Raffle

[Douglas Brown]

I just purchased a 13 year-old mare named Raffle by Polish Numbers out of Better To Be Lucky by Roberto (Hip # 204 at Fasig-Tipton December Midlantic). She is in foal to Domestic Dispute and is due March 20th.

Any ideas on a possible mate? We live in Maryland.

[kimberley mine]

If you plan to race the foal yourself, take a good hard look at Ameri Valay. Pedigree-wise, he carries Turn-To via Cyane on his dam's side. Aside from Turn-To being an excellent linebreeding target, Polish Numbers has quite a few good winners/stakes winners from daughters of Cyane's son Smarten. Ameri Valay himself has several of his best runners from the Turn-To line. Value-wise, he stands for $2500 and gets a high percentage of winners to runners.

Another option is Meadow Monster, if you are willing to ship to West Virginia. He sired a stakes-placed horse out of your mare's first dam. I don't know the WV rules, but if you can get breeders bonuses for breeding to him, so much the better.

[henthorn]

Your mare's ancestress Numbered Account invites some inbreeding via Not for Love, Vision and Verse, Mutakddim. Another nice cross is with Out of Place, which linebreeds Turn-To, Swaps and Buckpasser, with no added Northern Dancer from the male line. Lots of nice choices for Raffle; good buy!

[Douglas Brown]

Thanks for the suggestions. The foal Raffle is carrying (by Domestic Dispute) is very definitely destined for the sales ring. I am still not sure what my intention will be for her next foal. I am a very small breeder (two mares) and, depending on whether they both get in foal, will determine whether their future foals are to be sold or raced. Of course, the main decision-maker as to their future is the two-year-old I have that is in training to be a racehorse. If she is successful and can cover her own expenses at the track, I would be more inclined to keep one of the foals as a racing prospect. If the 2yo, doesn't turn out to be a good racehorse, all of the foals (and probably at least one of the dams will be sold as well). I say this as a means of stating my breeding objective: a combination race/sale prospect.

I know that is too vague for a lot of people but, unfortunately, it is the bane of small breeders. I am decidedly against breeding solely for the commercial market because I want to breed an outstanding racehorse but at the same time, my finances are such that I may not be able to race the product of my breeding so the foal has to be at least a little bit marketable. If my 2yo were to earn enough money that I could afford to race with no matter of the commercial market, I wouldn't care if the stallion didn't sell well, as long as he produced good racehorses.

Such is the case with Ameri Valay. I personally think he is one of the most under-rated stallions in the mid-Atlantic. He seems to produce good, hard-knocking racehorses but he does not sell well. He is also on the smallish side (height) and Raffle is probably 15.2-15.3 so that concerns me (from a sales, not a racing standpoint). Raffle will foal at Shamrock Farms (where Ameri Valay stands) so maybe he'll jump the fence and throw all of my plans out the window.

I did the hypo-mating of Raffle with Not For Love and I really like it, but unfortunately, I cannot afford him. I love Mutakddim (my other mare is by him) and the hypo-mating with Vision and Verse looks interesting but, for personal reasons which I will not relate here, it will be a cold day in hell before John Sikura (Hill 'n Dale) gets any of my business.

I had never looked at Out of Place before and that is a very interesting mating with Raffle! I have read Clive Harper's books on breeding and look at his "colt/filly factors" when I am comparing pedigrees and the cross of Out of Place with Raffle gets 0 colt and 5 filly factors and I have rarely seen four filly factors but never five. I may need to change my plans and consider sending her to Kentucky.

[pembroke]

Please consider recruiting some professional assistance from my friend......www.buildabetterracehorse.com He is really very good and reasonable and very successful! AND, you will hear and learn things from him that you will never pick up on your own. He will talk pedigrees and nicks with you all day long!

[leveeguy]

Doug,
I don't know if you've looked at Siphon, but he might be able to add the commercial element you're interested in.

I believe he had a yearling go for $40,000 at Timonium this fall, and had two sell for more than $250,000 at Keeneland. Of course, they were from mares he was bred to before he moved to Pa. ...

Anyway, best of luck with your new mare. She seems like a great addition for your farm.

[leveeguy]

I'm going to have to retract that part about the high-price yearlings at Keeneland. I just looked at his auction results online, and I didn't see anything close to that. My memory must be playing tricks on me.

My apologies.

[KBEquine]

If you like Not For Love, consider his son, Duckhorn, standing at Xanthus Farm in Pennsylvania. His first foal crop will hit the track in 2007.

The downside is he's currently not 'commercial' being a new regional sire with nothing yet running.

The upside is all the foals I've seen are pretty nice.

If you're looking for linebred Turn-To, consider our horse that my husband posts about -- Mountain Top, grandson of Cox's Ridge [by Best Turn by Turn-To] out of Turning Top by Turn to Mars by Turn To]. However again, the downside is he's a new regional sire, so not commercial like the established stallions.

[Having said all that -- I may try the buildabetterracehorse.com site myself, with one of our mares who doesn't match our stallions especially well.]

[Keith]

Have you considered Chief Seattle? At $5,000 he offers lots of value. With this cross you would line breed on
Glamour 5x5
Nearctic 4x5x5
Hail To Reason 4x5

I would also consider a Mr. Prospector line stud for your mare

Have you considered Love Of Money a son of Not For Love standing at Northview Stallion Station. He did win the Pennsylvania Derby His 2007 stud fee is $3,000

It would give you a 3x4 cross to Numbered Account and a 4x4x4 cross to Northern Dancer.

Keith

[Douglas Brown]

Gosh, these are some interesting matings. It is a good thing she isn't due until March.