Complain About 3yo Honors Even Though Its Only June Thread

[austique]

Barbaro <snip> is fighting back through a very serious injury.

THAT should in NO WAY WHATSOEVER be used as a determining factor at vote time and ANYONE who uses that as a reason to vote for him needs to have their voting rights stripped.

ALL titles should be handed out on MERIT, not touchy feely backstories.

His breaking down and fighting for his life has not one damn thing to do with his RACE RECORD and no one should give it any weight when voting time rolls around.

Idiot casual fans voting from their emotions are the only ones who'd buy into that crap as a selling point and I find it offensive when people suggest he should be the top 3yo because he broke down.

What she said If the 3yo divison just falls apart and nobody does anything then Barbaro is champion, but that is unlikely to happen. Bernardini so far has made four starts...in succession he broke his maiden, won a GR III, and a GRI classic. Now that's how you run out your conditions

[Heidilady]

Well right now, the fact is Barbaro has more qualifications that all of them so I hate feeling like I have to defend him as if he's managed 2 G2s or something cuz then I wouldn't be figuring he'll get the Eclipse. To me it's simple, another horse surpasses his accomplishments, they deserve the trophy, if not, they don't. Not hard. And I'm not anti-Bernardini and I don't like being thought of that way just to clarify. It's just easier to pick on his name since he's the most recent G1 3yo. Either another horse wins the races or they don't.

Another thing, most of the voters DO seem to do the math thing (virtually all in fact so that it's often a landslide in categories they thought would be more contentious like Smarty v Ghostzapper). Don't get upset that the emotion card was played if it hasn't been yet. Clearly that didn't work with Smarty for HOY even though he was a crowd fave. In this case, this is the same age group we're talking about so older horse bias isn't applicable, nor is dual classic. Year round bias, however, could very much be which is why it's possible that neither Barbaro nor Bernardini could win it.

And lastly, jagger or anybody else, what's the GSV numbers on Steppenwolfer because I've heard from more than one person that they thought he looked fierce. Wouldn't be neat if Sunriver followed big sis and became a champion? All sorts of great stories this year. And I'm happy for Aptitude and Dynaformer.

[jagger]

Heidilady,

While Steppenwolfer has a meager 62+ GSV, he does have a very favorable conduit mare profile (stamina) and third triad. Afleet Alex did it with the lowest GSV (62+) of any Belmont Winner in the last 20 or 30 years but like Steppenwolfer, his conduit mare profile and third triad were very much in keeping with previous Belmont winners. Bob and John and Jazil have very nice GSV's (74 or 75) but have dismal conduit mare profile and third triad scores, quite a bit lower than any Belmont winner including Editor's Note, Sarava, Commendable or Birdstone. Sunriver has the best conduit mare profile and third triad, I think. Steppenwolfer may be 2nd. Bluegrass Cat has a nice combination of GSV, conduit mare profile and third triad and with 5 double copy mares on the bottom, gets my vote.

Pretty good year for A.P. Indy if either Bluegrass Cat or Steppenwolfer wins in combination with his grandson, Bernardini.

[jagger]

Sacred Light also has very favorable conduit mare profile/third triad scores and a respectable if not exceptional GSV of 67+.

Bluegrass Cat may also be the oldest horse in the race. (February foal date) May be a factor. 14 year old Little League pitcher with a 60 MPH fast ball versus a 16 year with an almost 90 MPH fast ball.

[Sam]

To me it's simple, another horse surpasses his accomplishments, they deserve the trophy

The FACT that you keep ignoring is that another horse doesn't HAVE to 'surpass' his accomplishments, they only have to MATCH them and by virtue of having raced/won in the fall, that makes them the 3yo champ. Bernardini or the Belmont winner only has to win ONE MORE G1 (personally, from the way I read the voters, they'll only have to win one more graded stake. Doesn't have to be a G1).

A horse could win the Swaps and Pacific Classic this year and take the 3yo title (actually, I have a feeling this is going to be the game plan for Point Determined).

They could pull a Lost Code, pick off half a dozen G2 and G3s and get it.

It just isn't going to take all the much to take home a trophy this year. I LOVE years without a dual classic winner because this is the kind of year where blue collar horses can shine. The elite waste their time beating each other and a nice Lost Code/Western Playboy type picks off one strategic Fall G1 plus a handful of G2/G3/Listed stakes and walks off with the trophy. The only thing that kept LC and WP from getting a title was they both happened in years with a dual classic winner (and in WP's case ... Easy Goer). They were underappreciated because they were outshined by a dual classic winner.

The bar is set extremely low in a year without a dual classic winner. Jan-April form and accomplishments don't seem to carry much weight UNLESS you are talking about TWO or more single classic winners who ALSO win a stake (not necessarily a grade 1) in the fall. Single Classic winners cannot win a 3yo title unless they win in the fall. PERIOD. It would take ALL THREE single classic winners goose-egging for the rest of the year, and in a case like that, your most logical 3yo CH. will come from someone with a strong fall campaign.

In a year without a dual classic winner, the ONLY thing you have to do is win a pair of graded stakes, one in the spring and one in the fall. Take a classic; your fall stake doesn't even have to be a grade 1. Basically, winning in the fall is "extra credit" and acts like an additional stake win. Otherwise, you're just a lucky bum like Giacomo.

Barbaro's credentials aren't going to mean a damn thing at the end of the year because he didn't race in the fall. The ONLY way you get away with that is to be a dual classic winner. If you aren't and sit out the rest of the season -- Too bad, so sad. Enjoy your retirement.

[austique]

Note on Steppenwolfer his GSV is not that high, but take into account that his sire is quite young (first crop are 3yos) and he had meager results before Steppenwolfer. Not to disparage GSV at all because I think its a useful tool and I use it to help look at matings, but you really have to watch the numbers when it comes to younger sires because the system penalizes them for lack of production (which it should), so in the case of a horse like Steppenwolfer or even a Brother Derek (who's sire is regional and they seem to take a hit in the system as well due to lack of big stage exposure (which they should)) you kind of have to throw the number out and look at the individual.

That is my daily rant in defense of Steppenwolfer Who is also quite lovely and his breath smells of flowers and he has a lovely singing voice and he waltzes divinely, etc., etc.....

[jagger]

Excellent point, austique, but I'm not quite willing to "throw out" the GSV's for progeny of young sires because they are too young to have a record of success as it would also be incorrect to assume that they ever will.

I like Steppenwolfer for the same reasons you do and as I mentioned, we don't have to look very far to find a horse with a 62 GSV that has won The Belmont. Afleet Alex. So, I won't be the least bit surprised to see Steppenwolfer get to the wire first.

The longer the race the more I tend to favor conduit mare profile over the GSV which was why I was not on the Brother Derek bandwagon in The Derby. Then again, we almost had a triple crown winner with abysmal conduit mare profile/third triad numbers - Charismatic.

So, will Steppenwolfer join Afleet Alex as the Belmont winner with the lowest GSV in decades or will Jazil or Bob and John join Charasmatic as great horses who defied their conduit mare profiles?

Is this fun or what? I just wish it lasted longer than 2:28 or so. More like Indy would be better.

[Nessa]

To me it's simple, another horse surpasses his accomplishments, they deserve the trophy

It just isn't going to take all the much to take home a trophy this year. I LOVE years without a dual classic winner because this is the kind of year where blue collar horses can shine. The elite waste their time beating each other and a nice Lost Code/Western Playboy type picks off one strategic Fall G1 plus a handful of G2/G3/Listed stakes and walks off with the trophy. The only thing that kept LC and WP from getting a title was they both happened in years with a dual classic winner (and in WP's case ... Easy Goer). They were underappreciated because they were outshined by a dual classic winner.

Pardon but Easy Goer wasn't the 3yro champion dual classic winner Sunday Silence was. Easy did win the Swale, Gotham(G2), Wood Memorial(G1), Belmont(G1), Whitney(G1), Travers(G1), Woodward(G1), and the Jockey Club Gold Cup(G1), as well as running second in the Kentucky Derby(G1), Preakness(G1), and Breeder's Cup Classic(G1), and for my money Clever Trevor was the third best 3yro that year.

[Sam]

Pardon but Easy Goer wasn't the 3yro champion dual classic winner Sunday Silence was.

I know that. That's why I said "and Easy Goer", because even if Sunday hadn't been a dual classic winner that year, WP still would have had to deal with EG ... no contest. Though, I still think what cost EG a title was because all his wins were in NY.

and for my money Clever Trevor was the third best 3yro that year.

Arguable.

Clever Trevor at 3 Won Saint Paul Derby -G2, Remington Park Derby -L, Arlington Classic S. -G1, Budweiser S. -L; 2nd Travers S. -G1, Arkansas Derby -G2, Great West S. -L

-- Total win record: 1 G1 win, 1 G2, 2 Listed; 2nd in 1 G1, 1 G2 and 1 Listed

Western Playboy at 3 Won Jim Beam S. -G2, Pennsylvania Derby -G2, Blue Grass S. -G1, John D. Hertz S. (R) -L; 2nd Florida Derby -G1, Hutcheson S. -G3, 3rd Arlington Classic S. -G1

-- Total record: 1 G1 win, 2 G2, 1 Listed wins; 2nd in 1 G1 and 1 G3, 1 G1 3rd.

The thing in Trevor's favour was that he beat WP in the Arlington Classic. You could argue WP had the better placings in graded company.

[Keith]

Barbaro is the best three year old so far broke down or not. He is a classic winner and winner of two Grade I races including a dominating Kentucky Derby as well as the Tropical Park Derby on the first of the year winning on the turf. He won two Grade I' s and two Grade III's. Ghostzapper won Horse of The Year on four starts and so why can't Barbaro win Champion three year old winning 4 times out of 5 starts and winning racing's most prestigious race in dominating passion. The Kentucky Derby should hold a lot of weight in winning champion three year old. It is not about him breaking down but you have to give him credit because he is a fighter and determined whether on the race track or not. You look at the last two years in the case of Lost In The Fog and Kitten's Joy who both had very impressive records but neither horse had a shot at champion three year old beating out a dual classic winners. Prestigious races is what wins you championships. Easy Goer lost the most prestigious races that counted like the Kentucky Derby, Breeder's Cup Juvenile, and Breeder's Cup Classic. Winning the classics and the Breeder's Cup are the races that make champions. Some horses win the most prestigious races and lose the rest and that is why they are not champions. If a three year old puts on a small win streak and wins the Breeder's Cup Classic than Barbaro should not win champion three year old. What if Two Much Bling wins the Breeder's Cup Sprint should he have a chance at champion three year old? There are alot of scenarios that could change the three year old picture. Right now Barbaro and Bernardini should be very close for champion three year old but you have to give the edge to Barbaro because he has won two Grade I races. In the case of Easy Goer and Sunday Silence, they met three times and Sunday Silence won three out of the four times they met but if Easy Goer won the Preakness or the Breeder's Cup Classic Easy Goer would have most likely have been champion three year old.

Keith

[Sam]

You look at the last two years in the case of Lost In The Fog and Kitten's Joy who both had very impressive records but neither horse had a shot at champion three year old beating out a dual classic winners.

Except Barbaro is NOT a dual classic winner so to try and draw a comparison is stupid. In a year like this -- without a dual classic winner -- horses like Lost In The Fog and Kitten's Joy would most likely be the first pick for CH. 3yo AND CH. Specialist honors. There would still be those opposed to giving them both titles because of some skewed logic that says if you take both, you get HOY by default, but they would be the most logical choice.

NO ONE has said Barbaro doesn't have the cred to be the top horse RIGHT NOW. The voting isn't happening RIGHT NOW though and when the vote takes place, I GUARANTEE he is NOT champion 3yo.

You're trying to compare Barbaro to Ghostzapper and ignoring one very key piece ... the same thing that Heidi is ignoring ... GHOSTZAPPER RAN IN THE FALL! Had he run all of his races before May and been done in June like Jones was, the vote most likely would have been a LOT closer than it was.

And you really need to get over this "he's a fighter and that should make him the champ" thing, Keith. Sentimentality has no place in deciding who has earned a championship title.

The horse broke down ... boo damn hoo. The idea that he should get the title simply because he brokedown and is fighting for his life is sickening. Only idiots voting from emotion buy into that.

[Keith]

Afleet Alex-Dual Classic winner did not race in fall- Champion 3 Year Old

Smarty Jones-Dual Classic winner did not race in the fall- Champion 3 Year Old

Dual Classic winner or not Barbaro won the most prestigious race in dramatic fashion. Whether he gets champion three year old or not he is a Kentucky Derby winner. He won that on the track and not by an opinion of the voters at the end of the year. Rock Hard Ten was undefeated last year and he won one of races most prestigious races in winning the Santa Anita H. and was he a better horse than Saint Liam? It all comes down to the opinion of the voters. Barbaro is a champion in his own right whether he wins an eclipse award or not. It is amazing he is still alive and it is not over yet. People will remember the highs and lows of racing when it comes to Barbaro. Charismatic ran for a claiming tag and broke down and he won Horse of The Year. I do disagree that winning the classics should automatically merit you to be in the running for Horse of The Year. Ghostzapper was undefeated and won the Championship race at the end of the year beating a very strong field. He deserved Horse of the Year. Saint Liam was very impressive at the end of the Year and won the Classic meriting him Horse of The Year. Horses peak at certain times and the time of year you are good should not determine who is the best horse. The Kentucky Derby winner and the Breeder's Cup Classic winner should be in the running for the eclipse award at the end of the year. There is a bias against Turf horses and the Breeder's Cup Turf often involves International competition but how often does a Turf horse win Horse of the Year. Not very often. There should not be a bias toward a sprinter, turf horse, or a route horse. To me if Lost In the Fog won the sprint last year he should have had a great shot at Horse of The Year but he is a sprinter so he has no shot. He finished off the board and fell out of contention for champion three year old. There has alway been a bias for route horses who run on dirt. To me if Kitten's Joy won the Breeder's Cup Turf he should have been Horse of The Year. He still probably would not have beat out Ghostzapper for Horse of the Year and still could have been ripped off for Champion Three Year Old because he is a turf horse. Whether your horse is a sprinter, turf horse, or route horse who runs on the dirt, your horse should have a chance at Horse of The Year especially if he or she has an unblemished record and has won major races.

Keith[/quote]

[Sam]

Afleet Alex-Dual Classic winner did not race in fall- Champion 3 Year Old

Smarty Jones-Dual Classic winner did not race in the fall- Champion 3 Year Old

See, this is why I hate getting in these discussion because PEOPLE STOP READING the whole post.

Did you even see the sentence where I said the only way you get away with not running in the fall is to be a dual classic winner?

YOU CANNOT COMPARE BARBARO TO AFLEET ALEX.

Afleet Alex was a Dual Classic Winner. Barbaro IS NOT. Afleet Alex DID NOT HAVE TO RACE IN THE FALL. Single Classic winners DO.

Barbaro won the most prestigious race in dramatic fashion.

yawn Yet another vote defense I've never liked. ONE RACE does not a champion make. I don't give a damn how dramatic ONE RACE may have been. This is the same thing that makes idiots like Andy Beyer vote for a horse who makes ONE US start as the HOY.

Whether he gets champion three year old or not he is a Kentucky Derby winner.

yawn So is Giacomo.

Rock Hard Ten was undefeated last year and he won one of races most prestigious races in winning the Santa Anita H. and was he a better horse than Saint Liam?

We'll never know. At his best, yes, I think he was. But the awards are handed out on ACTUAL RACE RECORD, not assumed ability.

It all comes down to the opinion of the voters.

And I'm glad most voters aren't the easily swayed emotional idiots that most casual racing fans are.

Barbaro is a champion in his own right whether he wins an eclipse award or not. It is amazing he is still alive and it is not over yet.

Excuse me, I seem to have lost my micro-violin.

Like I said, the horse broke down. Boo damn hoo. That doesn't mean he should be CH. 3yo. Argue from the horse's race record and you might have some credibility. Trying to convince someone the horse should get a title because he's fighting for his life is a pathetically weak argument.

People will remember the highs and lows of racing when it comes to Barbaro. Charismatic ran for a claiming tag and broke down and he won Horse of The Year.

yawn Some people will. Me, I don't give a damn about some touchy feel good story.

I'll remember he won the Derby because his other races weren't all that impressive.

I'll remember him gimping after the Derby to the point I was immediately suggesting he skip the Preakness.

I'll remember watching him break down in the Preakness and less than 2 seconds later getting a call from a friend saying "Damn Sam, when you're right, you're right." Not that this was something I wanted to be right about.

I do disagree that winning the classics should automatically merit you to be in the running for Horse of The Year.

I never said it should. I just relay historical fact and try to show what a horse has to do if they want to win a championship. There is an unwritten standard that has been set over the last 35 years. Barbaro does not met that standard. No one does YET, but I gaurantee someone does.

Ghostzapper was undefeated and won the Championship race at the end of the year beating a very strong field.

Any other track, that BC Classic would not have gone the same way. Lone Star is a horribly biased track.

The Kentucky Derby winner and the Breeder's Cup Classic winner should be in the running for the eclipse award at the end of the year.

I don't give the Preakness much credit but the FACT is that the Preakness AND the Belmont are both LONG established CLASSIC races -- the BC Classic doesn't have near the history or prestige -- and it's naive to suggest that one classic has more weight than another.

There should not be a bias toward a sprinter, turf horse, or a route horse.

That's the only thing you said I agree with. Too bad that isn't reality.

To me if Lost In the Fog won the sprint last year he should have had a great shot at Horse of The Year but he is a sprinter so he has no shot.

He had no shot because there was a DUAL CLASSIC WINNER and voters WILL NOT shun a dual classic winner. The voters can give a dual classic winner the age title and a horse like LITF a specialist title and everyone is happy.

Whether your horse is a sprinter, turf horse, or route horse who runs on the dirt, your horse should have a chance at Horse of The Year especially if he or she has an unblemished record and has won major races.

Again, that was the only thing you said that I agree with. I'd also add that if you are a Steeplechaser, you should have an equal shot at horse of the year.

Again, that just isn't reality.

[Keith]

The Derby is the most prestigious race of all and you can not compare Barbaro to Giacomo. Giacomo was winless for the year before he won the Derby. Last year Bellamy Road had the most impressive win for a three year old when he won the Wood Memorial. One race does not make a champion but when you win a race like the Kentucky Derby it sure does help. Afleet Alex is a dual classic but he lost in the Derby and look who ran second and third in the Belmont Andromeda's Hero and Nolan's Cat.. Giacomo flipped his pallet and a maiden ran third. Afleet Alex deserved champion three year old when you considered how he trounced Flower Alley in the Arkansas Derby. If Afleet Alex was not in the race it almost could have been a condition allowance race. Barbaro should not have run in the Preakness because he showed he run good off of layoffs. It made more since to run Showing Up in the Preakness but to me it looks like he was used as a rabbit and to prevent Sunriver from entering the race. Before the Preakness they made so many excuses for Brother Derek not winning and they try to blame Brother Derek for Barbaro's breaking down in the Preakness. In the Preakness I really liked Sweetnorthernsaint and that is why I hit the exacta in the Preakness. I could not bet on an odds on favorite like Barbaro but whether I bet on him or not I hate to see any horse break down. Bernardini was hands down the best horse in the Preakness and I doubt Barbaro would have beat him even if he did not break down. It is ashamed Barbaro broke down and it is ashamed his break down takes away from Bernardini's impressive win in the Preakness. Smarty Jones loss took away from Birdstone's win in the Belmont. I think the pressure of wanting to win the Triple Crown led to his break down. I think the smart choice would have been to convert Barbaro back to the turf. After winning the Derby they could have picked and choosed his races and gone for Horse of The Year. His most impressive wins came on the turf but they were in Grade III races so was he a better turf horse or dirt horse? Great horses can win back to back great races. All the horses with very impressive wins going into the Derby were off the board. Barbaro won impressively and the next race he breaks down. Last year Bellamy Road won so impressively in winning the Wood and was off the board in the Derby. So many horses run the race of their life and eventually break down. Racing is longing for the next great race horse and Barbaro proved he was not it but that does not take away from his impressive race record. He ran against lesser company but he did also win the Florida Derby and was once undefeated and so was Ruffian. Barbaro is not even in the same league as Ruffian because she won numerous Grade I races. Enough said about Barbaro because I am sure the Belmont coverage will be all about Barbaro. You do have to feel sorry for Barbaro and I am not saying breaking down merits him champion three year old. One bad step can break down any horse. People will never know how good he could have been. So should Go for Wand not have been a champion because she broke down. 3 of the top 4 finishers in the Derby are running in the Belmont and my bucks are on Jazil. Steppenwolfer will probably be the slight favorite but who knows?

Keith

[Heidilady]

"make the lambs stop screaming....."

austique, I don't suppose there's a way you can retitle this thread to something related to the Eclipse or 3yo honors or however you wanna phrase it so we can talk Belmont without getting hot and bothered about something that's only partly related? I mean it's a margin away from being off topic and apologies from me for feeding into it to the point that it got like this. You had a nice idea and we have a week to fix our silliness. Can we agree to suspend our prattle for a little while at least? I feel like this is overshadowing the remaining Triple Crown race. It's like if I actually bring up the race on this thread, I'm changing the flow of a conversation abruptly, not unlike an awkward conversation at a family reunion.

Either we can pester Roguelet to separate the threads or we can just start a different one (same title, renaming this one) if anybody thinks this has gotten too messy to just talk Belmont. Any sane people coming to the thread now won't read every post (cuz boy we sure got long winded) and if they do they won't really see the Belmont getting discussed much.