Outraged at Christ!

[hdembski]

In the DRF, Christ basically bashed "pedigree" as a way of betting races, this is what he said:

Q: Steve: I think you & Andy are giving Dosage a bum rap. It may not be valuable from a handicapping perspective but offers enormous value to breeders. Do you agree?
Steven_Crist: The Dosage guys are serious and scholarly and their work may well have some value to breeders. As a handicappiong tool, it is worse than useless. It now only "disqualifies" a few horses a year and those horses keep winning and doing well. Real Quiet, Charismatic, Menifee, Giacomo, Closing Argument. It's actually becoming a good play-against.

Well, i've been betting for 20+ years and use Pedigree & dosage regularly to base my bets and have done very well. I think it's wrong to make judgements on pedigree based on the Derby which has 20 horses. Pedigree and dosage are most usefull i have found in maiden special weights, turf races and races that are long in distance. Dosage isn't always correct but it has helped me on occasion to hit some huge prices. I know Thorograph users who think they know it all and i beat them at times. I don't think there is any "best way" as Christ, Beyer and watchmaker were all humbled in the Derby. Pedigree & dosage are like anything else in betting, another tool to help you to make a better decision as to who wins. The horses always have last say!

[Ill-bred]

He specifically bashed Dosage as a means to handicap the Derby, not pedigree handicapping in general.

I agree with him re: Dosage. It's not a very effective handicapping tool and it is actually misleading in many cases.

[hdembski]

I agree that Pedigree is critical in betting more so than "dosage". However dosage has helped me many a time, honestly more so in marathon races 1 1/4-1 1/2. It can be misleading as Wilko has a very high dosage of like 7 yet won in routes. Dosage definately has value but only a fool would use it as a sole way of picking a winner, just a usefull tool at times. As i said i know sheet betters and they aren't much better in determining a winner than me who slants towards using dosage and pedigree. Of course you haev to look at so many factors, works, trainer stats, weight shifts, equipment changes, medication changes, jockey, etc

[Tucumcari]

Dang, I thought you were actually mad at CHRIST... yes, i am blonde.

[FOS]

hi guys

Crist mentions Closing Argument...when I look at Closing Argument's pedigree I'm amazed (possibly almost baffled might be a better description) how (on paper) he can get a mile and a quarter...at the highest level.

He's out of a Mr Greeley (sprinter) mare and his 2nd dam is by champion sprinter Groovy...speed...speed...and more speed.

Closing Argument's success seems to lend credence to my premise that his sire Successful Appeal...All Things Considered...may very well prove to be an a aberration (if he hasn't done so already).

All things are not so easy to explain. Dosage...pedigree...etc might be considered indicators of what one who understands and can properly evaluate what they're looking at...might expect (arguably to a reasonable degree). That being said...I suggest that rarely are there certainties, but rather possibilities and probabilities.

Respectfully

[reenci]

In the DRF, Christ basically bashed "pedigree" as a way of betting races, this is what he said:

Q: Steve: I think you & Andy are giving Dosage a bum rap. It may not be valuable from a handicapping perspective but offers enormous value to breeders. Do you agree?
Steven_Crist: The Dosage guys are serious and scholarly and their work may well have some value to breeders. As a handicappiong tool, it is worse than useless. It now only "disqualifies" a few horses a year and those horses keep winning and doing well. Real Quiet, Charismatic, Menifee, Giacomo, Closing Argument. It's actually becoming a good play-against.

Well, i've been betting for 20+ years and use Pedigree & dosage regularly to base my bets and have done very well. I think it's wrong to make judgements on pedigree based on the Derby which has 20 horses. Pedigree and dosage are most usefull i have found in maiden special weights, turf races and races that are long in distance. Dosage isn't always correct but it has helped me on occasion to hit some huge prices. I know Thorograph users who think they know it all and i beat them at times. I don't think there is any "best way" as Christ, Beyer and watchmaker were all humbled in the Derby. Pedigree & dosage are like anything else in betting, another tool to help you to make a better decision as to who wins. The horses always have last say!

its .............. "CRIST" not christ.

[Pete]

Hi,

HDembski,

Outraged is a strong word. I personally don't like Steve Crist, but he's entitled to his opinion.

If you've found a use for dosage, I congratulate you because I've found none.

FOS,

Completely agree about Closing Argument and Greeley's Galaxy (would be near impossible picks in the classics based on pedigree).

I'll be at the MD 2yo sale but please remind me to respond about Omega Code. Thanks

Regards,

Pete

[SemparQuel]

Yesterday the Italian Derby (mt 2400) was won by
DE SICA C, 2002 DP = 5-3-14-0-0 (22) DI = 2.14 CD = 0.59

[hdembski]

Hey only point is, dosage is like a thousand other factors in betting a race, it's another tool. I've hit bombers like TJ's lucky moon up in canada and also hit on sarava and have made big money d/t dosage. It's most usefull in the longer races to determine which horse may have a better chance of stretching out. I feel its a reason why a horse like wilko can't win classic distances with a dosage of 7.00. Crist & beyer, sure they are allowed their opinion, but they are arrogant and think their way is best and anyone elses way or methods are irrelevant. I'm here to say Dosage does have it's value, i'm living testament to it. Alex does have a fairly low dosage so should win the Belmont.

[Pete]

Dembski,

I gave Sarava to Paris Hill (board member) as a good longshot in the Belmont. Not based on dosage or even pedigree, but based on the facts of his development as a racehorse.

Until today (because you mentioned it) I'd never looked at dosage figures for any horse in that race. Kindly tell me how you selected Sarava using dosage when he was the only top contender with a borderline sprinter's pedigree (4.50/1.00)? Contrarian play? I prefer darts to dosage - more accurate

If you're going to make up stories and shill - get your facts straight..

Pete

[hdembski]

Well pete, keep tearing up your tickets and i'll keep going to vegas for tournaments! If you want to ignore dosage it doesn't make you as good as a handicapper as someone who uses it. But when you hit a pick 6 with $4 like i have, then tell me how great your methods are, or if you get people paying you for advice on handicapping. If you want a joke, try lauren stitch at DRF who thinks she knows it all about this stuff.

[Ill-bred]

I think we should keep this thread active on the Crist/Christ angle alone.

[freddymo]

FOS Successful Appeal will be a respectable stallion up to 9f after that it should be like the rest of the Mordern Breed ....Hit or Miss?

[Pete]

Hi HDembski,

I asked a simple question you haven't answered...

How did you select Sarava to win his Belmont based on dosage when his dosage was the closest to a sprinter's of all the top finishers? I selected him without knowing a single dosage of any of the horses in the race.

Please explain.

As far as ripping up tickets, I rarely do, but then again I don't often bet.

Awaiting your response.

Pete

[Pete]

Hi FreddyMo,

Freddy, there is no reliable blood to get 10 furlongs in North America any longer. You're right in saying that it's hit or miss. Smarty Jones and Funny Cide were sired by long sprinter (7f-8f) types.

Pete