Observations on Thoroughbred Evolution

Whirlaway · Postby **Whirlaway** » Mon Nov 13, 2006 9:31 pm

A must read article from the sharpest mind in the business. Mr. Louis F., I believe you may find this article particularly interesting.

http://www.chef-de-race.com/articles/evolution_of_bloodlines.htm

angelsprite · Postby **angelsprite** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 9:27 am

Whirlaway,
I would like to thank you for posting that article. In my particular end of this business, often I hear people say, "But that isn't listed as a good nick." I try to explain to them that there are many opinions as to what constitutes a "nick", that genetic material doesn't read lists before crossing over or recombining, and that breeding Thoroughbreds involves considerations of factors that may not wait on the lists, or bloodstock agents to notice. There are exceptionally pronounced patterns in the pedigrees of great horses. I believe Tesio understood these patterns. He also understood that you can't look at one breeding as the ultimate goal. You have to look beyond that one breeding, to the next possible and the next, to build those great horses. Trying to reduce what the successful breeders of the past did down to one mating for a sale baby is simply impossible. The great breeders built on their successes. Some horses had to be bred for breeding, even though the mating might not produce an animal who would perform exceptionally well on the track. Today's Thoroughbred market is different, but we can see by the industry poll, that there are many people breeding for the track. That's encouraging, because that's how great horses have been produced in the past. People breeding to race, instead of breeding to sell, have the option of keeping their horses for the breeding shed and moving toward a goal in their breeding program. People breeding for the sales can capitolize on these carefully bred horses by picking up a broodmare here and there, when one is sold to make way for the next generation. I'm glad you put up the link.

Whirlaway · Postby **Whirlaway** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 5:30 pm

You're quite welcome, anglesprite.

Do tell us, if you had the pick of sire and mare, the ones you would choose.

louis finochio · Postby **louis finochio** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 7:42 pm

Thanks Whirlaway for sharing. I enjoyed the P-Np to the max. I hope in the years to come these NP sire lines have a resurection to bring back the soundness in the breed. Peace be with you Louis.

angelsprite · Postby **angelsprite** » Wed Nov 15, 2006 5:40 pm

Whirlaway, I was offered the lease on a mare for this upcoming season who is named Shroud Remark, by Storm Bird, and I plan to breed her to my son of Fast Play named Daring Messenger. I really hope I get to do that. It's an awesome breeding if it happens. Very good for my boy.
I also have a mare in foal to Tinner's Way. She is by Marsayas out of Tarpoon, by Vaguely Noble. She is Mary's Flower.
So, I couldn't really pick one that I'm not working on or don't have cooking, because I'm pretty excited about those and can't even think of anything else.
There is one gelding I'm doing a pedigree analysis on though that you just have to see. Snifter's Spirit. He will hopefully race this weekend. He's not mine, but take a look at the cross. I can't put up the analysis without permission, because it's private, but it's an elegant cross. I think Louis will like it alot!

Whirlaway · Postby **Whirlaway** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 1:41 am

Sprite,

Best of racing luck w/Snifter's Spirit and I hope the best for those that you've got cookin'. It's a tough game angel, but I've got that feelin' you're a winner. Do keep us posted on Snifter.

1941

angelsprite · Postby **angelsprite** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 6:42 am

Whirlaway,
Thanks. I really like the way this boy is bred.
Are there any horses you are following right now, or cooking, or planning to cook in the upcoming season? What's your pick?

geowarrior · Postby **geowarrior** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 8:41 am

I haven't had a chance to read the article yet, but look forward to it. I just read several articles by (I've forgotten her name) who defines the Reines de Courses. One of her articles was about the Broad Brush sire line (I'll post the web link when I get more time). While it looks as though Include is off to an excellent start as far as carrying on that sire line goes, my interest is in a horse called Dr. Litin by Broad Brush out of Winning Colors, who was described as probably the best mare Broad Brush ever saw. Dr. Litin was bought as a yearling (I think) for $2.5 million. He was not raced at 2 (don't know why) and he raced three times in his three year old career. I had read on another thread that his racing career was mismanaged. I was researching Winning Colors' offspring and in the course of that I saw Dr. Litin's race record. His career consisted of three MSW's within a single month. The first was 7f, the second was 10 days later and was I think about a mile, and the third was two weeks after that at an even longer distance. All the races were in July on the rock hard dirt at Hollywood Park and Del Mar. Even if he was three, that's a punishing schedule for the legs of a young and valuable horse.

Dr. Litin was supposedly retired with a minor suspensory ligament injury, and now he stands at stud in Oregon for a 2007 fee of $500. I have not seen him in person but in his photo he is a beautiful grey who resembles Winning Colors more than Broad Brush. I'm not sure, given that harsh schedule of races, that he really was given a chance at the racetrack, and so if I had time and more money than I do, I'd like to find inexpensive mares with appropriate pedigrees (not easy as Dr. Litin is very much of an outcross), and breed to race with an ultimate view to finding a way to continue the line through him. I feel he ought to be given a chance to make his contribution to continuing the Broad Brush sire line, with an additional incentive being that Winning Colors' best winners and producer are overseas, however Dr. Litin stands at a farm which has many stallions, so he seems to be getting lost in the shuffle. The fact that I don't have funds to carry out this idea isn't stopping me from researching the topic though so that would be what I'm 'working on'.

Timber · Postby **Timber** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 11:44 am

Roman is also into politics?

louis finochio · Postby **louis finochio** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 7:42 pm

Angelsprite: Snifter's Spirit has the same cross in reverse that produced Ghostzapper, Toussoud, Smarty Jones, Native Dancer, and Bold Ruler.

I like SS pedigree, as it has a balance of sire lines. Good Luck with SS and may he be one of the ones. Louis.

angelsprite · Postby **angelsprite** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 9:29 pm

Louis,
Thank you, I'm glad you like the cross. It's looks like sheer brilliance to me. Every representative in linebreeding is either a champion, a leading sire, or both, or champion mare, or influential producing mare. His analysis is gorgeous! He's one of my research horses and one of his connections ordered the analysis for him. I wish he was MY HORSE, but he's not.

He is descended from dam family 5 and carries the same mtDNA haplotype that Native Dancer carried. A lot of good things come together for this horse.
He races Sunday night, 8:54 pm (central time) at SHRP in a TX Bred Maiden, going only 5 and a half, which I think he should be going 6 or 7, even in his first race. Also, his analysis screams TURF, but he should run well on both dirt and turf.
I'm going out there to watch the race. If you guys can catch it on the puter, or TVG, he will have Bobby Walker Jr up. A good jock around here. And he's in Brett Calhoun's barn, and Brett's a winning trainer.
I'm very hopeful 5 and a half won't be too short for him. This horse has been working bullet after bullet and just did a bullet at 6F. Pretty sure he was 1 out of 7 that morning. So he ought to be fit for 5 and a half, I would think, but he's coming out of the 12 slot. It will keep him out of traffic anyway.
We're rooting for him. I'm meeting up with the lady who had the analysis done. She's flying in from Washington to watch the race. So, you can imagine it's pretty exciting for everyone who has anything at all to do with this boy. I can't wait till Sunday. Captain Countdown is getting pretty popular around here. His first babies hit the tracks in TX and Louisiana and started winning right off the bat. We'll be screaming "GO SPIRIT!" the whole time.
Win, lose, or draw, it's going to be a lot of fun.
Sorry, I don't mean to hijack the thread. :oops:

Whirlaway · Postby **Whirlaway** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 10:20 pm

Wow, your enthusiasm is particularly contagious young lady and reading your posts inspires me.

Now w/respect to Snifter, looks like he's bred for speed and the 5.5fl should be a great start for him. Do you have an average winning distance (AWD) for the progeny of Captian Countdown, Snifter and Naevus? Those numbers would be intersting to know. Now, I am far from an expert here and I don't know how the race track is configured, but the 12 spot can be problematic. Should he not win his first, well that'll be just fine, as he will garner some greatly needed racing experience. In the first, it's not if he wins the race but what he learns from the racing experience. He should improve next out.

Best of luck darlin' and do trust me, should they show the race on TVG I'll be watchin and I'll be sending you a couple of shout outs!

~

I've got nothin' cookin' and I'm just a fan.
From what I've read Street Sense ran like no other two-year-old in the past twenty or so years and he is one to watch. Lookin' for a Triple Crown Champion ...

angelsprite · Postby **angelsprite** » Fri Nov 17, 2006 12:09 am

Whirlaway,
Anyone who looked at the 5 generation pedigree would assume he was a speed horse because of Naevus and Mr. Prospector. The fact is, his linebreeding on both sides is balanced between speed to classic and classic and beyond. His sire is bred that way too. I did a promo analysis for Captain Countdown. AWD for The Captain was 6.5 to 9.5F. His progeny seem to be doing the same thing, when they get the chance. We just don't have many races down here over 5.5F. That's the racing secretary's favorite distance.
The dam was a middle distance horse.
Also, if you haven't seen Captain Countdown, he's a beautiful gray.
I'm just hoping it goes well. If Spirit gets a good jump and kicks into gear right away, he should have the stamina to put the hammer down all the way. He just has to get around all those horses at the break.

angelsprite · Postby **angelsprite** » Fri Nov 17, 2006 11:46 am

Whirlaway,
by the way, I wasn't trying to be argumentative at all.
Man! It's taking forever to get to Sunday.

Whirlaway · Postby **Whirlaway** » Fri Nov 17, 2006 8:21 pm

Sunday will come. Of course, never soon enough.

I believe I saw that the races in TX will be on HRTV. If so, as I said, I'll be hollering for your boy.

W/respect to his stamina and the AWD of the sons and daughters of CCountdown: How many in the sample size? At which distance do they win? Taking a look at the Dosage Profile of SS, he looks to be a speedy one. Any instructions for the jockey? I say send him, if he clears the inside pack and gets the half in a resonable time, his bullet works should get him to the finish. This one oughta be fun to watch. Best of racin luck and I am with you!

How has the outside been doing at the track?