The GR I Travers

[TJ]

This years Travers will play a big role in deciding the 3YO Championship. Here's the field with past performances below. TJ
12th Race. (C11) Approx Post 5:46PM STAKES
THE TRAVERS (Grade I)
Purse $1,000,000 (Up to $70,000 NYSBFOA) One Mile And One Quarter
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.
1 Romansh(L) Dk B/ Br.c.3 126 Castellano, J Godolphin Stable Albertrani, Thomas
2 Orb(L) B.c.3 126 Rosario, J Janney, III, S McGaughey III, Claude
3 Verrazano(L) B.c.3 126 Velazquez, J Magnier, Mrs. J Pletcher, Todd
4 Golden Soul(L) Ch.c.3 126 Albarado, R Fipke, C Stewart, Dallas
5 Will Take Charge(L) Ch.c.3 126 Saez, L Horton, W Lukas, D.
6 Moreno(L) B.g.3 126 Ortiz, J Southern Equine Stables Guillot, Eric
7 War Dancer(L) Dk B/ Br.c.3 126 Garcia, A Diamond M Stable McPeek, Kenneth
8 Palace Malice(L) B.c.3 126 Smith, M Dogwood Stable Pletcher, Todd
9 Transparent Dk B/ Br.c.3 126 Ortiz, Jr., I Godolphin Stable McLaughlin, Kiaran
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... 2013-08-24

[Cree]

As much as I hate to say it, I think Palace Malice looks good for this. I don't think Verrazano has the distance ability.

I would personally love to see Orb win it though.

[Bill from WA]

I do like Palace Malice again, but if I were looking for an upset at a big price I would lean toward Romansh. $750,000 yearling with top connections. An improving horse in his second start off a two month break. He should love the added distance. I might throw in an exacta box on these two.

Nice betting race with a lot of possibilities.

Bill

[Jorge]

What about a big duel between two or more front-running established
names and then a big rushing surprise from who knows who after completing a mile? I know there are well-established horses who will be fighting for the lead but just remember that stress is stress!

If that's not the case then a new star will emerge and solidify his position from among the rest of the well-known favorites.

[Lisann]

My heart will be rooting for Orb. I'm concerned that the Derby Trail took too much out of him. If I were able to bet (dratted Missouri), I would bet Palice Malice.

[bdw0617]

dammit i'm not giving up lol. I am taking orb.

[Cree]

I agree with you bdw, I really would like to see Orb win. He's such a classy colt.

I am biting my nails off though, Pletcher is having a helluva meet, and Palace Malice looks good out there. I am convinced Verrazano can't go the distance.

[bdw0617]

seriously though i like orb. V won't go this far no doubt in my mind will be the biggest overlay at the entire meet

Palice malice is getting talked up after beating no one in the jim dandy and beating a bunch of tired horses in the Belmont

I still think a fresh and focused orb is better than palice malice. and you're going to get like 3-4 to 1.

[pfrsue]

I wouldn't be heartbroken at all if Verrazano wins. I've always really liked him.

But I'll still be perfectly happy if Orb gets it, and I think Palace Malice's last two wins make him look more multidimensional than I first thought.

[Cree]

Crist is touting Will Take Charge on DRF as the live longshot.

[FOS]

hi bdw0617

seriously though i like orb. V won't go this far no doubt in my mind will be the biggest overlay at the entire meet

Orb's a very nice horse. As for Verrazano, it's probably reasonable to suggest that many will likely be surprised if he wins this coming Saturday's mile and a quarter Travers.

Palice malice is getting talked up after beating no one in the jim dandy and beating a bunch of tired horses in the Belmont.

No, Palace Malice is being talked about because he's one helluva colt. How about considering some FACTS related to Palace Malice's impressive win in the recent running of the Jim Dandy, and the accomplishments of all the others he defeated in that race.

For starters...

1/ Palace Malice carried Highweight of 123 in the Jim Dandy...giving 2 to 6 pounds to the other 8 runners.

2/ Palace Malice won the Jim Dandy in near track record time of 1:47 1/5 (1:47.37 to be exact; the 2nd fastest 1 1/8 mile Jim Dandy EVER, by 11/100ths of a second). For some perspective, the Track Record for a mile and an eighth at Saratoga is 1:46 3/5 (1:46.64 to be exact).

3/ For some more perspective, the 1 1/8 mile Whitney Grade 1 winner Cross Traffic (a four year-old) carried 117 and won in 1:47 4/5; 3/5 of a second slower than Palace Malice won the Jim Dandy a week earlier, over the same FAST track, going the same mile and an eighth distance. Even the Whitney highweight, 5year-old Fort Larned (122), carried less weight than did Palace Malice (123).

4/ As for your comment that (and I quote you) "Palice malice is getting talked up after beating no one in the jim dandy..." I submit, let's again take a look, and see, if Belmont winner (and recent Jim Dandy winner too) Palace Malice's competition had won or placed in stakes company, this their 3-year-old year, prior to the Jim Dandy.

Horses are listed in order of finish in the Jim Dandy, weight carried is also indicated:

Palace Malice 123 - won Grade 1 Belmont S

Will Take Charge 121 - won Grade 2 Rebel S, won the Smarty Jones S

Moreno 121 - won Grade 2 Dwyer S

Bashaar 117 - 3rd Grade 3 Iowa Derby; 2nd Prairie Mile S

Code West 119 - won Grade 3 Matt Winn S; 2nd Grade 2 Risen Star S

Lookin Cool 119 - won Grade 3 Iowa Derby; 2nd Northern Spur S

Perfect Title 117 - multiple winner; no stakes placings

Mylute 117 - 3rd Grade 1 Preakness; 2nd Grade 2 Louisiana Derby

Freedom Child 121 - won Grade 2 Peter Pan S


You wrote above (and I quote you again) "Palice malice is getting talked up after beating no one in the jim dandy... ." Hmmm, seems that a little bit of time/effort/research uncovered some easy-to-find FACTS that support the reality that the above group of Jim Dandy runners accomplished plenty prior to running in the Jim Dandy.

I still think a fresh and focused orb is better than palice malice. and you're going to get like 3-4 to 1.

At the core here, your Priority-One seems to revolve around wagering.

At the core here, wagering is NOT my Priority One.

Maybe that's why the twain may never meet .

Respectfully

[TJ]

Orb's a very nice horse. As for Verrazano, it's probably reasonable to suggest that many will likely be surprised if he wins this coming Saturday's mile and a quarter Travers.
Respectfully

Hi FOS,
Personally, I'll be surprised if he doesn't:>) I know the consensus of opinion is that Verrazano won't go 1 1/4 miles....but I see no indication of this in his recent two turn races. The only time he went 1 1/4 mile's he was spinning his wheels in the slop. I have to give him a pass in his Derby run for that reason and expect he will silence his critics in the Travers. I take nothing away from Palace Malice or Orb....two very nice colts. Orb is a totally different horse coming into this race, thanks to his freshening and the hyperbaric chamber at Fair Hill. That chamber has done more for him than steroids:>) Regards, TJ

[bdw0617]

hi bdw0617

seriously though i like orb. V won't go this far no doubt in my mind will be the biggest overlay at the entire meet

Orb's a very nice horse. As for Verrazano, it's probably reasonable to suggest that many will likely be surprised if he wins this coming Saturday's mile and a quarter Travers.

Palice malice is getting talked up after beating no one in the jim dandy and beating a bunch of tired horses in the Belmont.

No, Palace Malice is being talked about because he's one helluva colt. How about considering some FACTS related to Palace Malice's impressive win in the recent running of the Jim Dandy, and the accomplishments of all the others he defeated in that race.

For starters...

1/ Palace Malice carried Highweight of 123 in the Jim Dandy...giving 2 to 6 pounds to the other 8 runners.

2/ Palace Malice won the Jim Dandy in near track record time of 1:47 1/5 (1:47.37 to be exact; the 2nd fastest 1 1/8 mile Jim Dandy EVER, by 11/100ths of a second). For some perspective, the Track Record for a mile and an eighth at Saratoga is 1:46 3/5 (1:46.64 to be exact).

3/ For some more perspective, the 1 1/8 mile Whitney Grade 1 winner Cross Traffic (a four year-old) carried 117 and won in 1:47 4/5; 3/5 of a second slower than Palace Malice won the Jim Dandy a week earlier, over the same FAST track, going the same mile and an eighth distance. Even the Whitney highweight, 5year-old Fort Larned (122), carried less weight than did Palace Malice (123).

4/ As for your comment that (and I quote you) "Palice malice is getting talked up after beating no one in the jim dandy..." I submit, let's again take a look, and see, if Belmont winner (and recent Jim Dandy winner too) Palace Malice's competition had won or placed in stakes company, this their 3-year-old year, prior to the Jim Dandy.

Horses are listed in order of finish in the Jim Dandy, weight carried is also indicated:

Palace Malice 123 - won Grade 1 Belmont S

Will Take Charge 121 - won Grade 2 Rebel S, won the Smarty Jones S

Moreno 121 - won Grade 2 Dwyer S

Bashaar 117 - 3rd Grade 3 Iowa Derby; 2nd Prairie Mile S

Code West 119 - won Grade 3 Matt Winn S; 2nd Grade 2 Risen Star S

Lookin Cool 119 - won Grade 3 Iowa Derby; 2nd Northern Spur S

Perfect Title 117 - multiple winner; no stakes placings

Mylute 117 - 3rd Grade 1 Preakness; 2nd Grade 2 Louisiana Derby

Freedom Child 121 - won Grade 2 Peter Pan S


You wrote above (and I quote you again) "Palice malice is getting talked up after beating no one in the jim dandy... ." Hmmm, seems that a little bit of time/effort/research uncovered some easy-to-find FACTS that support the reality that the above group of Jim Dandy runners accomplished plenty prior to running in the Jim Dandy.

I still think a fresh and focused orb is better than palice malice. and you're going to get like 3-4 to 1.

At the core here, your Priority-One seems to revolve around wagering.

At the core here, wagering is NOT my Priority One.

Maybe that's why the twain may never meet .

Respectfully

yes it does. it's pretty easy to sit here and pick horses that just won previous races as favorites. plus i genuinely am not impressed with the colt.

one thing i have learned, is that.. maybe 85-90% of the time, a horse is not heads and sholders BETTER than other horses. horses generally have groups that they fit in talent wise.

too many people get caught up in the "is this horse better than these, is this horse better than that group, which horse is the best" see that's how you are approaching this race and that's not how i think.

every once n a while, a horse is just that much better. RAchel in 2009, Zenyatta, Curlin his 4YO year, ghostzapper, Big Brown.. but more times than not, the race is won by a horse with a combination of talent + being pointed / fit for a race.

I don't think palice malice falls into the heads and sholders better crowd. I think he falls into the i won because the conditions permitted me to win crowd. i think he's extremely beatable here and i think orb will beat him. i don't think orb is BETTER than palice malice, not heads and sholders bdtter. i think it's just his time.

I think V is probably fit to fire but i just dn't think he wants to run this far. i would put him in my exacta though.

i am going to play a straight Tri Orb + V + Paliace Malice

[DDT]

TJ

I agree with your assessment that the Derby run by Verrazano was not due to a lack of ability to handle the distance but I will include War Dancer on my wagers just in case this long striding colt can handle the dirt and comes from out of the clouds to win it all or at least hit the board. Good luck and safe trip to all.

DDT

[Barcaldine]

The 1962 Travers Stakes, according to most old-timers, is the greatest edition of the race.

http://search.yahoo.com/search;_ylt=Amj ... %20youtube


Note that in the beaten field is the great multiple-champion filly, CICADA, who at 15.2 gave the huge RIDAN (16.2) and JAIPUR (16.2) a great run for the money. Amazingly, none of these horses were successful at stud.

Only the well-beaten CYANE later became a top-class progenitor.