Will we have too many Bernardini's?

[TJ]

Greetings all,

Something struck me yesterday as I was perusing the different farms in KY that show their new foals born, etc...

Anyway, it seemed as if every other foal was by Bernardini. The boy's been busy, but is this going to jump up and bite everyone as the pedigrees expand?
Are they going to eventually run into breeding problems as time progresses and IS he that good of a sire? I know he's Slew grandson (great grandson?) and all, but he's no Seattle Slew, and back when there was an issue of too many Seattle Slews, flooding the industry with tons of Slew sons at stud.

Hi erhdt,
As I think you saw, but may not have realized, I replied to your post in jest by saying "I would love to have a barn full of em:>) (Bernardini's)". Although I do believe anyone in the business might say the same...who doesn't have deep pockets that is:>) So I thought I should put in a little effort and enter a post which wasn't a joke and will hopefully be informative and of interest in this discussion.
There are always favorite sons in the industry...most are supported by the actual connections who have those deep pockets. Probably the reason why you saw an extreme number of Bernardini's foals in your perusal of some KY. breeding farms. I selectively chose Stallions that covered 150 or more mares in 2012 in order not to get cramps in my hands:>) The 2012 foal crop in North America, to include all of N. America and Peurto Rico was an estimated *22,500, the lowest in many years. This is an estimated number because late foal registration for the 2012 crop is ongoing till 2014, their two year old season. Bernardini, a favorite son for sure, given his connections ranked 11th. Below are the Jockey Club statistics of the number of Stallion covers reported to the Jockey Club ending in 2012. TJ
Congrats 205
Giant's Causeway 200
Bellamy Road 198
Malibu Moon 193
Scat Daddy 191
Henrythenavigator 189
Candy Ride 182
Leroidesanimaux 171
Tapit, 163
Sharp Humor, 161
Bernardini, 159
Harlan's Holiday, 158
Medagli d'Oro, 156
Lookin at Lucky, 156
Afleet Alex, 155
Sky Mesa, 150

[erhrdt3]

Dublino, you are a wise man.

[erhrdt3]

Thanks for the great info, TJ!!!


It is a bit frightening at the amount of new foals being born every year. Just adding those that you posted, that is a hell of alot of horses. And thats just in one year.

I fear for all of those babies and what will come of them. I truly hope and pray that the Jockey Club and all the TB people continue to step up and help those that are helping the non winners, but are still great horses, to get new homes. I also hope all of you will find it in your hearts to back Madeleine Paulsen/Pickens in her ongoing efforts to stop horse slaughter. I know there are many caring people on here, and I've heard from you and I appreciate you all that help out.

And a BIG thanks to you TJ!! Love getting info. on the horses! Thanks for getting all that info posted too!!

[diomed]

There is no guarantee that Barbaro would have beaten Bernardini. In fact, Bernardini could have beaten Barbaro. I know it would have been one heck of a race. I think some are so upset about Barbaro leaving us that there is this twisted hatred of Bernardini. It's very strange but it's out there. Bernardini is an exceptional individual both on and off the track. Breeders know this and that is why he is so popular. Having said that, breeders are overpopulating the breed. There are too many TBs going to slaughter and it is very sad.

[Cree]

There are too many non-TBs going to slaughter too. TBs are just traceable.

[Shannon]

I'm with Cree- There is a stat that TB's account for less than 17% of the slaughter bound horses a year- still too high, but what about the rest? Stock horse breeders, in my opinion, are far worse for the slaughter "glut" than TB. And by the same token, TB breeders and the JC have taken an active anti stance towards it vs AQHA/APHA and AHA who feel they need it to maintain the integrity and quality of their breeds.

[dublino]

I was thinking about Bernardini again last night and his numbers still don't stack up especially when compared to Flatter @ $20,000.

From 100 less foals earners of $20m compared to $13m.
Improves his mares by almost 50% and Bernardini drags his mares down 40%.

Still don't see the appeal.....

[Shannon]

dublino, if he's doing so poorly, wouldn't it stand to reason that the cycle will stop and he will not be a top sire or producer very soon? Doesn't that happen to most stallions where they have a grace period to show what they can do or they get removed elsewhere?

[FOS]

hi TJ...hi erhrdt3...hi all

Greetings all,

Something struck me yesterday as I was perusing the different farms in KY that show their new foals born, etc...

Anyway, it seemed as if every other foal was by Bernardini. The boy's been busy, but is this going to jump up and bite everyone as the pedigrees expand?
Are they going to eventually run into breeding problems as time progresses and IS he that good of a sire? I know he's Slew grandson (great grandson?) and all, but he's no Seattle Slew, and back when there was an issue of too many Seattle Slews, flooding the industry with tons of Slew sons at stud.

Hi erhdt,
As I think you saw, but may not have realized, I replied to your post in jest by saying "I would love to have a barn full of em:>) (Bernardini's)". Although I do believe anyone in the business might say the same...who doesn't have deep pockets that is:>) So I thought I should put in a little effort and enter a post which wasn't a joke and will hopefully be informative and of interest in this discussion.
There are always favorite sons in the industry...most are supported by the actual connections who have those deep pockets. Probably the reason why you saw an extreme number of Bernardini's foals in your perusal of some KY. breeding farms. I selectively chose Stallions that covered 150 or more mares in 2012 in order not to get cramps in my hands:>) The 2012 foal crop in North America, to include all of N. America and Peurto Rico was an estimated *22,500, the lowest in many years. This is an estimated number because late foal registration for the 2012 crop is ongoing till 2014, their two year old season. Bernardini, a favorite son for sure, given his connections ranked 11th. Below are the Jockey Club statistics of the number of Stallion covers reported to the Jockey Club ending in 2012. TJ
Congrats 205
Giant's Causeway 200
Bellamy Road 198
Malibu Moon 193
Scat Daddy 191
Henrythenavigator 189
Candy Ride 182
Leroidesanimaux 171
Tapit, 163
Sharp Humor, 161
Bernardini, 159
Harlan's Holiday, 158
Medagli d'Oro, 156
Lookin at Lucky, 156
Afleet Alex, 155
Sky Mesa, 150

Plenty to choose from. To each his/her own.

To my way of thinking though, quality and quantity of opportunity are musts to consider when attempting to evaluate/measure success in the racehorse sire category

That said...is it unreasonable to suggest that Bernardini may have been availed the premier opportunity (since his day-one in the shed) among all young stallions in recent memory? If that's the case, I'd submit that thus far a number of runners by Bernardini have had a notable degree of success at the races...but, to my way of thinking, he still has a lot more to accomplish (as a sire) before convincing (me anyway) that he is cut from a rare cloth similar to what young sire Tapit seems to be cut from.

And what about Malibu Moon, who stood for a couple of thousand dollars stud fee at the outset. What kind of cloth must he be cut from to have accomplished what he has?

Back to Bernardini...there's a Bernardini 2-year-old colt (for what it's worth, the result of a $60k [plus tax of course] stud fee) that appears to me to be potentially VERY special. I do NOT expect to see him at the racetrack 'til late this year, and it wouldn't surprise me if he didn't start until his 3-year-old year (2014). He's a very tall horse (I'm sensing he'll mature to be in the 17HH category), but he's no baby huey; rather he's a big guy, with plenty of bone, and lots of maturing to do; and he's evolving to be quite the athletic type and fluid mover.

He strikes me as one that just may have what it takes to be very special...and (if that's the case), I would not be surprised if he developed into a classics contender in 2014. No rush, patience patience patience...management management management...plus (of course) the necessary measure of luck .

Best to ya.

Respectfully

[TJ]

hi TJ...hi erhrdt3...hi all

Greetings all,

Something struck me yesterday as I was perusing the different farms in KY that show their new foals born, etc...

Anyway, it seemed as if every other foal was by Bernardini. The boy's been busy, but is this going to jump up and bite everyone as the pedigrees expand?
Are they going to eventually run into breeding problems as time progresses and IS he that good of a sire? I know he's Slew grandson (great grandson?) and all, but he's no Seattle Slew, and back when there was an issue of too many Seattle Slews, flooding the industry with tons of Slew sons at stud.

Hi erhdt,
As I think you saw, but may not have realized, I replied to your post in jest by saying "I would love to have a barn full of em:>) (Bernardini's)". Although I do believe anyone in the business might say the same...who doesn't have deep pockets that is:>) So I thought I should put in a little effort and enter a post which wasn't a joke and will hopefully be informative and of interest in this discussion.
There are always favorite sons in the industry...most are supported by the actual connections who have those deep pockets. Probably the reason why you saw an extreme number of Bernardini's foals in your perusal of some KY. breeding farms. I selectively chose Stallions that covered 150 or more mares in 2012 in order not to get cramps in my hands:>) The 2012 foal crop in North America, to include all of N. America and Peurto Rico was an estimated *22,500, the lowest in many years. This is an estimated number because late foal registration for the 2012 crop is ongoing till 2014, their two year old season. Bernardini, a favorite son for sure, given his connections ranked 11th. Below are the Jockey Club statistics of the number of Stallion covers reported to the Jockey Club ending in 2012. TJ
Congrats 205
Giant's Causeway 200
Bellamy Road 198
Malibu Moon 193
Scat Daddy 191
Henrythenavigator 189
Candy Ride 182
Leroidesanimaux 171
Tapit, 163
Sharp Humor, 161
Bernardini, 159
Harlan's Holiday, 158
Medagli d'Oro, 156
Lookin at Lucky, 156
Afleet Alex, 155
Sky Mesa, 150

Plenty to choose from. To each his/her own.

To my way of thinking though, quality and quantity of opportunity are musts to consider when attempting to evaluate/measure success in the racehorse sire category

That said...is it unreasonable to suggest that Bernardini may have been availed the premier opportunity (since his day-one in the shed) among all young stallions in recent memory? If that's the case, I'd submit that thus far a number of runners by Bernardini have had a notable degree of success at the races...but, to my way of thinking, he still has a lot more to accomplish (as a sire) before convincing (me anyway) that he is cut from a rare cloth similar to what young sire Tapit seems to be cut from.

And what about Malibu Moon, who stood for a couple of thousand dollars stud fee at the outset. What kind of cloth must he be cut from to have accomplished what he has?

Back to Bernardini...there's a Bernardini 2-year-old colt (for what it's worth, the result of a $60k [plus tax of course] stud fee) that appears to me to be potentially VERY special. I do NOT expect to see him at the racetrack 'til late this year, and it wouldn't surprise me if he didn't start until his 3-year-old year (2014). He's a very tall horse (I'm sensing he'll mature to be in the 17HH category), but he's no baby huey; rather he's a big guy, with plenty of bone, and lots of maturing to do; and he's evolving to be quite the athletic type and fluid mover.

He strikes me as one that just may have what it takes to be very special...and (if that's the case), I would not be surprised if he developed into a classics contender in 2014. No rush, patience patience patience...management management management...plus (of course) the necessary measure of luck .

Best to ya.

Respectfully

Hi FOS,
Glad to see your post...hope you are well. I hope this horse you're talking about is yours:>) Best Wishes, TJ

[karenkarenn]

Hi Tj- Where did you get your stats?
Congrats didn't get 200 mares covered in 2012....http://www.jockeyclub.com/information.a ... B&letter=C
Giants Causway got 166 and so on..Aflet Alex got 96

Not trying to start a fight here but where did you get your numbers?

I saw that with Congrats and I was like huh? Malibu Moon is way better IMO and he got 148.
K

[zinn21]

Karen Congrats covered 205 mares in 2011 resulting in 162 live foals. TJ was off a year. From the report:

Breeding Statistics - 2011 Breeding Year / 2012 Foaling Year

Congrats 205 172 161 79% KY

[TJ]

Hi Tj- Where did you get your stats?
Congrats didn't get 200 mares covered in 2012....http://www.jockeyclub.com/information.a ... B&letter=C
Giants Causway got 166 and so on..Aflet Alex got 96

Not trying to start a fight here but where did you get your numbers?

I saw that with Congrats and I was like huh? Malibu Moon is way better IMO and he got 148.
K

Hi Karen,
I never thought you are trying to start a fight....if I made an error I'm the first to want it rectified. Civil discussions is all I try to have. I got my stats from the Jockey Club as stated....maybe my eyes crossed when I was transposing to here:>) Will take another look. TJ

[TJ]

Karen Congrats covered 205 mares in 2011 resulting in 162 live foals. TJ was off a year. From the report:

Breeding Statistics - 2011 Breeding Year / 2012 Foaling Year

Congrats 205 172 161 79% KY

Hi Z,
Thanks.....my error. I've been off for a lot more than a year though:>)TJ

[karenkarenn]

Don't worry ......