Time to turn the page and move forward to the Belmont Stakes. Check back...I will edit this to keep the probables up to date. TJ
Probable:
Orb...Joel Rosario
Oxbow...Gary Stevens
Revolutionary...Javier Castellano
Overanalyze...John Velazquez
Golden Soul...Robby Albarado
Freedom Child...Luis Saez
Giant Finish...Edgar Prado
Palace Malice...Mike Smith
Will Take Charge...Jon Court
Always In A Tiz..........................Scratched
Incognito...Irad Ortiz Jr.
Unlimited Budget...Rosie Napravnik
Frac Daddy...Alan Garcia
Midnight Taboo...Garrett Gomez
Vyjack...Julien Leparoux
Belmont Stakes Probables and Possibles
Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster, K~2
Belmont Stakes Probables and Possibles
Last edited by TJ on Tue Jun 04, 2013 5:25 pm, edited 18 times in total.
dublino wrote:I still like Revolutionary.
Why race Palice Malice didn't get the Derby trip an extra 2f seems like a crazy decision?
Hi dub,
Revolutionary seems like a logical choice given he galloped out past Orb in the Derby. This Belmont will draw a full field, possibly the largest in a very long time. Changes are being announced almost every day. Mylute has been withdrawn from consideration today and Orb galloped well enough to give Shug reason to run, though no definite confirmation as yet. Palace Malice is a better horse than many people believe and his chance's in the Derby were compromised when they added blinkers. The blinkers will be removed so he will not be as rank as he was in the Derby when he ran off with jockey Mike Smith. Mike Smith will take the mount in the Belmont Stakes and that, in itself bodes well for his chances. This comment from Cot Cambell of Dogwood Stable: ... “The blinkers sharpened him too much,”....“Mike couldn’t hold him. He said he did everything he could and he still could not apply any restraint....” TJ
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Bill from WA
- Breeder's Cup Contender
- Posts: 1936
- Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:20 am
- Location: Mountlake Terrace, WA
-
Bill from WA
- Breeder's Cup Contender
- Posts: 1936
- Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:20 am
- Location: Mountlake Terrace, WA
The Belmont from a Modern Conduit Mare perspective.
At 12 furlongs, the Belmont Stakes is probably the longest race that any of these young runners will be asked to attempt in their racing careers.
One would assume that the most stamina laden pedigree (from a Conduit Mare point of view) would prevail. Historically, this has not been the case.
Over the years I have endeavored to find a common denominator between the winners of this classic event, and I believe one has surfaced.
The Belmont racetrack is unique regarding the racing surface and configuration, and the distance that this race is run throws in another twist that makes the job of the handicapper even more difficult.
This year’s running is no different. Let’s look at the field.
The five entrants with the best MCM stamina pedigrees are: Palace Malice (2-5-0-11-8) (0.33), Freedom Child (7-3-0-8-11) (0.57), Incognito (6-2-6-5-10) (0.65), Orb (7-2-2-5-10) (0.67), and Code West (if he goes) (7-6-3-5-13) (0.68), Golden Soul (6-6-0-6-12) (0.69) is also right there, as is Revolutionary (8-2-3-5-10) (0.75).
Runners who are slightly less stamina laden are: Will Take Charge (5-5-4-3-9) (0.76), Midnight Taboo (3-7-5-12-3) (0.78), Unlimited Budget (5-5-2-11-4) (0.81), and Giant Finish (10-3-4-6-9) (0.96).
Runners whose pedigrees say that they have no business getting the 12 furlong distance are: Itsmyluckyday (9-3-6-4-8) (1.04), Oxbow (8-3-4-10-3) (1.15), Overanalyze (11-6-1-9-7) (1.21), and Micromanage (11-5-2-6-5) (1.61)
Going back to the year 2000, here are the MCM numbers for the winners of the Belmont Stakes.
2000: Commendable (8-3-2-6-7) (0.95)
2001: Point Given (3-7-5-10-6) (0.67)
2002: Sarava (4-4-3-10-7) (0.56)
2003: Empire Maker (5-6-1-9-6) (0.77)
2004: Birdstone (4-5-5-8-6) (0.72)
2005: Afleet Alex (8-4-2-9-6) (0.96)
2006: Jazil (5-9-2-8-6) (0.95)
2007: Rags To Riches (7-7-1-7-8) (0.92)
2008: Da Tara (8-1-3-11-2) (1.11)
2009: Summer Bird (5-6-5-8-4) (1.00)
2010: Drosselmeyer (8-8-1-11-6) (1.04)
2011: Ruler On Ice (6-4-3-10-5) (0.83)
2013: Union Rags (7-5-0-11-7) (0.76)
As you can see with these winners, the highest accumulation of points, for the most part, lies in the STOUT area of the profile.
Using this as a guide, the entrants for this year’s Belmont with the highest accumulation of STOUT points in relation to the other aptitudinal contributions would be: Midnight Taboo (12), Palace Malice (11), Unlimited Budget (11), and Oxbow (10).
I don’t know if Midnight Taboo has the talent to run with these, so I’ll have to do a little more digging into the PP’s.
I’ll probably play a couple of Supers using Orb, Golden Soul, Palace Malice, Unlimited Budget and Oxbow, and maybe toss Revolutionary, Midnight Taboo and Incognito (loved the gutsy effort in his last race) into the mix. My longshot to win it all is Palace Malice.
Bill
At 12 furlongs, the Belmont Stakes is probably the longest race that any of these young runners will be asked to attempt in their racing careers.
One would assume that the most stamina laden pedigree (from a Conduit Mare point of view) would prevail. Historically, this has not been the case.
Over the years I have endeavored to find a common denominator between the winners of this classic event, and I believe one has surfaced.
The Belmont racetrack is unique regarding the racing surface and configuration, and the distance that this race is run throws in another twist that makes the job of the handicapper even more difficult.
This year’s running is no different. Let’s look at the field.
The five entrants with the best MCM stamina pedigrees are: Palace Malice (2-5-0-11-8) (0.33), Freedom Child (7-3-0-8-11) (0.57), Incognito (6-2-6-5-10) (0.65), Orb (7-2-2-5-10) (0.67), and Code West (if he goes) (7-6-3-5-13) (0.68), Golden Soul (6-6-0-6-12) (0.69) is also right there, as is Revolutionary (8-2-3-5-10) (0.75).
Runners who are slightly less stamina laden are: Will Take Charge (5-5-4-3-9) (0.76), Midnight Taboo (3-7-5-12-3) (0.78), Unlimited Budget (5-5-2-11-4) (0.81), and Giant Finish (10-3-4-6-9) (0.96).
Runners whose pedigrees say that they have no business getting the 12 furlong distance are: Itsmyluckyday (9-3-6-4-8) (1.04), Oxbow (8-3-4-10-3) (1.15), Overanalyze (11-6-1-9-7) (1.21), and Micromanage (11-5-2-6-5) (1.61)
Going back to the year 2000, here are the MCM numbers for the winners of the Belmont Stakes.
2000: Commendable (8-3-2-6-7) (0.95)
2001: Point Given (3-7-5-10-6) (0.67)
2002: Sarava (4-4-3-10-7) (0.56)
2003: Empire Maker (5-6-1-9-6) (0.77)
2004: Birdstone (4-5-5-8-6) (0.72)
2005: Afleet Alex (8-4-2-9-6) (0.96)
2006: Jazil (5-9-2-8-6) (0.95)
2007: Rags To Riches (7-7-1-7-8) (0.92)
2008: Da Tara (8-1-3-11-2) (1.11)
2009: Summer Bird (5-6-5-8-4) (1.00)
2010: Drosselmeyer (8-8-1-11-6) (1.04)
2011: Ruler On Ice (6-4-3-10-5) (0.83)
2013: Union Rags (7-5-0-11-7) (0.76)
As you can see with these winners, the highest accumulation of points, for the most part, lies in the STOUT area of the profile.
Using this as a guide, the entrants for this year’s Belmont with the highest accumulation of STOUT points in relation to the other aptitudinal contributions would be: Midnight Taboo (12), Palace Malice (11), Unlimited Budget (11), and Oxbow (10).
I don’t know if Midnight Taboo has the talent to run with these, so I’ll have to do a little more digging into the PP’s.
I’ll probably play a couple of Supers using Orb, Golden Soul, Palace Malice, Unlimited Budget and Oxbow, and maybe toss Revolutionary, Midnight Taboo and Incognito (loved the gutsy effort in his last race) into the mix. My longshot to win it all is Palace Malice.
Bill
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.
Langston Hughes
Langston Hughes
Palace Malice is a sprinter you can throw up dosage numbers all day but my eyes say he is fast and doesn't stay.
Under his first 3 dams the best progeny are sprinters, his second and third dam both stayed 1m 1/16th.
He cannot stay he cannot win, TJ get me a shovel and a sack full of crow.
I will choke on the bloody thing if he wins.
Under his first 3 dams the best progeny are sprinters, his second and third dam both stayed 1m 1/16th.
He cannot stay he cannot win, TJ get me a shovel and a sack full of crow.
I will choke on the bloody thing if he wins.
Edited by Moderator
Palace Malice
Off his Derby performance, it's hard to argue your point, Dublino. BUT, I do think his pedigree indicates he can make the distance, using Bill From Wa Conduit Mare profile which has worked pretty well for Bill (and me) in the past. If he could just rate, even a little for the first mile, I think he definitely has a shot.
dublino wrote:Palace Malice is a sprinter you can throw up dosage numbers all day but my eyes say he is fast and doesn't stay.
Under his first 3 dams the best progeny are sprinters, his second and third dam both stayed 1m 1/16th.
He cannot stay he cannot win, TJ get me a shovel and a sack full of crow.
I will choke on the bloody thing if he wins.
Hi Dub,
Fast horses have upset the Belmont Stakes a number of times. Deep closer's seldom get up to win....they do but not consistently. Fast horses many times will gallop along on the lead while the field sits in wait expecting him to stop, sometimes waiting too long and the speed steals away through the lane. Many times never to be heard from again like Ruler on Ice, Da Tara and Commendable....others like Union Rags, Point Given and Empire Maker took command early and never looked back. There is seldom a quick pace in the Belmont and this emboldens those on the lead. The Belmont is like a European distance race....the pace is controlled by the riders and it is usually very slow as they try to nurse their mount to the wire. Even though it is a mile and a half race....they need only run a decent last 1/2 mile to win, so if they aren't pressured the first part of the race...horses that aren't bred to go long will. When they go the first 1/2 mile in 48 seconds a fast horse like Palace Malice has 15 lengths in reserve....when they come to him he only needs to let out a notch at a time to get to the wire. Concerning the crow...no worries have plenty to share:>) TJ
I don't have anything in for the horse/trainer but
a 4f work before a 1m4f race
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTwqE087AiY
Palace Malices final prep in 47.56 seconds.
Has to be a non-stayer, well I was right with Dawn Approach can I make it 2 for 2?
a 4f work before a 1m4f race
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTwqE087AiY
Palace Malices final prep in 47.56 seconds.
Has to be a non-stayer, well I was right with Dawn Approach can I make it 2 for 2?
Edited by Moderator
dublino wrote:I don't have anything in for the horse/trainer but
a 4f work before a 1m4f race
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTwqE087AiY
Palace Malices final prep in 47.56 seconds.
Has to be a non-stayer, well I was right with Dawn Approach can I make it 2 for 2?
Hi Dub,
With less than one week to go if these horses aren't ready to run 1 1/2 miles, nothing they do today will help. Half mile works were the order of the day with:
Orb 48.30
Overanalyze 47.92
Palace Malice 47.56
Revolutionary 48.51
Unlimited Budget 47.48
Midnight Taboo 47.26
Incognito 48.25 (training track)
Pletcher will have 5 entrants for the Belmont as he did in the Derby. Looks like Vyjack and Frac Daddy are also definite starter's. With a total of 15 horses going postward, it brings an additional starting gate into the picture....add a 50% chance of rain Friday and a 60% chance of rain Saturday....this will be an interesting Belmont Stakes. TJ