Eurosilver has been retired with a leg injury. I've been watching this one since the last spring KD preps.
http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/todaysnews/newsview.asp?recno=56674&subsec=2
Any speculations? (Where and how much?)
Laurie
Eurosilver is Done
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn
Eurosilver is Done
So many pedigrees...so little time. (C)
Aww, I was so happy when he won the Whitney. He was my early pick for the Derby, but I was (thankfully) talked out of playing him in the future bets.
He's close up in the female family of Bravo Bull, ISU's thoroughbred stallion (his dam, Brave Raj, is Eurosilver's second dam) so I was just hoping and praying he'd win the Derby, no such luck.
~Adrienne
He's close up in the female family of Bravo Bull, ISU's thoroughbred stallion (his dam, Brave Raj, is Eurosilver's second dam) so I was just hoping and praying he'd win the Derby, no such luck.
~Adrienne
hi ZiaLand...hi adrienne
Interesting...the report that Eurosilver has been retired.
Brisnet.com reported the following on Sunday Aug 14, 2005...
..."On the New York worktab
Stephen Foster H. (G1) runner-up EUROSILVER (Unbridled's Song) stopped the timer in :49 3/5 for four panels."
hmmm.
Respectfully
Interesting...the report that Eurosilver has been retired.
Brisnet.com reported the following on Sunday Aug 14, 2005...
..."On the New York worktab
Stephen Foster H. (G1) runner-up EUROSILVER (Unbridled's Song) stopped the timer in :49 3/5 for four panels."
hmmm.
Respectfully
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roving boy
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roving boy
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hi guys
Eurosilver won the Breeders Futurity-G2 at age two, he Never won a G1.
Regardless...if he's done...he'd be retiring on the heels of Songandaprayer's (G1 winner by Unbridled's Song) current success (right out of the box) as a Freshman sire. That could add some strength to the case to be made that Eurosilver should have some genuine market appeal as a young stallion.
Assuming that Eurosilver looks the part and will stand up to serious scrutiny, I expect that $7,500 to $12,500 would be a reasonable range to consider as his initial stud fee...but certainly many considerations must be taken into account......before setting the stud fee. I suggest that if he can stand up to serious scrutiny (in the flesh), makes an outstanding first impression and is near flawless...and he is in the hands of and stands at a TOP stallion facility...that will advertise, promote and market him exceptionally well...even $15,000 is possible...but it would surprise me if that's the number (at the outset anyway).
I expect that $7,500 would sound like a bargain...$8,500 would still have lots of appeal...$10,000 sounds like it would probably be considered by many to be good value...$12,500 might turn too many people away (and off)...and $15,000 might be too in-your-face.
He's an interesting prospect and I expect that $10,000-Live could be a number that all parties might ultimately agree upon.
Respectfully.
Eurosilver won the Breeders Futurity-G2 at age two, he Never won a G1.
Regardless...if he's done...he'd be retiring on the heels of Songandaprayer's (G1 winner by Unbridled's Song) current success (right out of the box) as a Freshman sire. That could add some strength to the case to be made that Eurosilver should have some genuine market appeal as a young stallion.
Assuming that Eurosilver looks the part and will stand up to serious scrutiny, I expect that $7,500 to $12,500 would be a reasonable range to consider as his initial stud fee...but certainly many considerations must be taken into account......before setting the stud fee. I suggest that if he can stand up to serious scrutiny (in the flesh), makes an outstanding first impression and is near flawless...and he is in the hands of and stands at a TOP stallion facility...that will advertise, promote and market him exceptionally well...even $15,000 is possible...but it would surprise me if that's the number (at the outset anyway).
I expect that $7,500 would sound like a bargain...$8,500 would still have lots of appeal...$10,000 sounds like it would probably be considered by many to be good value...$12,500 might turn too many people away (and off)...and $15,000 might be too in-your-face.
He's an interesting prospect and I expect that $10,000-Live could be a number that all parties might ultimately agree upon.
Respectfully.
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roving boy
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hi roving boy
They might be looking for $4mil for 100% of Eurosilver, but I seriously doubt that number can be pulled off. If he were a G1 winner that could make all the difference...but he is not.
I suggest it's possible that Buckram Oak (owners) could sell 25% (for example) of Eurosilver to a major farm for $1mil (which would then value the horse at $4mil). In that case though, the standing farm would be entitiled to not only their 25% portion of seasons and/or income (related to the stallion), but would also receive annual farm breedings (which often numbers eight).
The eight farm seasons would sweeten and possibly justify a 25% purchase price for $1mil, and I expect that the horse could stand for and work at $10,000 (that is if everything went right). By everything went right, I suggest...if Eurosilver has breeding qualities extraordinaire and could easily cover well in excess of 100 mares (probably closer to 150 would be ideal)...and/or he could successfully stand for dual hemisphere service, $1mil for 25% could be justified and possibly $4mil for the whole horse could be justified. I suggest that making a northern hemisphere deal based on those numbers and expectations is risky though (to say the least). Maybe the Seller could convince an experienced Buyer that $4mil for Eurosilver is good value...but without assurances or guarantees (as to performance) from the Seller, I'd find that hard to believe.
Another possibility is that a deal where equine assets were being traded (possibly along with some cash) could possibly work to make (what appears to be anyway) a $4mil deal. Example: 'shares' that a prospective Buyer has in another stallion (or stallions) could be traded if the Seller is willing to do so. If the share values are inflated in horse A, and they are to be traded for an interest in horse B, whose value is also inflated...voila. Any number of scenarios could be created if the parties agree to do so.
But I suggest that a real northern hemisphere deal at $4mil cash (plus, plus, plus) for 100% of Eurosilver, is quite high risk (for a Buyer)...and highly unlikely.
Obviously the stallion's connections can stand him for whatever stud fee they choose, but I suggest that to fill a HUGE book at $15,000 (to justify a $4mil cash expenditure...plus expenses, insurance and carrying charges etc) would be difficult (probably an understatement) to accomplish.
I submit that Eurosilver is simply NOT worth that kind of money (as a straight cash deal)...not now anyway.
I suggest that the Seller could rationalize and make a case for his Eurosilver being worth every bit of $4mil...but I expect that a knowledgeable (and experienced) Buyer would have a difficult time justifying it. I suggest that the way to go (particularly for the Buyer) is justify...not rationalize.
I expect there'll be some middle ground that will ultimately be agreed upon if owner Buckram Oak wants to genuinely sell Eurosilver, if not...he might ultimately stand at stud for the account of Buckram Oak. That being said, I expect a TOP stallion facility would not be party to such an arrangement (in which they did not have an ownership interest or some meaningful option to purchase).
It'll be interesting to see how it all unfolds.
Respectfully
They might be looking for $4mil for 100% of Eurosilver, but I seriously doubt that number can be pulled off. If he were a G1 winner that could make all the difference...but he is not.
I suggest it's possible that Buckram Oak (owners) could sell 25% (for example) of Eurosilver to a major farm for $1mil (which would then value the horse at $4mil). In that case though, the standing farm would be entitiled to not only their 25% portion of seasons and/or income (related to the stallion), but would also receive annual farm breedings (which often numbers eight).
The eight farm seasons would sweeten and possibly justify a 25% purchase price for $1mil, and I expect that the horse could stand for and work at $10,000 (that is if everything went right). By everything went right, I suggest...if Eurosilver has breeding qualities extraordinaire and could easily cover well in excess of 100 mares (probably closer to 150 would be ideal)...and/or he could successfully stand for dual hemisphere service, $1mil for 25% could be justified and possibly $4mil for the whole horse could be justified. I suggest that making a northern hemisphere deal based on those numbers and expectations is risky though (to say the least). Maybe the Seller could convince an experienced Buyer that $4mil for Eurosilver is good value...but without assurances or guarantees (as to performance) from the Seller, I'd find that hard to believe.
Another possibility is that a deal where equine assets were being traded (possibly along with some cash) could possibly work to make (what appears to be anyway) a $4mil deal. Example: 'shares' that a prospective Buyer has in another stallion (or stallions) could be traded if the Seller is willing to do so. If the share values are inflated in horse A, and they are to be traded for an interest in horse B, whose value is also inflated...voila. Any number of scenarios could be created if the parties agree to do so.
But I suggest that a real northern hemisphere deal at $4mil cash (plus, plus, plus) for 100% of Eurosilver, is quite high risk (for a Buyer)...and highly unlikely.
Obviously the stallion's connections can stand him for whatever stud fee they choose, but I suggest that to fill a HUGE book at $15,000 (to justify a $4mil cash expenditure...plus expenses, insurance and carrying charges etc) would be difficult (probably an understatement) to accomplish.
I submit that Eurosilver is simply NOT worth that kind of money (as a straight cash deal)...not now anyway.
I suggest that the Seller could rationalize and make a case for his Eurosilver being worth every bit of $4mil...but I expect that a knowledgeable (and experienced) Buyer would have a difficult time justifying it. I suggest that the way to go (particularly for the Buyer) is justify...not rationalize.
I expect there'll be some middle ground that will ultimately be agreed upon if owner Buckram Oak wants to genuinely sell Eurosilver, if not...he might ultimately stand at stud for the account of Buckram Oak. That being said, I expect a TOP stallion facility would not be party to such an arrangement (in which they did not have an ownership interest or some meaningful option to purchase).
It'll be interesting to see how it all unfolds.
Respectfully
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roving boy
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FOS, I agree with your general commentary that $4mm is too much. All your scenarios are real possibilities but as you say, only the Southern Hemisphere can make $4mm a palatable number.
Buckram Oak wants to retain 4 shares (10% in a 40 share syndicate) and 10 breeding rights....the standing farm would probably have 6 breeding rights (possibly as many as
, 1 BR for the Breeders Cup, 1 for the trainer - suddenly you are looking at 16-18 breeding rights and 40 regular nominations, so a regular book of 56-58 mares.
Lets assume the horse is valued at $4mm and it is a 40 share syndicate - no markup puts shares at $100,000 each.
If the horse breeds 120 mares, gets 90 live foals, then that leaves ~ 42 seasons in the expense pool (@$10,000 each ~ $420,000) (@ $15,000 each ~ $650,000. If you are a shareholder you get your regular nomination plus either a bonus season or a pro-rata share of the expense pool. Assuming the shareholder gets his mare in foal and takes a pro-rata share of the expense pool, the shareholder receives an annual benefit of roughly $31,000 ($15,000 for his regular nomination plus $16,000 from the expense pool). The shareholder would break even on his investment (share price) after 4 years (advertising & board costing roughly $3500/share/year.
If we assume a $10,000 fee then break even is after 6 years.
As most people want to be "out on the horse" before his first 2 year olds hit the track, the above scenarios do not work without Southern Hemisphere income. I am not saying that Eurosilver at $4mm cannot be done, but the syndicate manager selling those shares would have to be a darn good salesman that is not worried about making anything (markup) for his efforts.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out, particularly as there is a growing concern among stallion managers that fees are too high. But there have been some other deals done recently that I would not have touched. But if he is the 1 out of 10 that make it as a stallion, then of course hindsight will show $mm to be a deal!
Best regards.
Buckram Oak wants to retain 4 shares (10% in a 40 share syndicate) and 10 breeding rights....the standing farm would probably have 6 breeding rights (possibly as many as
, 1 BR for the Breeders Cup, 1 for the trainer - suddenly you are looking at 16-18 breeding rights and 40 regular nominations, so a regular book of 56-58 mares.
Lets assume the horse is valued at $4mm and it is a 40 share syndicate - no markup puts shares at $100,000 each.
If the horse breeds 120 mares, gets 90 live foals, then that leaves ~ 42 seasons in the expense pool (@$10,000 each ~ $420,000) (@ $15,000 each ~ $650,000. If you are a shareholder you get your regular nomination plus either a bonus season or a pro-rata share of the expense pool. Assuming the shareholder gets his mare in foal and takes a pro-rata share of the expense pool, the shareholder receives an annual benefit of roughly $31,000 ($15,000 for his regular nomination plus $16,000 from the expense pool). The shareholder would break even on his investment (share price) after 4 years (advertising & board costing roughly $3500/share/year.
If we assume a $10,000 fee then break even is after 6 years.
As most people want to be "out on the horse" before his first 2 year olds hit the track, the above scenarios do not work without Southern Hemisphere income. I am not saying that Eurosilver at $4mm cannot be done, but the syndicate manager selling those shares would have to be a darn good salesman that is not worried about making anything (markup) for his efforts.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out, particularly as there is a growing concern among stallion managers that fees are too high. But there have been some other deals done recently that I would not have touched. But if he is the 1 out of 10 that make it as a stallion, then of course hindsight will show $mm to be a deal!
Best regards.
Roving Boy
how different of a prospect do y'all think eurosilver is from domestic dispute? i rather think they are similiar in terms of prospects and domestic dispute sure is not standing for $10k plus. if you are willing to breed to the unbridled line, he seems a bargain compared to the prices you are bantering about.
hi ak1
For starters...
...I suggest that Eurosilver leaned toward brilliant...I don't believe that can be said of Domestic Dispute.
Furthermore...Eurosilver is out of a Nijinsky daughter of the 2-yo champion filly and BC Juvenile Fillies-G1 winner...Brave Raj. Domestic Dispute is out of a Magesterial daughter of a daughter of Drouilly[FR]...hmmm.
And for what it's worth...a horse named Eurosilver has gotta be worth a few bucks more than a horse named Domestic Dispute...don't you think?
Respectfully
For starters...
...I suggest that Eurosilver leaned toward brilliant...I don't believe that can be said of Domestic Dispute.
Furthermore...Eurosilver is out of a Nijinsky daughter of the 2-yo champion filly and BC Juvenile Fillies-G1 winner...Brave Raj. Domestic Dispute is out of a Magesterial daughter of a daughter of Drouilly[FR]...hmmm.
And for what it's worth...a horse named Eurosilver has gotta be worth a few bucks more than a horse named Domestic Dispute...don't you think?
Respectfully
FOS wrote:hi ak1
For starters...
...I suggest that Eurosilver leaned toward brilliant...I don't believe that can be said of Domestic Dispute.
Furthermore...Eurosilver is out of a Nijinsky daughter of the 2-yo champion filly and BC Juvenile Fillies-G1 winner...Brave Raj. Domestic Dispute is out of a Magesterial daughter of a daughter of Drouilly[FR]...hmmm.
And for what it's worth...a horse named Eurosilver has gotta be worth a few bucks more than a horse named Domestic Dispute...don't you think?
Respectfully
yes the name is definitely worth a few more! I'd definitely prefer Nijinsky on the broodmare sire side, though I have heard mixed reviews of Brave Raj as a producer. However she was an amazing racehorse! I am looking at both as sons of Unbridled Song who are gr 2 &3 winners--did not really think about perception of brilliance surrounding them. Seems like anything more than $10k to start is pushing the market. Of course, it would not be the first time that an aggressive stud fee has been set for a first year sire, just will be interesting to see which farm steps up.
Thanks! Appreciate the thoughts. ..AK