Posters on this forum may find the following data very interesting:
Over the last 6 years( 2000-2005) the percent of horses in the Breeders Cup Classic with 5 or more Phalaris lines from the 8 stallions in their 4th generation is approximatley 45%. In last years BC Classic alone, there were 8 starters who had 5 or more Phalaris line stallions in their 4th generation.
From 1984 to 1986 there were only 2 starters with 5 or more Phalaris lines from the 8 stallions in their 4 th generation. (and in 1986 there was not a single horse in the entire field that had a Phalaris stallion in its 4th generation. So, in the first 3 years of the BC Classic only around 7% of the starters had 5 or more Phalaris line stallions in generation #4.
Even over the last 22 years the breed has changed big time. And we can see that change by simply looking only at the 8 stallions in a horse's 4th generation.
If the trend continues it might just happen that in time all the stallions in a horse's 4th generation will be Phalaris line stallions.
the breed has changed significantly
Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster
breed has changed
Sorry about that. I meant that in 1986 there was not a single horse in the entire field that had more than 4 Phalaris stallions in its 4th generation. In this study I looked only at the 8 stallions in a horse's 4th generation. It seems clear to me that the breed has changed significantly over the last 22 years and the data I provided indicates a clear cut increase in Phalaris line stallions in modern pedigrees and a definite decrease in the Nonphalaris lines. Back in 1984 thru 1987 very few of the starters had more than 4 Phalaris line stallions in their 4 th generation. From 1984 to 1987 there were only 2 BC Classic starters with 5 or more Phalaris male lines in the 4th generation: Desert Wine in 1984 and Chiefs Crown in 1985. So, in the first 4 years of the BC Classic the percent of starters with 5 or more Phalaris lines in their 4th generation was a meager 7% or so. In the last 6 years around 45% of the starters in the BC Classic have 5 or more Phalaris stallions in their 4th generation. Last year alone there were 8 Classic starters who had 5 or more Phalaris stallions in their 4th generation. The breed has changed big time, no one can doubt that.
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louis finochio
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the breed has changed
Louis: From my study of the Phalaris lines in the 4th generation it seems that the major horses even today usually have a good balance of Phalaris with Nonphalaris stallions in their 4th generation. Most of the HOY and BC Classic champions have only 3 or 4 Phalaris line stallions in their 4th generation and in the last 22 years 11 of the BC Classic winners had 4 Phalaris stallions and 4 Nonphalaris stallions in their 4th generation-- which indicates a good blend of speed and stamina by way of outcrossing. Of the other BC Classic winners I found 7 that had 3 Phalaris stallions and 5 Nonphalaris stallions in their 4th generation and also found 2 winners with only 2 Phalaris lines and 6 Nonphalaris lines and 1 winner with only 1 Phalaris line (Proud truth) and only 1 winner with 5 lines to Phalaris (AP Indy).
Times have changed big time and breeders are preferring the Phalaris stallions. No doubt the Phalaris lines will continue to increase and the Nonphalaris lines will probably continue to decrease. In 20 years the majority of horses will probably have 7 or 8 Phalaris line stallions in their 4th generation.
Times have changed big time and breeders are preferring the Phalaris stallions. No doubt the Phalaris lines will continue to increase and the Nonphalaris lines will probably continue to decrease. In 20 years the majority of horses will probably have 7 or 8 Phalaris line stallions in their 4th generation.
It sounds like the only way to save the thoroughbred is to open the book and try to bring in some sound outcrosses with good underpinning and good stout legs. The finnhorse might be a good choice if the type was restricted. I believe they are considered the fastest cold-blooded horse. Surely would help the TB temperment too. Its a shame that folks like Afleet Alex will never get to see real thoroughbreds run like to good ole days. Sometimes my stomach turns over just thinking about it.
Maybe some of the tracks can be converted into Nascar tracks after they close. I just dont think there are enough Non-phalaris animals out there for the breed to survive. Smart breeders will start selling their stock while they can before the market crashes.
The Jockey Club must see what's going on. I don't understand why nothing is being done about it.
Maybe some of the tracks can be converted into Nascar tracks after they close. I just dont think there are enough Non-phalaris animals out there for the breed to survive. Smart breeders will start selling their stock while they can before the market crashes.
The Jockey Club must see what's going on. I don't understand why nothing is being done about it.
I don't see any difference between today's discussion of Phalaris overcrowding than prior generations' inbreeding patterns. Think of Teddy and St. Simon, for instance. It is and was quite common to see multiple lines of each of them through sons and daughters, and so now with Phalaris's descendants through Sickle, Nearco, Pharamond. We no longer think of the total number of crosses of St. Simon, as his generation gets more distant.
The pendulum swings from speed to stamina and back again to varying degrees. And successful outcrosses will also be developed just as in the past through those varying sons of Phalaris and other non-Phalaris ancestors, through female and male lines.
People have always lamented poor breeding choices based on money rather than true racing quality. But there will always be leaders of countries and business who have the money and foresight to preserve some great genetic pools in their private stables, that can be drawn from in future years. One of the many reasons it's called "the Sport of Kings".
The pendulum swings from speed to stamina and back again to varying degrees. And successful outcrosses will also be developed just as in the past through those varying sons of Phalaris and other non-Phalaris ancestors, through female and male lines.
People have always lamented poor breeding choices based on money rather than true racing quality. But there will always be leaders of countries and business who have the money and foresight to preserve some great genetic pools in their private stables, that can be drawn from in future years. One of the many reasons it's called "the Sport of Kings".
Rocking H
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louis finochio
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Henthorn: I agree with your post, but I will make a statement about the generation gap.
The great leading breeders of the past have passed on and the new generation of breeders that were not here when those leading breeders were making their mark, dont have a clue how to breed a sound TB.
Fashion is guiding their matings, not soundness. When the buyers demand soundness and will not pay those $$ for those unsound TB, the breeders will have to put fashion on the back burner and breed for soundness.
The great leading breeders of the past have passed on and the new generation of breeders that were not here when those leading breeders were making their mark, dont have a clue how to breed a sound TB.
Fashion is guiding their matings, not soundness. When the buyers demand soundness and will not pay those $$ for those unsound TB, the breeders will have to put fashion on the back burner and breed for soundness.
Those without sin cast the first stone.
Louis Finochio
Louis Finochio
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Shammy Davis
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Stancaris wrote:
Be specific. How has the TB changed in last 22 years? Phenotype? Size? Weight? Conformation? Gait? What are the specific lethal/disabling genetic qualities that are being passed forward that are the basis for your premise? What are your specific complaints or observations that have brought you to your conclusions? If there are lethal/disabling genetic qualities that you base your premise on, please identify them. What are your specific authoritative sources?
I'm an avid reader, particularly regarding the Thoroughbred. The American Stud was opened in 1878 or there abouts and I'd be interested to know why in last 22 years you have identified significant changes in the breed, while most notable equine writers throughout history have not.
I'm perfectly willing to be convinced if you have some substance to your argument, but you have not in this thread or any other thread that I'm aware provided any basis for your conclusions. You have identified a specific race run over a few years. My recollection is that 35K foals, on average, are born in NA annually. Even with 20 horses in the field of that race, assuming that they are all the same age and I give you the benefit of the doubt that you have 10 races/years to quantify your assumptions, I figure (doing this in my head
) your sample is about .0006%. Not much of a sample to base your claim on.
There are few among us who dispute that Phalaris is a significant reality for today's TB. That reality is only that he is present in a number of lines leading to today's TB. But, with that in mind, you need to connect the dots that support your statements. I'm sure there are those on this board who are very interested if you have substantive to say. Otherwise, you have once again started a "dead end" thread.
Even over the last 22 years the breed has changed big time. And we can see that change by simply looking only at the 8 stallions in a horse's 4th generation.
Be specific. How has the TB changed in last 22 years? Phenotype? Size? Weight? Conformation? Gait? What are the specific lethal/disabling genetic qualities that are being passed forward that are the basis for your premise? What are your specific complaints or observations that have brought you to your conclusions? If there are lethal/disabling genetic qualities that you base your premise on, please identify them. What are your specific authoritative sources?
I'm an avid reader, particularly regarding the Thoroughbred. The American Stud was opened in 1878 or there abouts and I'd be interested to know why in last 22 years you have identified significant changes in the breed, while most notable equine writers throughout history have not.
I'm perfectly willing to be convinced if you have some substance to your argument, but you have not in this thread or any other thread that I'm aware provided any basis for your conclusions. You have identified a specific race run over a few years. My recollection is that 35K foals, on average, are born in NA annually. Even with 20 horses in the field of that race, assuming that they are all the same age and I give you the benefit of the doubt that you have 10 races/years to quantify your assumptions, I figure (doing this in my head
) your sample is about .0006%. Not much of a sample to base your claim on.
There are few among us who dispute that Phalaris is a significant reality for today's TB. That reality is only that he is present in a number of lines leading to today's TB. But, with that in mind, you need to connect the dots that support your statements. I'm sure there are those on this board who are very interested if you have substantive to say. Otherwise, you have once again started a "dead end" thread.
the breed has changed significantly
Shammy: If you read my post that started this thread you will see that nowhere did I say that there is any lethal genetic trait being transmitted. Nowhere in my above post did I say that Phalaris is causing breakdowns in the modern horse. Nowhere did I say that Phalaris lines are detrimental to the quality of today's racehorse. You read into that something I did not post.
I looked at the 8 stallions in the pedigrees of all the BC Classic starters from 1984-1987 and then again from 1999-2005. There is a big difference in the appearance of Phalaris line stallions in recent years as compared to 1984-1987. In fact the difference is as follows: In the first 4 years (1984-1987) ONLY 7% of the Classic starters had 5 or more Phalaris line stallions in its 4th generation. In the last 6 years (2000-2005) that frequency has grown to around 45% of the starters with 5 or more Phalaris stallion lines in its 4th generation.
I concluded that the breed has changed big time in regards to what lines began appearing more frequently in a horse's 4th generation. The Phalaris lines have increased and the Nonphalaris lines have decreased significantly. The same thing can be seen in the Kentucky Derby and probably most of the big races run in America and probably the horses running today with those of say 25 years ago.
The breed has changed big time with regards to what stallion lines appear in the modern horse as compared to what lines appeared in the horse of even 22 years ago and this is not just a phenomenon found in the BC Classic. It is a pattern found in the modern thoroughbred.
Once again, my post never said that Phalaris lines are lethal or genetically inferior or a cause of breakdowns. The modern race horse is filled with Phalaris lines. Is it a good thing or a bad thing? My original post on this thread never mentioned anything regarding whether the increased frequency of Phalaris is good or bad.
I looked at the 8 stallions in the pedigrees of all the BC Classic starters from 1984-1987 and then again from 1999-2005. There is a big difference in the appearance of Phalaris line stallions in recent years as compared to 1984-1987. In fact the difference is as follows: In the first 4 years (1984-1987) ONLY 7% of the Classic starters had 5 or more Phalaris line stallions in its 4th generation. In the last 6 years (2000-2005) that frequency has grown to around 45% of the starters with 5 or more Phalaris stallion lines in its 4th generation.
I concluded that the breed has changed big time in regards to what lines began appearing more frequently in a horse's 4th generation. The Phalaris lines have increased and the Nonphalaris lines have decreased significantly. The same thing can be seen in the Kentucky Derby and probably most of the big races run in America and probably the horses running today with those of say 25 years ago.
The breed has changed big time with regards to what stallion lines appear in the modern horse as compared to what lines appeared in the horse of even 22 years ago and this is not just a phenomenon found in the BC Classic. It is a pattern found in the modern thoroughbred.
Once again, my post never said that Phalaris lines are lethal or genetically inferior or a cause of breakdowns. The modern race horse is filled with Phalaris lines. Is it a good thing or a bad thing? My original post on this thread never mentioned anything regarding whether the increased frequency of Phalaris is good or bad.
Re: the breed has changed significantly
stancaris wrote:Once again, my post never said that Phalaris lines are lethal or genetically inferior or a cause of breakdowns. The modern race horse is filled with Phalaris lines. Is it a good thing or a bad thing? My original post on this thread never mentioned anything regarding whether the increased frequency of Phalaris is good or bad.
It is good to know that all the efforts of forum members were not lost on you. It is very hard especially in a public forum to change your opinion from one you believed so strongly before. I would be interested to know what specifically changed your mind.
JonR
the breed has changed
I began to question my original thought about soundness. What is soundness? Is the general notion that the breed today is unsound really a sound notion? Sounds good but then again maybe its just a tinkling symbol of the times. Is the racehorse today as sound as it was 30 years ago when the great Triple Crown winners--Affirmed, Secreatariat and Seattle Slew graced the American racing scene? In my opinion it is not as sound but like most of the posters here said---I have no substantial proof to support that idea, let alone that the Phalaris sire line is responsible for its deterioration and let alone what does unsound mean to begin with.
Some years ago I did a study on the Kentucky Derby regarding broodlines and found that the Raise A Native broodline never got a Derby winner whereas the Raise A Native sire line was getting Derby winners like clockwork. I concluded that the RAN broodline was somehow a detriment and always eliminated those horses from consideration. Then I did another study and found that those horses with the RAN broodline that ran a fast final quarter mile in a 9 furlong prep race did rather well in the Derby and their impact value to place was actually better than expected statistically. I did some further thinking and thought it was not the RAN broodline that was the negative but the inability of the vast majority of RAN broodline horses entered in the Derby to run a fast final quarter mile in a prep race that was the real detriment. I do not remember the exact figures but it was something like 11 horses thru history that had the RAN broodline and also ran a fast final quarter of 25 1/5 seconds or less in a 9 furlong prep and from these 11 horses 3 of them ran second in the Derby. If a RAN broodline horse ran a fast final quarter in a prep race his chances of running second in the Derby were greatly increased. Hence, Barbaro, the first RAN broodline horse to actually win the roses in the history of the event--and he ran a 25 1/5 final quarter in the Fla Derby, a major prep for the roses which indicated that 10 furlongs was within his reach. I concluded that its not the RAN in the horse that prevents him from winning the roses, its the RUN on the track in a prep race that is a much better indicator. Just because a horse has RAN on the wrong side does not mean he cannot RUN fast enough to wear the roses or for that matter even become a HOY like Mineshaft.
There will be more Derby winners in the future with RAN on the broodline. It is not the kiss of death as it appeared to be many years ago. Further research indicated that to me.
There will be more horses filled with Phalaris lines in the future. Some, like the outstanding Bernardini, may even become champions. Only further research can prove or disprove the idea that the breed is sound or unsound. Hopefully, this post sounds good.
Some years ago I did a study on the Kentucky Derby regarding broodlines and found that the Raise A Native broodline never got a Derby winner whereas the Raise A Native sire line was getting Derby winners like clockwork. I concluded that the RAN broodline was somehow a detriment and always eliminated those horses from consideration. Then I did another study and found that those horses with the RAN broodline that ran a fast final quarter mile in a 9 furlong prep race did rather well in the Derby and their impact value to place was actually better than expected statistically. I did some further thinking and thought it was not the RAN broodline that was the negative but the inability of the vast majority of RAN broodline horses entered in the Derby to run a fast final quarter mile in a prep race that was the real detriment. I do not remember the exact figures but it was something like 11 horses thru history that had the RAN broodline and also ran a fast final quarter of 25 1/5 seconds or less in a 9 furlong prep and from these 11 horses 3 of them ran second in the Derby. If a RAN broodline horse ran a fast final quarter in a prep race his chances of running second in the Derby were greatly increased. Hence, Barbaro, the first RAN broodline horse to actually win the roses in the history of the event--and he ran a 25 1/5 final quarter in the Fla Derby, a major prep for the roses which indicated that 10 furlongs was within his reach. I concluded that its not the RAN in the horse that prevents him from winning the roses, its the RUN on the track in a prep race that is a much better indicator. Just because a horse has RAN on the wrong side does not mean he cannot RUN fast enough to wear the roses or for that matter even become a HOY like Mineshaft.
There will be more Derby winners in the future with RAN on the broodline. It is not the kiss of death as it appeared to be many years ago. Further research indicated that to me.
There will be more horses filled with Phalaris lines in the future. Some, like the outstanding Bernardini, may even become champions. Only further research can prove or disprove the idea that the breed is sound or unsound. Hopefully, this post sounds good.
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vineyridge
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It's not that new--Phalaris all over, that is.
My old guy (Easter Spy (http://www.pedigreequery.com/easter+spy)) is 22, raced through age 5 without much success, and is Phalaris line on top in four of four grandparents. None of the mares in the GGP (3rd? 4th?) generation were Phalaris line. Duncan left racing to show as a hunter/jumper.
After that he was a foxhunting whipper-in horse for seven years, then sold to me because the stopping and turning and racing off on asphalt was bad for his knees. I hunted him for five years without him ever coming back lame. He had a tendon injury after the summer layoff, so he was given a well earned retirement last year. I'm thinking of bringing him back to ride third flight (non galloping and non jumping) for this year because he is so bored and looks so old without his muscle.
My old guy (Easter Spy (http://www.pedigreequery.com/easter+spy)) is 22, raced through age 5 without much success, and is Phalaris line on top in four of four grandparents. None of the mares in the GGP (3rd? 4th?) generation were Phalaris line. Duncan left racing to show as a hunter/jumper.
After that he was a foxhunting whipper-in horse for seven years, then sold to me because the stopping and turning and racing off on asphalt was bad for his knees. I hunted him for five years without him ever coming back lame. He had a tendon injury after the summer layoff, so he was given a well earned retirement last year. I'm thinking of bringing him back to ride third flight (non galloping and non jumping) for this year because he is so bored and looks so old without his muscle.
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Shammy Davis
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Stancaris: Your response is reasonable. Considering the other threads where Phalaris is mentioned, I may have read into your post something that was not there. I'm not sure that I agree that the breed has changed that much. Your sample is clearly miniscule compared the number of horses raced each year or for the period time you describe.
I, too, have considered the predominance of Phalaris throughout the breed and the fact that other stallion lines are becoming extinct. From a production standpoint, this could clearly be a problem as inbreeding with any depth of a certain pedigree can and will cause infertility throughout at a certain point. Please note, I did not say unsoundness.
No one has offered up the idea of outcrossing to another breed such as the TB standard bearer, the Arabian. At some point, I think the JC will be forced to open the stud book to that opportunity.
As inbreeding stamps a breed with "predicitability, at a certain point, it is proven that production rates go down. The idea of breeding to other TB sire lines does not give the breed the hybrid vigor it will ultimately need to survive. Phalaris is not the basis for future failures of the breed as some contend. Man is.
I, too, have considered the predominance of Phalaris throughout the breed and the fact that other stallion lines are becoming extinct. From a production standpoint, this could clearly be a problem as inbreeding with any depth of a certain pedigree can and will cause infertility throughout at a certain point. Please note, I did not say unsoundness.
No one has offered up the idea of outcrossing to another breed such as the TB standard bearer, the Arabian. At some point, I think the JC will be forced to open the stud book to that opportunity.
As inbreeding stamps a breed with "predicitability, at a certain point, it is proven that production rates go down. The idea of breeding to other TB sire lines does not give the breed the hybrid vigor it will ultimately need to survive. Phalaris is not the basis for future failures of the breed as some contend. Man is.