FOS wrote:...Lost In The Fog's running style (although highly successful for him) seems to be somewhat one dimensional (try to go to the lead, then blow the competition away). Needless to say, he's explosive and his running style has proved to be highly successful for him....but have we seen or heard anything about Lost In The Fog (other than the comment that he is more "streamlined" now) that would support the contention that he would win over TOP competition, going one mile (or possibly even beyond) on the dirt or the turf.
Now that's not to say that the competition at some tracks (including his northern California home-base) might not be the kind that he could trounce...even going a mile...but I expect that he'd be stung versus TOP horses in a race like the (one mile) G1-Metropolitan H (for example).
I sense that Lost In The Fog is a pure sprinter...and he might sprint on the turf also...but why...what will that really do for him, even if he's successful at it? I suggest there's little or no upside (for him) to that venture...I say forget about it.
...although if he did pull off such a victory (going a mile or beyond on the dirt versus TOP competition) such an accomplishment would arguably enhance his value, possibly dramatically. The flip side is that if he fades (which if I had to guess right now, I'd have to say is what I'd expect)...hmmm. He might even be distanced...Ouch.
I don't know, there have been lots of horses with sprint speed that have successfully pulled off a switch to middle distances (8-9f) in the past. Bold Forbes, J.O. Tobin, Star de Naskra, Precisionist, Smile, Black Tie Affair, Cherokee Run, Housebuster, Smoke Glacken, and Orientate among others. Even Groovy ran close in the Wood Memorial. So it wouldn't come as a surprise to see LITF pull it off. Plus his pedigree suggests he should stay at least a mile. The Met Mile, on the other hand, is a difficult race to win and I wouldn't write off LITF beyond a mile if he were to tank in that race. Lots of other champions have bombed in that race.
I would think he's more likely to win at a middle distance against top horses than he would going 7 furlongs. 7f seems to be a difficult distance for sprinters to see out, particularly when they face top class routers. Seems like horses like Housebuster or Caller One always get tagged by horses like Unbridled, or Rock Hard Ten, Forego or Pleasant Tap at that distance.
As far as the grass experiment, there is a lot of money offered in Hong Kong in the late season for sprinters, so it probably wouldn't be a bad idea. Particularly since there isn't too many rich sprint stakes outside the BC here in the US...
Apparently Lost in the Fog's body is maturing such that this should be a fun season for him coming up.
