this race as well and a surprise entry or two as owner's and trainer's scramble for Derby points. I believe the winner of this race will be worthy of 50 derby points. TJ

[dublino]

Watched the race and wasn't impressed.

Yeah he won, yeah he's undefeated but what did he beat?

Lot of the field looked like the wanted no part of the distance.

Funny ride on Overanylze, ok he was drawn wide but if you are gonna rush the horse up like that get the lead and then dictate the race, jock was then very easy on the horse in the home straight looked like he could have been closer if he was more vigorous, then again there's always the next race, looked like he would improve for this race.

[TJ]

Watched the race and wasn't impressed.

Yeah he won, yeah he's undefeated but what did he beat?

Lot of the field looked like the wanted no part of the distance.

Funny ride on Overanylze, ok he was drawn wide but if you are gonna rush the horse up like that get the lead and then dictate the race, jock was then very easy on the horse in the home straight looked like he could have been closer if he was more vigorous, then again there's always the next race, looked like he would improve for this race.

Hi dub,
I tend to agree with you....Overanalyze was just a shell of what he was at 2....he never moved forward physically off his 2YO season as Vyjack did, or he would have given Vyjack some competition. TJ

[bdw0617]

Watched the race and wasn't impressed.

Yeah he won, yeah he's undefeated but what did he beat?

Lot of the field looked like the wanted no part of the distance.

Funny ride on Overanylze, ok he was drawn wide but if you are gonna rush the horse up like that get the lead and then dictate the race, jock was then very easy on the horse in the home straight looked like he could have been closer if he was more vigorous, then again there's always the next race, looked like he would improve for this race.

dense why it should not be a 40 point race

it's like they made it a 40 point race just to not piss off the East coast trainers beucase this horse hasn't produced a horse that has made a lick of noise on the TC trail honestly since easy goer in 89. there have been some nice horses but none of them have made any noise when it counts, yet this race is basically an auto qualifer for the derby

[TJ]

If you watch the replay you will see the giant stride this horse has...he showed a new dimension today as he was snatched up out of the gate to avoide the pile up going into the first turn. You can see Vyjack climbing trying to break the strong hold his rider had on him into the first turn. Granted, the race overall wasn't filled with the best.....but I think Vyjack was very impressive. Only a 93 beyer...but I think they could be off with that rating.....visually a very impressive race in my opinion. Looks like Vyjack will meet Normandy Invasion among others in a full field in the 100 pt. Wood on April 6th. TJ
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9008429

[bdw0617]

i dont' like normady invasion only having 1 more run before a derby run (if he even makes it in the derby). he needs another prep bad

[TJ]

i dont' like normady invasion only having 1 more run before a derby run (if he even makes it in the derby). he needs another prep bad

Hi bdw,
They are basically running out of time...this is the rub with the new system. A nice horse who has a running style similar to Normandy's needs a good trip when he goes postward or he will be on the outside looking in. They may shop around before deciding for sure on the Wood....but they are confident Normandy likes the Aqueduct track and figures the Wood is his best chance to gain the points he needs. We'll see as the clock runs out and panic starts to set in on the owner's and trainer's who are interested in a Derby slot:>) TJ

[BenB]

There are a couple of pretenders gooiing in the Wood, So it might become an interesting race.

Looks like Todd Pletcher is in trouble, he can not stay away and can not ducking.

[TJ]

There are a couple of pretenders gooiing in the Wood, So it might become an interesting race.

Looks like Todd Pletcher is in trouble, he can not stay away and can not ducking.

Hi Ben,
There have been quite a few "Derby Fever" horses show up to the Derby preps so far. More than 75% of the horses filling these preps are just taking shots.....yet one shot proved correct all ready. When I've Struck a Nerve jumped up and won (after a couple mediocre races) because of his trainer's confidence in his ability to go a distance. I never be-grudge anyone's horse a chance to run in the Derby. That being said, we have another 14 qualifying races remaining. It sounds like a lot...but everything has to fall into place for each of these horses planning their assault on the Derby point system. It would be easy if they were cars...but they are flesh and blood and each have different personalities, varying recovery times from race to race, various aches and pains after a race and various running styles that limit them to a perfect, trouble free trip to win the race they decide on. I've said this before....the owner's and trainer's are under a lot of stress to gain the points their Derby hopeful's need to get into the starting gate. The race I am most interested in is the Tampa Bay Derby. I believe Verrazano is Pletcher's best shot at winning the Derby. Along with Verrazano...Falling Sky, Purple Egg, Dynamic Sky and Honorable Dillon are likely starter's. Verrazano does have a lot against him, as he never raced as a two year old. Though he does have the running style to afford him a clean trip in the upcoming Tampa Bay Derby. In the back of my mind I can't forget El Padrino....his 1/2 brother who had shin problems at two and flared up again during his Derby run. http://www.drf.com/sites/default/files/ ... 11.BL_.jpg
From what I see, "shins" is also what kept Verrazano away from the races till his 3YO season. Of the glimpse I've had of Verrazano in the flesh....it looks as if he has the same pin firing marks El Padrino did at 2. If you look closely at the picture PQ has of Verrazano, you should be able to make out the firing marks on Verrazano's left fore.....he has then on his right fore as well. http://www.pedigreequery.com/verrazano6
If all goes well with Verrazano, there is a very good possibility he will run again after the Tampa Bay Derby in the Wood or Florida Derby. I hope he goes in the Wood....it would make for a very interesting running of the Wood Memorial. TJ