Sounds familiar ---but does anyone believe it? Wait until the breeding interests tell the current owners what the realities of standing a Stallion are all about. I find it hard to believe that at the end of the day Afleet Alex will be racing next year. The economics just do not support it but maybe this one will be different. What do others think?
If he does go to stud next year what will his stud fee be? What will Northern Afleet's stud fee be next year? If you use Smarty Jones and Elusive Quality as some recent examples the numbers are huge. I would appreciate hearing some informed thoughts.
Afleet Alex to race as a 4 yr old?
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bcassidy
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Afleet Alex to race as a 4 yr old?
Last edited by bcassidy on Mon Jun 13, 2005 11:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
best regards Brendan
I would think that Alex may do very well as a stud better than smarty, only 3 horses have won grade one stakes at both 6f and 1 1/2m Affirmed, Secretariat, and Afleet Alex. He owns 2 stakes records at 6f including the grade 2 sanford and he was clearly the best at 1 1/2 with gas left in the tank also his breeding is good for the grass.
Racerx wrote:I would think that Alex may do very well as a stud better than smarty, only 3 horses have won grade one stakes at both 6f and 1 1/2m Affirmed, Secretariat, and Afleet Alex. He owns 2 stakes records at 6f including the grade 2 sanford and he was clearly the best at 1 1/2 with gas left in the tank also his breeding is good for the grass.
hi racerx,
sorry but i, have to differ greatly as to the turf for alex
for this simple reason
affirrmed is a -3000
afleet alex is a 9030 + read plus
so therfore never ever grass turf loan or what have you only tough tough on dirt also his speed is not there for the loan.
Regard's Siegy,
Flora is beginning of biology, chemistry is master.
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bcassidy
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Racerx---I have said this on some of my earlier posts but Northern Afleet is one of the best turf sires in the country. I don't think people realize how good his offspring will run on the turf yet but it won't be long before they find out, Northern Afleet can sire any kind of horse you hope to produce, Sprinter, Router, or Turf star. They will be Precocious and also run well on an off track. He is an unbelievable stallion that will prove to be one of our greats. I say this confidently because the system I developed ranks him as high as the best in our country right now and he has done this with a very modest book of mares. Wait until he gets the foals from the better mares in Ky. We will be talking about his abilities at stud for years to come. Let's hope he stays healthy and fertile.
Last edited by bcassidy on Tue Jun 14, 2005 7:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
best regards Brendan
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/8206010/
He will be running as a 4 year old even if they sell him now. GP fleet is a pretty nice grass horse by northern afleet. Ritchey has 2 very very nice fillies by the sire also, Kelseys treasure the highest beyer (106) by a fillie so far this year, and a 2 year old named Here's Dana. As far as Alex's full brother Unforgettable Max I have heard that John Silvertand the breeder of both Max and Alex say he thought more of Max as a yearling than Alex but he believes he was and is a very mismanaged horse.
He will be running as a 4 year old even if they sell him now. GP fleet is a pretty nice grass horse by northern afleet. Ritchey has 2 very very nice fillies by the sire also, Kelseys treasure the highest beyer (106) by a fillie so far this year, and a 2 year old named Here's Dana. As far as Alex's full brother Unforgettable Max I have heard that John Silvertand the breeder of both Max and Alex say he thought more of Max as a yearling than Alex but he believes he was and is a very mismanaged horse.
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StrawberryFelidos
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I've heard this "running at age 4" tale before, and spoken with all sincerity, too (remember how Smarty Jones was supposed to win the Dubai World Cup? yeah, like that) but it doesn't hold up once the owners straighten-out their priorities: would I rather watch an exciting year of racing or quit as a mega-millionare who can have everything I ever want for the rest of my blessed life? hmmm..
Think about it: the stable name is CASH IS KING. If tradition holds, Alex will be off to the shed whether they have to make-up a reason or not:
"Afleet Alex's retirement was announced early this morning by trainer Tim Ritchey, who said the colt will stand at __ Stud after suffering a terrible injury. 'We walked into the stall this morning, and there was this HUGE, maybe 3mm, splinter stuck right in his butt. We were all horrified, but thankfully someone had tweezers and we were able to remove it.' This got the owners thinking about the dangers of racing a horse, and after a consultation with several vets they deemed that Afleet Alex can no longer safely race. 'There are too many wood planks out there,' one of the owners said, 'you never know when a splinter might get wedged in a really unfortunate place. I mean, imagine if that thing had gotten stuck in the family jewls- we might be the owners of a gelding right now!' Afleet Alex will depart the track tomorrow following a goodbye parade."
Of course, it would thrill me to death if they were to prove me wrong
Think about it: the stable name is CASH IS KING. If tradition holds, Alex will be off to the shed whether they have to make-up a reason or not:
"Afleet Alex's retirement was announced early this morning by trainer Tim Ritchey, who said the colt will stand at __ Stud after suffering a terrible injury. 'We walked into the stall this morning, and there was this HUGE, maybe 3mm, splinter stuck right in his butt. We were all horrified, but thankfully someone had tweezers and we were able to remove it.' This got the owners thinking about the dangers of racing a horse, and after a consultation with several vets they deemed that Afleet Alex can no longer safely race. 'There are too many wood planks out there,' one of the owners said, 'you never know when a splinter might get wedged in a really unfortunate place. I mean, imagine if that thing had gotten stuck in the family jewls- we might be the owners of a gelding right now!' Afleet Alex will depart the track tomorrow following a goodbye parade."
Of course, it would thrill me to death if they were to prove me wrong
hi Racerx
You wrote "As far as Alex's full brother Unforgettable Max I have heard that John Silvertand the breeder of both Max and Alex say he thought more of Max as a yearling than Alex but he believes he was and is a very mismanaged horse."
Silvertand is NOT the breeder of both Unforgettable Max and Afleet Alex...Devers and Hatchett bred Max.
Respectfully
You wrote "As far as Alex's full brother Unforgettable Max I have heard that John Silvertand the breeder of both Max and Alex say he thought more of Max as a yearling than Alex but he believes he was and is a very mismanaged horse."
Silvertand is NOT the breeder of both Unforgettable Max and Afleet Alex...Devers and Hatchett bred Max.
Respectfully
hi bcassidy
You wrote "If (Afleet Alex) does go to stud next year what will his stud fee be? What will Northern Afleet's stud fee be next year? If you use Smarty Jones and Elusive Quality as some recent examples the numbers are huge."
I presume that Alex will be the 3-yo champion. With that in mind I expect that if Afleet Alex's career came to an end prior to another start...$30,000-$40,000 might be a legit range. Don't lose sight of the fact that he's not by a proven sire-of-sires...nor is his grandsire Afleet highly regarded as a sire-of-sires (save Northern Afleet).
If he continues to impress (probably in the Haskell and/or Travers) then wins the BC Classic...Afleet Alex'll be Horse of the Year. In that case...I expect $50k to $75k would be a viable range, not inflated-so-we-can-discount-him numbers. Certainly his conformation (along with his physical appeal...impression...pedigree etc) will come into play (and All Things must be Considered) prior to setting the stud fee.
It'll be interesting to see how it all unfolds...I suggest that Roses In May and Afleet Alex are the top contenders for Horse of the Year honors. I expect RIM will go to Saratoga (for the G1 Whitney)...then to the Woodward or JC Gold Cup...then the BC Classic. If Roses wins all three...that should garner the eclipse for him. If each stumbles...it may come down to the BC Classic...and even then it could be a very close call...very exciting indeed. I sense that the world-class...seasoned...Roses In May (already the winner of the $6 mil Dubai World Cup this year) might be difficult for Alex to handle.
A serious stumble by either (in the course of the year) and the other will benefit...lots of possibilities.
Regarding Northern Afleet...he's an outstanding 12-yo stallion with four crops of racing age...but arguably his sire Afleet (referenced above)...although by Mr Prospector...still raises some doubts in the minds of some. As a result...I expect that if Northern Afleet is priced UNrealistically...his appeal will suffer. Taylor Made Farm (where NA currently stands)...arguably has a history of overpricing more than a few horses (Examples: Saint Ballado $125k...Our Emblem $35k...Exploit $30k...Artax $30k etc) and it might be fair to suggest that (as a result) many breeders might resist Northern Afleet if he's tagged with a stud fee that is perceived as overinflated.
Who knows what Northern Afleet will stand for in 2006. I suggest that the $25k to $35k range might make sense (and if he comes up with another good young one...all bets are off)...but what makes sense might be ignored, and $40k to $50k wouldn't surprise me (considering where he stands).
bc...you reference Smarty Jones. I suggest his stud fee (at $100k) is laughable. Despite the fact that he was discounted dramatically (although arguably not enough) very early on (a clear sign of breeders' resistance to his advertised stud fee of $100k)...something doesn't feel right (or maybe doesn't 'smell' right is a better description) with the whole Smarty deal.
On the other hand...Smarty's sire Elusive Quality is a whole different story...I suggest he's a very good one...and all but impossible to get a season to...even at $100k.
Respectfully
You wrote "If (Afleet Alex) does go to stud next year what will his stud fee be? What will Northern Afleet's stud fee be next year? If you use Smarty Jones and Elusive Quality as some recent examples the numbers are huge."
I presume that Alex will be the 3-yo champion. With that in mind I expect that if Afleet Alex's career came to an end prior to another start...$30,000-$40,000 might be a legit range. Don't lose sight of the fact that he's not by a proven sire-of-sires...nor is his grandsire Afleet highly regarded as a sire-of-sires (save Northern Afleet).
If he continues to impress (probably in the Haskell and/or Travers) then wins the BC Classic...Afleet Alex'll be Horse of the Year. In that case...I expect $50k to $75k would be a viable range, not inflated-so-we-can-discount-him numbers. Certainly his conformation (along with his physical appeal...impression...pedigree etc) will come into play (and All Things must be Considered) prior to setting the stud fee.
It'll be interesting to see how it all unfolds...I suggest that Roses In May and Afleet Alex are the top contenders for Horse of the Year honors. I expect RIM will go to Saratoga (for the G1 Whitney)...then to the Woodward or JC Gold Cup...then the BC Classic. If Roses wins all three...that should garner the eclipse for him. If each stumbles...it may come down to the BC Classic...and even then it could be a very close call...very exciting indeed. I sense that the world-class...seasoned...Roses In May (already the winner of the $6 mil Dubai World Cup this year) might be difficult for Alex to handle.
A serious stumble by either (in the course of the year) and the other will benefit...lots of possibilities.
Regarding Northern Afleet...he's an outstanding 12-yo stallion with four crops of racing age...but arguably his sire Afleet (referenced above)...although by Mr Prospector...still raises some doubts in the minds of some. As a result...I expect that if Northern Afleet is priced UNrealistically...his appeal will suffer. Taylor Made Farm (where NA currently stands)...arguably has a history of overpricing more than a few horses (Examples: Saint Ballado $125k...Our Emblem $35k...Exploit $30k...Artax $30k etc) and it might be fair to suggest that (as a result) many breeders might resist Northern Afleet if he's tagged with a stud fee that is perceived as overinflated.
Who knows what Northern Afleet will stand for in 2006. I suggest that the $25k to $35k range might make sense (and if he comes up with another good young one...all bets are off)...but what makes sense might be ignored, and $40k to $50k wouldn't surprise me (considering where he stands).
bc...you reference Smarty Jones. I suggest his stud fee (at $100k) is laughable. Despite the fact that he was discounted dramatically (although arguably not enough) very early on (a clear sign of breeders' resistance to his advertised stud fee of $100k)...something doesn't feel right (or maybe doesn't 'smell' right is a better description) with the whole Smarty deal.
On the other hand...Smarty's sire Elusive Quality is a whole different story...I suggest he's a very good one...and all but impossible to get a season to...even at $100k.
Respectfully
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StrawberryFelidos
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bc...you reference Smarty Jones. I suggest his stud fee (at $100k) is laughable. Despite the fact that he was discounted dramatically (although arguably not enough) very early on...
Do tell. How big of a discount were you hearing?
Yes, I'm still sour that he retired young. Quick retirement for big, bloated bucks... Bleah
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bcassidy
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Strawberryfelidos--Great point about the Cash is King stable name.
Racerx--The emotions are high after these last two wins and the breeding industry hasn't had a chance to educate the Afleet Alex team about the hard realities of making a stallion. When they are threw with their tutorials, coupled with the insurance expense to race a stallion worth 25 million plus as a 4 yr old----Alex will be sold this year and he will start a fabulous stallion career next year, I hope.
Any one of us would do the same thing in their shoes and while I would love to see him race as a 4 yr old---- I would also like to see his progeny race and the thought of seeing them one year earlier is very exciting as well. Can you imagine what it would be like if Mr P or Northern Dancer never got a chance to have a stallion career. Why would anyone take that chance by risking a life threatening injury by racing him as a 4 yr old. Especially considering that all AA could do by racing as a 4 yr old is prove he wasn't as talented at 4 as he was as a 3 yr old.
Will he stand for more as a stallion if he races at 4--I think not; will he make more money as a racing 4 yr old--probably not when you factor in the insurance policy expense; He would be almost gauranteed to make 4-5 million in stud fees with hardly any risk..... Case closed--He will be standing somewhere next year, my guess is Taylor Made. Why not corner the market on the Northern Afleet stud lines? Smart move on their part.
Racerx--The emotions are high after these last two wins and the breeding industry hasn't had a chance to educate the Afleet Alex team about the hard realities of making a stallion. When they are threw with their tutorials, coupled with the insurance expense to race a stallion worth 25 million plus as a 4 yr old----Alex will be sold this year and he will start a fabulous stallion career next year, I hope.
Any one of us would do the same thing in their shoes and while I would love to see him race as a 4 yr old---- I would also like to see his progeny race and the thought of seeing them one year earlier is very exciting as well. Can you imagine what it would be like if Mr P or Northern Dancer never got a chance to have a stallion career. Why would anyone take that chance by risking a life threatening injury by racing him as a 4 yr old. Especially considering that all AA could do by racing as a 4 yr old is prove he wasn't as talented at 4 as he was as a 3 yr old.
Will he stand for more as a stallion if he races at 4--I think not; will he make more money as a racing 4 yr old--probably not when you factor in the insurance policy expense; He would be almost gauranteed to make 4-5 million in stud fees with hardly any risk..... Case closed--He will be standing somewhere next year, my guess is Taylor Made. Why not corner the market on the Northern Afleet stud lines? Smart move on their part.
Last edited by bcassidy on Tue Jun 14, 2005 10:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
best regards Brendan