First Samurai's fee announced ($40,000)

[madelyn]

Oh, I didn't mean "good luck" to be taken as sarcasm. As for the brevity, well I've actually been battling for a day with a malicious piece of spyware called HQVideoCodec, which my son must have installed on my desktop computer believing its hype that it would improve video performance for computer games.. where in fact, it collects and transmits any passwords stored, and acts as a monitor (it allows activity to be monitored). Anyhow I finally got rid of it, and am now mopping up our network. Thank heavens for AIX, my server is impervious to Windows perverts, and that is where the important stuff is stored.

I wish you success.. hopefully you will achieve an offspring faster than your sock

Yes I know about the stallion shareholders. But the numbers are still, if not terrifying, at least daunting.

[Tomtheterrapin]

Thank you all for your well wishes and your insights.

Just one small rebuttal, while I agree 100% that Coolmore is the king of spin, I do not believe that to be the case with Bernie Sams at Claiborne. His reputation speaks for itself, when he says his stallion will breed to a max of 120, that ends up being the case. I also believe him because I think that in today's age of commercial breeding (and I'm guilty of being caught up in it myself), I think a hot freshman sire is what everyone is looking for (me included). I went through it last year with this mare. We had expected to run her as a 4-yr old, but in a stakes race in the early part of '06 she came up with chips in her ankle. So, we decided the best thing was to retire her and breed her. She is a GSW Mare, so we thought a "hot" freshman sire would be the way to go.

I know people can blow smoke up the "you know where," but all I heard when I knocked on each door in Feb/March was "I'm sorry, I love your mare, but he is booked full...come back early in the fall for '07." So, when FS hit the books, I do not doubt that he got 300 or hell, even 400 applications within a week, because he is what a lot of commercial breeders will be looking for and if he is only going to breed to 120 mares, you better get in line early.

The assessment of GC may very well be on the money, but he is getting a lot of top mares each and every year, which, in itself will help perpetuate his reputation, whether it is rightfully deserved or not. Breeding to 200 (191 in 2006) mares per year will also keep him at the top of the money list. While I have seen FS in person and was very impressed, I have never seen GC, so I could never give an honest opinion of him and I have a hard time with photos. So, I'll take your word for it. As in all things, time will tell.

[FOS]

hi Tomtheterrapin

Just one small rebuttal, while I agree 100% that Coolmore is the king of spin, I do not believe that to be the case with Bernie Sams at Claiborne.

Maybe not the king of spin...but certainly a Claiborne loyalist. Isn't it fair to say that Bernie S is today committed to selling services to Claiborne stallions? The same might be said about his tenure at Gainesway...when he was there he was loyal and committed to selling services to Gainesway stallions.

That said, asking his opinion re First Samurai is arguably not unlike asking a Ford dealer what he thinks about his Ford products. And if you ask a Ford dealer if he believes his product is good value or whether or not he would recommend his product over a Dodge...or a Chevy, what do you expect he might say?

...when he says his stallion will breed to a max of 120, that ends up being the case.

I expect that 120+- is a realistic number...unless of course the stallion can't handle it (for whatever reason).

I also believe him because I think that in today's age of commercial breeding (and I'm guilty of being caught up in it myself), I think a hot freshman sire is what everyone is looking for (me included).

Maybe "everyone" (your word) is an overstatement...but certainly many are looking for offspring by a "hot" young stallion. That said...if the individual you offer by the so-called "hot freshman sire" (your words) is not the kind of individual that racing aficionados and/or buyers in general (including pinhookers in particular) find especially appealing and/or are unwilling to open-wide the wallet for...you might very well find yourself on the short end of the financial stick; and might even be hammered.

I know people can blow smoke up the "you know where," but all I heard when I knocked on each door in Feb/March was "I'm sorry, I love your mare, but he is booked full...

Arguably average mares (as defined/perceived by stallion managers/owners etc) might be flashed the sign, book full...but, I-love-her types (as defined/perceived by stallion managers/owners etc)) are known to miraculously be offered a contract to a stallion whose book might otherwise be described as full...even at Claiborne.

I do not doubt that he got 300 or hell, even 400 applications within a week...

Respectfully...I suggest that sounds like everybody's buddy Bernie talking. I ask (tongue in cheek of course) did his nose grow when he told you that? I call it the Pinochio affect.

...I have seen FS in person and was very impressed...

I don't believe it's a stretch to suggest that few if any can show a horse better than the Ashford crew. That said...for starters, I submit that FuPeg's neck naturally sets very high into his shoulder...too high for my taste. Very simply (for lack of a better description) he is naturally high-headed.

I say naturally high-headed knowing that when FuPeg was retired to Ashford...the crew IMMEDIATELY started to walk him often and extensively with a surcingle and draw reins. Why? An attempt to affect his head and neck-set...and, the public's perception of his conformation.

As in all things, time will tell.

Yes...time will tell, but (for now) I have doubts re First Samurai. I find him (especially at $40k) to be (All things considered) a serious roll of the dice.

I hope you roll snake eyes though...and cash a HUGE bet.

Respectfully

[TBLADY]

You know a good foundation in DRESSAGE would have helped....but then I;m sure with all of the money and all of their goals taking the time to put a few months of foundation in a big $ horse would be asking too much...so make a FAKE neck was easier after he was retired. I'm sorry but FuPeg is just UGLY! And you talk about over priced! OUCH! How many of his foals last yr really covered their stud fee at the sales?

Sorry not a Fupeg fan...never was never will be. I ahve always thought this horse was overrated as a stallion. Granted one hell of a racehorse...but not impressive as a sire. Just my opinion.

[Tomtheterrapin]

hi Tomtheterrapin

I hope you roll snake eyes though...and cash a HUGE bet.

Thanks, I appreciate that, and I hope so too.

[geowarrior]

Madelyn

I was interested in the study you referred to in your response to Sysonby. I watched a little bit of the Keeneland Sale on the Internet, and looking at the catalog pages and watching the bidding I could not understand in general why most horses sold for what they did. Many of the basic rules I thought I had learned here on the board about good catalog page on the dam's side etc. seemed to go out the window.

So I was wondering about the stallions which were not in your 70% group (who did poorly in relation to their stud fee), i.e. about the ones that did relatively well. Did they have anything in common? Did any of them strike you as good racing sires or were the good prices a matter of fashion?

[BenB]

tomtheterrapin:

I wish you very much luck with your decisions, but don,t trust someone
for the speak of the mouth or just having blue eyes.
When you,re having some 60K surplus of pocketmoney and don,t were to spend it else. The decision might give a lot of fun, otherwise a lesson for the future.
The 60k is nothing else than all the costs up to a two year old.
If only said not written that fs will only been breeding 120 I guarantee you
that when the season is running the number will be higher, if and only if
the intersts is so high as descriped by the 300 number.
This could be a flake too no one can check this out.
After 30 years with horses, and several parts of the field I only trust my own eyes

[Sysonby]

Madelyn

I was interested in the study you referred to in your response to Sysonby. I watched a little bit of the Keeneland Sale on the Internet, and looking at the catalog pages and watching the bidding I could not understand in general why most horses sold for what they did. Many of the basic rules I thought I had learned here on the board about good catalog page on the dam's side etc. seemed to go out the window.

So I was wondering about the stallions which were not in your 70% group (who did poorly in relation to their stud fee), i.e. about the ones that did relatively well. Did they have anything in common? Did any of them strike you as good racing sires or were the good prices a matter of fashion?

Catalog pages aren't as important as they were years ago. Buyers--and particularly pinhookers who are driving the market now--want a look and they want basically a clean scope and xrays--none of which you can see on a page.

Hope that helped...

[Sysonby]

Actually I think what Tom is doing in breeding to a brand new sire is a rational response to the current market. Most stallions fail to some degree or another and the proven ones are often overpriced. Breeders and buyers have responded to this by investing in the new sires before they have proven that they can fail. In their first year and in their first crop to race, stallions are like yearlings--they can be any kind. Also, like yearlings, they and their offspring may never again be worth as much as that moment in time.

Here's a run down of some of the 2005 and 2006 sales results of our freshman sires this year. Every one below except Officer and Johannesburg slipped this year in the ring--and some slipped, tripped and fell on their overhyped heinies. Now which crop would you want to be selling out of

Came Home ($40,000 fee)
2005---36 sold for $147,311
2006--48 sold for $84,046

Buddha ($15,000 fee)
2005--86 sold for $85,662
2006--63 sold for $41,575

Include ($12,500 fee)
2005--72 sold for $69,595
2006--33 sold for $63,015

E Dubai ($15,000 fee)
2005--30 sold for $80,067
2006--48 sold for $63,906

Jump Start ($7500 fee)

2005--52 sold for $39,148
2006--61 sold for $33,874

Officer ($12,500 fee)

2005--55 sold for $71,800
2006--60 sold for $74,188

Johannesburg ($30,000 fee)

2005--83 sold for $103,832
2006--74 sold for $143,395

[geowarrior]

Sysonby, thanks. Of course a clean scope and x-rays are important but I kind of assumed that was a given at most of the high prices I was bamboozled by. I was more wondering about the reasons for paying millions for yearlings by unraced mares vs. lesser amounts for those with good female families. Looks seem to be pretty important as far as I can see. I'll still be interested in the addition info from Madelyn's study if she cares to share.

[Tomtheterrapin]

Actually I think what Tom is doing in breeding to a brand new sire is a rational response to the current market.

Yes, absolutely...I admit I am shooting for a "commercial" type foal.

The point of the matter is I have a GSW mare who looks the part. She is big, strong, had stamina and speed on the track, is young (this will be her second foal...her first is in utero), and has excellent conformation (minor flaws, nothing's perfect). I went to an established stallion that gets runners and is also still very commercial her first season on a foal share. I felt this was the way to go to help get her established. I did try to get her to some of the freshmen sires of 2006, such as Speightstown, but we had a late start searching for a stallion, so we missed out on him and a couple of others. But I like who I ended up with.

So, yes, in 2007, I decided I would go for the gusto and try to hit it big. I liked what I saw of First Samurai at the track and I love his precocity and his race record. I agree that I probably paid a little more than what he may be worth. But I think I will have a Home Run here and I'll do well at the yearling sale with this combination. Well, I certainly hope so, lol.

[rudydee]

a NG season to First Samurai is being advertised for 57.5K at McCann's Bloodstock's website. Maybe Terrapin Tom was on to something!

[pokeyman]

I feel the same way about First Samurai as I do about Roman Ruler... take your mare and RUN THE OTHER WAY.

I actually have to diagree with you here. Sorry

Roman Ruler is a nice bet. I think pinhookers will love him and I do think he'll be a better sire on the track than FS.

Did you forget that Roman Ruler is a maternal half sibling to El Corredor?? Not too shabby...

[Rokeby Forever]

Is it just me, or do I see First Samurai more as a "breed to race" type sire that might sire a few good ones, as most "breed to race" sires do? At $40,000, I don't think he's at a "breed to race" price.

I think Claiborne is being much more reasonable with War Front. All things being equal, I see War Front as a better value.

[Pete]

Hi Folks,

Tomtheterriblepin (sic ), Madelyn has a mean bone (somewhere) in her body but scientists haven't yet located it.

Rokeby, what do War Front and First Samurai have in common other than being first year stallions?

The entire crop of new stallions for 2007 is overpriced. I don’t know of a single new stallion that I consider to be fairly priced using the past few years as a context.

Tom, your idea of going to a high profile, first year stallion is a good way to leverage the market's inappropriate desire for new blood. Chances are that First Samurai will have a lower stud fee when his first foals are running as 4yos but that doesn't really impact the foal that you'll be trying to breed and you might see some very good prices for his foals.

I was an under bidder for First Samurai’s dam, Freddie Frisson at Keeneland (@1998). She sold for $260,000 I believe. That gives me the credentials to speak about First Samurai. (hiccup).

First Samurai lacks depth and quality in his pedigree, certainly for a fee of $40,000. His dam, Freddie Frisson and her sister, Sky Blue Pink are the primary black type performers in his pedigree, not what is usually commercial in Kentucky and there are no sires, let alone notable ones on his page.

Dixieland Band as the sire of the dam of sires (6 spot in a pedigree) appears to have the same liabilities as his sire, Northern Dancer did and he was a notable failure in this regards. Certainly the first (real) chance that Dixieland Band has had in this capacity has been (to date) a notable failure in Monarchos.

The lack of pedigree doesn’t bother me very much. There’s no precedence of sires in the family and First Samurai is by far the best foal of his dam (a good indicator). I am bothered by the fact that Dixieland Band is his dam sire. I’ve always liked Dixieland Band’s potential as a broodmare sire (going back to the mid 1990’s) but I’ll need to see an impact sire that carries him in his pedigree (6 position).

Still for anyone who breeds to First Samurai this year they won’t have to worry about any of this because first year stallion foals sell in the vacuum of hype and hope.

Tom -may your First Samurai foal be a sales topper.

Regards,

Pete