Mr P over Caro why doesn't it work?
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Mr P over Caro why doesn't it work?
Okay so I was running some hypo's on my In Excess mare and I was wondering why the Mr. P over Caro doesn't work (its like a C nick). Has it just not been tried a lot or is there a genetic issue in there? She's totally free of Mr. P (God bless her) and I was just wondering if it was worth fiddling with.
I don't have low self-esteem. I have low esteem for everyone else. ~ Daria
Re: Mr P over Caro why doesn't it work?
austique wrote:Okay so I was running some hypo's on my In Excess mare and I was wondering why the Mr. P over Caro doesn't work (its like a C nick). Has it just not been tried a lot or is there a genetic issue in there? She's totally free of Mr. P (God bless her) and I was just wondering if it was worth fiddling with.
It *could* mean that it hasn't been tried enough to yield statics that would make the cut.
I'm going through the same thing trying to get a "handle" on a new sire, by a South American sire. The nick comes up Exclusive Native (3rd Gen. Sire) to my mare's 2nd Gen Sire. I had to order and sort through all the progeny reports for all three sireline sires and check them against all three broodmare sireline sires, to see why mine came up a "0" nick. I would guess that Exclusive Native was just not a sound cross with Icecapade or just not a "fashionable" thing to do. But now...several generations later, 5x5 to Native Dancer and 4x6 to Nearctic looks good. All else in-between is total outcross.
My mares are also totally free of Mr. P (as well as Northern Dancer.) Seems to be uncharted waters
In any event, my research showed good nicks with many other sires in her breeding w/the potential sireline (all generations), with good percentages, like one mare bred, 100% stakes winners, or a good SSI.
With all things, there is a "starting point". Didn't Ralph Waldo Emerson say something like, "go where none had gone before and blaze your own trail"?
(Or words to that affect 
)If you look at the Fappiano/Unbridled cross with Caro, it comes out as a B/A+, and the Fappiano line comes from Mr P. I don't put alot of weight behind the werk nicks because it leaves waaaay too much out of the equation when planning a breeding, such as the quality of the individual, and the mares.
See but when you run the nicks they consider the Unbridled/Caro nick to be completely different from the Mr P nick. The mare is like an A+ nick with Saarland, but a C with the Mr P stallion I ran her with (whose name I am drawing a blank on). Oddly enough when I was shopping for my other mare who's by a son of Mr. P and ran her with Mizzen Mast the Caro/Mr. P was an A nick. Its all academic because my mare is a few generations removed from Caro (although personality wise they are much closer )
)I don't have low self-esteem. I have low esteem for everyone else. ~ Daria
halo wrote:I guess this is one reason why the Werk Nicks really lose me. If you are dealing with In Excess, why would that be a Caro nick? Caro is 3 generations back. Wouldnt you be looking at an In Excess/Mr. P nick?
Because neither Siberien Express nor In Excess have covered enough Mr. P mares and produced enough stakes winners to have established their own nicks. I feel like I'm talking to walls at this point because people keep asking -- enicks are sireLINE to broodmare sireLINE. If it only stopped at the stallion in question, you wouldn't be able to run a Rock Hard Ten nick.
austique wrote:See but when you run the nicks they consider the Unbridled/Caro nick to be completely different from the Mr P nick. The mare is like an A+ nick with Saarland, but a C with the Mr P stallion I ran her with.
A few of the stronger Prospector sons have established their own nicks independant of Prospector himself -- Gone West, Forty Niner, Fappiano, Unbridled (who is independant of Fappiano). At this point, if you're still nicking on Prospector, you're looking at one of his weaker or younger sire branches like probably Seeking the Gold, Carson City, Crafty Prospector, Gulch, or Miswaki
Sam wrote:halo wrote:I guess this is one reason why the Werk Nicks really lose me. If you are dealing with In Excess, why would that be a Caro nick? Caro is 3 generations back. Wouldnt you be looking at an In Excess/Mr. P nick?
Because neither Siberien Express nor In Excess have covered enough Mr. P mares and produced enough stakes winners to have established their own nicks. I feel like I'm talking to walls at this point because people keep asking -- enicks are sireLINE to broodmare sireLINE. If it only stopped at the stallion in question, you wouldn't be able to run a Rock Hard Ten nick.
Ok now you've lost me. Valentine Dancer is a SW by In Excess out of a Mr P mare and there are three other examples of foals with just that nick on this database. Perhaps that's not enough of a sample but what about the 30 + foals out of Mr Prospector line mares and sired by In Excess? And what about additional foals being sired by Indian Charlie? I'd be surprised if he has no runners out of Mr P line mares to evaluate.
Sysonby wrote:Sam wrote:halo wrote:I guess this is one reason why the Werk Nicks really lose me. If you are dealing with In Excess, why would that be a Caro nick? Caro is 3 generations back. Wouldnt you be looking at an In Excess/Mr. P nick?
Because neither Siberien Express nor In Excess have covered enough Mr. P mares and produced enough stakes winners to have established their own nicks. I feel like I'm talking to walls at this point because people keep asking -- enicks are sireLINE to broodmare sireLINE. If it only stopped at the stallion in question, you wouldn't be able to run a Rock Hard Ten nick.
Ok now you've lost me. Valentine Dancer is a SW by In Excess out of a Mr P mare and there are three other examples of foals with just that nick on this database. Perhaps that's not enough of a sample but what about the 30 + foals out of Mr Prospector line mares and sired by In Excess? And what about additional foals being sired by Indian Charlie? I'd be surprised if he has no runners out of Mr P line mares to evaluate.
I need a head banging on a desk or wall emoticon.
repeating...
Sam wrote:neither Siberien Express nor In Excess have covered enough Mr. P mares and produced enough stakes winners
It is NOT a sample based on HORSES or "runners". It's a sample based on STAKES WINNERS. There could be a million horses on the Caro/Mr. P cross. If there isn't a single stakes winner, they are immaterial to the study.
You can't do that kind of study with such a broad search vector. If there are 15000 horses that were bred Caro/Mr. Prospector and 2500 of them were NEVER bred to be racehorses, including them screws up the data. You have to narrow your search.
The question is "Out of all the STAKES WINNERS from the Caro line, which broodmare line accounts for the most of them."
It is NOT "Which broodmare line has the highest percentage of stakes winners when bred to Caro line sires?"
It's a subtle, semantical difference that many people just don't get.
That's why the werk nicks are a GUIDE ONLY and not to be used as the end all, be all decission maker when planning a matings. Many times the lower grade IS the better cross. That's why HUMANS pick the recommendations, not a computer.
I'm not trying to use this as an indictment of Werk. I understand why the cross goes back to Caro and I understand the Fappiano thing (obviously he's got different gentics than his father). I was just wondering why Mr. P/Caro seems to not work while Caro/Mr.P does according to their data. Was it not tried for some reason? Did it just not work in reverse? Its all academic. Ah, the mysteries of the world
I don't have low self-esteem. I have low esteem for everyone else. ~ Daria
Because neither Siberien Express nor In Excess have covered enough Mr. P mares and produced enough stakes winners to have established their own nicks. I feel like I'm talking to walls at this point because people keep asking -- enicks are sireLINE to broodmare sireLINE. If it only stopped at the stallion in question, you wouldn't be able to run a Rock Hard Ten nick
You're not talking to the walls....everyone gets what you are saying. The fact is the PROGRAM itself doesn't make any sense.
First off you have a program that only factors maybe 50% of the family based on sire lines only....totally disregarding female families.....then you have to have sires who are well known....and then you have to have only those well known sires in the sire line....nick with only the well known sires on the female side, which can be 3 generations back, too far back to really matter much. And to top it off god forbid they come from another country where those sires are not known....and who have never nicked with sires over here...where is the sense in that 
Save your money BJ and go to someone like Suzanne Cardiff who factors in both male lines....female lines and SSI'S and AEI's and so much more for a couple hundred dollars....then a half as program like Werk!
She does it hands on, not on some computer that caculates numbers only.
Last edited by Nijinsky on Wed Feb 01, 2006 4:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I try not to listen to the voices in my head.
But sometimes they have such good ideas
But sometimes they have such good ideas
It is NOT a sample based on HORSES or "runners". It's a sample based on STAKES WINNERS. There could be a million horses on the Caro/Mr. P cross. If there isn't a single stakes winner, they are immaterial to the study.
That's too bad...there are some really good Stakes Places and allowance horses that improve a sires AEI if it wasn't for those types of horses most sires AEI would be much lower. Again it's a half as program. maybe even 1/4
That's why the werk nicks are a GUIDE ONLY and not to be used as the end all, be all decission maker when planning a matings. Many times the lower grade IS the better cross. That's why HUMANS pick the recommendations, not a computer.
I'd rather pay Suzanne Cardiff a couple hundred dollars if not less than a thousand dollars (going rate I hear) for part of a report....see where it doesn't make any sense. It's a scam and a rip off.
Last edited by Nijinsky on Wed Feb 01, 2006 4:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I try not to listen to the voices in my head.
But sometimes they have such good ideas
But sometimes they have such good ideas
In fairness to Sam she has agreed that the program ignores the female family.
What it does provide is a statistical rating of the stakes success of certain sirelines when they are combined and you can use that as a jumping off point or ignore it. Frankly, you can go to 100 different pedigree analysts and get 100 different answers from the same set of statistics. Statistics are open to interpretation and everyone has a bias. Werk is no more useless or useful than any other number of services out there because when you are working with flesh and blood you can't distill success down to a number no matter how impressive the process which produced that number may have been.
Now back to Caro and Mr. P and why they seem to be fickle friends
What it does provide is a statistical rating of the stakes success of certain sirelines when they are combined and you can use that as a jumping off point or ignore it. Frankly, you can go to 100 different pedigree analysts and get 100 different answers from the same set of statistics. Statistics are open to interpretation and everyone has a bias. Werk is no more useless or useful than any other number of services out there because when you are working with flesh and blood you can't distill success down to a number no matter how impressive the process which produced that number may have been.
Now back to Caro and Mr. P and why they seem to be fickle friends
I don't have low self-esteem. I have low esteem for everyone else. ~ Daria