Queen's Plate Picks for North America's Oldest Classic Race

[George William Smith]

Here I am on the limb again, o woe is me...sung to the tune "I knew she had to be Asian because of the way she drove
...me crazy."

2006 Queen's Plate, June 25, 2006
This year's edition of North America's oldest Classic race has attracted a strong contingent of foreign invaders. Despite an impressive 13 runners entered, none have the significantly high GSV score of Bernardini or Barbaro. The top horse by GSV is last year's Champion 2YO colt, Edenwold at 73.09. Edenwold was bred by Gail Wood and W. Diamant and is currently owned by former clients of mine, Jim and Alice Sapara.

The probable favorite in the race is Wanna Runner who scores of GSV of only 61.88, the horse with the lowest GSV in the race. Wanna Runner is inbred to Mr. Prospector through his good son Gone West and one of his bad sons, Mt. Magazine. Wanna Runner is not without Canadian roots, despite his California connections. His 2nd dam is by Vice Regent and his 3rd dam is by Victoria Park. Can't get much more connected than that. Despite being by Mt. Magazine, a huge dud as a stallion, Shebandowana, won 3 of 21 starts and $64,749. You can be sure it wasn't Mt. Magazine that has allowed Wanna Runner to be such a good performer. His dam, Shebandowana was a half sister to Miss Indy Anna-G3 [$349,175] and Time Limit-G2 [$379,129]. So if one just closes his eyes and imagines that either sire [Apalachee or Gilded Time] that produced the two graded siblings had been the sire, the GSV still would have been well lower than Edenwold. This is because El Corredor was a young stallion with many runners that have not yet raced and despite a solid AEI/CI ratio, only 5 SW's so far from 190 foals of racing age.

The Queen's Plate Field and GSV Score [updated 2006]
1. Edenwold, 73.09
2. Atlas Shrugs, 63.72
3. Shillelagh Slew, 62.66
4. Thinking Out Loud, 67.74
5. Sterwins, 69.37
6. Ascot Bill, 66.24
7. Pyramid Park, 63.15
8. Malakoff, 67.31
9. Wanna Runner, 61.88
10. Pipers Thunder, 66.91
11. Hot Deputy, 70.63
12. Cifercat, 63.96
13. Bridgecut, 69.65

My Bets:
1. Edenwold and Wanna Runner to the board for an exacta [I'm not going to miss the second horse]
2. Edenwold, Wanna Runner to Edenwold, Wanna Runner, Malakoff, Bridgecut, Hot Deputy to Edenwold, Malakoff, Hot Deputy, Sterwins and Bridgecut for the triactor.
3. Wanna Runner, to Edenwold and Malakoff, to Edenwold, Malakoff, Sterwins and Bridgecut, to the board.

[halo]

George writes:

This is because El Corredor was a young stallion with many runners that have not yet raced and despite a solid AEI/CI ratio, only 5 SW's so far from 190 foals of racing age.


George that drives me CRAZY. 112 of those 194 (according to BRIS, 194 foals) foals are only 2 year olds. Which means he has 5 stakes winners in his first crop of 82 foals, which are only 3 year olds. Three year olds which havent even completed their 3 year old year. His 2 year olds are barely out of diapers. So stating that "only 5 SW's so far from 190 foals of racing age." is really an unfair analysis.

[George William Smith]

You are absolutley correct. Drives me crazy also, but the % of SW's is very difficult to predict and a must for staying conservative one as fulls siblings that both race well can be so divergent here.

It might be interesting for you to know that some sires get almost all of their SW's after the foals turn four and many more yet after five; another group after the foals turn and don't get much more when the foals are four or five; and still another group that basically doesn't change much after July of their 2yo year in that each year they get a new crop of 2yo's that win stakes since they come so early that they have a big advantage over foes.

Drives me nuts; We won't know whether El Corredor trancends these or gets into one of the categories mentioned above. Good luck guessing

[jagger]

Have you recently upgraded Wanna Runner, George? This database currently has him at a GSV of 57.04. He may have the best conduit mare profile of any of the other horses in the field which I think is a nice tool, particularly for classic distances. Even if he is 61+ GSV though, probably not too many of the recent winners of this race were this low.

He is 3D x 4S x 5s to Mr. P. as you have mentioned. Mr. Greeley and Gone West are the conduits on the sire's side. Mr. Greeley has quite a few good horses when involved with an inbreeding to Mr. P recently. Not all have made Goldmine yet as not all are Graded Stakes winners. Mr. Greeley has also done very well when bred to Deputy Minister mares or his father, Vice Regent. Wanna Runner is also 3 x 5 to Vice Regent.

[jagger]

In checking out the previous QP winners (30 years), only T J's Lucky Moon (2002 winner) has a GSV of <61. Curiously, he also did it with dismal "stamina" of 9 and third triad of 17 in the conduit mare profile. Bompago (1983 winner) did it with an equally miserable combination of GSV (61) and "stamina" and third triad #'s of 10 and 12 respectively. More typically, however, the GSV's were in the 70's with 17 out of 30 being >70. Most of the previous winners had a total of around 30 for combination of "stamina" and third triad with Peteski and Key to the Moon leading the way with 34. With a "stamina" of 16 and third triad of 19, Wanna Runner would have the leading total of 35 for the previous 30 years. How much will his very mediocre/poor GSV hurt him?????

Additionally, many of the previous winners have Raise A Native and Vice Regent in their pedigree and Wanna Runner certainly fits this profile.