A 9-furlong commoner versus a 10F "real-thing".

[Jorge]

This year we have witnessed several impressive 9 furlongs times
done by sophomores with an automatic assumption that they ought to be labeled as Derby favorites.

I ask: Do you agree?

What would you consider the rule of thumb for proclaiming
a 9-furlong horse a bona-fide 10-furlong favorite?

Would appreciate to read your opinions.

[bdw0617]

how they finish more than anything.

For instance I don't think Constitution is a 10F horse. I think California Chrome could go 12F as long as he's not pushed the entire way a la smarty jones belmont


At this point I don't really pay attention to pedigree.

[Mahubah]

Finishing up is important. Assuming an honest pace (neither artificially slow nor cutthroat), a good horse with a decent chance of honestly staying 10F ought to get the last eighth of a 9-furlong race in close to 12 seconds (or less) unless clearly being geared down because nothing else is in spittin' range.

Pedigree also has some bearing. A lot of peds you simply have to guess at because a lot of fairly nice horses (especially fillies) have never been asked to try a distance greater than 9F, but some female families are pretty dominant for speed or stamina. If you see a horse from a speed-happy female family, unless Papa could genuinely stay (and with some of these families, it would take two consecutive crosses to quality stamina to get significantly increased distance capacity), don't count on the horse getting Classic distances unless he's able to set a high cruising speed and maintain it with little pressure.

[stancaris]

I have found that a horse that runs the final 3/8 of a 9 furlong major prep race in 37 4/5 or less or a final 1/8 of a mile of a major 9 furlong prep race in 12 4/5 or less has a definite edge in the Ky Derby. Combining this factor with several other angles has produced high impact values and high ROIs throughout the history of the Derby.

[TJ]

This year we have witnessed several impressive 9 furlongs times
done by sophomores with an automatic assumption that they ought to be labeled as Derby favorites.

I ask: Do you agree?

What would you consider the rule of thumb for proclaiming
a 9-furlong horse a bona-fide 10-furlong favorite?

Would appreciate to read your opinions.

Hi Jorge,
What seemed like a disappointing year with the the likes of Honor Code, Top Billing and Shared Belief unable to get to the Derby. Still other exciting horses like Social Inclusion and Cairo Prince, who may be knocked out due to points? California Chrome has brought back the excitement. Your question seems to be pointed at California Chrome since he came on the scene as a question mark, won his last at 1 1/8th miles and after two Graded wins in a row he's the future book favorite to win the Derby. Since 1 1/8th miles is as far as the 3YO's travel, it's the only barometer we have as to judging if they will go the 1 1/4 miles of the Derby. So yes, I would agree CC (or any 3YO, who won impressively at the 1 1/8th mile distances in a Derby prep race) should be labeled the Derby favorite off such a win.

Concerning the rule of thumb...it does vary...hype and connections help, but basic good form and high figures usually dictates it. You have to look at the form of the Derby entry's and there is little doubt the betting public will be overwhelmed by CC's two 107 beyer figures back to back and his solid looking form. The overpowering speed and ease in which he's won these last two races leaves no choice for handicapper's but to crown California Chrome the Derby favorite. His record speaks for itself, yet he will face a quick pace and the fact it's been 52 years since a California bred has won the Derby is a negative? In all, 3 Cal breds have won the Derby, Morvich (1922), Swaps (1955) and Decidedly (1962). On a positive note, California Chrome's trainer, Art Sherman was Swaps’ exercise rider.

That being said, a favorites label in the Derby, never has been a guarantee that horse will win. Every Derby is unique and plays out differently due to weather conditions, the large crowds of people and the horses ability to cope, current fitness, post position, pace, track bias, the ability to handle the Churchill downs track etc. These are just a smidgen of what all Derby favorites have to deal with and overcome. Not to mention running 1 1/4 miles for the first time, where breeding plays an important role. There is this invisible wall that pops up during the running of that last 1/8 mile in the Kentucky Derby....those that have powered through it all into the uncharted final 1/8th of a mile, will yet have that invisible barrier to contend with. This is when their inherent capability is called on to separate the men from the boys at this challenging distance. I don't remember who it was that said this, but back in the day....they spoke of the Derby and the "last quarter with no water"....that is the challenge of the Kentucky Derby and the invisible wall, which only pedigree can break through. Good luck to all those participating in this years Kentucky Derby. TJ

[DDT]

TJ

Great post, as usual you hit the nail right on the head.

Stan

Your research of the Derby only covers the most recent 40 years, not "throughout the history of the Derby" as stated above. If you want to continue to hype your methods described in your latest book it would be prudent to watch what you say because some people on here actually did read the book.

DDT

[stancaris]

Whats wrong with a study that goes back 40 years? If you actually read my book you would have discovered that the final 3/8 angle I developed on final times has a p value of .001 which means it is statistically significant.

You always try to find fault with my work but to no avail. If you would like to criticize that angle at least have some basis for doing so. Provide some evidence as to why you think the angle is not good. That angle I developed on final 3/8 time and final 1/8 time has gotten 67.5% winners from only 29.1% of the starters and has an ROI of 41%.

[DDT]

Stan

You missed the point of the post, you did not research the history of the Derby, just the last 40 years. If you do not consider how the final 3/8's were run or under what circumstances it was achieved it is meaningless standing alone. Your angles in the book are based on past winners without regard to how the wins were achieved, I could go on and on but I am not trying to belittle your efforts, you take my comments personally and as a personal attack which is not the case. If you say one thing in the book and then contradict it with your posts here I would like to know why. In this case the book only looks at the last 40 years but here you said "throughout the history of the Derby", which statement is correct?

DDT

[stancaris]

DDT: OK, I only researched the last 40 years, not the complete history going back 100 years or more.

Do you have any criticism of my research over the last 40 years?

[DDT]

Stan

Absolutely, but a public forum is not the place to discuss it. You still did not answer my question of "why" did you state it that way.

DDT

[stancaris]

DDT: So, instead of using the phrase throughout history I should have said historically this angle has proven to be a good one.

[DDT]

Stan

How about what you actually did, researched the recent, 40 year history of the Derby, or better yet, the modern era of the Derby, and again, it does not explain why you said it the way you did. Do you think it has more clout by saying throughout the history of the Derby?


DDT

[Jorge]

How about including into your analysis the effect of those 3 additional pounds (126 vs. 123) for one additional furlong?

It makes one wonder if the size of the horse then plays a very critical role.

Thanks again for your opinions.

[TJ]

How about including into your analysis the effect of those 3 additional pounds (126 vs. 123) for one additional furlong?

It makes one wonder if the size of the horse then plays a very critical role.

Thanks again for your opinions.

Hi Jorge,
The final 170 point Derby qualifying races are at equal weights, other then the Arkansas Derby which allows a 4 LB allowance to Non-winners of a Sweepstakes (and there may be a couple of those horses entered in that race later today). In the Wood they all carried 123 pounds. In the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby and Santa Anita Derby they all carried 122 pounds.
The 3 or 4 LB additional weight carried when they run in the Derby is basically of little significance, as they all carry the same 126 LB impost in the Derby. If any advantage is given, it is the 1 LB advantage that the Wood runners would benefit from over the 1 1/4 miles...which will have a very slight impact. Although the 1 LB advantage afforded Wicked Strong and his favorable off the pace running style, could play a role if the early pace of the Kentucky Derby is as fast and contested as expected? TJ

[DDT]

Jorge

I agree with TJ that the weight carried has little to do with the ultimate outcome of the Derby. Horses like Arts and Letters, Little Current, Bet Twice, Risen Star, Victory Gallop, Hansel, Point Given and Empire Maker who failed to win the Derby at a mile and a quarter but were able to win at a mile and a half tend to demonstrate that post position and trip are the main reasons why horses fail in the Derby run and not the fact of the weight carried.

DDT