Post Positions: Let's Dish

[Heidilady]

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=33383

Anybody finding anything interesting about how things turned out or have thoughts on how a particular position will help/hurt a horse? Kinda amuses me that Baffert's horses are practically neighbors. I'd love it if someone can recount to us how many have won from each hole and anything like 'oh it's been 20 years since anyone won from this post' or whatever. For some reason I'm thinking nobody's won from 19 or 20 but I could be making that up. Sinister Minister and Keyed Entry next to each other. Very interesting. Sharp Humor and Sweetnorthernsaint are pretty close too...speed speed speed and Brother Derek/Lawyer Ron being where they are with the first turn coming up.. this is gonna be one fun Derby.

1. Jazil-- Kiaran McLaughlin-- Fernando Jara--30-1
2. Steppenwolfer-- Danny Peitz-- Robby Albarado--30-1
3. Keyed Entry-- Todd Pletcher-- Pat Valenzuela--30-1
4. Sinister Minister-- Bob Baffert-- Victor Espinoza--12-1
5. Point Determined-- Bob Baffert-- Rafael Bejarano--12
6. Showing Up-- Barclay Tagg-- Cornelio Velasquez--20-1
7. Bob and John-- Bob Baffert-- Garrett Gomez--12-1
8. Barbaro-- Michael Matz-- Edgar Prado--4-1
9. Sharp Humor-- Dale Romans-- Mark Guidry--20-1
10. A.P. Warrior-- John Shirreffs-- Corey Nakatani--15-1
11. Sweetnorthernsaint-- Michael Trombetta-- Kent Desormeaux--10-1
12. Private Vow-- Steve Asmussen-- Shaun Bridgmohan--50-1
13. Bluegrass Cat-- Todd Pletcher-- Ramon Dominguez--30
14. Deputy Glitters-- Tom Albertrani-- Jose Lezcano--50-1
15. Seaside Retreat-- Mark Casse-- Patrick Husbands--50-1
16. Cause to Believe-- Jerry Hollendorfer-- Russell Baze--50-1
17. Lawyer Ron-- Bob Holthus-- John McKee--4-1
18. Brother Derek-- Dan Hendricks-- Alex Solis--3-1
19. Storm Treasure-- Steve Asmussen-- David Flores--50-1
20. Flashy Bull-- Kiaran McLaughlin-- Mike Smith--50-1

[Nerd]

wow, those odds are a bit strange. I sure wouldn't have put Cause to Believe at 50-1 and Sinister Minister at 12-1.

[Sam]

You know, at those odds, Private Vow is worth throwing a couple bucks at just because he's been on my watch list the longest. I'm still going with Point Determined to win it though.

[austique]

Given how early he drew, I think putting Barbaro in the 8 hole was a bad move. This horse has never been shoved, bumped, had dirt kicked in his face and they put him there He's going to get an education. I'll still lay odd he freaks out on the paddock. I think Matz may have gotten a tad too clever for his horse. (Disclaimer: Michael Matz is a fine human being, but I reserve the right to criticize because frankly I feel he's been a bit smug through all this and that reminds me of Todd Pletcher and Todd Pletcher annoys me to no end end of rant)

I would totally echo Sam that I though Private Vow's listing at 50-1 was excessive and was even more shocked to see Steppenwolfer at 30-1. I think Brother Derek's and Lawyer Ron's connections made good decisions going outside. I wouldn't want to be inside of Sinister Minister (although Steppenwolfer is).

Did anyone check out the little metros that chose for Cause to Believe? Ah, metros you got to love them.

[Nerd]

Point Determined for the win? Please oh please give me a reason to agree with you. I really want to root for this guy, but he just hasn't pulled it together the way I hoped he would. Definite sentimental favorite, but I have no confidence in his guts/grit/cojones. (of course maybe he's doing real well and I'm just disappointed because my expectations were too high)

On the + side I hear he's becoming more aggressive, working more vigorously and with more initiative.

[Sam]

Point Determined for the win? Please oh please give me a reason to agree with you. I really want to root for this guy, but he just hasn't pulled it together the way I hoped he would. Definite sentimental favorite, but I have no confidence in his guts/grit/cojones. (of course maybe he's doing real well and I'm just disappointed because my expectations were too high)

On the + side I hear he's becoming more aggressive, working more vigorously and with more initiative.

He just keeps reminding me more and more of how Silver Charm worked up to the race. He's got talent and I can only hope he finally puts it all together Saturday. If not, I'm definitely pegging him as my Swaps/Haskell horse.

[Shammy Davis]

TVG's Frank Lyons has been talking POINT DETERMINED up for months. I watched his last work on TV and it looked very good. But then again, all of them so far have looked very good. I don't remember a field of horses that were this capable. Then again, my memory stinks.

[Easy Goer]

Bob and John seems to find more than his share of trouble at the start and he starts next to that beast Barbaro. That could be a problem.

Jazil is small but a deep closer so you figure the rail cant hurt him too much but it's still the rail and always presents problems.

[louis finochio]

The worst post position will mean little if the TB has the breeding, will, class and condition and racing luck to come home a winner.

In just a few days time we will all know which TB will win the Ky. Derby.
Good Luck to all and we all hope for a safe run in the 1st jewel of the TC.

[Derby2004]

Sweetnorthernsaint I think got a good post. A lot of speed to the inside that he can settle behind. Its going to be very interesting. He will get in front of Bro Derek just behind Lawyer Ron

[Double_Jay]

Sinister Minister, PP #4, couldn't be better for him. I'm not saying I'm picking him to win, although he could, but that he got a perfect post with his running style. I expect him to shoot out of there like he's being launched from a cannon.

Double Jay

[Sam]

If I'm not mistaken, the 1 spot has produced the most winners historically (with 17 producing the second most). That was some cheap stat ABC or whatever was showing the race at the time threw up about 4 years ago.

[zinn21]

With the pace scenario Brother Derek drew the worst post of all the main contenders. He looks to either get hung out, perhaps by Lawyer Ron, or take back which will severely alter his best running style-No question a loose loose for BD. Lawyer Ron should get a decent second flight trip. His post will force Mckee to make some split second choices near the wire the first time around. Should I float out and tuck late or tuck for position early? Bob and John, Point Determined and Barbaro should get good second flight trips and with a torrid pace likely this set will need to be ridden with the utmost of patience-an early move could spell doom for them inside the eighth pole.

I still like LR to win it all. He's battle tested and shows his opposition nothing but ass from the quarter pole home in his last five starts. I like Jazil and Steppenwolfer to pick up the pieces.

[LaTroienne]

BD shall have to go reallllly wide.

[louis finochio]

BD has the speed to break from the gate and get a good position behind the pace setters. If I was BD trainer I would give those instructions to Alex Solis.