Momentum

Discussion and analysis of thoroughbred stallions.

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Sysonby
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Momentum

Postby Sysonby » Sun Dec 18, 2005 7:22 pm

Breed to Momentum and Reddam is apparently offering to buy the baby back as a yearling for $15K no questions asked.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/71028.html

FoxMulder
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Postby FoxMulder » Mon Dec 19, 2005 8:56 am

This is a very clever stallion promotion, but I wonder how many of the yearling owners would take them up on this offer. From the 100 mares under consideration for the guarantee, there might only be 65-75 yearlings actually subject to the offer. I suspect most of these owners would be more optimistic about the racing or sales prospects of their new yearling, and would decline the offer to sell for $15,000 - particularly if that offer is made early in 2008 when the horse has just become a yearling. Perhaps no more than 15 of the 65-75 get bought back, not that big a risk considering the effectiveness of the promotion. Also working in the stallion owner's favor here is that the yearlings he buys back for $15,000 will help boost the published yearling sales figures; in theory, Momentum's average yearling sale price will be at least 3x the stud fee.

The guarantee is limited to the first 100 mares booked for 2006, other than the 20 or so home mares. This year Momentum was bred to 47 mares; 15 home. With this guarantee in place I suspect he'll have no problem increasing his book of mares to over 100. While the advertisement doesn't say that the mare must be approved, if they are flooded with requests you would think that they would choose the best 100 mares offered.

The promotion is clever because they've got breeders like us giving more thought to Momentum - which is what marketing is all about.

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Sysonby
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Postby Sysonby » Mon Dec 19, 2005 9:15 am

I agree with you it's very clever, but I think there is significant exposure to Reddam given the state of the California yearling market.

For one thing, this won't help sales. There is no sale any more in California in August unless you are counting that Northern California sale in which yearlings averaged somewhere south of $10K as I recall. So what Reddam is proposing are private purchases which won't help the sales figures at all.

Secondly $15,000 for a $5000 stud fee is generous here for a second year sire. Skimming averaged $11,000 for a $7500 stud fee and arguably brings a lot more to the table than Momentum. There's also a glut of Nureyevs in the state; besides Momentum, you've got Skimming, Unusual Heat and Atticus.

What I really think they are looking towards are breeder awards. They can be incredibly lucrative for stallions but you have to pump up the numbers to ensure the maximum amount of runners to chase those awards. Making the stallion himself would arguably cost more than the 15K proposed. Either way, it's almost a guaranteed safety net for the breeder of a Momentum foal and I suspect breeders will flock to it. They'll get their 100.