Belmont Stakes Probables

[jagger]

Just read on Brisnet that Sherman plans on jogging tomorrow and galloping, no distance mentioned, from Tuesday - Friday.

[TJ]

Here's Commanding Curve's 1/2 mile breeze...he only galloped out an 1/8th before heading to the outside fence to pull up. The way he's being trained, with just an 1/8th gallop out, it looks like trainer Stewart is contemplating having him closer to the pace in the Belmont. This would be a very good move...but won't know for sure what he's thinking till next Saturday:>) Video below. TJ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3iQg2RC ... _9YsNFhq3g

[TJ]

Just read on Brisnet that Sherman plans on jogging tomorrow and galloping, no distance mentioned, from Tuesday - Friday.

Hi jagger,
Yes....that's been his MO right along. They are sticking to their plan. His plan is actually basic training 101. Your horse works strong, you walk the next day. If your horse works just so, so and gets little out of the work, cleaned his tub and charging the webbing when you get to the barn....then a jog or gallop could be in order:>) There is never a cut and dried plan, you must treat each horse as an individual and train accordingly as to how well they are doing.
After a walk day you jog....how far is according to how well he comes out of the breeze, (CC jogged two miles his first day at Belmont off the plane). This is done to allow a horse to loosen up after a breeze, sometimes they have muscle aches or cramps after working the day before or shipping. This jog is crucial because it tells you how well your horses came out of the work and how willing he is to get back to it. Once this is established, it's back to more of the same...1 1/2 -2 1/4 miles of galloping. How far you gallop them during this time, is directly related to how your horse is eating, acting and carrying his weight. Sherman will fine tune him into the Belmont using these criterion...less galloping if they want him sharp and on the bit going into the Belmont, more galloping if they want him to be relaxed and easy to rate, which going 1 1/2 miles would be preferable:>) The speed of the gallop is as important as the distance galloped...it's a fine line which many times is determined after you get to the barn and see how your horse is acting. There's nothing he can do now, except keep CC happy, healthy and sound leading into the Belmont Stakes. TJ

[TJ]

Here are more of Sundays workouts, no video for Matuszak yet. TJ
Wicked Strong (Training Track)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wkMjkkYB1s
Commissioner and Matterhorn (Training Track)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UStodjiaO-o
Ride On Curlin (Main Track)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVqQaka7q7w#t=17

[TJ]

Monday 6/2...Looks like we won't know for sure where Social Inclusion will be going until entry day, on Wednesday. Owner said it's 70-30 they will go to the Woody Stephens?

Kid Cruz, also unconfirmed to run in the Belmont...galloped over the main track this AM, for the first time. All his training has been over the training track.

California Chrome jogged an easy mile and three eight's the wrong way, holding his weight well...Art Sherman arrives today.

Social Inclusion also jogged this morning and visited the gate...he broke out and acted up going in and was advised by the head starter, to return to the gate on Wednesday....possibly why he won't confirm race plans till Wednesday? This episode could force their hand to run the Woody Stephens. If he runs in the Belmont, they would start in front of the stands with the big crowd cheering....Social Inclusion could lose it??

Tonalist galloped a mile...TJ

[jagger]

Thanks for the update, TJ. Sure would be a shame if Social Inclusion missed the Belmont because of a behavior problem.

[TJ]

Thanks for the update, TJ. Sure would be a shame if Social Inclusion missed the Belmont because of a behavior problem.

Hi jagger,
Unfortunately, it's part of who he is....not to mention his fast entry into the top echelon of the sport. The rush to the top does little to help him understand what it's all about and to get over his issues....patience goes a long way with a horse as talented as he is. Rushing such talented, lightly raced horses into GR I events, isn't in their best interest whether they win or lose. I do think his presence in the Belmont would change the entire race...looking forward to see what goes on with him Wednesday? This is one of the most interesting Belmont's in years...all the contenders are being trained to the minute by their connections, they all seem to have a legitimate chance to win...just shaping up into a great race, with great access to their progress along the way. TJ

[Patuxet]

TJ wrote: "This is one of the most interesting Belmont's in years...all the contenders are being trained to the minute by their connections, they all seem to have a legitimate chance to win...just shaping up into a great race..."

Agreed. I haven't been this psyched about a Belmont in years. I expect to be as hoarse Sunday morning as when Rags To Riches won. For the love of the sport I hope to see Chrome as truly tested as Affirmed was and put all doubts to rest.

[jagger]

I agree that Social Inclusion's absence will totally change how the race might unfold. I usually try to eliminate as many horses as I can and publish my infamous "NO CHANCE" list, using my proprietary method , but other than Samraat, I don't see anyone else that I can throw out based on pedigree. This IS the most exciting Belmont for me since Smarty Jones had a chance at the Triple Crown in '04 (?). We had a "Smarty Party" that year and in an effort to turn up the sound on our new TV, I inadvertently turned off the TV. Half the race was run before I remedied the situation. My name was MUD . I'm hoping for the Triple Crown as well and hopefully in a good time.....sub 2:30 anyway for sure.

[TJ]

Tuesday 6/3...Linda Rice said unlikely Kid Cruz will run in the Belmont, possibly Easy Goer on Belmont Day or Dwyer in July??

California Chrome visited the paddock and galloped an easy 2 3/8ths miles....as usual picking up the pace at the end.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ICxNVNs ... _9YsNFhq3g

Tonalist galloped 1 3/8ths miles, 2 minute lick final 3/8ths.
Ride On Curlin galloped 1 1/4 miles after his walk day yesterday. Mike Welsch notes he was pulling coming to the wire as usual, but did not switch off right lead through the stretch and into clubhouse turn.
Commanding Curve visited paddock, galloped.

[TJ]

It's official, trainer Linda Rice announced Kid Cruz is out of the Belmont, may enter in the Easy Goer?

Social Inclusion's owner says Belmont not ruled out. It depends on how he schools in the gate tomorrow.??? TJ

[jagger]

Has this site been down for a day and a half or so?

Chrome did a 2 3/8 mile gallop yesterday. Haven't read TJ's report for today.

[TJ]

Hi Jagger,
The sites been down a while...lots went on this morning but I'll just condense....all the participates are doing great going into the Belmont. They drew the field and post position's this morning. Social Inclusion is out. Here is the field. Will post video shortly and what went on. TJ
Belmont Stakes
1. Medal Count, R. Albarado, 20-1
2. California Chrome, V. Espinoza, 3-5
3. Matterhorn, J. Bravo, 30-1
4. Commanding Curve, S. Bridgmohan, 15-1
5. Ride On Curlin, J. Velazquez, 12-1
6. Matuszak, M. Smith, 30-1
7. Samraat, J. Ortiz, 20-1
8. Commissioner, J. Castellano, 20-1
9. Wicked Strong, R. Maragh, 6-1
10. General a Rod, R. Napravnik, 20-1
11. Tonalist, J. Rosario, 8-1

[TJ]

Wednesday June 4th...
California Chrome galloped 2 1/4 miles and took a good hold the 2nd time by the wire. Looks better moving today then he has since he returned from his last breeze. As usually they only posted CC's gallop: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mwRoHQ9R ... tube_gdata

Tonalist continues to train well, jogged a mile then galloped 1 3/8ths miles at a decent clip.

Commanding Curve jogged a mile and galloped 1 1/4 miles.

Ride On Curlin again gets a negative review from Welsch???...his tweet regarding Ride on Curlin..........Ride On Curlin doesn't seem to have the same energy level coming out of Sunday's work as going in watching him gallop the past two mornings while also not switching back to his left lead galloping through the stretch and into clubhouse turn. He is the only other horse in the Belmont to have run in all three legs of theTriple Crown aside from California Chrome.

Wicked Strong went to the gate and did very well today standing perfectly...though he was brought to the gate at the training track?

Social Inclusion went to the gate and didn't do well again. He was asked to return again on Friday, although it isn't mandatory. He is entered in the Woody Stephens on Belmont Day.

[TJ]

Here are the official entries, post positions and past performances for the Belmont Stakes. I just posted the same to the racing forum. They expect a decent rain tonight Wednesday, into Thursday afternoon. Though two beautiful days expected Friday And Saturday, could insure a fast track for California Chrome's Triple Crown bid on Saturday. TJ

11th Race. (C11) Approx Post 6:52PM STAKES
THE BELMONT STAKES Grade I - $1,500,000
Purse $1,500,000 (Up to $60,000 NYSBFOA) One Mile And One Half FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.

1 Medal Count(L) B.c.3 126 Albarado, R Spendthrift Farm Romans, Dale
2 California Chrome(L) Ch.c.3 126 Espinoza, V Martin, P Sherman, Art
3 Matterhorn(L) B.c.3 126 Bravo, J Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners Pletcher, Todd
4 Commanding Curve(L) B.r.3 126 Bridgmohan, S West Point Thoroughbreds Stewart, Dallas
5 Ride On Curlin(L) B.c.3 126 Velazquez, J Dougherty, D Gowan, William
6 Matuszak(L) Dk B/ Br.c.3 126 Smith, M Prussin, G Mott, William
7 Samraat(L) Dk B/ Br.c.3 126 Ortiz, J My Meadowview Farms Violette, Jr., Richard
8 Commissioner(L) B.c.3 126 Castellano, J WinStar Farm Pletcher, Todd
9 Wicked Strong(L) B.c.3 126 Maragh, R Centennial Farms Jerkens, James
10 General a Rod(L) Dk B/ Br.c.3 126 Napravnik, R Skychai Racing Maker, Michael
11 Tonalist(L) B.c.3 126 Rosario, J Evans, R Clement, Christophe

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... m3=1462164