Verrazano looks great. Vyjack looks very good. Revolutionary looks good. Itsmylucky day looks good, Orb looks strong. Shanghai Bobby is a precocious speedster. etc etc.
However, my guess is that some horse other then the ones hyped now will win the roses. I am not sure who that horse will be but the major 9 furlong prep races have not yet been run: The Santa Anita Derby, The Arkansas Derby, the Florida Derby, the Wood Memorial and the Blue Grass. These are the races that separate the men from the boys. If you don't run in any of these your chances of winning the roses are slim. Sure, War Emblem is an exception but go ahead and name another exception. You have to go back a very long way to find a horse that did not run in one of the above 5 preps listed that also won the roses. Spend a Buck in 1985 was another exception. He ran in and won some races at Garden State Park before whipping the Derby field on the Bill Daly.
In my opinion it is only after these above 5 preps at 9 furlongs are run that I can start making some sort of analysis as to the likely Derby winner. Remember also that the last 6 Kentucky Derby winners made only 2 starts at age 3 and if handicappers utilize that trend its goodbye to all those making 3 or more starts. It never used to be like that but the last 6 colts to wear the roses started only twice in their 3 year old year.
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Re: under the radar
stancaris wrote:Verrazano looks great. Vyjack looks very good. Revolutionary looks good. Itsmylucky day looks good, Orb looks strong. Shanghai Bobby is a precocious speedster. etc etc.
However, my guess is that some horse other then the ones hyped now will win the roses. I am not sure who that horse will be but the major 9 furlong prep races have not yet been run: The Santa Anita Derby, The Arkansas Derby, the Florida Derby, the Wood Memorial and the Blue Grass. These are the races that separate the men from the boys. If you don't run in any of these your chances of winning the roses are slim. Sure, War Emblem is an exception but go ahead and name another exception. You have to go back a very long way to find a horse that did not run in one of the above 5 preps listed that also won the roses. Spend a Buck in 1985 was another exception. He ran in and won some races at Garden State Park before whipping the Derby field on the Bill Daly.
In my opinion it is only after these above 5 preps at 9 furlongs are run that I can start making some sort of analysis as to the likely Derby winner. Remember also that the last 6 Kentucky Derby winners made only 2 starts at age 3 and if handicappers utilize that trend its goodbye to all those making 3 or more starts. It never used to be like that but the last 6 colts to wear the roses started only twice in their 3 year old year.
Hi Stan,
I think this years Derby may begin a whole new set of rules, precautions and biases under the new point system. There is no doubt that every horse you mentioned will be running next time in one of those events.....as long as they stay sound. It's getting very interesting now....but every prep is important in the conditioning and experience each affords the horse. Every prep, where a horse you like runs well indicates he's learning his lessons and coming to hand....that's one more necessary building block in his overall foundation to go the Derby distance. Yet, even the 1 1/8th prep's you mentioned, as important as they are...won't guarantee that the horse will go 1 1/4 miles....or if that 1 1/8th mile win didn't drain what that horse had left for his derby run? TJ
drained is the word
TJ: Yes, and that point you made about being drained is interesting. That is why the only 2 races at age 3 may be significant. Perhaps the breed is so fragile that now more than 2 races drains them. There are many horses in the last 6 years that had 3 or more starts at age 3 and all of them lost in the run for the roses. (from 2007-2012 all Derby winners had 2 starts at age3).
The 2 start pattern may be the wave of the future. Maybe even one start? How dastardly?
The 2 start pattern may be the wave of the future. Maybe even one start? How dastardly?
6 winners from 33 starters
TJ: In the last 6 years there were 118 Derby starters and only 33 of them had 2 or less starts at age 3. That translates into approx 28% of the starters. Yet from these 33 starters we get the last 6 Derby winners. I know its a very small sample but the data above shows a possible new trend for Derby winners (only 2 starts at age 3 and then the winners circle at Churchill Downs).
Looking at the data another way: 72% of the starters in the Derby over the last 6 years had more than 2 starts at age 3 ( a total of 85 runners) and none of these 85 runners could win the roses over the last 6 years.
Handicappers should consider the above stat when making their final decision on who to wager on in this years run for the roses. It certainly looks like a trend that just may continue.
Looking at the data another way: 72% of the starters in the Derby over the last 6 years had more than 2 starts at age 3 ( a total of 85 runners) and none of these 85 runners could win the roses over the last 6 years.
Handicappers should consider the above stat when making their final decision on who to wager on in this years run for the roses. It certainly looks like a trend that just may continue.
Re: 6 winners from 33 starters
stancaris wrote:TJ: Yes, and that point you made about being drained is interesting. That is why the only 2 races at age 3 may be significant. Perhaps the breed is so fragile that now more than 2 races drains them. There are many horses in the last 6 years that had 3 or more starts at age 3 and all of them lost in the run for the roses. (from 2007-2012 all Derby winners had 2 starts at age3).
The 2 start pattern may be the wave of the future. Maybe even one start? How dastardly?
stancaris wrote:TJ: In the last 6 years there were 118 Derby starters and only 33 of them had 2 or less starts at age 3. That translates into approx 28% of the starters. Yet from these 33 starters we get the last 6 Derby winners. I know its a very small sample but the data above shows a possible new trend for Derby winners (only 2 starts at age 3 and then the winners circle at Churchill Downs).
Looking at the data another way: 72% of the starters in the Derby over the last 6 years had more than 2 starts at age 3 ( a total of 85 runners) and none of these 85 runners could win the roses over the last 6 years.
Handicappers should consider the above stat when making their final decision on who to wager on in this years run for the roses. It certainly looks like a trend that just may continue.
Hi Stan,
A logical assumption from the previous style (graded Earnings) of Derby entry qualifications. Many had been horses who won and did well as 2YO's and some at 3 and came into the Derby resting on their graded earning laurels. That will not be the case in this years qualifications as the 2YO qualifying races weren't worth as much.....so many of the 2YO and early 3YO stars will be struggling to make enough points for this seasons Derby unless they have 50+ points all ready in the bank. For instance, Shanghai Bobby would all ready have a spot in the Derby starting gate (under the Graded Earning scenario) but will now be under the gun to perform in the Florida Derby or sit it out till the Preakness. What I am trying to say....and possibly not too well, is I think all these statistics may change under the new system of Derby qualification instituted this season. It forces a horse to come out and play, if they want to run in the Derby and not sit back and rest on their bank accounts knowing they have enough graded earning all ready to have a spot in the Derby....can't do that....they have to run to get in now. One thing I know for sure is Verrazano will need those four races he will have prior to the Derby....since he will have to make up for lost conditioning as a 2YO.....in my opinion, the fitness as well as the overall preperation/education of a horse is affected if they don't race as a two year old. That's why it's been so very hard to win a Derby, if they didn't race as a 2YO. This is also the rub in Verrazano's case...he will to be racing more than usual for a Pletcher trained horse, who usually gets at least 5 weeks between starts. This reverts back to the example that a big win for him (or any horse for that matter in any of the 100 pointers) in the 1 1/8th mile Wood could leave him empty for his Derby run? They are flesh and blood and get knocked out as easily as we do when we over do it. I take each prep race as they come and if the horse I'm interested in doesn't perform as expected...there are a number of reasons why that must be searched out...they over did it with the horse prior to the race (in training, workouts), he came back too soon off a good race, he may have bled, he may have been ill prior to the race and missed some training, he had trouble during the running, or he might be starting to get sore from previous efforts? These are the reasons why most horses don't perform to expectations. I also believe it is the reason why we haven't seen a TC winner in so long. The old timer's trained a horse....they didn't baby a horse. You have to be a walking razor blade to win the Derby. It is up to the trainer to arrive in the Derby starting gate with his horse looking to run a hole in the wind. Not a pampered, carefully handled horse....which in most cases today, means the horse is having problems but is still trying to be nursed into the Roses. Pampering horses is a recipe for disaster....it gleans soft, unfit horses that will still run their eyeballs out for you....but if they're too soft, they won't last. I believe this is the reason people think the modern TB is fragile...I think they're just too soft. TJ
too soft?
TJ: Here is my view on this years point system. Let's say a horse only has 10 points come the Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass, Wood Memorial, Fla Derby, Ark Derby or La Derby which are all 100 point races to the winner and 50 points for the second place finisher. A horse like the one above will need to either finish first or second in the above races to get into or have a chance to get into the Derby gate.
Now the jockeys instructions for such a race becomes critical. Probably the trainer and owner of such a steed will say to the jockey---Go for the win. Such pressure on said horse is not ideal because it may cause him to run all out to gather the points necessary for a Derby starting birth. Such a hard race may drain that individual come Derby day and he will be a little worse for wear.
Now lets look at another runner who already has 50 points and really doesn't need anymore (my guess I am not sure if 50 will be enough).... The jockey on this horse may be given instructions to race the horse without undo pressure of any kind. Such a scenario occurred in last years Fla Derby when Union Rags was never asked for anything extra in the whole race because he was already assured a Derby gate position based on his Fountain of Youth win and wins at age 2. He raced on his own all the way around and came in third while closing ground late and always being in hand throughout. That race took nothing out of him and he went off the second choice at 5-1 in the Derby. However he was bumped and squeezed back at the start and then was forced to take up behind Daddy Long Legs and could only make up some ground late to finish 7th. He skips the Preakness and wins his next start in the Belmont stakes as a fresh runner with over a month on the bench just waiting for the third leg marathon.
Main point: Look for horses that finish second or even third in their last start before the Derby if they already have enough points to get into the Derby gate. These types are not as likely to be worn out come Derby day. Trainer strategy will play a big part in this years run for the roses.
For Example: A horse like Verrazano doesn't have to run first or even second in his next start to get into the Derby gate. A third or even fourth place finish in the Wood will get him over 60 points which will probably be enough. If I was his trainer I would not instruct the jockey to go all out to win the next race. Just sit on him and let him dictate what he can do. Keep him in hand all the way over the next 9 furlong prep so that there will be much juice in the lemon come Derby day. No need to pressure him since he already is probably in the Derby gate with a third or fourth place finish in the Wood Memorial and just might get into the Derby gate even if he runs out of the money in the Wood. Come to think of it why not run him in a 9 furlong allowance race around March 30th and then give him a little more than a months rest before the Derby. He would be fresh and fit as a fiddle come Derby day. If he is that much better than the three year olds competing in this years run for the roses, he doesn't even need to get tested again. But then again maybe 50 points might make him miss getting into the derby gate. Tricky play: That strategy might come back to bite you in the face.
If a horse comes up to the big 9 furlong preps with zero points he may be asked to do too much in those preps to gather the points necessary to run in the Derby. Such will be the case for many aspiring trainers who want a seat at CD on Derby day and they will ask their jockeys to run hard to win or run second in the upcoming big events if they have zero points at that time.
Now the jockeys instructions for such a race becomes critical. Probably the trainer and owner of such a steed will say to the jockey---Go for the win. Such pressure on said horse is not ideal because it may cause him to run all out to gather the points necessary for a Derby starting birth. Such a hard race may drain that individual come Derby day and he will be a little worse for wear.
Now lets look at another runner who already has 50 points and really doesn't need anymore (my guess I am not sure if 50 will be enough).... The jockey on this horse may be given instructions to race the horse without undo pressure of any kind. Such a scenario occurred in last years Fla Derby when Union Rags was never asked for anything extra in the whole race because he was already assured a Derby gate position based on his Fountain of Youth win and wins at age 2. He raced on his own all the way around and came in third while closing ground late and always being in hand throughout. That race took nothing out of him and he went off the second choice at 5-1 in the Derby. However he was bumped and squeezed back at the start and then was forced to take up behind Daddy Long Legs and could only make up some ground late to finish 7th. He skips the Preakness and wins his next start in the Belmont stakes as a fresh runner with over a month on the bench just waiting for the third leg marathon.
Main point: Look for horses that finish second or even third in their last start before the Derby if they already have enough points to get into the Derby gate. These types are not as likely to be worn out come Derby day. Trainer strategy will play a big part in this years run for the roses.
For Example: A horse like Verrazano doesn't have to run first or even second in his next start to get into the Derby gate. A third or even fourth place finish in the Wood will get him over 60 points which will probably be enough. If I was his trainer I would not instruct the jockey to go all out to win the next race. Just sit on him and let him dictate what he can do. Keep him in hand all the way over the next 9 furlong prep so that there will be much juice in the lemon come Derby day. No need to pressure him since he already is probably in the Derby gate with a third or fourth place finish in the Wood Memorial and just might get into the Derby gate even if he runs out of the money in the Wood. Come to think of it why not run him in a 9 furlong allowance race around March 30th and then give him a little more than a months rest before the Derby. He would be fresh and fit as a fiddle come Derby day. If he is that much better than the three year olds competing in this years run for the roses, he doesn't even need to get tested again. But then again maybe 50 points might make him miss getting into the derby gate. Tricky play: That strategy might come back to bite you in the face.
If a horse comes up to the big 9 furlong preps with zero points he may be asked to do too much in those preps to gather the points necessary to run in the Derby. Such will be the case for many aspiring trainers who want a seat at CD on Derby day and they will ask their jockeys to run hard to win or run second in the upcoming big events if they have zero points at that time.