horsenuts... very well said, especially the 'man behind the curtain' analogy.
Sysonby... here's another way to think about the GC/SA debate: In a hypothetical situation, if you're life were on the line based on the quality of foal raised, would you go to GC (who is putting up abysmal numbers and is the classic underachiever based on the opportunities he received in his first book of mares), or would you go to SA (who is the prototypical overachiever and is succeeding without a star-studded first book of mares)?
Don't Be Fooled...Even Some of the Time
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn
FloridaGators wrote:.
Sysonby... here's another way to think about the GC/SA debate: In a hypothetical situation, if you're life were on the line based on the quality of foal raised, would you go to GC (who is putting up abysmal numbers and is the classic underachiever based on the opportunities he received in his first book of mares), or would you go to SA (who is the prototypical overachiever and is succeeding without a star-studded first book of mares)?
No but if I intended to sell to Darley or Godolphin, the choice is easy.
What FOS neglected to put up were the sales results. I'll use last year's because the major sales haven't happened yet this year:
Giant's Causeway
http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/isd/au ... us#pagetop
Successful Appeal
http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/isd/au ... us#pagetop
I just don't see Demi O'Byrne or Narvick or John Ferguson buying Successful Appeals. That's why I don't think the comparisons are valid.
-
FloridaGators
- 2yo Maiden
- Posts: 87
- Joined: Tue May 03, 2005 10:11 am
hi Sysonby
Respectfully...if you are suggesting that the sales results you have referenced (re: Giant's Causeway) are impressive...I question your evaluation process. To my way of thinking...his 2004 auction sales results re: weanlings, yearlings, and 2-yo's in training expose some VERY disturbing (or at the very least discouraging and/or disappointing) results.
Yes a few consignors made money...but a significant percentage not only lost money...but couldn't even attract buyers (often at very low levels)...hence the RNA's. Again...for the most part many of the GCs that were RNA'd were hammered down at EXTREMELY low figures in relation to the real dollars that the breeders had expended to produce the weanlings, yearlings and 2-yo's. Arguably...these miserable numbers might often be a reflection of what potential buyers thought of the Giant's Causeways...apparently NOT MUCH.
Seems like you're ignoring the costs related to producing a foal...
Consider these costs:
1/ Giant's Causeway (northern hemisphere) stud fees
US$115,000+- in 2001 (2-yo's of 2004)...plus airfare may apply (refer below)*
US$143,100 (includes sales tax) in 2002 (yearlings of 2004)
US$159,000 in 2003 (weanlings of 2004)
*North American breeders sent 40 mares to the court of GC in Ireland...air travel (in some cases roundtrip) is an expense that cannot be ignored.
2/ Farm related costs to maintaining a mare and raising her foal. (horse trans...feed...board [if applicable]...halters...blacksmith etc etc etc)
3/ Registration(s)...BC and stakes nominations
4/ Sales prep (and/or 2-yo in training costs)
5/ Veterinary costs
6/ Insurance costs
7/ Sales entry fee(s)...sales company commissions (whether sold or bought back)...agent commissions and charges related to sales
8/ And what about amortizing the mare ?
I suggest that if you honestly and thoroughly evaluate Giant's Causeway...and All Things are Considered...you might agree that his sales numbers (which you supplied) leave a lot to be desired (probably an understatement). They might be considered (at least to some extent) nothing short of embarrassing.
Furthermore...I suggest that when evaluating the sales figures you MUST take into account the RNA's...they can clearly helps define a stallion's marketability etc etc etc. And is arguably one place where the stallion gurus...managers (or whatever you choose to call them) cannot control everything. Except of course if they are involved in some charade to create a misleading perception...hmmm.
Sysonby...you wrote (regarding circumstances under which you might breed to GC) "if I intended to sell to Darley or Godolphin, the choice is easy."
Sysonby...respectfully...you are exposing a naivete (re: the thoroughbred game). You talk as if by breeding a nice mare to Giant's Causeway...you are guaranteed a profit ...WRONG...and that you'll have a built in buyer in Darley or Godolphin. You may have a built-in 'looker'...but NOT a built in 'buyer'. Consider this...probably many of the commercial breeders who bred their mares to GC felt the same as you do...when they signed their contracts. Reality is, MOST of those breeders took it on the chin...although a few did attract real money (including some of Ferguson's).
I've taken the liberty to mark Winner or Loser after each sale or RNA...taking into account approx production-related costs (and let's not forget all the expenses...including the commissions etc either). And Sysonby...we're not even taking into account the cost of money.
Be Honest in your evaluation...and recognize that even some of the possible financial winners might be very close calls (as to whether or not there was a profit [however small] vs a loss)...but I suggest that even a small profit in relation to a production cost (which includes ALL expenses etc related to the production of the subject weanling, yearling or two-year-old) that can arguably be in excess of a couple of hundred thousand dollars...and over a period of years...is NOT a winner.
Giant's Causeway...2004 Auction Results
Weanlings...2004
c, Beyond the Sun.........($150,000) RNA.....................................Loser
f, Danzig's Dreamer......Pleasant Hill Farm $60,000......................Loser
c, Esther Rose..............Dromoland Farm $450,000......................Winner
f, Halo America.............Robert Ogden $575,000..........................Winner
f, Lemon Dove..............Sunrise Stable $360,000.........................Winner
f, Million Stories.............Gus Bell, Agt $385,000...........................Winner
f, My Moccasin..............NeverTell Farm, LLC $110,000.................Loser
f, Rose Frances.............Fleetwood Bloodstock $325,000...............Winner
c, Sianema (GB)..........McKeever-St. Lawrence $117,142..............Loser
f, Slide........................Ashford Stud, agt. Athens $285,000...........Winner
c, Storm Fear..............($235,000) RNA........................................Loser
Giant's Causeway Yearlings...2004
c, Affirm the Gold.....Robert N. Scanlon, agt. $100,000..................Loser
c, Alaska Queen (FTSAUG84)...Team Valor $1,850,000.................Winner
f, Another..............................($95,000) RNA...............................Loser
f, Attitude................Michael S. Brown, agt. $130,000....................Loser
c, B. A. Valentine....................($190,000) RNA.............................Loser
c, B. A. Valentine....................($325,000) RNA.............................Loser
f, Baba Light...........................($55,000) RNA...............................Loser
f, Baba Light............Elisabeth H. Alexander $32,000......................Loser
c, Brightest Star (GB)..........Demi O'Byrne $468,352.....................Winner
f, Broad Smile.....................($100,000) RNA................................Loser
c, Candy Charm..................($83,039) RNA..................................Loser
f, Carsonality.........Anthony Stroud Bloodstock $50,000.................Loser
c, Chipeta Springs................($95,000) RNA.................................Loser
f, Colorado Song...Anthony Stroud Bloodstock $65,000..................Loser
c, Commodities...........Centennial Farms $350,000.......................Winner
c, Cristalline (Chi)................($15,000) RNA.................................Loser
c, Dellagrazia......................($175,543) RNA................................Loser
f, Deputy Sue....................Whitechurch Stud $340,000.............. Winner
f, Destination Mir..........Edward K. Gaylord II $50,000..................Loser
c, Doula..............Charles Egerton Bloodstock $711,895................Winner
f, Ela Athena (GB)...Anthony Stroud Bloodstock $187,204..............Loser
c, Fantasy Lake...............Paul F. I. Cole $125,000.........................Loser
f, Faralmond (Arg)...Anthony Stroud Bloodstock $100,000..............Loser
f, =Fascinating Rhythm (GB)..............($374,409) RNA......................?
c, Fountain Lake...Robert Baker and Bill Mack $825,000.................Winner
c, Freddie Frisson..............................($380,000) RNA......................?
f, Gal in a Ruckus..............................($240,000) RNA...................Loser
c, Gold From the West.......................($120,000) RNA...................Loser
c, Golden Aster...................Dogwood Stable $170,000..................Loser
f, Grand Girlfriend...............John C. Oxley $140,000.....................Loser
f, Happyanunoit (NZ)Bozzi Bloodstock Italia $18,831.....................Loser
f, Highbury (KEESEP283)..............Gainesway $250,000..................?
c, How Could You..............................($200,000) RNA..................Loser
f, Hum Along......................Donald R. Dizney $190,000.................Loser
c, Isle Go West...Robert Baker and Bill Mack $290,000..................Winner
f, June Moon (Ire)..............................($170,000) RNA..................Loser
c, La Spia..................Straightaway Farm, agt. $30,000.................Loser
c, Langoustine (Aus).............Gordon-Watson $561,613.................Winner
c, Lilac Garden..........Peter W. Chapple-Hyam $46,835..................Loser
c, Lily O'Gold.......................Ben Glass, agt. $425,000..................Winner
f, Louve Mysterieuse................Paul Webber $300,000..................Winner
f, Lovat's Lady..........................C & R Stable $42,000..................Loser
f, Misty Moon (Brz)..................R. D. Hubbard $50,000..................Loser
c, Music House................J. Howard Johnson $569,677..................Winner
f, Northern Pageant......................Firestone $240,000...................Loser
c, Oscillate.........................................($65,000) RNA..................Loser
c, Overturned........................Demi O'Byrne $700,000..................Winner
f, Palacoona (Fr)................Atoka Bloodstock $335,000.................Winner
f, Panama Canal................;NW Management $600,000.................Winner
c, Pharma..........................................($65,000) RNA..................Loser
c, President's Girl...............B. Wayne Hughes $750,000................Winner
c, Prospective...........................John Warren $140,000.................Loser
f, Rajmata.................G. Watts Humphrey Jr. $425,000.................Winner
f, Rare Blend....................................($240,000) RNA..................Loser
f, Ravnina..........................George Krikorian $260,000.................?
f, Realm................................Mikki Tsuge $250,000......................?
c, Resurge..............................John C. Oxley $375,000................Winner
c, Roza Robata...............Dale L. Romans, agt. $255,000................?
c, Rusty Back...................................($170,903) RNA.................Loser
c, Sculpture...........John Ferguson Bloodstock $400,000................Winner
c, Serape...............John Ferguson Bloodstock $875,000...............Winner
c, Shoppingwithbetty.........................($150,000) RNA.................Loser
c, Show Me the Stage..................Cam Allard $330,000................Winner
c, Shy Princess........................BBA (Ireland) $229,956...............Loser
c, Smokey Mirage....John Ferguson Bloodstock $1,000,000...........Winner
f, Special Mistress........................Gainesway $240,000...............Loser
c, Statuette..............................Demi O'Byrne $1,150,000...........Winner
f, Successfully................Kathryn M. Nikkel, agt. $110,000...........Loser
c, Sweeping Story.......John Ferguson Bloodstock $800,000..........Winner
c, Sweet Times (GB).............................($93,602) RNA...............Loser
c, Takesmybreathaway................Demi O'Byrne $600,000...........Winner
f, Technicolour (Ire)...Narvick International, agt. $200,000...........Loser
f, Theme (Ire)...............................Marco Bozzi $105,000............Loser
c, Theoretically.....................La Bahia Stud Inc. $243,365...........Loser
c, Til Forbid........................Willliam Entenmann $100,000............Loser
f, Tomorrow's Song...................Winsong Farms $180,000...........Loser
f, Touch of Greatness.....Reynolds Bell Jr., agt. $1,050,000..........Winner
c, Twigazuri................................Demi O'Byrne $600,000...........Winner
f, Veil of Avalon..........Anthony Stroud Bloodstock $27,000...........Loser
f, Victorious Lil...........................Robert Mitchell $200,000............Loser
c, Vogue Star (Arg).........John T.L. Jones Jr., agt. $60,000...........Loser
c, With a Twist.........................NW Management $300,000..........Winner
c, Won't She Tell......................Lansdon Robbins $270,000............?
f, Wood of Binn..................Waterwild Farm, agt. $200,000..........Loser
c, Woodland Orchid (Ire)............Gordon-Watson $224,809..........Loser
f, Woodyousmileforme............................($121,682) RNA...........Loser
Giant's Causeway Two-year-olds...2004
c, Angelica Tree.....................................($145,000) RNA.............Loser
c, Anna Sterz................................Michael J. Gill $60,000.............Loser
c, Antique Pearl (Ire)..............................($190,000) RNA.............Loser
f, Courtesane..........................................($20,000) RNA..............Loser
c, =Fernanda (GB)......................Gordon-Watson $98,059............Loser
f, Missy's Mirage...................J. S. Company Ltd. $200,000............Loser
c, Pleasant Performer..West Point Thoroughbreds $155,000...........Loser
c, Seeta (GB)..........................................($195,000) RNA............Loser
f, =Urgent Liaison (Ire)......Murayama Bloodstock $274,567.............?
c, =Wildwood Flower (GB)..Anthony Stroud Bloodstock $274,567......?
c, Wind Silence......Thoroughbred Bloodstock Service $225,000......Loser
Sysonby...respectfully...if you will honestly take the time to crunch the numbers, I expect you'll realize how ridiculous GC's current stud fee...$200,000...is.
Don't allow yourself to be fooled.
Respectfully
Respectfully...if you are suggesting that the sales results you have referenced (re: Giant's Causeway) are impressive...I question your evaluation process. To my way of thinking...his 2004 auction sales results re: weanlings, yearlings, and 2-yo's in training expose some VERY disturbing (or at the very least discouraging and/or disappointing) results.
Yes a few consignors made money...but a significant percentage not only lost money...but couldn't even attract buyers (often at very low levels)...hence the RNA's. Again...for the most part many of the GCs that were RNA'd were hammered down at EXTREMELY low figures in relation to the real dollars that the breeders had expended to produce the weanlings, yearlings and 2-yo's. Arguably...these miserable numbers might often be a reflection of what potential buyers thought of the Giant's Causeways...apparently NOT MUCH.
Seems like you're ignoring the costs related to producing a foal...
Consider these costs:
1/ Giant's Causeway (northern hemisphere) stud fees
US$115,000+- in 2001 (2-yo's of 2004)...plus airfare may apply (refer below)*
US$143,100 (includes sales tax) in 2002 (yearlings of 2004)
US$159,000 in 2003 (weanlings of 2004)
*North American breeders sent 40 mares to the court of GC in Ireland...air travel (in some cases roundtrip) is an expense that cannot be ignored.
2/ Farm related costs to maintaining a mare and raising her foal. (horse trans...feed...board [if applicable]...halters...blacksmith etc etc etc)
3/ Registration(s)...BC and stakes nominations
4/ Sales prep (and/or 2-yo in training costs)
5/ Veterinary costs
6/ Insurance costs
7/ Sales entry fee(s)...sales company commissions (whether sold or bought back)...agent commissions and charges related to sales
8/ And what about amortizing the mare ?
I suggest that if you honestly and thoroughly evaluate Giant's Causeway...and All Things are Considered...you might agree that his sales numbers (which you supplied) leave a lot to be desired (probably an understatement). They might be considered (at least to some extent) nothing short of embarrassing.
Furthermore...I suggest that when evaluating the sales figures you MUST take into account the RNA's...they can clearly helps define a stallion's marketability etc etc etc. And is arguably one place where the stallion gurus...managers (or whatever you choose to call them) cannot control everything. Except of course if they are involved in some charade to create a misleading perception...hmmm.
Sysonby...you wrote (regarding circumstances under which you might breed to GC) "if I intended to sell to Darley or Godolphin, the choice is easy."
Sysonby...respectfully...you are exposing a naivete (re: the thoroughbred game). You talk as if by breeding a nice mare to Giant's Causeway...you are guaranteed a profit ...WRONG...and that you'll have a built in buyer in Darley or Godolphin. You may have a built-in 'looker'...but NOT a built in 'buyer'. Consider this...probably many of the commercial breeders who bred their mares to GC felt the same as you do...when they signed their contracts. Reality is, MOST of those breeders took it on the chin...although a few did attract real money (including some of Ferguson's).
I've taken the liberty to mark Winner or Loser after each sale or RNA...taking into account approx production-related costs (and let's not forget all the expenses...including the commissions etc either). And Sysonby...we're not even taking into account the cost of money.
Be Honest in your evaluation...and recognize that even some of the possible financial winners might be very close calls (as to whether or not there was a profit [however small] vs a loss)...but I suggest that even a small profit in relation to a production cost (which includes ALL expenses etc related to the production of the subject weanling, yearling or two-year-old) that can arguably be in excess of a couple of hundred thousand dollars...and over a period of years...is NOT a winner.
Giant's Causeway...2004 Auction Results
Weanlings...2004
c, Beyond the Sun.........($150,000) RNA.....................................Loser
f, Danzig's Dreamer......Pleasant Hill Farm $60,000......................Loser
c, Esther Rose..............Dromoland Farm $450,000......................Winner
f, Halo America.............Robert Ogden $575,000..........................Winner
f, Lemon Dove..............Sunrise Stable $360,000.........................Winner
f, Million Stories.............Gus Bell, Agt $385,000...........................Winner
f, My Moccasin..............NeverTell Farm, LLC $110,000.................Loser
f, Rose Frances.............Fleetwood Bloodstock $325,000...............Winner
c, Sianema (GB)..........McKeever-St. Lawrence $117,142..............Loser
f, Slide........................Ashford Stud, agt. Athens $285,000...........Winner
c, Storm Fear..............($235,000) RNA........................................Loser
Giant's Causeway Yearlings...2004
c, Affirm the Gold.....Robert N. Scanlon, agt. $100,000..................Loser
c, Alaska Queen (FTSAUG84)...Team Valor $1,850,000.................Winner
f, Another..............................($95,000) RNA...............................Loser
f, Attitude................Michael S. Brown, agt. $130,000....................Loser
c, B. A. Valentine....................($190,000) RNA.............................Loser
c, B. A. Valentine....................($325,000) RNA.............................Loser
f, Baba Light...........................($55,000) RNA...............................Loser
f, Baba Light............Elisabeth H. Alexander $32,000......................Loser
c, Brightest Star (GB)..........Demi O'Byrne $468,352.....................Winner
f, Broad Smile.....................($100,000) RNA................................Loser
c, Candy Charm..................($83,039) RNA..................................Loser
f, Carsonality.........Anthony Stroud Bloodstock $50,000.................Loser
c, Chipeta Springs................($95,000) RNA.................................Loser
f, Colorado Song...Anthony Stroud Bloodstock $65,000..................Loser
c, Commodities...........Centennial Farms $350,000.......................Winner
c, Cristalline (Chi)................($15,000) RNA.................................Loser
c, Dellagrazia......................($175,543) RNA................................Loser
f, Deputy Sue....................Whitechurch Stud $340,000.............. Winner
f, Destination Mir..........Edward K. Gaylord II $50,000..................Loser
c, Doula..............Charles Egerton Bloodstock $711,895................Winner
f, Ela Athena (GB)...Anthony Stroud Bloodstock $187,204..............Loser
c, Fantasy Lake...............Paul F. I. Cole $125,000.........................Loser
f, Faralmond (Arg)...Anthony Stroud Bloodstock $100,000..............Loser
f, =Fascinating Rhythm (GB)..............($374,409) RNA......................?
c, Fountain Lake...Robert Baker and Bill Mack $825,000.................Winner
c, Freddie Frisson..............................($380,000) RNA......................?
f, Gal in a Ruckus..............................($240,000) RNA...................Loser
c, Gold From the West.......................($120,000) RNA...................Loser
c, Golden Aster...................Dogwood Stable $170,000..................Loser
f, Grand Girlfriend...............John C. Oxley $140,000.....................Loser
f, Happyanunoit (NZ)Bozzi Bloodstock Italia $18,831.....................Loser
f, Highbury (KEESEP283)..............Gainesway $250,000..................?
c, How Could You..............................($200,000) RNA..................Loser
f, Hum Along......................Donald R. Dizney $190,000.................Loser
c, Isle Go West...Robert Baker and Bill Mack $290,000..................Winner
f, June Moon (Ire)..............................($170,000) RNA..................Loser
c, La Spia..................Straightaway Farm, agt. $30,000.................Loser
c, Langoustine (Aus).............Gordon-Watson $561,613.................Winner
c, Lilac Garden..........Peter W. Chapple-Hyam $46,835..................Loser
c, Lily O'Gold.......................Ben Glass, agt. $425,000..................Winner
f, Louve Mysterieuse................Paul Webber $300,000..................Winner
f, Lovat's Lady..........................C & R Stable $42,000..................Loser
f, Misty Moon (Brz)..................R. D. Hubbard $50,000..................Loser
c, Music House................J. Howard Johnson $569,677..................Winner
f, Northern Pageant......................Firestone $240,000...................Loser
c, Oscillate.........................................($65,000) RNA..................Loser
c, Overturned........................Demi O'Byrne $700,000..................Winner
f, Palacoona (Fr)................Atoka Bloodstock $335,000.................Winner
f, Panama Canal................;NW Management $600,000.................Winner
c, Pharma..........................................($65,000) RNA..................Loser
c, President's Girl...............B. Wayne Hughes $750,000................Winner
c, Prospective...........................John Warren $140,000.................Loser
f, Rajmata.................G. Watts Humphrey Jr. $425,000.................Winner
f, Rare Blend....................................($240,000) RNA..................Loser
f, Ravnina..........................George Krikorian $260,000.................?
f, Realm................................Mikki Tsuge $250,000......................?
c, Resurge..............................John C. Oxley $375,000................Winner
c, Roza Robata...............Dale L. Romans, agt. $255,000................?
c, Rusty Back...................................($170,903) RNA.................Loser
c, Sculpture...........John Ferguson Bloodstock $400,000................Winner
c, Serape...............John Ferguson Bloodstock $875,000...............Winner
c, Shoppingwithbetty.........................($150,000) RNA.................Loser
c, Show Me the Stage..................Cam Allard $330,000................Winner
c, Shy Princess........................BBA (Ireland) $229,956...............Loser
c, Smokey Mirage....John Ferguson Bloodstock $1,000,000...........Winner
f, Special Mistress........................Gainesway $240,000...............Loser
c, Statuette..............................Demi O'Byrne $1,150,000...........Winner
f, Successfully................Kathryn M. Nikkel, agt. $110,000...........Loser
c, Sweeping Story.......John Ferguson Bloodstock $800,000..........Winner
c, Sweet Times (GB).............................($93,602) RNA...............Loser
c, Takesmybreathaway................Demi O'Byrne $600,000...........Winner
f, Technicolour (Ire)...Narvick International, agt. $200,000...........Loser
f, Theme (Ire)...............................Marco Bozzi $105,000............Loser
c, Theoretically.....................La Bahia Stud Inc. $243,365...........Loser
c, Til Forbid........................Willliam Entenmann $100,000............Loser
f, Tomorrow's Song...................Winsong Farms $180,000...........Loser
f, Touch of Greatness.....Reynolds Bell Jr., agt. $1,050,000..........Winner
c, Twigazuri................................Demi O'Byrne $600,000...........Winner
f, Veil of Avalon..........Anthony Stroud Bloodstock $27,000...........Loser
f, Victorious Lil...........................Robert Mitchell $200,000............Loser
c, Vogue Star (Arg).........John T.L. Jones Jr., agt. $60,000...........Loser
c, With a Twist.........................NW Management $300,000..........Winner
c, Won't She Tell......................Lansdon Robbins $270,000............?
f, Wood of Binn..................Waterwild Farm, agt. $200,000..........Loser
c, Woodland Orchid (Ire)............Gordon-Watson $224,809..........Loser
f, Woodyousmileforme............................($121,682) RNA...........Loser
Giant's Causeway Two-year-olds...2004
c, Angelica Tree.....................................($145,000) RNA.............Loser
c, Anna Sterz................................Michael J. Gill $60,000.............Loser
c, Antique Pearl (Ire)..............................($190,000) RNA.............Loser
f, Courtesane..........................................($20,000) RNA..............Loser
c, =Fernanda (GB)......................Gordon-Watson $98,059............Loser
f, Missy's Mirage...................J. S. Company Ltd. $200,000............Loser
c, Pleasant Performer..West Point Thoroughbreds $155,000...........Loser
c, Seeta (GB)..........................................($195,000) RNA............Loser
f, =Urgent Liaison (Ire)......Murayama Bloodstock $274,567.............?
c, =Wildwood Flower (GB)..Anthony Stroud Bloodstock $274,567......?
c, Wind Silence......Thoroughbred Bloodstock Service $225,000......Loser
Sysonby...respectfully...if you will honestly take the time to crunch the numbers, I expect you'll realize how ridiculous GC's current stud fee...$200,000...is.
Don't allow yourself to be fooled.
Respectfully
FOS, really, what is the point of all this?
Everyone here knows that you hate Giant's Causeway. Is there any reason that you feel obliged to continually hit us over the head with that fact?
There are probably fewer than a handful of people here that could afford to breed to the horse anyway and the ones in that position aren't going to be swayed by your severely biased, one-sided, arguments.
For the record--re your chart of LOSERS above--if I paid a 115K stud fee and sold a yearling for between 200 and 250K, I would not have taken a loss, except under very unusual circumstances.
Everyone here knows that you hate Giant's Causeway. Is there any reason that you feel obliged to continually hit us over the head with that fact?
There are probably fewer than a handful of people here that could afford to breed to the horse anyway and the ones in that position aren't going to be swayed by your severely biased, one-sided, arguments.
For the record--re your chart of LOSERS above--if I paid a 115K stud fee and sold a yearling for between 200 and 250K, I would not have taken a loss, except under very unusual circumstances.
hi LSB
You ask "Everyone here knows that you hate Giant's Causeway. Is there any reason that you feel obliged to continually hit us over the head with that fact?"
You also wrote "There are probably fewer than a handful of people here that could afford to breed to the horse anyway and the ones in that position aren't going to be swayed by your severely biased, one-sided, arguments."
LSB...there may be only "a handful of people here that could afford to breed to (Giant's Causeway) anyway" (your words)...but I suggest that he's a perfect example NOT to ignore, but to learn from...re: an overpriced and underachieving stallion. What better example (in the northern hemisphere) than GC?
You might be correct in your assessment that few "here" "could afford to breed to the horse." Fair enough...but I am concerned about the less financially independent breeder that is hoping to make some money in this game (while at the same time hopefully breeding a good horse). With that in mind...I suggest that the sometimes cavalier attitude (that many here seem to express re: such a significant stud fee expenditure)...and the chances to recoup it (much less make money) concerns me. I'm concerned more for the less financially independent breeder(s)...than the extravagently wealthy ones...those that the price of a stud fee (regardless of amount) is of little or no consequence whatsoever.
I suggest that highlighting, so much that is ridiculous about GC (in relation to his $200,000 plus tax stud fee)...is important for ALL breeders (particularly the less financially independent ones) to recognize. For that reason I continue to reference and expose GC's weaknesses (which are necessary in an honest evaluation process). His strengths are admirable...but his all-too-often-ignored weaknesses must be acknowledged and seriously considered. GC is defining himself...not me...so don't blame the messenger.
Some might say that GC (and his management) is a microcosm (or reflection) of our culture (much less the thoroughbred industry). I suggest that exposing what some might consider wrong about something should not necessarily be viewed as "biased"...or "one sided" (your words)...but rather informative...sometimes critical...and honest and always open for discussion.
Regarding your comment "Everyone here knows that you hate Giant's Causeway..." LSB...not only is that wrong...but also, I have NEVER said that...and won't now. Regardless...what I express are opinions based on information...observations...evaluations etc. GC was a wonderful racehorse that...All Things Considered...is (I suggest) Ridiculously Overpriced as a sire (northern hemisphere anyway).
Everyone is certainly entitled to their opinions...but LSB, you might agree there is only one set of facts...don't you agree that those are what we should search out...so that we're not just flying by the seats of our pants? From those facts we distill truth. That is why I strongly recommend that in this wonderful world of thoroughbreds...All Things Must Be Considered in the evaluation process.
Certainly circumstances and info can evolve (which can shed light [for better or worse] on the topic at hand)...but striving for complete, honest and thorough information (including stats) is vital if breeders intend to make informed decisions.
I suggest that GC is one of the best examples of a young...overpriced sire (All Things Considered) I've seen in years. Probably a good example (considering the hype...spin...advertising...promotion etc) for breeders to study and observe. I suggest he might be considered a modern day example of style over substance.
Beware...don't be fooled.
Best to you.
Respectfully
You ask "Everyone here knows that you hate Giant's Causeway. Is there any reason that you feel obliged to continually hit us over the head with that fact?"
You also wrote "There are probably fewer than a handful of people here that could afford to breed to the horse anyway and the ones in that position aren't going to be swayed by your severely biased, one-sided, arguments."
LSB...there may be only "a handful of people here that could afford to breed to (Giant's Causeway) anyway" (your words)...but I suggest that he's a perfect example NOT to ignore, but to learn from...re: an overpriced and underachieving stallion. What better example (in the northern hemisphere) than GC?
You might be correct in your assessment that few "here" "could afford to breed to the horse." Fair enough...but I am concerned about the less financially independent breeder that is hoping to make some money in this game (while at the same time hopefully breeding a good horse). With that in mind...I suggest that the sometimes cavalier attitude (that many here seem to express re: such a significant stud fee expenditure)...and the chances to recoup it (much less make money) concerns me. I'm concerned more for the less financially independent breeder(s)...than the extravagently wealthy ones...those that the price of a stud fee (regardless of amount) is of little or no consequence whatsoever.
I suggest that highlighting, so much that is ridiculous about GC (in relation to his $200,000 plus tax stud fee)...is important for ALL breeders (particularly the less financially independent ones) to recognize. For that reason I continue to reference and expose GC's weaknesses (which are necessary in an honest evaluation process). His strengths are admirable...but his all-too-often-ignored weaknesses must be acknowledged and seriously considered. GC is defining himself...not me...so don't blame the messenger.
Some might say that GC (and his management) is a microcosm (or reflection) of our culture (much less the thoroughbred industry). I suggest that exposing what some might consider wrong about something should not necessarily be viewed as "biased"...or "one sided" (your words)...but rather informative...sometimes critical...and honest and always open for discussion.
Regarding your comment "Everyone here knows that you hate Giant's Causeway..." LSB...not only is that wrong...but also, I have NEVER said that...and won't now. Regardless...what I express are opinions based on information...observations...evaluations etc. GC was a wonderful racehorse that...All Things Considered...is (I suggest) Ridiculously Overpriced as a sire (northern hemisphere anyway).
Everyone is certainly entitled to their opinions...but LSB, you might agree there is only one set of facts...don't you agree that those are what we should search out...so that we're not just flying by the seats of our pants? From those facts we distill truth. That is why I strongly recommend that in this wonderful world of thoroughbreds...All Things Must Be Considered in the evaluation process.
Certainly circumstances and info can evolve (which can shed light [for better or worse] on the topic at hand)...but striving for complete, honest and thorough information (including stats) is vital if breeders intend to make informed decisions.
I suggest that GC is one of the best examples of a young...overpriced sire (All Things Considered) I've seen in years. Probably a good example (considering the hype...spin...advertising...promotion etc) for breeders to study and observe. I suggest he might be considered a modern day example of style over substance.
Beware...don't be fooled.
Best to you.
Respectfully
FOS wrote:... I am concerned about the less financially independent breeder that is hoping to make some money in this game (while at the same time hopefully breeding a good horse). With that in mind...I suggest that the sometimes cavalier attitude (that many here seem to express re: such a significant stud fee expenditure)...and the chances to recoup it (much less make money) concerns me.
Fair enough. How about a discussion of some other stallions you don't think are worth their stud fees? Or maybe one about stallions (besides Successful Appeal) that you admire?
I may be wrong, but offhand I can't think of anyone on this board who has bred to Giant's Causeway. Which is why it's easy for us to be cavalier--we're not spending the money, merely discussing the horse's strengths.
FOS wrote:I suggest that exposing what some might consider wrong about something should not necessarily be viewed as "biased"...or "one sided" (your words)...but rather informative...sometimes critical...and honest and always open for discussion.
Perhaps, but exposing it again and again and again and again might also be viewed as obsessive.
Hi everone Myself I look at these posts from FOS as leg work I don't have to due, if I was considering breeding for sales. Myself I could pay the stud fee, but I won't, to much of a gamble for to large of price, 200,000.00 is not easy to come by for me. Besides If I was mind set on breading to gc it wound probley happen anyway. I'm sure if you had a certain stallion you wanted to breed to and some strong points were givin why not to most folks would aknoledge there facts then do what they wanted to do anyway most do...It's all just infomation. .....
onalimb
hi LSB
You wrote "For the record--re your chart of LOSERS above--if I paid a 115K stud fee and sold a yearling for between 200 and 250K, I would not have taken a loss, except under very unusual circumstances."
Respectfully LSB...seems like your premise might overlook or discount some very important costs...expenses etc. For starters...the yearlings of 2004 were produced based on the 2002 stud fee of $135,000...not $115,000 as you reference. But even if the production cost was based on the approx US$115,000 stud fee (while GC stood in Ireland in 2001)...and you shipped your mare to Ireland to be bred to him in 2001...consider this. Stud fee approx US$115,000...round trip travel, quarantine and airfare approx $13,500+-...board and vet in Ireland (you can estimate that). Stud fee due and payable October 1st (and non-refundable). Insurance to cover the fetus (when the stud fee became due and non-refundable) at approx 12% on $135,000 is approx $16,000 etc etc etc. Would you have left yourself exposed to such a possible loss...without insurance? And we're just talking insurance related to the foal, not the mare. You do the math...looks like approx $144,500 to me (not including board and vet etc in Ireland).
Now let's make a list of some of the costs and expenses* (whatever) to produce that foal and ultimately (hopefully) get it through the sales ring as a yearling. For calculation's sake I'll use the GC stud fee of 2002...which resulted in yearlings of 2004...but if you prefer we can use the 2001 stud fee (and expenses).
$135,000...stud fee 2002 (for a yearling of 2004)
...$8,100...sales tax
...$8,000...insurance on the foal from birth (lets say March 2003) thru Sept 2004...3 1/2%+- on $150,000
.$22,500...30 months board at $25 day (conception thru sale of ylg)
...$3,000...veterinary
...$5,000...misc (horse trans, blacksmith, halters, sales and misc expenses etc etc etc)
.......700...BC nom and foal reg
.$21,000...sales commissions-approx (based on a $225,000 sale)
$203,300 total costs, expenses (approx)...to produce the sales yearling by GC. *Costs and expenses etc certainly might vary.
Now LSB...for discussion's sake how about if we value the mare you might have bred to GC at $125,000 at the time you bred her (although certainly many in GC's book were worth and/or cost lots more than $125,000, although arguably some would have cost or been worth less). And also for discussion's sake can we consider that your mare can be expected to produce another 6 foals? Using those numbers, let's take the mare's supposed value ($125,000) and divide it by the 6 foals we are expecting she should be able to produce...thus amortizing the mare based on 1/6th of $125,000...approx $21,000. You can obviously plug in the appropriate numbers relating to your mare's value and useful life...and amortize her accordingly. This is not an depreciation exercise related to your accounting practices...but rather an attempt to put an honest number on the cost of using her for one year of her life.
Now if you take the $203,300 total costs from above (which arguably might vary to some degree)...and now add the $21,000 to the costs...I submit that to get the resultant GC foal thru an August Fasig or September 2004 Keeneland sale will cost approx $225,000.
Voila...selling a yearling for $200,000 to $250,000 (as you wrote) is a Loser as far as I'm concerned. No smoke and mirrors...and I suggest the costs (in many cases) might be higher than calculated above.
It's also clear that many GC's were unacceptable to scrutinizing buyers...clearly some of the RNA's raise very legitimate concerns. The dollar figures at which many of the RNA's were hammered down at are disturbingly low. Even some of the sales prices are very disturbing.
Now...as we know...his stud fee is $200,000 (plus tax)...the bar has been raised...and the threshold to even breakeven is more difficult than ever too reach.
Beware.
Best to you always.
Respectfully
You wrote "For the record--re your chart of LOSERS above--if I paid a 115K stud fee and sold a yearling for between 200 and 250K, I would not have taken a loss, except under very unusual circumstances."
Respectfully LSB...seems like your premise might overlook or discount some very important costs...expenses etc. For starters...the yearlings of 2004 were produced based on the 2002 stud fee of $135,000...not $115,000 as you reference. But even if the production cost was based on the approx US$115,000 stud fee (while GC stood in Ireland in 2001)...and you shipped your mare to Ireland to be bred to him in 2001...consider this. Stud fee approx US$115,000...round trip travel, quarantine and airfare approx $13,500+-...board and vet in Ireland (you can estimate that). Stud fee due and payable October 1st (and non-refundable). Insurance to cover the fetus (when the stud fee became due and non-refundable) at approx 12% on $135,000 is approx $16,000 etc etc etc. Would you have left yourself exposed to such a possible loss...without insurance? And we're just talking insurance related to the foal, not the mare. You do the math...looks like approx $144,500 to me (not including board and vet etc in Ireland).
Now let's make a list of some of the costs and expenses* (whatever) to produce that foal and ultimately (hopefully) get it through the sales ring as a yearling. For calculation's sake I'll use the GC stud fee of 2002...which resulted in yearlings of 2004...but if you prefer we can use the 2001 stud fee (and expenses).
$135,000...stud fee 2002 (for a yearling of 2004)
...$8,100...sales tax
...$8,000...insurance on the foal from birth (lets say March 2003) thru Sept 2004...3 1/2%+- on $150,000
.$22,500...30 months board at $25 day (conception thru sale of ylg)
...$3,000...veterinary
...$5,000...misc (horse trans, blacksmith, halters, sales and misc expenses etc etc etc)
.......700...BC nom and foal reg
.$21,000...sales commissions-approx (based on a $225,000 sale)
$203,300 total costs, expenses (approx)...to produce the sales yearling by GC. *Costs and expenses etc certainly might vary.
Now LSB...for discussion's sake how about if we value the mare you might have bred to GC at $125,000 at the time you bred her (although certainly many in GC's book were worth and/or cost lots more than $125,000, although arguably some would have cost or been worth less). And also for discussion's sake can we consider that your mare can be expected to produce another 6 foals? Using those numbers, let's take the mare's supposed value ($125,000) and divide it by the 6 foals we are expecting she should be able to produce...thus amortizing the mare based on 1/6th of $125,000...approx $21,000. You can obviously plug in the appropriate numbers relating to your mare's value and useful life...and amortize her accordingly. This is not an depreciation exercise related to your accounting practices...but rather an attempt to put an honest number on the cost of using her for one year of her life.
Now if you take the $203,300 total costs from above (which arguably might vary to some degree)...and now add the $21,000 to the costs...I submit that to get the resultant GC foal thru an August Fasig or September 2004 Keeneland sale will cost approx $225,000.
Voila...selling a yearling for $200,000 to $250,000 (as you wrote) is a Loser as far as I'm concerned. No smoke and mirrors...and I suggest the costs (in many cases) might be higher than calculated above.
It's also clear that many GC's were unacceptable to scrutinizing buyers...clearly some of the RNA's raise very legitimate concerns. The dollar figures at which many of the RNA's were hammered down at are disturbingly low. Even some of the sales prices are very disturbing.
Now...as we know...his stud fee is $200,000 (plus tax)...the bar has been raised...and the threshold to even breakeven is more difficult than ever too reach.
Beware.
Best to you always.
Respectfully
Re: Don't Be Fooled...Even Some of the Time
FOS wrote:hi guys
Read closely...there will be test.
Top 4 LEADING SECOND-CROP SIRES BY LIFETIME EARNINGS*
Rank......Sire..................Foals.......%Winners...%SW......Earnings
1......Giant's Causeway.....244............14.............2........$3,952,391
2......Montjeu (Ire)............101............28.............6........$3,884,657
3......Successful Appeal.......63............35...........10........$2,718,539
4......Fusaichi Pegasus.......172............17.............5........$2,675,465
*stats...Bloodstock Research 6/20/2005
Now...let's play Three Questions:
1/ Which Top 4 Leading Second-Crop Sire has the largest number of Foals? hmmm.
2/ Which Top 4 Leading Second-Crop Sire has the lowest % of Winners? hmmm.
3/ Which Top 4 Leading Second-Crop Sire has the lowest % of SW's? hmmm.
We've got a unanimous winner !
And the lucky contestants can breed (northern hemisphere) to this wonder-sire for a mere US$200,000 (plus tax of course)...what a bargain.
Who was it that said you can fool some of the people some of the time?
Respectfully
Hey FOS! You've just proven that QUANTITY does not win out over QUALITY. Guess the big, wealthy breeders will have to come up with a new way to beat the odds
Giant's Causeway Avg. Progeny earnings per the stats above $16,198 ( 
Help...I've fallen and can't get up )
Would sure be interesting to be able to analyze whether or not the quantity approach watered down the quality and vigor of genes passed on, as Horsenuts has been suggesting.
FOS wrote:hi LSB
You wrote "For the record--re your chart of LOSERS above--if I paid a 115K stud fee and sold a yearling for between 200 and 250K, I would not have taken a loss, except under very unusual circumstances."
Respectfully LSB...seems like your premise might overlook or discount some very important costs...expenses etc. For starters...the yearlings of 2004 were produced based on the 2002 stud fee of $135,000...not $115,000 as you reference. But even if the production cost was based on the approx US$115,000 stud fee (while GC stood in Ireland in 2001)...and you shipped your mare to Ireland to be bred to him in 2001...consider this. Stud fee approx US$115,000...round trip travel, quarantine and airfare approx $13,500+-...board and vet in Ireland (you can estimate that). Stud fee due and payable October 1st (and non-refundable). Insurance to cover the fetus (when the stud fee became due and non-refundable) at approx 12% on $135,000 is approx $16,000 etc etc etc. Would you have left yourself exposed to such a possible loss...without insurance? And we're just talking insurance related to the foal, not the mare. You do the math...looks like approx $144,500 to me (not including board and vet etc in Ireland).
Now let's make a list of some of the costs and expenses* (whatever) to produce that foal and ultimately (hopefully) get it through the sales ring as a yearling. For calculation's sake I'll use the GC stud fee of 2002...which resulted in yearlings of 2004...but if you prefer we can use the 2001 stud fee (and expenses).
$135,000...stud fee 2002 (for a yearling of 2004)
...$8,100...sales tax
...$8,000...insurance on the foal from birth (lets say March 2003) thru Sept 2004...3 1/2%+- on $150,000
.$22,500...30 months board at $25 day (conception thru sale of ylg)
...$3,000...veterinary
...$5,000...misc (horse trans, blacksmith, halters, sales and misc expenses etc etc etc)
.......700...BC nom and foal reg
.$21,000...sales commissions-approx (based on a $225,000 sale)
$203,300 total costs, expenses (approx)...to produce the sales yearling by GC. *Costs and expenses etc certainly might vary.
Now LSB...for discussion's sake how about if we value the mare you might have bred to GC at $125,000 at the time you bred her (although certainly many in GC's book were worth and/or cost lots more than $125,000, although arguably some would have cost or been worth less). And also for discussion's sake can we consider that your mare can be expected to produce another 6 foals? Using those numbers, let's take the mare's supposed value ($125,000) and divide it by the 6 foals we are expecting she should be able to produce...thus amortizing the mare based on 1/6th of $125,000...approx $21,000. You can obviously plug in the appropriate numbers relating to your mare's value and useful life...and amortize her accordingly. This is not an depreciation exercise related to your accounting practices...but rather an attempt to put an honest number on the cost of using her for one year of her life.
Now if you take the $203,300 total costs from above (which arguably might vary to some degree)...and now add the $21,000 to the costs...I submit that to get the resultant GC foal thru an August Fasig or September 2004 Keeneland sale will cost approx $225,000.
Voila...selling a yearling for $200,000 to $250,000 (as you wrote) is a Loser as far as I'm concerned. No smoke and mirrors...and I suggest the costs (in many cases) might be higher than calculated above.
It's also clear that many GC's were unacceptable to scrutinizing buyers...clearly some of the RNA's raise very legitimate concerns. The dollar figures at which many of the RNA's were hammered down at are disturbingly low. Even some of the sales prices are very disturbing.
Now...as we know...his stud fee is $200,000 (plus tax)...the bar has been raised...and the threshold to even breakeven is more difficult than ever too reach.
Beware.
Best to you always.
Respectfully
Nice work FOS. Agree with your analysis. Might also add the value of many of these broodmares being bred to GC and others like him. Many are valued in the 100s of thousands of dollars so if said offspring only brings $225,000-$250,000 then as a seller you are really taking a "bad bath".
This same analysis can be applied to $2,500-$5,000 studs and their offspring. If you breed to a modestly priced stallion you still need to sell the resulting foal for at least $20,000 as a yearling to make it anywhere close to a worthwhile venture. You have nearly 3 years time invested in each yearling if sold in a fall sale. First hauling mare to a stallion/11+ month gestation period/ 1 1/2 years til yearling can be sold etc.
This all shows how difficult this game is in regards to keeping one's head above water. Whether playing at the upper echelon or as a regional breeder. When you raise a foal and yet can't recoup what you have invested in them at a sale.. well... And this scenario happens more often than not.
hi LSB
Apologies if it's a bore.
You wrote "I may be wrong, but offhand I can't think of anyone on this board who has bred to Giant's Causeway. Which is why it's easy for us to be cavalier--we're not spending the money, merely discussing the horse's strengths."
Fair enough...but a red flag goes up when I see style (to a large degree) prevail over substance...and a horse's obvious weaknesses (as a sire) seem to be ignored (at least to some extent). And a stallion standing for $200,000 that is arguably ridiculously overpriced seems to be a perfect example to critique...and learn from.
I suggest it usually takes no genius to see the great-stuff...but in the evaluation process the not-so-good stuff is arguably as important (and even moreso sometimes) than the good or great stuff.
I look forward to discussing many other stallions.
Best to you always.
Respectfully
Apologies if it's a bore.
You wrote "I may be wrong, but offhand I can't think of anyone on this board who has bred to Giant's Causeway. Which is why it's easy for us to be cavalier--we're not spending the money, merely discussing the horse's strengths."
Fair enough...but a red flag goes up when I see style (to a large degree) prevail over substance...and a horse's obvious weaknesses (as a sire) seem to be ignored (at least to some extent). And a stallion standing for $200,000 that is arguably ridiculously overpriced seems to be a perfect example to critique...and learn from.
I suggest it usually takes no genius to see the great-stuff...but in the evaluation process the not-so-good stuff is arguably as important (and even moreso sometimes) than the good or great stuff.
I look forward to discussing many other stallions.
Best to you always.
Respectfully
Question:
How long will the sellers of any high-priced (financial loser) foals, be able to fool the buying public? So much wasted money could be put to so much better use, IMO. I'm not just talking Giant's Causway. This thread belongs in the "Do The Math" thread. That is the point, as far as I am concerned, with watering down the gene pool being right up there as well, with these absurd number of breedings to these stallions.
How long will the sellers of any high-priced (financial loser) foals, be able to fool the buying public? So much wasted money could be put to so much better use, IMO. I'm not just talking Giant's Causway. This thread belongs in the "Do The Math" thread. That is the point, as far as I am concerned, with watering down the gene pool being right up there as well, with these absurd number of breedings to these stallions.